有人开玩笑说："21世纪最贵的是人才，21世纪贬值最快的却是学历。" 而这在日本，早已不是玩笑，而是30年经验教训的事实。 01 迷失的一代 "只要考上大学，一辈子就稳了。" 这是80年代日本人的信仰。 彼时的日本经济欣欣向荣，企业争相招聘大学生。为了吸引求职者，很多企业承诺：只要来参加招聘会就提供午餐，附赠伴手礼。 有的企业不仅会为入职员工提供免费公寓，还报销搬家费、生活用品费。 三菱汽车为了吸引高学历人才，甚至推出过"入职就送汽车"的福利。 当时的日本大学生被称为"金蛋"，很多人还没毕业就收到了入职邀约：男生平均收到3份，女生平均收到2.5份。东京大学、早稻田大学等名校毕业的"天 之骄子"，工资更是达到社会平均工资的三倍。 在学历崇拜的氛围下，日本社会兴起"鸡娃热"。街头巷尾的学习塾内，学生们拼命背着英语单词，疯狂刷着超纲试卷。 据统计，1985年日本课外补习市场规模突破1.2万亿日元，学习塾数量更是一度超过2万家，比当时的便利店还要多。 有些家长，甚至不惜抵押房产为子女支付补习费，只盼其能够在高考中"鲤鱼跃龙门"。 然而，进入90年代，经济泡沫急速破裂后，一切都发生了变化。 1990年，日本股市急转直下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of degree devaluation in Japan, highlighting the shift from a strong belief in the value of higher education to a situation where degrees no longer guarantee employment, particularly following the economic bubble burst in the 1990s [4][21]. Group 1: The Lost Generation - In the 1980s, Japanese society held a strong belief that graduating from university ensured a stable future, with companies offering attractive benefits to recruit graduates [6][8]. - The economic bubble burst in the 1990s led to a drastic decline in employment opportunities, with the employment rate for university graduates dropping significantly from 1992 onwards [8][11]. - Many graduates faced unemployment or underemployment, leading to a rise in the "NEET" (Not in Education, Employment, or Training) phenomenon, where young people relied on their parents for support [12][21]. Group 2: Government Response and Policy Failures - The Japanese government implemented various measures to address the employment crisis, including the "Graduate Doubling Plan" and funding for doctoral students, but these efforts did not yield the desired results [15][17]. - The increase in the number of graduates did not correspond with job availability, leading to a surplus of highly educated individuals struggling to find work [16][21]. - The introduction of labor dispatch laws in 1999 allowed for more flexible employment practices, but this resulted in a rise in non-regular employment, further exacerbating job insecurity for young people [18][20]. Group 3: Economic and Structural Issues - The article emphasizes that the root cause of the employment crisis lies in the shrinking demand for labor due to a lack of industrial innovation and economic dynamism [21][22]. - Japan's failure to adapt to new economic waves, such as the PC and mobile internet revolutions, has contributed to the stagnation of job creation and the devaluation of degrees [22][24]. - The article concludes that without significant industrial upgrades and the creation of new job opportunities, the cycle of degree devaluation and employment challenges will persist [24].

