更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 主流开发商全年销售回顾与 2026 销售展望 20260104 摘要 Q&A 2025 年全年房地产开发商的销售情况如何? 2025 年全年,前百强房企的累计销售额下降了 19.3%,相比往年的降幅有所收窄。 各梯队房企的表现存在分化,前三强房企的销售额下降 16.7%,前十强下降 18.2%。 相对而言,50-100 强房企的降幅较大,达到24%左右。许多后 50 名的房企在经 历了几年的快速下跌后,销售业绩已经接近"跌无可跌"的状态。 从业绩重心 来看,今年过千亿的房企减少至10家,而2021年有 43 家超过千亿。300 到 1,000 亿规模的房企今年只有 13 家,比去年减少 9 家,100-300 亿规模的房企今年 42 x 调研究要和海堡等方面。 一 争 男 2025 年房地产市场的销售情况如何?哪些项目表现较好? 2025 年房地产市场中表现较好的项目主要分为两类:降价项目和新规产品。降 价项目通过大幅度降价吸引购房者,确保销售量。新规产品在得房率和整体产品 力上明显优于传统住宅,成为市场热点。然而,即便是豪宅,在 2025年下半年 也 ...

Core Insights - Guangzhou has implemented a significant policy change by lifting the 14-year-long housing purchase restrictions, leading to a more relaxed real estate market environment, known as the "9.30" policy [2] - The removal of restrictions has resulted in a notable increase in real estate transactions, with a 4.1% growth in real estate development investment in the first half of the year, marking the first positive growth in four years [2] - The impact of urban village renovations has been pivotal, with certain properties near these projects experiencing substantial sales success, while others continue to struggle under price pressures [2][3] Group 1: Policy Changes and Market Impact - The "9.30" policy allows for no restrictions on sales, loans, or contracts, significantly easing the financial burden on homebuyers, with down payments as low as 15% and commercial loan rates at 3.0% [2] - The policy has led to a resurgence in housing transactions, with some properties benefiting greatly from proximity to urban village renovation projects, which have become key drivers of sales [2][3] Group 2: Urban Village Renovation Projects - In 2024, Guangzhou successfully applied for 52 urban village renovation projects, securing a total credit amount of 409.6 billion yuan, which will involve approximately 108,000 households and 283,000 units of resettlement housing [3] - Specific projects, such as the renovation in Yuexiu District, have rapidly acquired new properties for resettlement, demonstrating the effectiveness of the policy in driving sales [5] Group 3: New Housing Products - The introduction of new housing products with higher usable space and practical layouts has gained popularity, with new regulations encouraging developers to build high-quality residences [9] - By the first quarter of this year, new housing products accounted for about 50% of the market, with their sales volume increasing significantly compared to previous years [9] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Price Adjustments - The emergence of new housing products has pressured the second-hand housing market, leading to a decline in average prices, with some areas experiencing drops of up to 15% [10][11] - The average transaction price for second-hand homes in Guangzhou decreased by 4% year-on-year in the first half of the year, reflecting the competitive pressure from new products [11]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance of the top 100 real estate companies in China during the first three quarters of 2025, highlighting a year-on-year decline in operational amounts by 11.8% but with a narrowing decline trend and significant month-on-month growth in September [1][5][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Sales Performance**: In September, the top 100 real estate companies experienced a month-on-month sales growth of 22% and a slight year-on-year increase of 0.4%, attributed to a low base from the previous year [2]. - **Market Dynamics**: New regulatory products have supported the market, with increased supply of new high-end residential properties in core cities. However, the sales pace slowed in August and September, indicating a weakening market demand [1][6][4]. - **Land Acquisition**: The top 100 companies saw a year-on-year increase in new land reserves, investment amounts, and area by 33%, 53%, and 5.4% respectively. The land acquisition ratio was 0.31, with the top 10 companies showing significantly higher acquisition intensity [7][8]. - **City-Level Supply Variations**: In September, Beijing saw a substantial increase in new supply, while Shanghai and Guangzhou experienced declines. Second and third-tier cities generally showed month-on-month growth but year-on-year declines [9]. - **Depletion Rates**: The overall depletion rate in September was 38%, slightly down from 42% in August but up 10 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved overall depletion efficiency [11][12]. Additional Important Insights - **Inventory Levels**: Despite a 1% month-on-month increase in inventory due to rising supply, there was a nearly 10% year-on-year decrease. The average digestion cycle for 30 cities rose to about 25 months, indicating pressure on inventory management [13]. - **Second-Hand Housing Market**: The second-hand housing market has seen a continuous decline in prices for three months, with significant drops in core cities. The market is expected to face downward pressure in the coming quarters [20][21]. - **Policy Expectations**: There are limited expectations for policy easing in the fourth quarter, with potential interest rate cuts but no significant changes anticipated in purchase restrictions [19]. - **Market Performance During National Day**: During the National Day holiday, new home sales dropped by approximately 30%, and second-hand home sales nearly halved compared to the previous year, reflecting a lack of major stimulus policies [16][17]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future expectations of the real estate market in China.

