7月11日，四川长虹（600839）发布一则公告，其下属公司与苏宁的一起司法纠纷诉讼案有了新进展， 该案件涉案金额超过8.9亿元，苏宁方面一审败诉后不服提起上诉，目前该案二审已立案获受理。 时间回溯到2024年4月22日，四川长虹下属子公司长虹佳华控股有限公司（03991.HK）之下属子公司四 川长虹佳华数字技术有限公司（以下简称"佳华数字"）向江苏省南京市中级人民法院（以下简称"南京 中院"）提交了诉状，请求判令苏宁易购集团股份有限公司苏宁采购中心（以下简称"苏宁采购中心"） 等被告支付货款本金7.22亿元、资金占用费1.73亿元及抵押房产折价或拍卖、变卖后的优先受偿权，佳 华数字于2024年5月收到南京中院送达的《受理案件通知书》等相关法律文件。 时隔一年之后，佳华数字于2025年5月26日收到南京中院送达的《民事判决书》，判决被告苏宁采购中 心支付原告佳华数字货款本金7.2亿元，资金占用损失包括以7.06亿元为基数，计算至2024年9月13日的 损失，金额为1.25亿元；及以7.06亿元为基数，自2024年9月14日起按同期全国银行间同业拆借中心公布 的一年期贷款市场报价利率的1.3倍计算至实际付清之日 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption to expand domestic demand and strengthen the domestic circulation, with Shaanxi province actively implementing consumption-boosting initiatives in response to national strategies [1] Group 1: Consumption Growth Data - From January to May, Shaanxi's retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.2% year-on-year, building on last year's rapid growth, with commodity retail sales up by 6.3% and catering revenue up by 5.9% [1] - Eight cities, including Tongchuan, Baoji, and Xianyang, achieved double-digit growth in retail sales of consumer goods [1] - Specific categories such as grain and oil, tobacco and alcohol, and cultural office supplies saw year-on-year growth of 15.9%, 7.2%, and 6.3% respectively [1] Group 2: Impact of Trade-in Policies - The trade-in policy has been a significant driver of consumption upgrades, continuously releasing policy dividends and injecting momentum into economic growth [1] - In the first half of the year, the sales revenue of Shaanxi Suning increased by 40% year-on-year, with store foot traffic up by 45%, attributed to various subsidies [2] - The sales of new energy vehicles in Shaanxi saw a year-on-year increase of 18.5% in the first five months, fueled by ongoing automotive consumption subsidies [2] Group 3: Financial Support and Policy Implementation - Shaanxi secured 7.4 billion yuan in national subsidy funds to support the trade-in policy, implementing a combination of strategies including policy stacking, category expansion, service optimization, market regulation, and promotional guidance [3] - As of June 18, Shaanxi's trade-in program facilitated the exchange of 737.77 million items, with 5.845 billion yuan in funds applied for, driving a total consumption of 48.675 billion yuan, resulting in a leverage ratio of 8.33 [4] Group 4: Innovative Consumer Experiences - Shaanxi's commercial institutions are innovating shopping experiences, enhancing service offerings, and creating diverse and personalized experiences for consumers [4] - The Seg International Shopping Center in Xi'an introduced an immersive shopping experience with activities like bird performances and interactive elements, aiming to attract consumers through engaging experiences [4] - New types of shopping districts are emerging, integrating tourism and commerce to provide enhanced consumer experiences, supported by various promotional measures [5] Group 5: Future Consumption Strategies - Shaanxi plans to continue optimizing consumption policies and innovating consumption models in the second half of the year to further tap into consumption potential [5] - Collaborative efforts with local governments, cultural tourism enterprises, and financial institutions are being made to promote high-quality service consumption and organize large-scale cultural events [5]

