还是惯例，2025年最后一天，先祝大家新年快乐，然后写点2026年高考的趋势预判。 趋势①：AI时代，专业不重要，但是专业又很重要，尤其未来想进体制内，央国企这些国家单位方向的，对专业和学历要求越来越重要。所以咱们一定要 要保专业。 趋势③：电气，电子信息热度会继续保持。机械，航空航天，能源动力类，材料类，尤其新材料方向。热度会继续加大。 趋势④：往年录取数据会失真，我们要参考，但是会受家庭报考保守的趋势去拉高分数，宁愿多浪费点也要保。另外今年就是大类专业拆分，拆分后会打破 原来的分数变化，冷门会下降会更多，热门会拉高，结果就是数据失真更严重。 趋势⑤：确定性方向报考，军校警校公费师范竞争会更大，哪怕是原来很苦的，比如航海类等。 趋势⑥：民办院校继续招不满，会出现降分征集的情况，如果你想走本科，家里条件还行，可以等征集。能上本科不一定读得到专科。 趋势②：计算机，医学专业热度会继续下降，但不代表没人报考。个别省份医学有捡漏机会。 趋势⑦：职业本科分数越来越高，尤其近两年从专科升上来的。很多都要500多分。 趋势⑧：行业院校竞争继续加大，不管是本科还是专科，要小心浪费分数也没保住专业。而行业院校行业专业才有优势 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid depreciation of various assets in China, particularly focusing on the real estate market, automobiles, luxury goods, and educational qualifications, predicting that these will continue to lose value in the coming years. Group 1: Real Estate - The domestic housing market has been in a long-term adjustment trend since 2022, with prices in second and third-tier cities declining first, followed by first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen [5] - The depreciation of second-hand housing is attributed to three main factors: the sluggish economy leading to stagnant or declining income, the loss of speculative interest in real estate, and a surge in second-hand housing listings indicating a lack of confidence in future price increases [5] - It is expected that the prices of second-hand homes will continue to decline into 2026, particularly in first-tier cities where a correction is anticipated [5] Group 2: Automobiles - The automobile market is experiencing rapid depreciation due to intense price competition among manufacturers, particularly with the entry of companies like Xiaomi and Huawei into the market [6] - The fast pace of technological advancement in the automotive industry is leading to older models being sold at discounted prices to clear inventory [6] - The market is also facing an oversupply of vehicles, with both traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles competing aggressively on price [6][8] Group 3: Luxury Goods - Luxury goods are predicted to experience significant depreciation, with prices of some high-end items dropping by over 20% [10] - The decline in luxury goods value is driven by reduced disposable income among middle-class families, leading to decreased demand for high-priced items [10] - The rise of counterfeit products that closely resemble genuine luxury items has also contributed to the depreciation, as consumers opt for cheaper alternatives [10] Group 4: Educational Qualifications - The value of educational qualifications is diminishing, with an increasing number of job postings requiring higher degrees, leading to an oversupply of graduates in the job market [12] - The rapid increase in the number of higher education institutions has resulted in a significant rise in the number of graduates, making degrees less valuable [12] - The article suggests that practical skills may become more valuable than formal educational qualifications in the job market [12]

Core Insights - The article discusses the challenges of setting and achieving learning goals at the beginning of a new year, emphasizing the psychological barriers that often lead to inaction despite the desire to learn [3][4]. Group 1: Learning Challenges - Many individuals experience a disconnect between their intentions to learn and their actual actions, often due to a psychological phenomenon where the brain feels a sense of accomplishment merely from setting goals [3]. - The concept of "false effort" is highlighted, where individuals may spend time on learning activities without genuine understanding or retention of knowledge [5]. Group 2: Effective Goal Setting - To effectively set learning goals, it is suggested to lower the initial barrier by starting with small, manageable tasks, such as dedicating just five minutes to reading [4]. - Immediate rewards for completing small tasks can enhance motivation and create a sense of achievement, similar to the instant gratification found in gaming [4]. Group 3: Understanding True Learning - True learning is defined by the ability to output knowledge, meaning one should be able to explain what they have learned to someone else [5]. - The learning process is described as a combination of input, connection, and output, where connecting new knowledge to existing understanding is crucial for retention [6]. Group 4: Perception of Educational Value - The article touches on the notion of "degree devaluation," where individuals feel that their educational qualifications are less valuable in the job market due to increasing demands for higher credentials [6]. - It distinguishes between the external value of degrees, which can fluctuate, and the internal value, which encompasses the skills and critical thinking developed through education [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the devaluation of intelligence and education in the context of AI transformation, suggesting that traditional educational qualifications may lose their value as AI becomes more prevalent in the workforce [4]. Group 1: Intelligence