Core Insights - The penetration rate of entrusted construction projects in commodity housing continues to rise, reaching 7.23% in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to 2024 [1] - The development trends vary across different city tiers, with only second-tier cities showing an upward trend in penetration rates, while first-tier and third- and fourth-tier cities have experienced declines [1] - Leading entrusted construction companies are showing strong expansion intentions, indicating a likely continued increase in market penetration rates in the future [1] Penetration Rate Trends - The penetration rate for entrusted construction projects was 5% in Q1 2025, down 0.44 percentage points year-on-year; it surged to 8.7% in Q2, up 2.37 percentage points year-on-year, marking a new quarterly high; and in Q3, it was 7.12%, up 1.24 percentage points year-on-year [1] - If the upward trend continues into Q4, the annual penetration rate is expected to reach a new high [1] Project Distribution - In 2025, 84% of new entrusted construction projects are located in second-tier cities, 15% in third- and fourth-tier cities, and only 1% in first-tier cities; the Yangtze River Delta region leads with a 40% share [2] - Guangzhou has the highest number of entrusted construction projects among first-tier cities, with 9 projects, followed by Shanghai with 5, and Shenzhen and Beijing with 3 and 2, respectively [5] Second-Tier City Performance - The penetration rate in second-tier cities reached 9.89% in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 2.13 percentage points compared to 2024, making it the only tier to see significant growth [6] - Cities like Suzhou and Tianjin have penetration rates exceeding 30%, with Suzhou at 38.5% [8] Third- and Fourth-Tier City Trends - The penetration rate in third- and fourth-tier cities decreased to 6.15% in the first three quarters of 2025, down 1.67 percentage points from 2024, largely influenced by individual city performance [11] - Despite the current decline, there are long-term opportunities in these cities, particularly in areas like the Pearl River Delta [15] Competitive Landscape - The competition in second-tier cities is intensifying, making it crucial for companies to establish a presence in promising third- and fourth-tier cities or explore niche markets in first- and second-tier cities [17]

Core Viewpoint - Suzhou is experiencing rapid growth in the construction agency model, with a significant increase in market penetration, although it still represents a minority of the market, accounting for less than 20% of total transactions [2][4][23]. Group 1: Market Penetration and Trends - By 2024, 31% of new projects in Suzhou will be construction agency projects, making it the city with the highest penetration rate among monitored cities [3][4]. - The share of land acquired by state-owned enterprises (城投公司) has increased significantly, from 35% in 2021 to 86% in 2023, indicating a growing demand for construction agency projects [4][22]. - Despite the increasing number of construction agency projects, their market share remains low, with only 3% of total transaction volume in 2023 and 6% in 2024 [6][23]. Group 2: Project Performance and Location Impact - Some construction agency projects have high absorption rates, exceeding 80%, while others struggle with rates below 50%, primarily due to location differences [7][23]. - Projects located in core areas with better amenities tend to perform better in terms of sales compared to those in less favorable locations [7][10]. Group 3: Pricing Dynamics - Only 35% of construction agency projects have average selling prices above the city average, largely due to the nature of land acquisition by state-owned enterprises in non-core areas [8][10]. - High-quality, low-density projects can command higher prices, indicating that product quality can outweigh location advantages [13][10]. Group 4: Key Players and Future Opportunities - Major players in Suzhou's construction agency market include Longfor, CIFI, and Renheng, which together account for over 50% of the market [17][18]. - There are significant opportunities for expansion in areas like Xiangcheng and Wuzhong, where many state-owned land parcels remain undeveloped [22][23].

2024年重点城市代建渗透率达6.6%创四年新高, 结合代建发展长远前景来看，仍有继续提升的空间。 ◎ 文 / 谢杨春、吴嘉茗 随着房地产市场进入深度调整期，代建凭借其轻资产、专业化的优势，呈现快速发展的趋势。根据CRIC数据，2023年以来重点城市 新开盘（首开 同下）中代建项目透率迅速提升，尤其是二线城市格外明显。结合代建发展长远前景来看，仍有继续提升的空间。 2024年代建渗透率达6.6%创四年峰值 01 2025一季度因供应紧缺回落至3.3% 近期CRIC统计了32个城市销售项目的代建情况，整体来看，重点城市代建渗透率保持逐年攀升态势，与发达国家较高的代建渗透率 相比，我们认为未来还大有可提升空间。 值得注意的是，一线城市不仅代建比例低，且项目多以远郊刚需盘为主，而代建方基本是头部的代建企业。诸如2024年广州开盘的 典型代建项目绿城·揽江印月来看，代建方是绿城管理，委托方为广州市番禺交通建设投资有限公司。位置上，绿城·揽江印月则在环 城高速外，是板块内刚需项目。 实际上，2023年正是代建项目集中入市的分水岭。 2020年及以前代建项目渗透率极低，不超过0.5%。2021年、2022年比例也低于1% ...