上半年，中国经济运行总体平稳，彰显韧性。货币政策、财政政策协同发力、相互配合，强化政策工具 逆周期调节功能，共同支持实体经济发展：货币政策维持"适度宽松"总基调，并强化结构性支持；财政 政策加力提效，突出"两新""两重"导向。 展望下半年，货币政策方面，降准降息仍有空间，以进一步降低实体经济融资成本、释放流动性。在结 构性货币政策工具创新方面，上海"先行先试"具有示范意义，后续相关举措有望逐步向其他地区推广。 财政政策方面，超长期特别国债资金在大规模设备更新、消费品以旧换新等重点领域加快落地，推动投 资消费。新型政策性金融工具预计将在三季度推出，可能由政策性银行发行专项债券，筹集资金定向投 入科技创新、数字经济等关键领域，弥补项目资本金不足，助力产业升级。 赵伟：上半年经济总体运行良好，外需强劲与内需改善共同构成支撑，预计上半年GDP增速在5%以 上。一季度经济开局良好，实际GDP增速5.4%。4月以来，经济延续向好趋势。拆分结构看，出口仍是 经济最主要的支撑力量，"抢出口"推动1至5月出口同比增长6%，相应拉动制造业生产增长6.9%。1至5 月固定资产投资增速3.7%，也高于2024年底的3.2%，主要得益 ...

SHMET 网讯： 沪铝近日走出弱势反弹行情，主力合约以20750元/吨创下阶段性高点。虽然国内铝库存偏低对铝价构成支撑，但下游消费淡季的特征也在愈加明显，因此预 计沪铝后市上行空间将有限。 国内电解铝产量高位运行 电解铝进口方面，自2020年以来，中国原铝进口量保持强势增长势头，实现了向铝锭进口国的转变。2024年中国累计进口电解铝为213.6万吨，占国内总供 应的比例约4.63%。步入2025年，虽然前3个月中国原铝的进口量不及去年同期水平，但仍处于近五年历史同期高位。4月原铝进口量同环比均实现增长。据 海关总署数据显示，5月我国原铝进口量为22.32万吨，环比减少10.9%，同比增加41.4%。1-5月国内原铝累计进口总量约105.75万吨，同比减少3.7%。5月国 内原铝进口主要来源国为俄罗斯联邦、印度尼西亚、印度、马来西亚、澳大利亚、伊朗等国家及地区，其中5月从俄罗斯进口的原铝总量约20.83万吨，环比 增长12.44%，占5月进口量的93.3%。自去年11月以来，中国自俄罗斯进口原铝的占比快速提升。俄罗斯之所以成为国内原铝进口的第一来源国，主要由于 欧美对俄铝的制裁加深了全球铝锭供应结构性矛盾。在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive market experienced record sales in June 2025, driven by government subsidies and aggressive pricing strategies from manufacturers, leading to significant shifts in market dynamics among domestic, joint venture, and luxury brands [2][3][4][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - In June 2025, retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 2.084 million units, a year-on-year increase of 18.1% and a month-on-month increase of 7.6% [3]. - The first half of 2025 saw cumulative retail sales of 10.901 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.8% [3]. - Domestic brands achieved a retail volume of 1.34 million units in June, marking a year-on-year increase of 30% and a market share of 64.2% [8]. Group 2: Factors Driving Growth - The "two new" policy subsidies significantly reduced consumer costs, with 70% of private car buyers benefiting from the vehicle trade-in program [4][5]. - A surge in sales was also attributed to manufacturers lowering prices to boost sales as they approached mid-year targets, with over ten brands participating in price cuts [6][7]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape has shifted, with domestic brands gaining pricing power but facing challenges from aggressive price wars, leading to a breakdown of traditional pricing structures [11][12]. - Joint venture brands showed signs of recovery, with notable sales increases for major players like FAW-Volkswagen and SAIC-GM, indicating a stabilization of their market positions [22][23][25]. Group 4: Luxury Market Decline - The luxury vehicle segment is experiencing a downturn, with traditional luxury brands losing market share to both domestic and joint venture brands, marking a significant shift in consumer preferences [31][39]. - Despite the overall decline, Audi managed to achieve a year-on-year sales increase of 15.7% in the first half of 2025, highlighting potential opportunities for luxury brands that adapt to local market conditions [41][43].

