Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing structural changes with a focus on both existing and new properties, as well as a widening differentiation among regions [1][2][4] - Recent policies aimed at stabilizing the market, such as tax refunds for housing exchanges and lower mortgage rates, have led to increased activity in certain cities, particularly in the second-hand housing market [1][2] Group 1: Policy Impact - Recent policy adjustments in cities like Beijing, Shenzhen, and Chengdu have lowered purchasing thresholds and improved transaction efficiency, benefiting first-time buyers and those looking to upgrade their homes [1][2] - The introduction of tax reduction policies has increased interest in properties that are less than two years old, leading to a notable rise in transactions [1] Group 2: Market Trends - By 2025, the proportion of second-hand housing transactions is expected to rise to 44.6% of total housing transactions, indicating a growing significance of the second-hand market [2] - Major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou are seeing over 60% of their residential transaction volumes come from second-hand properties, highlighting a shift in market dynamics [2] Group 3: Regional Differentiation - There is a clear differentiation in sales performance among various districts and projects within the same city, with high-quality new developments achieving over 70% sales rates, while older properties struggle [3] - Core cities are witnessing a strong demand for premium land parcels, reflecting a preference for quality over quantity in real estate development [3] Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of the end of 2025, the total area of unsold commercial housing is projected to decrease to 76,632 million square meters, indicating effective supply-side measures [4] - The collaboration between supply-side controls and demand-side stimulus is expected to lead to a more balanced and optimized real estate market [4] Group 5: Long-term Outlook - Despite a decline in overall sales volume, there remains a long-term demand for housing driven by changing population dynamics and the need for diversified housing solutions [5] - The real estate market is transitioning towards a model that better aligns housing supply with population movement and industrial development, aiming to meet the diverse needs of different demographic groups [5]

值得注意的是，不同城市之间、城市内部不同区位之间呈现"核心更稳、优质更强"的分化特征。经济新 动能成长更快的城市或区域房地产市场表现更为活跃，前期库存压力较小的市场整体更活跃。同时，各 地"好房子"项目普遍呈现热销状态。 记者走访北京、武汉、青岛、成都等地房地产市场发现，楼市呈现出明显的板块分化特征，相同区域不 同项目的销售表现也冷热不均。例如在武汉武昌、江岸、江汉等中心城区核心地段的高品质住宅新盘， 首次开盘去化率普遍能达到70%以上，而部分存量老盘，受制于产品力不足等因素，去化周期相对更 长。 从70个大中城市商品住宅价格指数看，上海、杭州等城市的新房价格表现更为亮眼。此外，土地市场的 分化更为明显，核心城市优质地段的出让地块持续受到开发企业青睐。 房地产是不动产，房地产市场是以城市为单元的市场，城市政府应当充分用好调控自主权，因城施策、 精准施策、一城一策。吴璟说，当前大部分城市房地产市场承压的核心原因在于此前供需结构性错配导 致的库存压力，因此供给端坚持"控增量、去库存、优供给"是市场整体回暖的先决条件。这已转化为地 方政府和企业的理性行为，供应压力较大的城市，政府不再盲目供地，企业不再盲目拿地上项目 ...