在很多人看来，国内贬值最快的是钞票，未来钱会越来越不值钱。主要理由有两个：一个是，央行货币超发严重。截至2025年11月末，广义货币（M2）余 额为336.99万亿元，同比增长8%。M2是GDP的2倍。未来物价出现上涨基本没有什么悬念。而另一个是，银行存款利率越来越低，储户存款利息收入跑不赢 通胀水平。此外，储户存在银行里的本金的购买力也是一年不如一年。 但事实上，由于目前国内经济处于通缩周期，2026年中国贬值最快的肯定不是钞票。数据显示，2025年1-11月全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比与上年同 期持平，即增长0%。这一数据表明当前物价水平整体稳定。这背后主要原因是，超发的货币在金融体系内空转，并没有流向商品市场。而在进入到2026年 之后，有以下这4样东西贬值最快： 第一样，二手房还会继续贬值 从2022年开始，国内房价进入到长期调整的趋势之中。先是郑州、天津、武汉等二三线城市房价下跌，在进入到2023年之后，上海、深圳等一线城市房价也 进入到了调整的队伍中来。现如今，国内房价已经连跌4年了。而在进入到2026年之后，前期调整幅度较大的二三线城市的房价跌幅会放缓，而像上海、深 圳等一线城市的房价会出 ...

一年之初的思考：关于学习的原理、新年flag和假性努力。智通财经记者 邹佳雯 邹桥(03:58) 杨婷：这是一个非常普遍的问题。通常来讲，你要从两方面问自己。第一，你要先问问自己，立的这个flag是不是你真的想做的？第二，假设你 立的这个flag是你真的想做的，你真的非常想考研、想减肥，但在做的过程中还是"行动瘫痪"。在教育心理学里面，有一个非常重要的机制可以解 释这种行为。即，当我们下决心要做一件事的时候，我们的大脑会自动认定我们已经完成了这件事的一部分，所以你会有一种爽感。 所以每个人在立flag的时候都是雄赳赳气昂昂的，但当这个flag真正落到行动层面开始做的时候，就开始出问题了。很少有人会觉得立flag有什么 问题，但我会告诉你，这真的是有问题的，它会给你形成一种欺骗。实际上所有的心理活动都是在你的头脑中发生的，没有在真实世界中留下痕 迹。你一点都没做，但你心里会觉得舒服。 转眼又是新的一年，2026年，你又打算立下什么样的flag？ 新年伊始也是不少人最有雄心的时刻，但或许，我们还需要重新思考一下，何为学习。 近日，智通财经记者就此专访上海师范大学教育学院博士后、讲师杨婷，2025年8月，她刚在第五 ...

波波夫同学 . 关注被技术异化的世界 本文来自微信公众号： 波波夫同学 ，作者：波波夫，题图来自：视觉中国 以下文章来源于波波夫同学 ，作者波波夫 既然AI转型，对绝大部分白领，包括大厂打工人来说，都是一个当代恐怖故事，那么是不是意味着 未来卷学历，卷985之类的名校的性价比会变得极低呢？ 现实情况很可能真是这样的。 一、智力即服务，也意味着智力 大贬值 过去，考上重点大学意味着掌握了复杂逻辑、语言处理和信息整合能力。这些是白领职场的入场券。 恰恰是这些985毕业生引以为傲的能力，比如写代码、做分析报告、画设计图、法律咨询等等，恰恰 是 AI 最擅长的。 在云端，这种智力几乎是无限量、零成本供应的。智力即服务 （IaaS ） 是一个划时代的经济逻辑。 它意味着智力不再是人类大脑的特权，而是像电力、自来水或云计算一样，通过API接入，按需付 费，无限供应。 Sam Altman 在 2025 年的博文《温柔的奇点》中指出： "随着数据中心生产的自动化，智力的成本 最终将收敛于电费成本。" 以前，一个人的学历和知识储备是他的固定资产，可以持续产生租金 （薪水） 。智力即服务意味着 任何人都可以在 1 秒钟内调取全 ...

