VIEW 克而瑞研究中心 "每周研究精读" ， 聚焦宏观、行业、房企、土拍、产品、客需、榜单等多个研究 成果，与各界探讨行业运行逻辑、变数及未来趋势。 点击标题阅读全文 观点 有些二线城市，得房率超1 0 0%也卖不动了 更多热销的新规产品往往是具备核心区域、健全配套、价格实惠、装标升级等多个复合型优势的项目 宁波收储宅地降价3 7 0 0元/㎡出让，竞得方曾是开发商子公司 恒大退市，阵痛未止 恒大退市，清盘工作依然继续，巨额债务终要人买单，留给社会的阵痛远未停止。 同比增长4 . 9倍的城中村改造专项债，正在主投这些城市 城中村改造专项债累计同比增长4 87%，拉动保障性安居工程整体增长33% 宁波城宏置业以1 9 . 3亿元的底价竞得宁波江北区01- 06- 01、06地块 京沪杭房价二次下行后对哪些需求影响更明显 二手成交下行影响"卖旧换新"能力和信心，依托中高端需求支撑的新房承压 京沪深刚需和豪宅新挂牌房源占比稳增 京沪深高端市场热度或将稳中有降 研报 土地| 成交规模延续低位，深圳宝安中心刷新地价纪录（8 . 11 - 8 . 1 7） 第3 3周土地供应规模环比小幅上升、成交建面环比小幅回落。本周 ...

"户户有花园,家家有庭院,得房率超过100%",近两年"四代宅"产品以其独特优势吸引了不少购房者关注。 据调查,2025年下半年济南有近20个新盘入市,多为140平方米起步的改善产品,其中在改善细分市场上,多 个"四代宅"项目将集中入市。业内人士表示,"四代宅"体现了房地产市场向高品质、个性化发展的趋势, 在政策和市场需求的推动下,有望成为未来市场的重要组成部分；"四代宅"开发也讲究因地制宜,并非所 有房企都有实力做第四代住宅。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current real estate market continues to show signs of weak recovery, with July witnessing a seasonal decline in market activity, although still outperforming the same period last year [1][19]. Market Performance - In July, the average opening sales rate across 30 key cities dropped to 30%, marking a year-to-date low, with a month-on-month decrease of 11 percentage points but a year-on-year increase of 3 percentage points [4][19]. - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen experienced significant declines in sales rates, with Shenzhen hitting a record low of 4% [7][19]. - Cities such as Tianjin and Suzhou saw increases in sales rates, indicating a continuation of weak recovery trends [7]. Hot Selling Projects - Core area high-end projects in cities like Shanghai, Chengdu, and Hangzhou remain the main drivers of sales, with notable examples achieving high sales rates [9][10]. - In Chengdu, top-selling projects were all located in core areas, benefiting from strong product appeal and increased sales efforts from developers [9]. - Educational resources continue to drive demand in cities like Changsha and Xi'an, where school district properties are among the top sellers [11][12]. Product Trends - The introduction of high-efficiency "fourth-generation" residential projects and new regulations has positively impacted short-term market activity, with these projects often outperforming traditional offerings [13][19]. - However, there is a noticeable divergence in sales performance among new projects, with some failing to attract buyers despite product advantages due to inadequate supporting infrastructure [14][19]. Pricing Strategies - In weaker second-tier cities, developers are increasingly resorting to discounting and enhanced commission structures to boost sales, with notable success in cities like Xi'an and Suzhou [16][19]. - Projects in these cities have seen significant sales through aggressive pricing strategies, with many offering discounts of up to 20% [17][19]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain in a low transaction volume phase in August, with developers' enthusiasm for launching new projects likely to remain subdued [19]. - However, due to last year's low base, the year-on-year decline in sales may narrow to within 5%, continuing the weak recovery trend [19].

CRIC 克而瑞·研究中心 中国房地产 研报 热销项目|6 月新规项目和高改盘 集中入市支撑去化率攀升 2025 年 克而瑞观点 文/俞倩倩 6月整体楼市延续止跌企稳的弱复苏走势,楼市新房成交微降,而项目去化率环比持增:6月平 均开盘去化率为 41%,环比上升 3pcts,同比上升 11pcts,与 2023年高峰基本持平。充意当前热销 楼盘有什么共性特征?7月又能否延续市场热度稳步回升的态势呢? 一、6 月 30 城平均去化率 41%,优质项目入市托举去化率同环比正增 6月年中业绩冲刺,整体市场热度延续高位震荡,同环比皆增:据 CRIC 调研数据,30个重点城 市 6 月平均开盘去化率为 41%,环比上升 3pcts,同比上升 11pcts,与 2023年高峰基本持平,延续 稳中向好。 41% 023年1月 023年5月 023年7月 023年2月 023年3月 023年4月 023年6月 023年8月 023年11月 023年12月 024年2月 024年3月 024年4月 024年5月 024年6月 024年7月 024年8月 024年9月 024年10月 024年11月 025年1月 025年2月 0 ...