Summary of Real Estate Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The real estate market remains at a low level, with a year-on-year decline exceeding 30% [1][3] - Significant differentiation among companies, with only one-third of real estate firms achieving month-on-month growth [2][5] - The top ten firms, including China Overseas, Greentown, China Merchants, and Huafa, showed notable growth rates of 20% to 30% [2][1] Key Market Trends - Supply in first-tier cities has significantly decreased, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen experiencing substantial declines [1][3] - Beijing's new supply was only 130,000 square meters, down over 30% month-on-month and nearly 70% year-on-year [3] - Shanghai's new supply was 310,000 square meters, with overall land market activity remaining sluggish [3] - Guangzhou's new home market remained relatively stable, benefiting from new regulations that accounted for 62% of new supply [12][1] - Shenzhen's transaction volume dropped significantly, with a month-on-month decline of 32% and a year-on-year decline of 50% [11][1] Sales Performance - In August, real estate sales continued to decline, with a month-on-month drop of 1.9% and a year-on-year drop of 17.6% [2] - Cumulatively, from January to August, the sales of the top 100 real estate firms fell by 13.1% [2] - The transaction volume in 30 key cities decreased by 12% month-on-month and 17% year-on-year in August [5][1] Policy Impact - The cancellation of purchase restrictions in Beijing on August 8 had limited effects, with transaction volumes remaining stable despite a 16% increase in visitor numbers [9][1] - New policies in Shanghai introduced on August 25 did not significantly stimulate the market, with only slight improvements in certain segments [10][1] - The overall market is still waiting for a significant policy breakthrough as current data shows no signs of recovery [21][1] Future Expectations - There is an expectation of a 30% to 50% increase in new supply in September, driven by development cycles [19][1] - The stability of core cities and new product regulations may provide some assurance for the market, but overall caution is advised [6][1] Inventory and Market Dynamics - The inventory situation varies, with some cities like Changsha and Wuhan showing high turnover rates due to unique project designs [25][1] - The overall inventory in Wuhan is approximately 15 million square meters with a 21-month turnover cycle, while Changsha has about 5 million square meters with an 18-month cycle [30][1] Conclusion - The real estate market is characterized by significant challenges, including declining sales, reduced supply, and limited policy effectiveness. However, certain firms and cities are showing resilience, indicating potential areas for investment and recovery in the future.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The real estate market in August is overall sluggish, with transaction area in 30 key cities decreasing by 12% month-on-month and 17% year-on-year, only slightly above the levels seen during the Spring Festival [1] - The supply volume is at a near seven-year low, with a month-on-month decrease of 28% and a year-on-year decrease of 36% [1][5] - The top 100 real estate companies experienced a general decline in sales, but leading firms like Greentown, China Overseas, and Huafa saw month-on-month sales growth exceeding 30%, supported by core cities and high-end projects [1][2] Sales Performance - In August, the sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies decreased by 1.9% month-on-month and 18% year-on-year, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 13.1% [2] - There are significant disparities among the top 100 companies, with leading firms relying on high-end projects in core cities, while many companies outside the top 20 are seeing continuous sales declines [3] Market Dynamics - The first-tier cities' new housing market is undergoing a comprehensive adjustment, with transaction volumes experiencing greater declines than second and third-tier cities [1][13] - The average opening sales rate in the 30 key cities in August was approximately 41%, an increase of nearly 11 percentage points month-on-month and nearly 15 percentage points year-on-year [18] - The supply in first-tier cities has been decreasing for four consecutive months, with significant declines in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen [5][6] Regional Insights - Guangzhou is the only first-tier city with a month-on-month increase in supply, with over 400,000 square meters supplied in August [7] - Second and third-tier cities are in an adjustment phase, with an overall month-on-month transaction decrease of 11% and a year-on-year decrease of 16% [15] - Some cities like Chengdu, Qingdao, Tianjin, Xi'an, and Wuhan still recorded monthly transaction volumes exceeding 400,000 square meters [16] Policy Impact - New policies in Beijing have stimulated an increase in visitor numbers, with a 16% rise in visits, while the effects of Shanghai's policies have yet to be seen [13][14] - The supply-demand ratio has decreased to 0.69, indicating a significant drop in market activity, with many cities experiencing increased inventory pressure [22][23] Future Outlook - A low recovery in transaction volumes is expected in September, driven by the traditional peak season and policy relaxations in first-tier cities [29] - The market is anticipated to see a gradual recovery, but significant reversals are unlikely due to ongoing economic pressures and consumer confidence issues [34] Additional Insights - The land market has cooled down, with fewer core and quality plots being offered, leading to a seasonal low in overall transaction volume [26][28] - The performance of new regulatory products is declining, with significant disparities in sales rates among different projects [21] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state of the real estate market, sales performance, regional dynamics, policy impacts, and future outlook.