Core Viewpoint - The increasing trend of civil service examinations among young people is a rational risk management decision based on current employment conditions, rather than a sign of lost dreams or conservatism [1][4][11]. Group 1: Examination Trends - The number of candidates for the national civil service examination surpassed that of graduate school entrance examinations for the first time in history in 2026, with a significant increase from 157.6 million in 2021 to 371.8 million in 2026, marking a growth rate of 235.9% [2][4]. - In contrast, the number of graduate school applicants has been declining rapidly, with a drop from a peak of 4.74 million in 2023 to 3.43 million in 2026, a decrease of over 1.3 million [2][4]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The competition for civil service positions is intense, with an admission ratio of approximately 98:1 for the national examination compared to 3.2:1 for graduate school [4]. - The phenomenon of "civil service examination fever" reflects a broader societal anxiety that transcends age and class, indicating a shift from a growth-oriented mindset to one focused on job security and stability [4][19]. Group 3: Long-term Implications - The long-term effects of failing the civil service examination can lead to significant career disadvantages, including lower starting salaries and limited advancement opportunities, as candidates return to the job market with gaps in their resumes [6][8]. - The current employment pressure is characterized as a systemic anxiety affecting various demographics, including young graduates and middle-aged workers, indicating a shift away from the belief that hard work guarantees better outcomes [19]. Group 4: Changing Definitions of "Good Jobs" - The definition of a "good job" has shifted from seeking high growth opportunities to prioritizing job security and stability, reflecting a broader change in societal values and economic conditions [9][11]. - The current job market emphasizes the importance of practical skills and experience over academic credentials, leading to a more competitive environment for graduates [23][24]. Group 5: Structural Employment Issues - There exists a structural mismatch in the job market, where the increase in job postings does not align with the expectations of recent graduates, leading to a perception of difficulty in finding suitable employment [13][14]. - The employment landscape is increasingly complex, with various groups, including young graduates, middle-aged workers, and small business owners, facing unique challenges that contribute to a pervasive sense of job insecurity [19][18].

Core Viewpoint - The decline in the number of graduate school applicants reflects a shift in value perception from academic credentials to practical skills and abilities [6][10][25]. Group 1: Graduate School Trends - The number of applicants for the 2026 graduate school entrance exam is 3.43 million, marking a decrease of 450,000 from 2025, indicating a three-year decline [4][6]. - Many students, particularly those from prestigious universities, are choosing to focus on skill development rather than pursuing further academic qualifications [9][10]. Group 2: Value of Graduate Degrees - Research shows that higher degrees correlate with higher average monthly salaries: PhD (14,823 yuan), Master's (10,113 yuan), Bachelor's (5,825 yuan), and Associate's (3,910 yuan) [14]. - The value of a graduate degree is increasingly assessed based on the skills and capabilities it represents rather than the degree itself [15][20]. Group 3: Shift in Employment Criteria - Companies are moving towards valuing practical skills over academic qualifications, with some high-paying positions not requiring degrees from top universities [22][25]. - The labor market is transitioning from a degree-centric approach to one focused on core competencies and problem-solving abilities [25][27]. Group 4: Real-World Examples - The experiences of individuals who succeeded without advanced degrees highlight the importance of practical skills and real-world experience over formal education [38][44]. - Successful entrepreneurs, such as the founder of Pop Mart, demonstrate that capability and adaptability can lead to significant achievements regardless of academic background [45][48].

转自：新智元 编辑：定慧 【导读】 当高校还在教你写简历时，有人已经拿着「ChatGPT文凭」给奥特曼P图偷显卡，顺手改写签证规则和学历游戏。这不只是一个辍学生逆 袭故事，而是AI时代对大学和文凭一次彻底瓦解。 如果说有一个人能完美代言这个疯狂的AI时代，那一定是他。 Gabriel Petersson，一个 丹麦年轻人，从 ChatGPT大学 毕业的高中辍学生。 就在这个10月，他用一段自己老板OpenAI奥特曼在塔吉特百货偷显卡的视频，炸翻了全球社交网络！ 现在的他是OpenAI的研究科学家，Sora的核心技术贡献者，年仅23岁，竟然是个高中辍学生！ 只能说有了AI的加成，一部分天才少年利用AI所能取得的成就已经超乎大部分人的想象了。 在深挖这位「 瑞典高中辍学生」 是如何拿着「 ChatGPT大学」 的文凭，杀入OpenAI核心团队后，最大的感受就是，大学和教育要不存在了。 野路子天才 虽然 Petersson的故事初看非常的击中大众热爱「逆袭」故事的点，但别忘这个人本身的素质。 看完 Petersson的履历，只能说这个小哥的思维路子 有点野！ 14岁时，当同龄人还在为数学作业发愁，他已经开始在倒卖 ...