Core Viewpoint - In August, new home transaction expectations remained stable at low levels due to supply constraints, with cities like Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Changsha showing slight increases [1][14]. Supply Overview - In August, supply in 28 key cities dropped by 40% year-on-year, returning to the second-lowest level of the year, with all first-tier cities under pressure except Guangzhou, which saw a 13% increase [4][5][7]. - The overall supply volume was the second-lowest of the year, with a total of 4.76 million square meters expected to be supplied, a 26% decrease month-on-month and a 38% decrease year-on-year [5][7]. - First-tier cities saw a significant decline in supply, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen experiencing over 90% drops in some cases, while Guangzhou was the only city to show growth [7][8]. Supply Structure - The supply structure in key cities is primarily focused on improvement needs, with 30% for basic needs, 51% for improvement, and 19% for high-end products [8][11]. - Over 70% of cities have their main supply concentrated in urban areas, with cities like Jinan and Wuxi showing a significant increase in high-end product supply [8][11]. Market Predictions - New home transaction volumes are expected to continue fluctuating at low levels, with a potential narrowing of year-on-year declines to within 5% due to a low base from the previous year [14][15]. - The differentiation between cities and projects is expected to intensify, with first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai likely to see a temporary decline in transactions due to a shortage of quality supply [15][17]. - Some second-tier cities, such as Tianjin, Suzhou, and Changsha, may experience a phase of recovery, particularly with the introduction of new residential products [15][17]. Transaction Expectations - Expected transaction changes for August indicate a mixed outlook, with Beijing and Shanghai likely to see declines, while cities like Guangzhou and Nanning may experience slight increases [17].

近日，中指研究院、克而瑞、亿翰智库等机构陆续发布2025年1~7月百强房企销售业绩。 中指研究院数据显示，1~7月百强房企销售总额20730.1亿元，同比下降13.3%，降幅较1~6月扩大1.5个 百分点。 头部企业表现依然稳健。亿翰智库统计显示，前7月TOP10房企销售门槛值同比增长5%，保利发展 （600048）以1632亿元领跑，绿城中国、中海地产则以1368亿元、1319亿元紧随其后。 "下半年房企销售仍然面临很大压力，如果政策给予进一步更大力度支持，房企销售降幅或会改善。"中 指研究院企业研究总监刘水分析指出。 7月百强房企销售额下滑 行业调整压力还在持续增加。 作为传统的行业销售淡季，各阵营房企7月单月销售额普遍不及6月。 据中指研究院数据，7月单月，TOP100房企销售额同比下降18.2%；TOP10房企中，建发房产、越秀地 产和中国金茂7月销售额均不到百亿元。不过，万科、滨江集团（002244）等部分房企7月的业绩表现抢 眼。其中，滨江集团7月单月全口径销售金额超过了80亿元，万科则达到了130亿元。 从各销售阵营房企的表现来看，今年前7月，销售额超千亿元阵营的房企共有5家，较去年同期减少1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Shenyang is experiencing significant activity in 2025, particularly in the Huanggu District, with multiple new projects emerging in close proximity to each other [1] Group 1: New Projects Overview - Three new projects are located on both sides of Tawan Street, all situated within the city center's first ring, making them rare new developments in the area [1] - The Tawan Street subway station project has commenced construction, with the land acquired by Shenyang Metro for approximately 1.9 billion yuan at a price of 4,846 yuan per square meter [3] - The second plot, known as the Xingyuan East plot, was acquired by Shenyang Yifu Real Estate for a total price of 609 million yuan at 6,200 yuan per square meter, with Goldfield Management contracted for comprehensive development management services [6] - The third plot, located at the intersection of Tawan Street and Minglian East Road, is being developed by China Overseas Property, which has a significant presence in the area [8] Group 2: Project Characteristics and Market Dynamics - The three plots are relatively small in scale and have low plot ratios, suggesting that the products will likely be low-density or mixed-use developments [12] - All projects share similar external amenities, including commercial, environmental, and transportation facilities, but there may be variability in school district allocations, which could influence buyer decisions [12] - The products from these developments are expected to incorporate current market trends, with a focus on high-efficiency housing designs that appeal to buyers [15] - Pricing strategies will be crucial, as new developments may be priced higher than existing second-hand properties, potentially affecting buyer choices [16]

