季度走势而言，2025年前三季度单季度的中标数量持续走高，并且在第二季度、第三季度中标数量连续创新高，其中第三季度中标数量 达到172个，同、环比增幅分别达到37%和17%。 总体来看， 前三季度头部代建企业强烈的扩张意愿有效推动了中标数量的显著增长。 在代建市场逐渐成为红海、增量空间减少的环境 下，已经具备规模优势和品牌效应的企业仍在加速拓展，稳固自身优势。 ◎ 文/ 谢杨春、吴嘉茗 2025年1-9月，头部代建企业扩张的意愿强烈，新增规模TOP20企业新增签约建面为15771万平方米，同比增幅达到31%。在头部企业的积 极拓展带动下，前三季度代建项目的中标数量呈现稳步增长态势，尤其在第三季度，中标项目数量再创新高。 前三季度代建项目中标量同比增长18% 连续两个季度稳步抬升 01 根据招标网数据显示，2025年1-9月代建中标项目约为432个，同比增长18%，增速比2024年同期下降10个百分点，但是与半年度相比，增 速有所回升。 从监测的中标数据来看，绿城管理的中标数量断层领先其他企业，第三季度公开中标项目接近20个，其次龙湖龙智造、蓝城集团、旭辉 管理、金地集团等中标数量也显著高于其他企业。第三季度中 ...

房地产 2025 年 11 月 26 日 绿城管理控股(9979.HK) 行业竞争趋于理性，经营筑底分红较高 推荐（维持） 股价：3.12 港元 主要数据 | 行业 | 房地产 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.lcgljt.com | | 大股东/持股 | 绿城中国/71.63% | | 实际控制人 | 国务院国有资产监督管理委员会 | | 总股本(百万股) | 2000.00 | | 流通 A 股(百万股) | 0 | | 流通 B/H 股(百万股) | 2000.00 | | 总市值（亿港元） | 62.4 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 0 | | 每股净资产(元) | 1.79 | | 资产负债率(%) | 45.41 | 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】绿城管理控股（9979.HK）*半年报点评* 竞争加剧致业绩承压，回归理性增长*推荐20250825 【平安证券】绿城管理控股（9979.HK）*年报点评*规 模领先，竞争加剧*推荐20250331 证券分析师 | 杨侃 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060514080002 ...

Core Insights - The penetration rate of entrusted construction projects in commodity housing continues to rise, reaching 7.23% in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to 2024 [1] - The development trends vary across different city tiers, with only second-tier cities showing an upward trend in penetration rates, while first-tier and third- and fourth-tier cities have experienced declines [1] - Leading entrusted construction companies are showing strong expansion intentions, indicating a likely continued increase in market penetration rates in the future [1] Penetration Rate Trends - The penetration rate for entrusted construction projects was 5% in Q1 2025, down 0.44 percentage points year-on-year; it surged to 8.7% in Q2, up 2.37 percentage points year-on-year, marking a new quarterly high; and in Q3, it was 7.12%, up 1.24 percentage points year-on-year [1] - If the upward trend continues into Q4, the annual penetration rate is expected to reach a new high [1] Project Distribution - In 2025, 84% of new entrusted construction projects are located in second-tier cities, 15% in third- and fourth-tier cities, and only 1% in first-tier cities; the Yangtze River Delta region leads with a 40% share [2] - Guangzhou has the highest number of entrusted construction projects among first-tier cities, with 9 projects, followed by Shanghai with 5, and Shenzhen and Beijing with 3 and 2, respectively [5] Second-Tier City Performance - The penetration rate in second-tier cities reached 9.89% in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 2.13 percentage points compared to 2024, making it the only tier to see significant growth [6] - Cities like Suzhou and Tianjin have penetration rates exceeding 30%, with Suzhou at 38.5% [8] Third- and Fourth-Tier City Trends - The penetration rate in third- and fourth-tier cities decreased to 6.15% in the first three quarters of 2025, down 1.67 percentage points from 2024, largely influenced by individual city performance [11] - Despite the current decline, there are long-term opportunities in these cities, particularly in areas like the Pearl River Delta [15] Competitive Landscape - The competition in second-tier cities is intensifying, making it crucial for companies to establish a presence in promising third- and fourth-tier cities or explore niche markets in first- and second-tier cities [17]