Group 1 - The core belief in the 1980s Japan was that graduating from university guaranteed a stable life, leading to a strong demand for university graduates in the job market [2][3] - Companies offered attractive benefits to recruit graduates, including free meals, gifts, and even cars, creating a culture of educational elitism [3][5] - The tutoring market in Japan saw significant growth, with a market size exceeding 1.2 trillion yen in 1985, as parents invested heavily in their children's education [3][4] Group 2 - The economic bubble burst in the 1990s led to a drastic decline in the job market, with corporate profits dropping by 20% and over 10,000 companies going bankrupt [7][8] - The job market faced an overwhelming influx of graduates from the baby boom generation, resulting in a sharp decline in employment rates starting in 1992 [9][10] - The once-coveted status of university graduates diminished, with many graduates struggling to find jobs despite sending out numerous applications [9][10] Group 3 - The trend of pursuing further education, such as graduate school, emerged as a coping mechanism, but it did not alleviate the worsening employment situation [12][13] - The number of applicants for civil service positions nearly doubled from 1991 to 1995, reflecting the high demand for stable jobs during the employment crisis [13] - The government implemented various measures to address the employment crisis, including increasing funding for higher education and promoting job training programs [17][18][22] Group 4 - The introduction of labor dispatch laws in 1999 led to a significant rise in non-regular employment, with non-standard employment forms becoming more prevalent in the job market [23][24] - The proportion of non-regular employees reached 34.6% by 2003, indicating a shift in employment dynamics and the challenges faced by job seekers [27] - Many individuals from the "lost generation" continued to struggle with non-regular employment, facing societal stigma and financial difficulties [28][29] Group 5 - In recent years, the employment market for university graduates in Japan has shown signs of recovery, with a record high employment rate of 98.1% for 2024 [31] - The demographic shift, characterized by an aging population and declining birth rates, has created a labor shortage, leading to improved job prospects for graduates [32] - The historical context of educational devaluation highlights the need for economic innovation and industry upgrades to align educational outcomes with labor market demands [33]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of degree devaluation in Japan, highlighting the shift from a strong belief in the value of higher education to a situation where degrees no longer guarantee employment, particularly following the economic bubble burst in the 1990s [4][21]. Group 1: The Lost Generation - In the 1980s, Japanese society held a strong belief that graduating from university ensured a stable future, with companies offering attractive benefits to recruit graduates [6][8]. - The economic bubble burst in the 1990s led to a drastic decline in employment opportunities, with the employment rate for university graduates dropping significantly from 1992 onwards [8][11]. - Many graduates faced unemployment or underemployment, leading to a rise in the "NEET" (Not in Education, Employment, or Training) phenomenon, where young people relied on their parents for support [12][21]. Group 2: Government Response and Policy Failures - The Japanese government implemented various measures to address the employment crisis, including the "Graduate Doubling Plan" and funding for doctoral students, but these efforts did not yield the desired results [15][17]. - The increase in the number of graduates did not correspond with job availability, leading to a surplus of highly educated individuals struggling to find work [16][21]. - The introduction of labor dispatch laws in 1999 allowed for more flexible employment practices, but this resulted in a rise in non-regular employment, further exacerbating job insecurity for young people [18][20]. Group 3: Economic and Structural Issues - The article emphasizes that the root cause of the employment crisis lies in the shrinking demand for labor due to a lack of industrial innovation and economic dynamism [21][22]. - Japan's failure to adapt to new economic waves, such as the PC and mobile internet revolutions, has contributed to the stagnation of job creation and the devaluation of degrees [22][24]. - The article concludes that without significant industrial upgrades and the creation of new job opportunities, the cycle of degree devaluation and employment challenges will persist [24].

