光大证券认为，展望2026年，随着前期一揽子房地产政策的持续落地，地方政府楼市调控自主性提升， 区域分化和城市分化进一步加深。同时，随着供给侧逐步出清，部分信用优势明显的龙头央国企地产企 业将持续受益于竞争结构优化，实现经营业绩的企稳回升。 中邮证券指出，重要文章《改善和稳定房地产市场预期》明确提出"政策要一次性给足，不能采取添油 战术"，并强调房地产"显著的金融资产属性"，标志着政策思路从分散调控转向系统性发力，2026年地 产市场企稳值得期待。 截至2026年1月8日 14:36，房地产ETF(512200)一度涨超2%，现涨1.76%， 冲击5连涨。盘中换手 3.82%，成交1.85亿元。跟踪指数中证全指房地产指数成分股上海九百上涨10.00%，大名城上涨6.89%， 三湘印象上涨6.48%，新城控股，城投控股等个股跟涨。 消息面上，2025年一线城市二手房市场的表现相对更为抢眼。据统计，上海二手房成交量接近25.4万 套，创下近4年来新高。深圳二手房共成交6.82万套，同比增长5.7%，其中住宅成交5.62万套，同比增 长3.2%。1月成为楼市政策以及市场走向的关键观察期。 2025年全年，房地产市场 ...

新的交税规定意味着，购房2年内将房屋出售的，增值税缴纳比例减少2个百分点，起到减税作用。但需 要达到免征增值税的时间门槛没有缩短，与早前规定保持一致。 具体举例，以一套300万总价出售的房屋计算，按照之前的税务法规，2年内出售需要缴纳约15万元的增 值税。从2026年元旦开始，需要缴纳的增值税下降至9万元，卖房人可以节省6万元左右的税费。 公告还明确，2026年1月1日前，个人销售住房涉及的增值税尚未申报缴纳的，符合本公告规定的可按本 公告执行，对惠及增值税降低的人群进一步扩大。 需要提及的是，房地产业内人士解释，购房2年的起算时间，以获得契税票或房产证为优先的时间点开 始计算。 另外，从事房产交易人士表示，虽然名称为"增值税"，但并非按房产增值部分作为征收基准，而是以房 产最终出售交易过户的总金额为增收基准。广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉认为，此次降低 购房2年内出售房屋的增值税，一是降低交易成本、减少交易摩擦，将受交易税费成本影响的门槛上的 需求释放出来；二是缓解因为交易成本高而导致的卖房困难，特别是减少为了卖房不得不大尺度降价的 案例；三是降低卖旧买新的循环阻力，促进二手房和新房、刚需和改善的循 ...

证券研究报告·行业深度报告·房地产 房地产行业深度报告 2026 年房地产行业年度策略——市场逐步 探底向稳，龙头房企率先修复 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 12 月 19 日 证券分析师 姜好幸 执业证书：S0600525110001 jianghx@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -19% -15% -11% -7% -3% 1% 5% 9% 13% 17% 2024/12/19 2025/4/19 2025/8/18 2025/12/17 房地产 沪深300 相关研究 《楼市成交持续调整，推动新型城市 基础设施建设》 2025-07-21 《楼市成交季节性调整，加大闲置存 量土储回收力度》 2025-07-15 东吴证券研究所 1 / 22 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 房地产市场正进入阶段性修复通道，供需修复与库存去化改善或加速市 场企稳。整体来看，新房销售虽仍处于恢复过程中，但降幅已较前期明 显收窄，市场企稳迹象逐步显现。2025 年 1-11 月，全国商品房累计销 售面积 78702 万平方米，同比-7.8%，价格方面，随着供给 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [5] Core Views - In November, the sales area and sales amount decreased by 18.6% and 27.6% year-on-year, respectively, with the decline in sales amount widening while the decline in sales area narrowed [1][2] - The average residential sales price in November was 9,594 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.1%, indicating significant market pressure [1][2] - The central economic work conference emphasized stability in real estate policies for the coming year, focusing on using existing stock for affordable housing, but did not mention strong expectations for mortgage subsidies [3] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - November's residential sales area decreased by 18.6% year-on-year, with a slight improvement in the decline compared to the previous month [1] - The cumulative sales area from January to November showed a decline of 8.1%, which is a worsening of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The sales amount in November fell by 27.6% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 3.03 percentage points from the previous month [1][2] Investment and Construction - The industry development investment in November decreased by 30.3% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 7.3 percentage points from the previous month [2] - New construction area in November was down by 27.6% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than the previous month [2] - The completion area also saw a significant decline of 25.5% year-on-year, with the decline worsening by 25.4 percentage points from the previous month [2] Funding Sources - The funds received in November decreased by 32.5% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 10.6 percentage points from the previous month [2] - Personal mortgage loans fell by 35.4% year-on-year, indicating a tightening in funding availability [2] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on second-hand housing transaction leaders such as Beike, regional leaders like Binjiang Group, quality state-owned enterprises like Yuexiu Property, and private enterprises with valuation recovery potential like New Town Holdings [3] - It also recommends paying attention to industry leaders among central state-owned enterprises such as China Resources Land, China Overseas Development, and Greentown China [3]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the