as a Service - The concept of "Intelligence as a Service" (IaaS) indicates that intelligence is no longer a privilege of human brains but can be accessed on demand, similar to utilities like electricity [6]. - AI's ability to perform tasks traditionally done by highly educated individuals leads to a significant devaluation of traditional educational qualifications, as knowledge becomes a common commodity [6][7]. - The demand for traditional white-collar jobs is declining, with a reported 22% decrease in positions that typically require higher education, particularly in finance, human resources, and administrative roles [7]. Group 2: Educational Inflation and Devaluation - In 2024, China's higher education gross enrollment rate reached 60.8%, with nearly 47 million students enrolled, indicating a saturation of the education market [10]. - The average starting salary for new graduates in first-tier cities is around 6,000 to 7,000 yuan, which is lower than many vocational roles, highlighting the "high investment, low return" phenomenon of education [11]. - The competition for higher education has intensified, with graduate school acceptance rates around 3.5:1 to 4:1, leading to an oversupply of graduates [12]. Group 3: Shifts in Employment Landscape - The trend of graduates from prestigious universities applying for lower-tier jobs reflects a shift in the value of education, where job stability and benefits are prioritized over traditional career paths [15][16]. - The increasing appeal of stable government jobs and lower-tier positions among elite graduates indicates a desire for job security in an uncertain economic environment [17]. - The phenomenon of highly educated individuals taking on low-skilled jobs illustrates the disconnect between educational qualifications and available high-value positions in the market [18]. Group 4: The Future of Education and Skills - The article posits that viewing education as a one-time investment is misguided; instead, it should be seen as a temporary ticket that requires continuous skill development beyond formal education [19]. - The rapid evolution of knowledge due to AI means that the shelf life of a degree has significantly shortened, with many skills becoming obsolete within 18 months [21]. - The focus should shift from what one knows to how one adapts to unknown situations, emphasizing the importance of practical skills over formal qualifications in the AI era [21].

Core Viewpoint - The increasing trend of civil service examinations among young people is a rational risk management decision based on current employment conditions, rather than a sign of lost dreams or conservatism [1][4][11]. Group 1: Examination Trends - The number of candidates for the national civil service examination surpassed that of graduate school entrance examinations for the first time in history in 2026, with a significant increase from 157.6 million in 2021 to 371.8 million in 2026, marking a growth rate of 235.9% [2][4]. - In contrast, the number of graduate school applicants has been declining rapidly, with a drop from a peak of 4.74 million in 2023 to 3.43 million in 2026, a decrease of over 1.3 million [2][4]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The competition for civil service positions is intense, with an admission ratio of approximately 98:1 for the national examination compared to 3.2:1 for graduate school [4]. - The phenomenon of "civil service examination fever" reflects a broader societal anxiety that transcends age and class, indicating a shift from a growth-oriented mindset to one focused on job security and stability [4][19]. Group 3: Long-term Implications - The long-term effects of failing the civil service examination can lead to significant career disadvantages, including lower starting salaries and limited advancement opportunities, as candidates return to the job market with gaps in their resumes [6][8]. - The current employment pressure is characterized as a systemic anxiety affecting various demographics, including young graduates and middle-aged workers, indicating a shift away from the belief that hard work guarantees better outcomes [19]. Group 4: Changing Definitions of "Good Jobs" - The definition of a "good job" has shifted from seeking high growth opportunities to prioritizing job security and stability, reflecting a broader change in societal values and economic conditions [9][11]. - The current job market emphasizes the importance of practical skills and experience over academic credentials, leading to a more competitive environment for graduates [23][24]. Group 5: Structural Employment Issues - There exists a structural mismatch in the job market, where the increase in job postings does not align with the expectations of recent graduates, leading to a perception of difficulty in finding suitable employment [13][14]. - The employment landscape is increasingly complex, with various groups, including young graduates, middle-aged workers, and small business owners, facing unique challenges that contribute to a pervasive sense of job insecurity [19][18].