文：国金宏观宋雪涛/ 联系人孙永乐 预计三、四季度CPI同比为-0.1%、0%；PPI同比为-2.5%、-2.1%；GDP平减指数 为-0.9%、-0.6%。 一、 CPI的下半年展望 相比于食品和原油价格对CPI的拖累，年初以来核心CPI震荡上行，6月核心CPI同比0.7%，创下2024年5月以来新高，核心商品取代服务成为核心CPI 的主要支撑。 一方面，随着服务消费完成初步修复，服务消费增速小幅回落，2025年1-5月服务零售同比5.2%，低于2023、2024年的20%、6.2%。需求端增速回 落叠加供给端的修复，2025年1-6月服务CPI同比均值为0.4%，仅拉动CPI同比增长0.17个百分点（服务占CPI权重的45%左右），显著低于2024年同 期0.9%的增速，也低于核心CPI增速。 另一方面，受益于以旧换新政策以及居民内生动力修复，今年以来商品消费增速明显上行，1-5月商品零售同比增长5.1%，带动核心商品CPI同比震荡 上行至6月的1%左右，拉动CPI同比增长0.33个百分点（核心商品占比在34%左右），显著高于补贴之前的商品价格走势。 旅游价格明显走弱，一方面是国内文旅消费修复进入瓶颈期。 ...

Economic Indicators - As of June 2025, PPI has experienced 33 consecutive months of year-on-year negative growth, while CPI has remained below 1% for 28 months[3] - The GDP deflator index has shown negative growth for 8 consecutive quarters, with an estimated -1% for Q2 2025[3] - For Q3 and Q4 2025, CPI is projected to grow at -0.1% and 0%, while PPI is expected to decline by -2.5% and -2.1% respectively[3] GDP Growth Projections - The actual GDP growth rate for the first half of 2025 is likely to be around 5.3-5.4%, requiring a second-half growth of 4.6-4.7% to meet the annual target[3] - The nominal GDP growth rate needs to stabilize above 4% for the year[3] CPI Insights - Core CPI has shown an upward trend, reaching 0.7% year-on-year in June 2025, the highest since May 2024[5] - Service retail sales growth from January to May 2025 was 5.2%, significantly lower than the 20% and 6.2% growth rates in 2023 and 2024 respectively[5] - The contribution of service CPI to overall CPI growth was only 0.17 percentage points, much lower than the previous year's 0.9%[5] Food and Energy Price Trends - Food prices, particularly pork, are expected to face high base pressure in Q3, with a projected negative growth in pork prices due to supply chain factors[24][26] - Oil prices are anticipated to decline further, with Brent crude averaging around $66 per barrel in the second half of 2025, leading to a significant drag on CPI growth[35][36] Risks and Uncertainties - Global economic recovery may fall short of expectations, impacting domestic price levels and potentially leading to further declines in export and commodity prices[4] - The effectiveness of industrial policy adjustments and "anti-involution" measures remains uncertain, which could prolong price pressures in certain sectors[4]

崔东树表示，自第二季度开始，在"反内卷"的大环境下，车 市"价格战"已有熄火迹象，车企降价促销的力度大幅降低。 作者：周菊 封图：图虫创意 率4.3%，虽较1—4月的4.1%利润率有所改善，但相对于下游工业企业利润率5.7%的平均水平，汽 车行业仍偏低。 在乘用车市场中，新能源汽车仍然是亮点，维持着较高增速。6月，新能源乘用车市场零售111.1万 辆，同比增长29.7%；1—6月累计零售546.8万辆，同比增长33.3%。 与此同时，新能源汽车的销售结构发生变化，纯电动车份额增长强劲，而此前增长迅猛的插电式混 合动力和增程式混合动力车型份额有所下降。数据显示，6月新能源批发结构中，纯电动占比 62.1% ， 同 比 增 长 5.1%； 狭 义 插 混 占 比 28.0% ， 同 比 下 降 4.0%； 增 程 式 占 比 9.8% ， 同 比 下 降 1.1%。1—6月，纯电动占比61.4%，同比增长3.2%；狭义插混占比29.8%，同比下降2.4%；增程 式占比8.8%，同比下降0.8%。 6月，新能源车的渗透率53.3%，较去年同期提升4.8个百分点。其中，自主品牌中的新能源车渗透 率75.4%；豪华车中 ...