Core Viewpoint - The term "good house" has gained popularity in the real estate sector this year, but there is a misconception among buyers regarding the definition, particularly concerning the concept of "high usable area" which has led to misleading marketing practices [1][2]. Group 1: Misinterpretation of "Good House" - Many new housing projects are misleadingly marketing "usable area" by including non-counted areas such as balconies and terraces, resulting in claims of usable rates exceeding 100%, with some cities reporting rates as high as 130% [1]. - The typical definition of usable area is the ratio of the internal building area to the total building area, which generally should not exceed 100% due to shared public space [1]. Group 2: Market Trends and Consumer Preferences - Research indicates that new housing products with high usable rates have seen high sales rates in cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen, reflecting consumer preference for these offerings [1]. - However, this trend has led to some developers engaging in questionable practices to inflate usable area claims [1]. Group 3: True Definition of "Good House" - A true "good house" should focus on product design, construction quality, community services, green energy efficiency, and supporting services rather than just high usable area [2]. - The implementation of the "Residential Project Standards" in May aims to enhance safety, comfort, and sustainability in housing projects, emphasizing the importance of quality and service in defining a "good house" [2].

Core Viewpoint - The concept of a "good house" is being misinterpreted by consumers who equate it with high usable area ratios, leading to misleading marketing practices by developers [1][2]. Group 1: Usable Area Ratio Issues - Some new housing projects are marketing "usable area ratios" exceeding 100%, with reports of ratios reaching as high as 130% in certain cities [1]. - The usable area ratio is defined as the ratio of the usable area to the total building area, and typically should not exceed 100% due to shared public areas [1]. - The emergence of "new regulation products" with high usable area ratios has been noted, particularly in cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen, indicating consumer preference for these products [1]. Group 2: Quality Over Quantity - A true "good house" should focus on product design, construction quality, community services, green energy efficiency, and supporting services rather than just high usable area ratios [2]. - The implementation of the "Residential Project Standards" in May aims to enhance safety, comfort, and sustainability in housing projects, emphasizing the importance of quality over mere area metrics [2]. - Local governments are encouraged to align with these standards to accelerate the development of quality housing projects, which is the original intent of the "good house" policy [2].