Core Viewpoint - The decline in the number of graduate school applicants reflects a shift in value perception from academic credentials to practical skills and abilities [6][10][25]. Group 1: Graduate School Trends - The number of applicants for the 2026 graduate school entrance exam is 3.43 million, marking a decrease of 450,000 from 2025, indicating a three-year decline [4][6]. - Many students, particularly those from prestigious universities, are choosing to focus on skill development rather than pursuing further academic qualifications [9][10]. Group 2: Value of Graduate Degrees - Research shows that higher degrees correlate with higher average monthly salaries: PhD (14,823 yuan), Master's (10,113 yuan), Bachelor's (5,825 yuan), and Associate's (3,910 yuan) [14]. - The value of a graduate degree is increasingly assessed based on the skills and capabilities it represents rather than the degree itself [15][20]. Group 3: Shift in Employment Criteria - Companies are moving towards valuing practical skills over academic qualifications, with some high-paying positions not requiring degrees from top universities [22][25]. - The labor market is transitioning from a degree-centric approach to one focused on core competencies and problem-solving abilities [25][27]. Group 4: Real-World Examples - The experiences of individuals who succeeded without advanced degrees highlight the importance of practical skills and real-world experience over formal education [38][44]. - Successful entrepreneurs, such as the founder of Pop Mart, demonstrate that capability and adaptability can lead to significant achievements regardless of academic background [45][48].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformative impact of AI on education and career paths, exemplified by Gabriel Petersson, a high school dropout who leveraged AI tools to achieve significant success in the tech industry, suggesting that traditional educational credentials are becoming less relevant in the AI era [1][9][52]. Group 1: Gabriel Petersson's Journey - Gabriel Petersson, a 23-year-old from Denmark, is a notable figure in the AI landscape, having graduated from "ChatGPT University" despite being a high school dropout [3][7]. - His early entrepreneurial ventures included reselling Pokémon cards, where he earned over $20,000 by understanding market dynamics [15][16]. - At 17, he dropped out of high school to join Depict.ai, where he contributed to building a product recommendation system using computer vision and natural language processing [19][20]. Group 2: AI's Role in Education - Petersson's approach to learning involved using AI to acquire knowledge, employing a "backward learning" strategy where he set goals and directly asked AI for explanations [30][31]. - He successfully applied for an O-1 visa by showcasing his contributions on StackOverflow, arguing that peer-reviewed contributions hold more value than traditional academic credentials [32][34]. Group 3: Changing Perceptions of Education - The article highlights a broader trend where young entrepreneurs in Silicon Valley are increasingly bypassing traditional higher education, driven by the high costs of college and the accessibility of AI tools [58][66]. - The narrative suggests that practical experience and online reputation are becoming more valuable than formal degrees, as exemplified by Petersson's success [52][53]. - The shift in educational paradigms indicates that the ability to leverage AI for problem-solving is becoming a key competitive advantage, moving away from rote memorization [80][84]. Group 4: Implications for the Future - The article posits that the current generation of young innovators is redefining success metrics, emphasizing the importance of practical skills and the ability to adapt to rapidly changing technological landscapes [60][61]. - It warns that while traditional educational paths still hold some value, the opportunity cost of remaining in academia may outweigh the benefits in a fast-evolving job market [64][71]. - The conclusion encourages a mindset shift, advocating for proactive learning and the use of AI as a mentor to navigate the complexities of the modern world [90][91].

Group 1 - The core belief in the 1980s Japan was that graduating from university guaranteed a stable life, leading to a strong demand for university graduates in the job market [2][3] - Companies offered attractive benefits to recruit graduates, including free meals, gifts, and even cars, creating a culture of educational elitism [3][5] - The tutoring market in Japan saw significant growth, with a market size exceeding 1.2 trillion yen in 1985, as parents invested heavily in their children's education [3][4] Group 2 - The economic bubble burst in the 1990s led to a drastic decline in the job market, with corporate profits dropping by 20% and over 10,000 companies going bankrupt [7][8] - The job market faced an overwhelming influx of graduates from the baby boom generation, resulting in a sharp decline in employment rates starting in 1992 [9][10] - The once-coveted status of university graduates diminished, with many graduates struggling to find jobs despite sending out numerous applications [9][10] Group 3 - The trend of pursuing further education, such as graduate school, emerged as a coping mechanism, but it did not alleviate the worsening employment situation [12][13] - The number of applicants for civil service positions nearly doubled from 1991 to 1995, reflecting the high demand for stable jobs during the employment crisis [13] - The government implemented various measures to address the employment crisis, including increasing funding for higher education and promoting job training programs [17][18][22] Group 4 - The introduction of labor dispatch laws in 1999 led to a significant rise in non-regular employment, with non-standard employment forms becoming more prevalent in the job market [23][24] - The proportion of non-regular employees reached 34.6% by 2003, indicating a shift