中国汽车工业协会10日发布的数据显示，1至6月，我国汽车产销量分别为1562.1万辆和1565.3万辆，同 比分别增长12.5%和11.4%。其中，新能源汽车产销量分别为696.8万辆和693.7万辆，同比分别增长 41.4%和40.3%。新能源汽车新车销量达到汽车新车总销量的44.3%。 中国汽车工业协会相关负责人表示，展望下半年，"两新"政策将继续有序实施，叠加企业新品供给持续 丰富，将有助于拉动汽车消费的持续增长。不过也要看到，当前外部环境的复杂性、严峻性、不确定性 有所增加，部分地区暂停汽车置换补贴等需要密切关注，行业竞争依然激烈，整体盈利水平持续承压， 行业稳定运行仍面临挑战。 1-6月，新能源汽车新车销量达到汽车新车总销量的44.3%。 随着国民经济持续回升向好以及消费品以旧换新等促消费政策落地见效，今年上半年我国汽车工业多项 经济指标同比均实现两位数增长。 行业反内卷深入推进 今年上半年，中国汽车工业协会、工信部、商务部等接连发声，反对汽车市场内卷式竞争，引导行业向 技术竞争转向，鼓励车企在智能化、全球化等方向战略布局。 5月31日，中国汽车工业协会发出倡议，支持企业通过正常的方式参与市场竞争， ...

Core Viewpoints - The automotive industry is entering a new cycle driven by the upgrade of intelligent driving technology, with the "old-for-new" policy expected to boost domestic demand throughout 2025 [3][10] - The industry is experiencing significant trends in SUVs and new energy vehicles, now transitioning into intelligent driving, with a clearer market leader landscape emerging [3][7] Group 1: Market Conditions - Total demand has been improving, with strong performance in new energy vehicles. In the first four months of 2025, wholesale sales of passenger cars reached 8.638 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.4% [6][22] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 46.8% in the first four months of 2025, with wholesale sales of new energy passenger cars growing by 45.2% year-on-year [6][24] - The low-end market (below 80,000 yuan) saw a significant increase in sales, growing by 69.8% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025, while the mid-range and high-end markets experienced declines [30][32] Group 2: Trends in Technology - The automotive sector is witnessing a technological leap with "end-to-end" advancements in intelligent driving, transitioning from policy-driven to consumer-driven growth in new energy vehicle penetration [7][10] - The penetration rate of high-level intelligent driving (L2 and above) is expected to grow rapidly, potentially reaching 10%-50% in the coming years [7][10] Group 3: Market Structure - The market structure is becoming clearer, with a focus on the expansion of market share. The market share of domestic brands rose to 65.4% in the first four months of 2025 [8][10] - In the high-end market (above 250,000 yuan), the market share of BBA (BMW, Benz, Audi) and Tesla remains significant at 38.6%, while domestic brands have substantial room for growth [8][10] Group 4: New Growth Opportunities - In the first four months of 2025, China's passenger car exports reached 1.607 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, with new energy vehicles accounting for 46% of exports [9][10] - The acceleration of electrification in Europe presents new opportunities for domestic companies, despite a temporary slowdown in the pace of new energy vehicle adoption [9][10] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on strong intelligent driving vehicles as alpha opportunities in the new cycle of intelligent driving upgrades [10] - Key investment targets include Xiaomi Group, Xpeng Motors, Geely, BYD, and Li Auto, particularly those affected by price reductions from joint ventures [10]