real estate industry Core Insights - The real estate market in China has shown strong sensitivity to policy adjustments since the housing reform in 1998, with three significant downturns and recoveries closely linked to policy interventions [2][4] - Recent policy relaxations, such as the "three arrows" policy and the "442" policy, have only resulted in temporary rebounds, indicating a weakening sensitivity of the market to policy changes [2][12] - The current downturn is characterized by a significant decline in both housing prices and sales, with the investment amount in October reaching the lowest level since 2013 [2][20] Summary by Sections 1. Interaction Between Real Estate Adjustments and Policy Regulation - Policy regulation has been the core driver of changes in the real estate market, with each downturn and recovery phase closely tied to policy adjustments [5] - The first adjustment occurred during the global financial crisis in 2008, where a significant stimulus plan led to a rapid recovery in sales [5][6] - The second adjustment in 2011-2012 saw a shift to a more relaxed monetary policy, which helped the market recover after a period of decline [6][7] - The third adjustment in 2014-2015 involved strict regulations to curb speculation, followed by a shift to "de-stocking" policies that eventually led to market recovery [7][8] 2. Current Downturn and Market Sensitivity - The current downturn has seen a significant reduction in the market's sensitivity to policy changes, with the impact of recent policies being less effective than in previous cycles [9][12] - Factors contributing to this include a slower-than-expected policy implementation, a systemic reduction in residents' willingness to leverage, and rising actual mortgage rates [13][14] 3. Market Performance in 2025 - The real estate market has continued to face downward pressure, with a notable decline in second-hand housing prices and overall sales volume [15][20] - From January to October 2025, the cumulative sales area and sales amount of commercial housing have decreased by 6.8% and 9.6% respectively, reaching levels comparable to 2010 [20] - Investment in real estate has also contracted significantly, with October's investment amount marking a new low since 2013 [25][29] 4. Future Policy Space and Directions - Future policies are expected to focus on stabilizing the market through both short-term stimulus and long-term structural adjustments [35][38] - The report highlights the need for a balanced approach that includes lowering mortgage rates and improving income distribution to enhance residents' purchasing power [64][68] - The establishment of a more mature regulatory framework for the real estate market, including measures to prevent risks associated with unfinished projects and to promote rental markets, is also emphasized [68][69]

可以预见，2026年的中国房地产市场，将在多方协同作用下，呈现出稳健向好的发展态势。这一趋势的 形成，离不开2025年关键之年的政策铺垫与市场信号的逐步明朗。 在信贷政策方面，央行与金融监管部门持续发力，2025年首套住房商业性个人住房贷款利率普遍降至 3.5%区间，部分城市还针对刚需购房者额外下浮20个基点。公积金贷款利率也同步下调0.25个百分点， 上海、杭州等城市的首套房公积金利率甚至降至2.6%的历史低位。地方层面，贵阳贵安明确2026年前 首套、二套住房商业贷款的最低首付比例统一为15%；武汉则将双缴存人家庭公积金贷款最高额度提升 至150万元，并对多孩家庭购房提供额外的贷款上浮优惠。在财政补贴方面，三四线城市积极探索"以旧 换新"模式，部分城市甚至提供高达房价20%的财政补贴。例如，武汉对三孩家庭购房补贴高达12万 元，雅安市则将补贴范围扩大至快递小哥、外卖骑手等14类新就业群体。 在购房门槛优化方面，多地调整了住房套数的认定标准。贵阳市明确，居民家庭在拟购房区域名下无成 套住房的，无论贷款是否结清均按首套执行，且已挂牌出售的住房不计入家庭套数；武汉市则规定， 2025年10月至2026年6月期间 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new policy issued by Zhaoqing City aims to promote stable and healthy development in the real estate market through a comprehensive set of 25 measures targeting both supply and demand sides, enhancing the housing market's overall structure and quality [2]. Demand-Side Support - The new policy introduces significant benefits to stimulate reasonable housing demand, addressing concerns related to thresholds, costs, and convenience for homebuyers [3]. - A new "old-for-new" collaboration mechanism is launched, allowing buyers to receive a full refund of their deposit if their old property does not sell, while the developer covers the intermediary fees if the