Core Insights - The article discusses the decline in the value of degrees in Japan over the past 30 years, highlighting the shift from a strong belief in the security provided by a university degree to a reality where degrees have become less valuable [1][10]. Group 1: Historical Context - In the 1980s, Japanese society believed that obtaining a university degree guaranteed a stable future, with companies offering attractive benefits to recruit graduates [2][3]. - The job market was highly competitive, with top graduates receiving multiple job offers and high salaries, leading to a culture of intense academic pressure among students [3][4]. - The economic bubble burst in the 1990s, leading to a significant decline in corporate profits and a surge in unemployment, particularly affecting the large cohort of graduates entering the job market during this period [5][7][8]. Group 2: Employment Crisis - The employment rate for university graduates began to decline sharply from 1992, with the job market becoming increasingly bleak as companies laid off employees and reduced hiring [9][12]. - Many graduates turned to further education, such as graduate school, in hopes of improving their job prospects, but this strategy did not yield the expected results as the job market continued to worsen [12][13]. - The rise in competition for limited public sector jobs led to a significant increase in the number of applicants for civil service positions, but the government’s hiring capacity could not keep pace with demand [13][14]. Group 3: Societal Impact - The phenomenon of "NEET" (Not in Education, Employment, or Training) emerged, with a significant increase in young people living with their parents due to unemployment [14][15]. - The term "lost generation" was coined to describe those who faced severe employment challenges during the economic downturn, leading to a societal perception of failure among these individuals [15][26]. Group 4: Government Response - The Japanese government implemented various policies to address the employment crisis, including initiatives to increase the number of graduate students and improve job training programs [17][18]. - Despite these efforts, the expansion of higher education did not correlate with improved employment rates, leading to a surplus of highly educated individuals without corresponding job opportunities [18][19]. - The introduction of labor dispatch laws in 1999 allowed for more flexible employment practices, but this often resulted in lower wages and job security for workers [21][22]. Group 5: Current Trends - Recently, Japan's job market has shown signs of recovery, with the employment rate for new graduates reaching a historical high in 2024, driven by demographic changes such as an aging population and declining birth rates [28][29]. - However, the article emphasizes that the underlying issues of educational inflation and a mismatch between degree attainment and job market needs remain unresolved, highlighting the need for economic innovation and industry growth to create sustainable employment opportunities [30][31].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the economic challenges faced by Japan, particularly in the context of the "Lost Decade" and its implications for employment and societal structures. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Crisis and Employment Challenges** The analysis draws parallels between Japan's "Lost 30 Years" and current economic challenges, emphasizing the complex issues arising from the collapse of the bubble economy, including unemployment, educational devaluation, and aging population [2][3][4] 2. **Historical Context of Economic Collapse** Japan's economic collapse is attributed to speculative behaviors leading to a systemic breakdown, with significant impacts on employment and corporate structures. The unemployment rate surged from below 2% to 3% in 1993, marking the onset of the employment crisis [5][6] 3. **Government Policy Responses** The Japanese government implemented various measures to keep unemployment below 5%, but these often sacrificed long-term growth for short-term stability. The policies included maintaining employment through corporate reforms and financial support for struggling companies [3][10][11] 4. **Impact of Employment Policies** The long-term effects of Japan's employment policies led to a significant number of "zombie companies," which accounted for 20% of all firms at their peak, indicating a failure to innovate and adapt to new market conditions [12][14] 5. **Technological Development Missed Opportunities** Japan's focus on stabilizing employment resulted in a lack of investment in technological advancements, causing the country to miss out on opportunities in the internet and AI sectors [14][16] 6. **Generational Sacrifice and Social Discontent** The younger generation, particularly those graduating in the 1990s, faced severe employment challenges, leading to a rise in "NEET" (Not in Education, Employment, or Training) culture and a significant increase in the number of young people living with their parents [17][19][34] 7. **Structural Changes in Employment** The shift towards temporary employment contracts and the decline of lifetime employment systems have created a precarious job market for new graduates, with many forced into low-paying, unstable jobs [11][37] 8. **Cultural and Psychological Effects** The economic downturn has led to a cultural shift among Japanese youth, with increased acceptance of a lifestyle characterized by withdrawal from traditional career paths and societal expectations [39][40] 9. **Financial System and Banking Crisis** The government's reluctance to allow failing companies to go bankrupt contributed to a banking crisis, with significant implications for the financial system and overall economic stability [15][25][43] 10. **Long-term Economic Consequences** The prolonged economic stagnation has resulted in a generational divide, with the younger population bearing the brunt of the economic fallout, leading to a lasting impact on social structures and economic mobility [44] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The historical analysis provides a cautionary tale about the dangers of prioritizing short-term stability over long-term economic health, highlighting the need for proactive and adaptive policy measures in response to economic crises [10][32][38] - The discussion also emphasizes the interconnectedness of employment policies, corporate health, and societal well-being, suggesting that neglecting one aspect can lead to broader systemic issues [9][23][24]