Group 1: New Project Signings - In September 2025, several construction management companies secured new project contracts, including Green City Management winning multiple residential projects in Hangzhou and Wenzhou [1] - Runze Management won a significant affordable housing project in Dongguan, with a total construction area of approximately 84,500 square meters [1] - Jin Di Group's Zhejiang region signed contracts for various residential projects, including a low-density residential area in Hangzhou with a construction area of about 24,800 square meters [1] Group 2: Major Events - He Sheng Chuang Zhan reported a total contract sales area of approximately 47,591 square meters and a sales amount of about RMB 4.236 billion for the first eight months of 2025 [2] Group 3: Market Analysis - In September, residential properties accounted for 85% of the bidding information in the public market, with Zhejiang province being the leading area for project announcements, representing 54% of the total [6][8] - 95% of the projects were won by real estate development companies, with residential properties making up 70% of the winning bids [8] Group 4: Land Acquisition Trends - There has been an increase in land acquisition willingness among private real estate companies, with their share of land acquisition amounting to 13.4% among the top 100 companies from January to September 2025, a rise of 5.6 percentage points compared to 2024 [11] - Some small and medium-sized private companies are becoming important clients for construction management firms, providing new growth opportunities [11]

Core Insights - The report from the China Index Academy indicates a significant decline in land acquisition by local state-owned enterprises, while private real estate companies have shown an increased willingness to acquire land. In the first nine months of 2025, private enterprises accounted for 13.4% of the land acquisition amount among the top 100 companies, an increase of 5.6 percentage points compared to 2024 [1] Group 1: Land Acquisition Trends - There has been a notable decrease in land acquisition by local state-owned enterprises this year [1] - Private real estate companies are increasingly willing to acquire land, providing new opportunities for construction companies [1] - Some small and medium-sized private enterprises are becoming important clients for construction projects, enhancing their land acquisition intentions [1] Group 2: Project Developments - In September 2025, several typical construction companies secured new project contracts, including Green City Management and Run Di Management, which won multiple bids for residential and public housing projects [4] - The total contract sales area for He Sheng Chuang Zhan in the first eight months of 2025 reached approximately 47,591 square meters, with a sales amount of about RMB 4.236 billion [5] - Jin Di Management released an upgraded version of its "Client Service White Paper," focusing on enhancing service capabilities [6] Group 3: Market Dynamics - In September, residential properties accounted for 85% of the bidding information, with Zhejiang province being the leading area for project announcements, representing 54% of the total [8] - 95% of the projects were won by real estate development companies, with residential properties making up 70% of the winning bids [9]

Core Insights - The report from the China Index Academy highlights the ranking of real estate construction management companies, with Greentown Management leading in new signed contracts and sales volume for the first nine months of 2025 [1] Group 1: Company Rankings - Greentown Management achieved a new signed contract area of 27.9 million square meters, ranking first [1] - CIFI Construction Management and Runze Management followed in second and third place with new signed areas of 13.01 million square meters and 12.90 million square meters, respectively [1] Group 2: Sales Performance - Greentown Management also topped the sales chart with a contract sales amount of 70.6 billion yuan for the same period [1] - The report indicates that most residential properties currently require construction management companies for sales, emphasizing the importance of sales capability for project expansion [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights that Yuanyang Construction Management has been recognized for its strong capabilities in government construction projects, ranking 15th in the "2025 Top 20 Comprehensive Ability of Real Estate Construction Enterprises" [1][3] - In the first half of 2025, Yuanyang Construction Management expanded its project portfolio by securing 33 new projects, with a total signed project area of 5.62 million square meters, ranking 8th in the industry [3] - The company achieved a significant milestone in the second quarter of 2025, with new signed project area reaching the top 3 in the industry, indicating robust growth momentum [3] Group 2 - Yuanyang Construction Management has established a professional service system since its first government project in 2004, showcasing its deep experience and strong capabilities in the field [3] - The company emphasizes quality, progress, and safety management in its government construction projects, exemplified by its work in the Cixi government project, which earned it the title of "Excellent Government Construction Project" [3] - Yuanyang Construction Management offers comprehensive solutions across various sectors, including residential, commercial, office, hotel, elderly care, and industrial parks, leveraging its "project doctor" approach to enhance project value [3]