in employment dynamics and the challenges faced by job seekers [27] - Many individuals from the "lost generation" continued to struggle with non-regular employment, facing societal stigma and financial difficulties [28][29] Group 5 - In recent years, the employment market for university graduates in Japan has shown signs of recovery, with a record high employment rate of 98.1% for 2024 [31] - The demographic shift, characterized by an aging population and declining birth rates, has created a labor shortage, leading to improved job prospects for graduates [32] - The historical context of educational devaluation highlights the need for economic innovation and industry upgrades to align educational outcomes with labor market demands [33]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of degree devaluation in Japan, highlighting the shift from a strong belief in the value of higher education to a situation where degrees no longer guarantee employment, particularly following the economic bubble burst in the 1990s [4][21]. Group 1: The Lost Generation - In the 1980s, Japanese society held a strong belief that graduating from university ensured a stable future, with companies offering attractive benefits to recruit graduates [6][8]. - The economic bubble burst in the 1990s led to a drastic decline in employment opportunities, with the employment rate for university graduates dropping significantly from 1992 onwards [8][11]. - Many graduates faced unemployment or underemployment, leading to a rise in the "NEET" (Not in Education, Employment, or Training) phenomenon, where young people relied on their parents for support [12][21]. Group 2: Government Response and Policy Failures - The Japanese government implemented various measures to address the employment crisis, including the "Graduate Doubling Plan" and funding for doctoral students, but these efforts did not yield the desired results [15][17]. - The increase in the number of graduates did not correspond with job availability, leading to a surplus of highly educated individuals struggling to find work [16][21]. - The introduction of labor dispatch laws in 1999 allowed for more flexible employment practices, but this resulted in a rise in non-regular employment, further exacerbating job insecurity for young people [18][20]. Group 3: Economic and Structural Issues - The article emphasizes that the root cause of the employment crisis lies in the shrinking demand for labor due to a lack of industrial innovation and economic dynamism [21][22]. - Japan's failure to adapt to new economic waves, such as the PC and mobile internet revolutions, has contributed to the stagnation of job creation and the devaluation of degrees [22][24]. - The article concludes that without significant industrial upgrades and the creation of new job opportunities, the cycle of degree devaluation and employment challenges will persist [24].

Core Insights - The article discusses the decline in the value of degrees in Japan over the past 30 years, highlighting the shift from a strong belief in the security provided by a university degree to a reality where degrees have become less valuable [1][10]. Group 1: Historical Context - In the 1980s, Japanese society believed that obtaining a university degree guaranteed a stable future, with companies offering attractive benefits to recruit graduates [2][3]. - The job market was highly competitive, with top graduates receiving multiple job offers and high salaries, leading to a culture of intense academic pressure among students [3][4]. - The economic bubble burst in the 1990s, leading to a significant decline in corporate profits and a surge in unemployment, particularly affecting the large cohort of graduates entering the job market during this period [5][7][8]. Group 2: Employment Crisis - The employment rate for university graduates began to decline sharply from 1992, with the job market becoming increasingly bleak as companies laid off employees and reduced hiring [9][12]. - Many graduates turned to further education, such as graduate school, in hopes of improving their job prospects, but this strategy did not yield the expected results as the job market continued to worsen [12][13]. - The rise in competition for limited public sector jobs led to a significant increase in the number of applicants for civil service positions, but the government’s hiring capacity could not keep pace with demand [13][14]. Group 3: Societal Impact - The phenomenon of "NEET" (Not in Education, Employment, or Training) emerged, with a significant increase in young people living with their parents due to unemployment [14][15]. - The term "lost generation" was coined to describe those who faced severe employment challenges during the economic downturn, leading to a societal perception of failure among these individuals [15][26]. Group 4: Government Response - The Japanese government implemented various policies to address the employment crisis, including initiatives to increase the number of graduate students and improve job training programs [17][18]. - Despite these efforts, the expansion of higher education did not correlate with improved employment rates, leading to a surplus of highly educated individuals without corresponding job opportunities [18][19]. - The introduction of labor dispatch laws in 1999 allowed for more flexible employment practices, but this often resulted in lower wages and job security for workers [21][22]. Group 5: Current Trends - Recently, Japan's job market has shown signs of recovery, with the employment rate for new graduates reaching a historical high in 2024, driven by demographic changes such as an aging population and declining birth rates [28][29]. - However, the article emphasizes that the underlying issues of educational inflation and a mismatch between degree attainment and job market needs remain unresolved, highlighting the need for economic innovation and industry growth to create sustainable employment opportunities [30][31].