Core Viewpoint - The rising tuition fees for graduate programs are creating a significant barrier for prospective students, leading to a decline in the number of applicants for graduate studies, as the cost-benefit analysis of pursuing a master's degree becomes increasingly unfavorable [6][8][40]. Tuition Fee Increases - A C9 university announced a tuition increase for its master's program in social work to 80,000 yuan, a nearly 70% increase from the previous year's 48,000 yuan, resulting in total costs exceeding 100,000 yuan over 2.5 years [6][8]. - Other graduate programs, particularly in finance and psychology, have tuition fees reaching as high as 828,000 yuan, contributing to a growing trend of discouragement among potential applicants [8][10]. Declining Graduate School Applications - The "exam for graduate school" trend has cooled down, with predictions of continued declines in application numbers for the 2026 academic year [8][40]. - The duration of specialized master's programs is extending from two years to three years, further increasing the financial burden on students, especially in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai [8][19]. Economic Considerations - The total cost of graduate education, including rent and living expenses, can reach approximately 600,000 yuan over three years, with many students relying on family support to cover these costs [19][21]. - The lack of on-campus housing for specialized master's students at several top universities adds to the financial strain, forcing students to seek expensive off-campus accommodations [19][20]. Employment Concerns - Graduates from less popular programs, such as social work, face challenges in the job market, with salaries typically ranging from 3,000 to 5,000 yuan per month, raising questions about the return on investment for their education [27][31]. - The perception of graduate degrees is shifting, with employers increasingly prioritizing practical experience over advanced degrees, leading to a phenomenon where higher education does not guarantee better job prospects [46][48]. Future Outlook - The number of graduate school applicants has seen a significant drop, with a decrease of 360,000 applicants expected in 2024, indicating a potential end to the previous surge in interest in graduate education [44][48]. - Experts suggest that the rising costs of graduate education are prompting a more rational evaluation of its value, with students now more likely to weigh the financial implications before committing to further studies [48][50].

Core Viewpoint - The rising tuition fees for graduate programs are becoming a significant deterrent for prospective students, leading to a decline in the number of applicants for graduate studies [4][11][60]. Group 1: Tuition Fee Increases - A C9 university announced a tuition increase for its Master's program in Social Work to 80,000 yuan, a nearly 70% rise from the previous year's 48,000 yuan [6][7]. - The overall cost of pursuing a Master's degree is expected to exceed 100,000 yuan when considering living expenses, with some programs costing over 800,000 yuan [8][21]. - Many universities are extending the duration of professional Master's programs from 2 years to 3 years, further increasing the financial burden on students [8][21]. Group 2: Declining Interest in Graduate Studies - The "exam fever" for graduate studies has cooled over the past two years, with predictions of continued declines in application numbers for the 2026 entrance exams [8][52]. - The phenomenon of "degree inflation" is leading to a devaluation of graduate degrees, as higher education does not guarantee better job prospects [53][59]. Group 3: Financial Burden and Living Costs - The total expenses for a three-year graduate program can reach around 600,000 yuan, including rent and living costs, with many students relying on family support [24][26]. - Some universities have stopped providing accommodation for professional Master's students, forcing them to seek expensive off-campus housing [21][26]. Group 4: Employment Concerns - Graduates from less popular programs, such as Social Work, face challenges in the job market, with salaries often ranging from 3,000 to 5,000 yuan per month [36][39]. - The perception of graduate degrees as a means to secure better employment is being questioned, as many graduates struggle to find jobs that match their qualifications [53][59]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Experts suggest that the surge in graduate enrollment may not return to previous levels, indicating a shift towards more rational decision-making among prospective students [59][60]. - The increasing costs associated with graduate education are prompting students to critically evaluate the value of their degrees and the potential return on investment [60][61].

Core Viewpoint - The enrollment data from top Chinese universities (985 universities) indicates a significant trend towards expanding graduate programs, with graduate enrollment surpassing undergraduate enrollment in many institutions, reflecting a shift in higher education focus towards advanced degrees [1][4][6]. Enrollment Trends - From 2019 to 2025, the majority of 985 universities have seen graduate enrollment (master's and doctoral) exceed undergraduate enrollment, with some universities showing a difference of nearly three times [4][7]. - The enrollment growth rates for graduate programs are notably higher than those for undergraduate programs, with master's programs growing at approximately 5% and doctoral programs at around 10% annually [3][6]. Gender Ratio Dynamics - The gender ratio among new students in 985 universities shows a "V" shape fluctuation: undergraduate programs predominantly have more male students, while the proportion of female students increases at the master's level, only to decrease again at the doctoral level [1][12][17]. - In 2025, certain universities like Electronic Science and Technology University exhibit a male-to-female ratio of 3.53 in undergraduate programs, while the ratio for master's students is more balanced [13][15]. Policy and Future Outlook - The expansion of graduate programs is driven by national policies aimed at increasing the number of high-level talents, but there are concerns about the quality of education and resource allocation [2][9]. - Predictions suggest that by 2040, a significant portion of the population may have access to higher education, potentially leading to an oversupply of graduates in fields that do not require advanced degrees [11].