Core Viewpoint - Greentown Management achieved dual growth in scale and quality in its new expansion business during the first half of 2025, maintaining a leading position in the industry despite intensified competition in the construction management sector [1][4][10] Business Expansion - In the first half of 2025, Greentown Management's new expansion area reached 1,989 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, with new construction management fees amounting to approximately 5 billion yuan, up 19% from the previous year [1][5] - The proportion of new expansion in first- and second-tier cities remained high at 58%, focusing on economically developed cities such as Hangzhou, Nanjing, Shijiazhuang, and Suzhou [5][8] - The structure of new projects is continuously optimized, with the new expansion unit price rising to 251 yuan per square meter, a 5% increase year-on-year [5] Order Backlog and Delivery Capability - As of June 30, 2025, Greentown Management had a total order backlog of 126.5 million square meters, with four core city clusters accounting for 77% of this total [2][10] - The company delivered 45 projects with a total area of 4.65 million square meters in the first half of 2025, maintaining a leading delivery scale and a customer satisfaction rate of 92% [2][15] - The company expects to deliver nearly 10 million square meters in the second half of the year, with an annual total delivery scale projected to reach around 15 million square meters [16] Management Efficiency and Financial Performance - Since the second half of 2024, Greentown Management has implemented a series of management reforms, resulting in a 15-point increase in bid success rates and a 22% repeat commission rate [18][19] - Despite a decline in financial indicators due to market pressures, the company reported revenue of 1.374 billion yuan, a 17.7% decrease year-on-year, and a net profit of 273 million yuan, down 44.4% [2][26] - The company maintained a healthy cash position with 1.644 billion yuan in cash as of June 30, 2025, an 8% increase from the end of 2024, and no debt [29]

Core Viewpoint - CICC has upgraded the stock rating of Greentown Management Holdings (09979) to outperform the industry, maintaining a target price of HKD 3.2, reflecting improved front-end operational trends and high dividend yield support [1] Group 1: Front-end Operational Indicators - Positive changes in front-end operational indicators have been observed, with new expansion amount increasing by 19% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, corresponding to a construction fee of 251 CNY per square meter, up 5% year-on-year [2] - Operating cash flow net amount increased by 45% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating recovery [2][3] - From January to July, overall construction sales showed resilience, with growth outpacing the top 10 real estate companies by 14 percentage points [2] Group 2: Sales and Cash Flow Performance - From January to July, the company's construction sales amount reached 51.1 billion CNY, remaining stable compared to the same period last year, with improvements in project opening rates and site conversion rates [3] - Operating cash inflow for the first half of the year was 110 million CNY, with the coverage ratio of operating cash flow to net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 28 percentage points to 44% [3] Group 3: Project Expansion and Fee Stability - The company, as an industry leader, has a significant competitive advantage, with new signed construction contracts amounting to 5 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 19% year-on-year increase, maintaining a stable construction fee of 251 CNY per square meter [4] - By the end of 2024, the company has 15.2 billion CNY in hand, ensuring overall order coverage remains secure [4] Group 4: Dividend Yield Support - The company has historically emphasized shareholder returns, with a payout ratio exceeding 100% in 2022-2023 [5] - The company aims to optimize its dividend policy to provide long-term, stable, and sustainable returns to shareholders, with an estimated annual dividend yield of 9.5% if the per-share dividend remains consistent with 2024 [5] Group 5: Potential Catalysts - Potential catalysts include gradual stabilization of operations and performance, along with active fulfillment of dividend payouts [6]

Group 1: Industry Policy - The government continues to promote the reform of the government investment project construction agency system, with 14 provinces and cities issuing or revising management measures in the first half of 2025 to enhance project management professionalism and investment efficiency [1][8] - The management measures emphasize that the construction agency is responsible for project organization, investment control, quality, and schedule, with projects handed over to the user unit upon completion [8][9] - The new management trends include refined management, enhanced green construction and technology upgrades, and improved incentive and penalty mechanisms [9] Group 2: Land Acquisition by Urban Investment Companies - In the first half of 2025, urban investment and platform companies acquired over 22 million square meters of land, accounting for 45% of the total, which is a slight increase of 4% compared to the same period in 2024, but a decrease of 5 percentage points year-on-year [2][12] - The second quarter saw a decline in land acquisition share to 41%, down 8.7 percentage points from the first quarter and 14.4 percentage points from the same period in 2024 [12] Group 3: Corporate Insights - Several construction agency companies deepened their business layout through strategic partnerships, with 7 companies collaborating with various clients across multiple regions, indicating a trend towards national expansion [3][14] - The partnerships focus on government-enterprise cooperation, cross-industry integration, and emphasize smart and ecological construction [14][15] - The collaboration types include government partnerships, state-owned enterprise resource integration, and private enterprise cross-industry alliances, enhancing competitive advantages and project acquisition capabilities [15][16][17] Group 4: Key Projects - The Dragon Lake Longzhi project in Chengdu was delivered 40 days ahead of schedule, showcasing effective project management and cost control [20][21] - The project involved significant upgrades and marketing strategies, resulting in high sales performance and customer satisfaction [21][25] - The first half of 2025 saw 260 construction agency projects awarded, an 8% increase year-on-year, with a notable rise in the second quarter [4][25]