transaction is successful [3]. - The policy optimizes housing credit standards, allowing families with multiple children or elderly dependents to reduce their recognized housing unit count, thus enabling more families to benefit from first-home loan policies [3]. - The commercial loan to provident fund loan ("商转公") policy receives clear support, and the provident fund loan no longer distinguishes between ordinary and non-ordinary residential properties, directly supporting improved housing demand [3]. - The provident fund withdrawal policy is significantly relaxed, allowing full withdrawal upon account closure and covering both the initial payment and total principal and interest for first-time withdrawals to repay housing loans [3]. - The policy clarifies the rights of homebuyers, allowing for household registration and school enrollment based on the online signed contract, enabling children to enjoy compulsory education benefits [3]. Supply-Side Measures - The new policy focuses on reducing current inventory pressure while optimizing future supply to promote high-quality industry development [5]. - Inventory reduction strategies shift from a "city-wide" approach to a more precise "one area, one policy" strategy, tailoring solutions to the inventory characteristics of different regions [5]. - The policy encourages converting existing commercial properties into affordable housing and talent apartments, broadening the channels for inventory digestion [5]. - A "one enterprise, one policy" support mechanism is established to assist real estate companies in revitalizing existing land and stalled projects [5]. - The policy emphasizes scientific planning for land supply, prioritizing quality plots and supporting real estate projects that align with local characteristics [5]. - The approval process is streamlined with measures like "land acquisition immediately followed by construction" and "housing delivery immediately followed by certification," significantly enhancing project implementation efficiency [5]. - The policy alleviates corporate burdens by removing restrictions on housing price filings and allowing deferred payment of urban infrastructure fees for existing housing projects, easing financial pressures on developers [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4][12]. Core Views - The company reported total revenue of 23.1 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.1%. However, net income decreased by 27.8% to 1.286 billion yuan [1][4]. - The net revenue from second-hand housing transaction services fell by 3.6% to 6 billion yuan, while new housing transaction services saw a decline of 14.1% to 6.6 billion yuan [1][4]. - The adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was 1.286 billion yuan, reflecting a significant drop compared to the previous year [2][4]. - The company maintained a strong cash position with cash and short-term investments totaling 55.7 billion yuan, and continued share repurchases amounting to 281 million USD in Q3 [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q3 2025 was 23.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.1%. The total transaction value (GTV) was 736.7 billion yuan, remaining stable year-on-year [1][2]. - The gross margin decreased to 21.4%, down from 22.7% in the same period last year, primarily due to reduced contributions from second-hand and new housing transaction services [2][4]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected to be 5.601 billion yuan, with a decline of 22.3% expected in 2025 [11]. Future Projections - Revenue estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 93.62 billion yuan, 92.83 billion yuan, and 96.16 billion yuan, respectively [11]. - The adjusted EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is forecasted to be 0.71 USD, 0.97 USD, and 1.10 USD, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23.5X, 17.2X, and 15.3X [2][11]. Market Position - The company is recognized for its leading position in the market, and its scarcity as an investment target supports the "Buy" rating [2][4].

