第 5 周成交震荡，房企降杠杆有利未来高质量发展 [Table_Industry] 房地产 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 涂力磊(分析师) | 021-23185710 | tulilei@gtht.com | S0880525040101 | | | | 谢皓宇(分析师) | 010-83939826 | xiehaoyu@gtht.com | S0880518010002 | | | | 谢盐(分析师) | 021-23185696 | xieyan@gtht.com | S0880525040098 | | | 本报告导读： 上周（1 月 23 日-29 日）地产成交涨跌互现。上市公司业绩逐步进入披露期，近年 来房企持续降杠杆有助于未来高质量发展。维持行业"增持"评级。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 房地产《商业不动产 REITs，资产出表再添工具》 2026.01.31 房地产《核心销售趋于均衡，投资开 ...

Core Insights - The real estate development sector is experiencing a performance bottoming phase in 2024 due to declining gross margins and increased impairment losses, with no significant improvement observed in Q1 of this year [1] - Companies focusing on core cities and property leasing have shown performance growth despite the overall sector challenges [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Sample real estate companies are projected to achieve revenues of 4.03 trillion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 19%, with a net loss of 371.9 billion yuan, an increase in losses by 281.1 billion yuan compared to 2023 [1] - The gross margin for sample companies is expected to decrease by 2.2 percentage points in 2024, with A-share companies recording an additional impairment of 63.5 billion yuan compared to the previous year [1] Group 2: Leverage and Debt Structure - The overall asset-liability ratio for sample companies is expected to be 71.6% by the end of 2024, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous year, with state-owned enterprises showing a more significant reduction [2] - A-share development companies saw a 0.9 percentage point decrease in interest-bearing debt ratio in Q1 2025 compared to the end of the previous year, indicating a marginal improvement in debt structure [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investment Confidence - The sales concentration of the top 100 real estate companies is declining, with total sales expected to be 3.08 trillion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 27.4%, while the market share is projected to drop by 4.9 percentage points to 36.3% [3] - Despite a 31% year-on-year decline in land acquisition amounts for the top 100 companies, there was a 42% increase in land acquisition amounts in the first four months of this year, indicating improved investment confidence [3] Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - Companies with a focus on core city development, property management, and related sectors are recommended, including A-share companies such as Binjiang Group and China Merchants Shekou, as well as Hong Kong-listed companies like Beike and Yuexiu Property [4]