文/泽平宏观团队 现在社会上对房地产的看法分歧很大，有人说2026年买房就是高位站岗，还有人说三四线房子白送都不要，但北上广深可以闭眼买。 究竟买哪里的房子最保值？哪些城市的房价会再创新高？ 网上的很多看法，情绪大于逻辑，似是而非，缺少专业的分析。 这些年，出版了三本专著，研究了全球几十个国家的房地产百年历史，总结出了房价保值增值的核心秘密。 这说明什么？后房地产时代，不是所有房子都能保值，能穿越周期的硬通货只是少数。 有人会问："深圳为什么能排第一？成都、杭州为什么能进前五？"别急，每个保值率高的城市，都有自己的"核心优势"，咱们一个个拆解。 先看深圳，深圳房地产保值率为什么能拿第一？核心优势是"创新红利+年轻人口流入"，深圳是粤港澳大湾区的龙头，是全国创新最活跃的城市，诞生了 像华为、腾讯、比亚迪、大疆这样的世界级高科技企业，贡献了万亿级的产值，提供了百万级的高薪就业岗位。而且，深圳人口质量在全国首屈一指，在 泽平宏观和智联招聘联合发布的《中国城市95后人才吸引力排名》中，深圳连续两年位居全国榜首，深圳14-35岁青年人口超800万，占全市人口46%，年 轻、高学历、高收入的人口结构，带来了源源不断的购房 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the varying perspectives on real estate investment in China, emphasizing the importance of data-driven analysis over emotional opinions. It identifies the cities with the highest property value retention rates and the factors contributing to their resilience in the real estate market [2][3]. Summary by Sections Property Value Retention Analysis - A comprehensive analysis of 36 key cities in China reveals that Shenzhen has the highest property value retention rate, followed by Shanghai, Chengdu, Beijing, and Hangzhou, all exceeding 80%. In contrast, some third and fourth-tier cities, such as Hegang and Langfang, have retention rates below 60% [2][3]. Key Cities and Their Advantages - **Shenzhen**: Ranked first due to its "innovation dividend and young population influx." It is a hub for high-tech companies and has a significant number of young, high-earning residents, driving continuous housing demand [3]. - **Shanghai**: Holds the second position, attributed to its status as a "global financial center and scarce land supply." The decreasing land supply has led to increased demand and rapid sales in prime areas [4]. - **Chengdu**: Ranked third, benefiting from being a "new growth pole and commercial hub." It attracts a large population and has a vibrant commercial environment, making it appealing for real estate investment [6]. - **Beijing**: The top city in northern China, its strength lies in "capital endowment and scarce resources," particularly in education and healthcare, which are unmatched by other cities [8]. - **Hangzhou**: Fifth place is due to its "digital economy and business environment," with a thriving private sector and a reputation for being a desirable place to live [10]. Core Principles for Property Investment - Three core principles for property value retention are identified: 1. **Regional Focus**: Prioritize cities in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Chengdu-Chongqing economic zones, which have high retention rates due to population influx and strong industrial vitality [12]. 2. **Urban Core Areas**: Invest in central urban areas of first-tier and strong second-tier cities, where land is scarce and demand is robust [12]. 3. **Property Characteristics**: Look for properties near metro lines, in good school districts, and those that are newer or well-maintained, as these have better liquidity and resilience against market downturns [12]. Practical Investment Recommendations - For buyers: Focus on "core cities and core locations," particularly properties along metro lines with school district advantages for long-term value retention [13]. - For sellers: Assess population trends in the city; in areas experiencing population decline, it is advisable to sell quickly regardless of current prices, while properties in prime areas should be held for potential appreciation [13].