Core Insights - Poly Developments, despite being the top seller in the industry, reported a quarterly loss for the first time, with a significant decline in both contract amount and area sold [2][3] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of the year, Poly Developments achieved a contract amount of 201.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.53%, and a signed area of 10.10 million square meters, down 25.13% [2] - The company reported a third-quarter revenue of 56.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.65%, but a total profit of -60.78 million yuan, a decline of 102.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -782 million yuan, down 299.19% [2] - The trend of declining net profit has persisted since 2021, with net profit decreasing from 27.39 billion yuan in 2021 to 5.00 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a continuous decline over four years [3] Inventory and Market Conditions - The company faces significant pressure from inventory, as it is still in a deep adjustment period, which affects profitability [3] - To address inventory issues, Poly Developments has adopted a strategy of price reduction to increase sales volume, which negatively impacts profit margins [4] Land Acquisition and Future Outlook - Poly Developments is focusing on optimizing its sales and profit structure through land acquisition in high-potential core areas, with a total new land area of 2.90 million square meters in the first three quarters, a 30% increase year-on-year [5] - The company has a total of 549 ongoing and planned projects, with a construction area of 44.83 million square meters and a pending development area of 45.16 million square meters [5] - Analysts maintain a positive outlook for Poly Developments, citing its strong financing advantages and focus on core cities, which may lead to improved profit margins in the future [5]

Summary of Real Estate Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The real estate market remains at a low level, with a year-on-year decline exceeding 30% [1][3] - Significant differentiation among companies, with only one-third of real estate firms achieving month-on-month growth [2][5] - The top ten firms, including China Overseas, Greentown, China Merchants, and Huafa, showed notable growth rates of 20% to 30% [2][1] Key Market Trends - Supply in first-tier cities has significantly decreased, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen experiencing substantial declines [1][3] - Beijing's new supply was only 130,000 square meters, down over 30% month-on-month and nearly 70% year-on-year [3] - Shanghai's new supply was 310,000 square meters, with overall land market activity remaining sluggish [3] - Guangzhou's new home market remained relatively stable, benefiting from new regulations that accounted for 62% of new supply [12][1] - Shenzhen's transaction volume dropped significantly, with a month-on-month decline of 32% and a year-on-year decline of 50% [11][1] Sales Performance - In August, real estate sales continued to decline, with a month-on-month drop of 1.9% and a year-on-year drop of 17.6% [2] - Cumulatively, from January to August, the sales of the top 100 real estate firms fell by 13.1% [2] - The transaction volume in 30 key cities decreased by 12% month-on-month and 17% year-on-year in August [5][1] Policy Impact - The cancellation of purchase restrictions in Beijing on August 8 had limited effects, with transaction volumes remaining stable despite a 16% increase in visitor numbers [9][1] - New policies in Shanghai introduced on August 25 did not significantly stimulate the market, with only slight improvements in certain segments [10][1] - The overall market is still waiting for a significant policy breakthrough as current data shows no signs of recovery [21][1] Future Expectations - There is an expectation of a 30% to 50% increase in new supply in September, driven by development cycles [19][1] - The stability of core cities and new product regulations may provide some assurance for the market, but overall caution is advised [6][1] Inventory and Market Dynamics - The inventory situation varies, with some cities like Changsha and Wuhan showing high turnover rates due to unique project designs [25][1] - The overall inventory in Wuhan is approximately 15 million square meters with a 21-month turnover cycle, while Changsha has about 5 million square meters with an 18-month cycle [30][1] Conclusion - The real estate market is characterized by significant challenges, including declining sales, reduced supply, and limited policy effectiveness. However, certain firms and cities are showing resilience, indicating potential areas for investment and recovery in the future.