Core Viewpoint - The incident at Nanchang University highlights the tension between traditional views of education and the evolving job market, particularly regarding the acceptance of non-traditional roles like live streaming and content creation in prestigious academic settings [1][2][3] Group 1: Education and Employment Landscape - The value of degrees is diminishing, with an increasing number of master's and doctoral graduates compared to undergraduates, raising questions about the continued prestige of 211 universities [2][3] - The expansion of higher education since 1999 has led to a significant increase in the number of graduates, diluting the perceived value of degrees [3][6] - In emerging fields such as content creation and live streaming, skills and personal capabilities are becoming more important than formal educational qualifications [3][6] Group 2: Perception of Professions - There exists a societal hierarchy that values public sector jobs over private sector roles, with a prevailing belief that government jobs are more respectable [4][5] - The perception of live streaming as a less legitimate profession compared to traditional roles is challenged, as both require professional skills and competencies [7][8] - The notion that live streaming is inherently less respectable than public sector jobs is critiqued, emphasizing that many public sector roles may involve unfulfilling tasks and bureaucratic inefficiencies [9] Group 3: Market Realities - Nanchang University's decision to allow a live streaming company to participate in their job fair reflects a pragmatic approach to the diverse employment needs of graduates in a changing economy [6] - The increasing acceptance of various job types, including those in the gig economy, indicates a shift towards recognizing the legitimacy of different career paths [6][8]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant transformation in global higher education, with the number of university students reaching 264 million, making it equivalent to the world's fifth-largest population [1][2] - The article discusses the rapid increase in global university enrollment, which has more than doubled since 2000, and the number of international students has surged nearly threefold to approximately 7 million [2][18] - The article notes that the traditional flow of students studying abroad is changing, with wealthier Western countries no longer being the primary destinations for international students [4][20] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the growing trend of "internationalization" in higher education, where students can obtain foreign degrees without leaving their home countries, exemplified by overseas campuses [17][21] - It mentions that the Gross Enrollment Ratio (GER) in various regions has seen significant growth, with Europe and North America reaching 80% by 2024, while East Asia and Southeast Asia's GER increased from 15% to 62% from 2000 to 2023 [10][14] - The article raises concerns about the quality and value of education as access expands, leading to potential issues such as degree devaluation and increased job market competition [16][4] Group 3 - The article discusses the impact of geopolitical factors on international student mobility, with countries like the UK, Canada, and Australia tightening immigration policies, which may affect international student admissions [20][21] - It highlights the increasing popularity of private universities, particularly in regions like Southeast Asia and Africa, while also noting the challenges they face in terms of quality compared to public institutions [32][34] - The article concludes with a prediction that the trend of internationalization in higher education will continue, with an estimated 10 million "student immigrants" expected in the next decade [34]

Group 1: Economic Overview - The rapid depreciation of cash is anticipated in the coming years due to severe monetary overexpansion in China, with M2 reaching 330.29 trillion yuan and a year-on-year growth of 8.3% as of June 2025 [1] - The current economic environment is characterized by deflation, with the CPI index showing a month-on-month increase of 0.4% and year-on-year stability [1][3] Group 2: Real Estate Market - Housing prices have been declining since 2022, with an average national price drop exceeding 30%, and some cities experiencing declines over 50% [5] - Factors contributing to the continued decline in housing prices include an aging population leading to reduced demand, an oversupply of housing with 600 million units available, and decreased household income affecting purchasing power [5][6] Group 3: Education and Employment - The value of university degrees is diminishing, with 12.22 million graduates expected in 2025, leading to increased competition for jobs and many graduates resorting to low-skill employment [8] - The disconnect between university education and practical job skills is causing employers to prefer experienced candidates over fresh graduates [8] Group 4: Automotive Industry - The automotive market is experiencing significant price reductions, with domestic mid-range cars dropping by 20,000 to 30,000 yuan and imported brands by nearly 100,000 yuan [10] - Contributing factors to the price decline include an influx of electric vehicles leading to market saturation, aggressive pricing strategies from tech companies entering the automotive sector, and reduced consumer demand from middle-class families [10]