Group 1 - The term "good house" has gained significant attention in the real estate sector this year, with some new housing projects misleadingly including non-buildable areas in the calculation of usable space, leading to claims of "usable rates exceeding 100%" [1] - In some cities, the usable rate has reportedly reached as high as 130%, which is unusual as the typical usable rate should not exceed 100% due to shared areas [1] - Research indicates that new products with high usable rates have seen high sales rates in cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen, reflecting buyer preference for these offerings, although this has led to questionable practices among some developers [1] Group 2 - A "good house" should focus on product design, construction quality, community services, green energy efficiency, and supporting services rather than just high usable space [2] - The implementation of the "Residential Project Standards" in May aims to enhance safety, comfort, and sustainability in housing projects, emphasizing the importance of quality and planning [2] - Local governments are encouraged to develop their own implementation versions of these standards to accelerate the progress of "good house" construction [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the real estate industry, specifically focusing on the performance of the top 100 real estate companies in July 2025, highlighting significant declines in sales and market activity across various cities [1][2][5][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Sales Performance**: In July 2025, the top 100 real estate companies achieved sales of 211 billion yuan, marking a 39% decrease month-on-month and a 25.8% decrease year-on-year. The cumulative sales for the first seven months showed a year-on-year decline of 12.7% [2]. - **Transaction Volume**: The transaction volume in 30 key cities fell by 28% month-on-month and 20% year-on-year. This marked the first negative cumulative transaction for the first seven months, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 1% [1][5]. - **Market Sentiment**: Overall market sentiment and purchasing emotions are low, further declining compared to the second quarter. Factors contributing to this include seasonal effects, weak supply, and cautious demand from buyers [6]. - **Supply Dynamics**: The new supply in July 2025 decreased by 20% month-on-month and 11% year-on-year across 30 key cities. The cumulative supply for the first seven months also saw an 18% year-on-year decline [3][4]. - **Inventory Levels**: Although overall inventory slightly decreased, the rapid decline in transaction volume led to an increase in inventory cycles in 18 cities, particularly in Shanghai and Shenzhen [15]. City-Specific Performance - **First-Tier Cities**: - Shenzhen's transaction volume fell by 30% month-on-month, with a new home absorption rate dropping to 4%, the lowest in a decade. Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou also experienced significant declines in transaction volumes [1][10][13]. - **Second-Tier Cities**: - Chengdu's market continued to cool, with a 10% month-on-month decline and a 21% year-on-year decline. Hangzhou faced substantial pressure, with a 58% month-on-month drop and a 36% year-on-year decline [11]. - **Emerging Markets**: Cities like Zhuhai and Dongguan saw an increase in transaction volumes due to a surge in supply, indicating a slight improvement in market activity [12]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Predictions**: The forecast for August indicates continued declines in transaction volumes, with year-on-year declines expected to widen. A potential recovery in September is anticipated due to seasonal effects, but year-on-year declines may remain consistent with previous months [20]. - **Regulatory Environment**: The recent focus of regulatory discussions has shifted towards urban renewal rather than direct real estate policies, suggesting a long-term strategy to enhance urban quality and indirectly support real estate development [28][30]. - **High-Quality Development**: The emphasis on high-quality development in urban renewal projects is highlighted, focusing on improving project quality rather than quantity, given the limited financial capacity of local governments [31]. This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the real estate market as discussed in the conference call, providing insights into sales performance, market sentiment, supply dynamics, and future expectations.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The real estate market in 2025 experienced an overall decline of 10.8% in the first half, with some state-owned enterprises like China Resources and China Merchants growing over 30%, indicating increased industry differentiation and significant market pressure [1][3] - Only three companies surpassed 100 billion in sales, namely Poly, Greentown, and China Overseas, while seven companies exceeded 50 billion, showing a slight decrease in industry concentration [1][4] Sales and Market Performance - In June 2025, the sales of the top 100 real estate companies increased by 14.7% month-on-month, but the year-on-year decline reached 22.8%, indicating persistent market pressure [3] - The average sales rate in June 2025 was 42%, up 13 percentage points from the previous year, driven by new regulatory products that significantly improved market absorption [1][8] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of new properties in 30 key cities decreased by 28% year-on-year, with first-tier cities experiencing a notable drop in supply [1][5] - The transaction volume in these cities fell by 26% year-on-year, with first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai seeing significant declines [5][6] Regional Market Insights - First-tier cities showed varied performance; Shanghai and Shenzhen faced substantial declines in transaction volumes, while Beijing maintained slight growth due to last year's high supply [6] - Second and third-tier cities experienced a 7% month-on-month decline and a 26% year-on-year decline, although some cities like Tianjin and Wuhan saw a recovery in transactions due to new regulatory products [7] Inventory and Investment Trends - The total inventory in 30 major cities decreased by 9.6% year-on-year, but over half of these cities saw an increase in the absorption cycle, indicating ongoing inventory pressure [10] - Private real estate companies have shown increased willingness to invest in land, with land acquisition amounts doubling year-on-year, suggesting structural investment opportunities in the market [9] Future Market Outlook - The second half of 2025 is expected to be challenging, with the third quarter typically being a low season for sales, while the fourth quarter may see a significant year-on-year decline due to high base effects from the previous year [15] - The competitive landscape in the real estate sector may change, with new entrants potentially emerging as market conditions evolve [22] Additional Insights - The second-hand housing market is under significant pressure, with a projected annual decline of nearly 10% [2][12] - The land market showed increased activity in June, but the enthusiasm in core cities has cooled, with fewer high-priced land deals [14][18] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the real estate industry.