Core Insights - The official report indicates that the second-hand housing market in Xi'an saw both month-on-month and year-on-year increases in September, with growth rates of 4.34% and 1.58% respectively [1][2] - The total area of second-hand housing registered in September was approximately 843,300 square meters, with 7,570 residential units signed, covering an area of 778,700 square meters [1][2] Market Performance - In September, Xi'an recorded a total of 7,570 second-hand housing transactions, bringing the total for the first nine months of the year to 74,153 units, significantly higher than the same period last year [5] - The increase in transactions in Xi'an contrasts with many other cities, where the market has been sluggish, except for major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, which also reported increases due to recent policy adjustments [3] Factors Influencing the Market - The surge in Xi'an's second-hand housing market is attributed to three main factors: strong demand from first-time buyers, pressure from new home prices leading to a shift towards second-hand homes, and the competitive nature of high-gifted properties [6] - Recent policy changes in Xi'an, such as the introduction of design guidelines for residential projects, are expected to impact the market dynamics, particularly affecting the availability of high-efficiency properties [6] Price Trends - Despite the increase in transaction volume, the average price of second-hand homes in Xi'an saw a month-on-month decline of 1.30% in September, indicating a continued downward trend in pricing [6] - Some quality second-hand properties have begun to see price increases, particularly in prime areas, suggesting a potential shift in market sentiment [7] Future Outlook - The ongoing demand for second-hand homes is expected to continue, with quality properties in core areas maintaining a premium, while older properties may face further depreciation in value [10]

Core Insights - The real estate market in key cities remains active during the "Golden October" holiday, with significant increases in transaction volumes and viewings, particularly in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen [2][3][4] - Despite the positive performance in core cities, the overall national real estate market is still undergoing adjustments, with a notable divergence between first/second-tier cities and third/fourth-tier cities [11][12] Market Performance - During the holiday, Beijing's new home daily transaction volume increased by 30.8% year-on-year, while Shanghai's volume rose by 72% and Shenzhen's by 40% to 50% compared to regular days [4][11] - In Chongqing, the Longfor Group's project achieved a remarkable sales figure of 6.2 billion yuan during the holiday, marking a 256% increase compared to September [4] - The average daily transaction volume for new homes in 30 major cities during the holiday was 671 units, remaining flat compared to the same period in 2024, indicating weaker performance in third and fourth-tier cities [11][12] Policy and Financial Support - Recent policy adjustments since August have lowered purchasing thresholds, stimulating demand in core cities, with Beijing and Shanghai easing restrictions on home purchases [9][14] - Various cities have introduced support measures, such as increasing housing provident fund loan limits and providing interest subsidies for first-time homebuyers [14][16] - The expectation of further financial policy support, including potential reductions in the 5-year LPR, could lower home purchasing costs [18] Sales Strategies and Promotions - Real estate companies are employing diverse marketing strategies, including special pricing and promotional offers, to attract buyers during the holiday [5][7][8] - In Shenzhen, significant discounts and promotional activities, such as "0 down payment" offers, have been introduced to boost sales [7][8] - The trend of "price for volume" strategies is evident, particularly in second-tier cities, where quality projects are seeing increased buyer interest [12][13] Future Outlook - The real estate market is expected to continue showing a divided performance, with core cities likely to see sustained demand due to new supply entering the market [12][13] - The ongoing adjustments in policies and financial tools are anticipated to further stimulate the market, particularly in first-tier cities [18]