Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market is showing signs of recovery, with core city demand stabilizing and valuations reaching a bottom, suggesting a potential "small spring" in 2026, although a full market rebound still faces challenges [4][11][30]. Market Trends - As of January 2026, the year-on-year decline in second-hand housing transaction area in 22 cities narrowed from 26.8% to 13.0%, with a month-on-month increase in transaction area reaching 279.0 million square meters, the highest since June 2025, and a year-on-year growth of 17.7% [6][14]. - Real-time signing data from major cities indicates a significant improvement in second-hand housing transactions, with a 27.0% year-on-year increase and an 18.5% month-on-month increase in January 2026 [6][9]. Price Trends - The decline in second-hand housing prices has slowed, with the national average listing price in January 2026 decreasing by only 0.7% month-on-month, compared to a 1.3% decline in the previous six months [10][13]. - In January 2026, the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities was 12,900 yuan per square meter, with a month-on-month decline of 0.85%, indicating a narrowing of the price drop [13]. Regional Performance - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou have shown strong performance in second-hand housing transactions, with Beijing's net signing volume exceeding 15,000 units in January, marking a stable trend above 14,000 units for three consecutive months [16][17]. - The "iceberg index" for January 2026 indicates a 14% month-on-month increase in real-time transactions across 26 key cities, with Xiamen leading at a 34% increase [18]. Policy Developments - Shanghai has initiated a program to purchase second-hand housing for rental purposes, focusing on small units and requiring buyers to also purchase new homes in the same district [39][40]. - The "old-for-new" policy aims to reduce transaction costs for buyers and improve the supply of rental housing, while also enhancing the liquidity of the new housing market [41][42]. Future Outlook - Experts anticipate a "small spring" in the real estate market, driven by improved demand in core cities and the release of pent-up demand as policies take effect [11][30][31]. - The overall recovery of the national housing market is expected to take time, with ongoing monitoring of key indicators such as price stability and transaction volumes necessary to assess the market's trajectory [35].

12月份，一线城市二手住宅销售价格同比下降7.0%，降幅比上月扩大1.2个百分点。其中，北京、上 海、广州和深圳分别下降8.5%、6.1%、7.8%和5.4%。二、三线城市二手住宅销售价格同比均下降 6.0%，降幅分别扩大0.4个和0.2个百分点。 根据58安居客研究院对46个重点城市的监测，2025年，二手房找房人数占比月均值达到65.4%，同比再 升2.8个百分点。其中，上海、郑州等城市找房人数占比提升尤为显著。2025年12月份，上海二手房成 交量突破2.2万套，北京二手房网签量达到1.72万套，环比增长19.1%，创近9个月新高。尤其是在北京 新政落地后，安居客平台二手房近一周有效连接数增长16%，留电用户增长20%，预约带看确定量增长 13%，观望情绪逐步消解。 二手房"以价换量"趋势不变。58安居客研究院院长张波分析，70个大中城市二手住宅同比指数超过八成 低于95，反映出二手房市场中房东积极调整价格的节奏仍在持续。"市场需求并未消失，而是对价格敏 感性在增强，二手房'价跌量升'也与这一趋势吻合"。 1月19日，国家统计局发布《2025年12月份70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格变动情况》。整体来看， ...