Core Viewpoints - The article focuses on the current state and future trends of the Chinese real estate market, highlighting sales performance, land supply, and investment prospects for major cities [2]. Group 1: Sales Performance - The cumulative sales scale of the top 100 real estate companies in China for the first seven months of 2025 is roughly the same as the same period last year [5]. - In July 2025, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales turnover of 211.6 billion yuan [5]. Group 2: New Land Value - The second half of 2025 is expected to see more "supply of quality segments" in residential land, with various regions likely to continue experiencing high-quality land transactions [6]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - Shanghai and Beijing remain the top two cities in terms of real estate investment prospects, with the top 50 cities' new home sales and GDP accounting for over half of the national totals [7]. Group 4: Urban Renewal Focus - The political bureau meeting on July 30 emphasized urban renewal, aiming for high-quality housing supply to stimulate demand for new homes [9]. - Demand is supported by population concentration and improvement needs, with the top 20 cities projected to have an annual incremental demand of 300 million square meters [9]. - The 2025 residential land supply plan is expected to decrease by 20% year-on-year, tightening supply expectations to promote market balance [9]. Group 5: Land Transaction Trends - The monthly land transaction scale has shown seasonal declines, with many cities reaching new high prices and significant increases in premium rates [11]. - In the week of July 21-27, the land supply scale decreased by 42% while transaction volume increased by 35%, with Shanghai setting a new national land price record at 200,000 yuan per square meter [12]. Group 6: Project Management Developments - New City Construction Management successfully signed seven projects in July, and Green Town Management delivered Ningbo's first shared ownership housing [13].

Core Insights - The construction management industry is experiencing a slowdown in growth after three years of rapid expansion, with new signed planning areas increasing by 17.6% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, compared to 53% and 27% in 2023 and 2024 respectively [1][2] - New entrants in the construction management sector are showing significant growth, with companies established within the last five years achieving a remarkable 36.5% increase in new signed planning areas in the first half of 2025 [2][3] - The top five companies dominate the market, accounting for 49% of new signed areas, while the top six to ten companies hold 26% [1][2] Industry Trends - The market is shifting towards commercial construction management, which now represents over 70% of new projects, while government and capital construction management account for 24.2% and 4.9% respectively [2][3] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, leading to a price war where management fees are being compressed, with over 50% of projects having management fees between 1% and 2% [3][4] - Companies are increasingly focusing on second-tier cities for expansion, with significant proportions of new areas being developed in these regions [3][4] Strategic Insights - Companies are exploring innovative housing solutions, such as the "fourth generation housing" concept, to meet market demands and enhance project value [4][5] - The industry is advised to shift focus from rapid growth to sustainable development, emphasizing efficiency, client satisfaction, and product quality to ensure long-term viability [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - Following the announcement of the "package financial policy" in May, although there was a month-on-month recovery in June, the real estate market weakened again in July. The report emphasizes that while the market focuses on overall performance and policy expectations, certain "core areas and good properties" are stabilizing, with some quality real estate companies gradually emerging from the downturn and maintaining stable dividends. For instance, the expected year-on-year growth in net profit for Binjiang Group in H1 is between 40% and 70% [2][20] - The report highlights the potential acceleration of "good properties" and urban renewal as the central government emphasizes the transition of urbanization from rapid growth to stable development, focusing on quality improvement rather than quantity expansion [3][5] - The report notes an increase in long-term loans for residents, with June seeing a month-on-month increase of 335.3 billion, reflecting improvements in market transactions following the financial policy announcement. Additionally, private real estate companies are restarting overseas financing, with New Town Holdings issuing $300 million in senior notes at a high interest rate of 11.88% [2][19] Summary by Sections Policy - The central government has outlined a blueprint for urban work, emphasizing the acceleration of "good properties" and urban renewal. The focus is on transitioning urban development to quality improvement and promoting green, low-carbon cities [3][5][6] Market Performance - In July, the real estate market weakened again, with the average daily transaction volume of new homes in 50 key cities decreasing by 39% month-on-month. However, certain "core areas and good properties" are stabilizing, indicating strong potential demand for quality properties [2][23][30] Land Market - The land supply in June increased by 1.2% month-on-month, while the transaction area rose by 19.2%. The average premium rate for land transactions was 5.53%, indicating a continued high demand for quality land in core cities [36][31] Real Estate Companies - The report indicates that the land acquisition intensity of the top 50 real estate companies has increased year-on-year, with a focus on "certainty" in their acquisition strategies. The average land acquisition-to-sales ratio improved significantly in H1 [41][46] Stock Market - The real estate sector saw a month-on-month increase of 0.93% in June, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which rose by 2.5%. The current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for the real estate sector is 41.62, placing it in the 97.94 percentile of the past five years [47][50]