Core Insights - The article discusses the decline in the value of degrees in Japan over the past 30 years, highlighting the shift from a strong belief in the security provided by a university degree to a reality where degrees have become less valuable [1][10]. Group 1: Historical Context - In the 1980s, Japanese society believed that obtaining a university degree guaranteed a stable future, with companies offering attractive benefits to recruit graduates [2][3]. - The job market was highly competitive, with top graduates receiving multiple job offers and high salaries, leading to a culture of intense academic pressure among students [3][4]. - The economic bubble burst in the 1990s, leading to a significant decline in corporate profits and a surge in unemployment, particularly affecting the large cohort of graduates entering the job market during this period [5][7][8]. Group 2: Employment Crisis - The employment rate for university graduates began to decline sharply from 1992, with the job market becoming increasingly bleak as companies laid off employees and reduced hiring [9][12]. - Many graduates turned to further education, such as graduate school, in hopes of improving their job prospects, but this strategy did not yield the expected results as the job market continued to worsen [12][13]. - The rise in competition for limited public sector jobs led to a significant increase in the number of applicants for civil service positions, but the government’s hiring capacity could not keep pace with demand [13][14]. Group 3: Societal Impact - The phenomenon of "NEET" (Not in Education, Employment, or Training) emerged, with a significant increase in young people living with their parents due to unemployment [14][15]. - The term "lost generation" was coined to describe those who faced severe employment challenges during the economic downturn, leading to a societal perception of failure among these individuals [15][26]. Group 4: Government Response - The Japanese government implemented various policies to address the employment crisis, including initiatives to increase the number of graduate students and improve job training programs [17][18]. - Despite these efforts, the expansion of higher education did not correlate with improved employment rates, leading to a surplus of highly educated individuals without corresponding job opportunities [18][19]. - The introduction of labor dispatch laws in 1999 allowed for more flexible employment practices, but this often resulted in lower wages and job security for workers [21][22]. Group 5: Current Trends - Recently, Japan's job market has shown signs of recovery, with the employment rate for new graduates reaching a historical high in 2024, driven by demographic changes such as an aging population and declining birth rates [28][29]. - However, the article emphasizes that the underlying issues of educational inflation and a mismatch between degree attainment and job market needs remain unresolved, highlighting the need for economic innovation and industry growth to create sustainable employment opportunities [30][31].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the economic challenges faced by Japan, particularly in the context of the "Lost Decade" and its implications for employment and societal structures. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Crisis and Employment Challenges** The analysis draws parallels between Japan's "Lost 30 Years" and current economic challenges, emphasizing the complex issues arising from the collapse of the bubble economy, including unemployment, educational devaluation, and aging population [2][3][4] 2. **Historical Context of Economic Collapse** Japan's economic collapse is attributed to speculative behaviors leading to a systemic breakdown, with significant impacts on employment and corporate structures. The unemployment rate surged from below 2% to 3% in 1993, marking the onset of the employment crisis [5][6] 3. **Government Policy Responses** The Japanese government implemented various measures to keep unemployment below 5%, but these often sacrificed long-term growth for short-term stability. The policies included maintaining employment through corporate reforms and financial support for struggling companies [3][10][11] 4. **Impact of Employment Policies** The long-term effects of Japan's employment policies led to a significant number of "zombie companies," which accounted for 20% of all firms at their peak, indicating a failure to innovate and adapt to new market conditions [12][14] 5. **Technological Development Missed Opportunities** Japan's focus on stabilizing employment resulted in a lack of investment in technological advancements, causing the country to miss out on opportunities in the internet and AI sectors [14][16] 6. **Generational Sacrifice and Social Discontent** The younger generation, particularly those graduating in the 1990s, faced severe employment challenges, leading to a rise in "NEET" (Not in Education, Employment, or Training) culture and a significant increase in the number of young people living with their parents [17][19][34] 7. **Structural Changes in Employment** The shift towards temporary employment contracts and the decline of lifetime employment systems have created a precarious job market for new graduates, with many forced into low-paying, unstable jobs [11][37] 8. **Cultural and Psychological Effects** The economic downturn has led to a cultural shift among Japanese youth, with increased acceptance of a lifestyle characterized by withdrawal from traditional career paths and societal expectations [39][40] 9. **Financial System and Banking Crisis** The government's reluctance to allow failing companies to go bankrupt contributed to a banking crisis, with significant implications for the financial system and overall economic stability [15][25][43] 10. **Long-term Economic Consequences** The prolonged economic stagnation has resulted in a generational divide, with the younger population bearing the brunt of the economic fallout, leading to a lasting impact on social structures and economic mobility [44] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The historical analysis provides a cautionary tale about the dangers of prioritizing short-term stability over long-term economic health, highlighting the need for proactive and adaptive policy measures in response to economic crises [10][32][38] - The discussion also emphasizes the interconnectedness of employment policies, corporate health, and societal well-being, suggesting that neglecting one aspect can lead to broader systemic issues [9][23][24]