2025 年 10 月 14 日 总量研究 为何 9 月出口增速超预期？ ——2025 年 9 月进出口数据点评 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：周可 执业证书编号：S0930524120001 021-52523677 zhouke@ebscn.com 相关研报 我国对非美出口的驱动力是什么？——2025 年 8 月进出口数据点评（2025-09-09） 新兴市场支撑出口作用进一步显现——2025 年 7 月进出口数据点评（2025-08-07） 6 月出口强劲，下半年怎么看？——2025 年 6 月进出口数据点评（2025-07-15） 出口增速为何回落？——2025年5月进出口 数据点评（2025-06-09） 出口为何展现韧性？——2025年4月进出口 数据点评（2025-05-10） 关税压力将如何扰动出口？——2025年3月 进出口数据点评（2025-04-14） 美关税政策落地后，我国出口如何演绎？— — 2025 年 1-2 月 进 出 口 数 据 点 评 （2025-03-08） 要点 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the home appliance industry, highlighting the potential for growth driven by real estate policies and the "old-for-new" replacement program [4][6]. Core Insights - The home appliance sector is experiencing a recovery, with significant growth in both domestic and export sales, particularly in the white goods and kitchen appliance segments, supported by favorable government policies [6][7]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: 1) White goods benefiting from real estate policy changes and the "old-for-new" program, with a focus on leading companies like Haier, Midea, and Gree [8][14]. 2) Export opportunities driven by large customer orders and recovering overseas demand, particularly for companies like Ousheng Electric and Dechang [8][14]. 3) Core components seeing increased demand due to the recovery in the white goods sector, with recommendations for companies like Huaxiang and Shun'an [8][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Domestic Sales Growth - From January to August 2025, the air conditioning sector saw a cumulative production of 149.32 million units, a 6% year-on-year increase, with sales reaching 152.57 million units, up 7%, and domestic sales growing by 9% [11][12]. - The refrigerator and washing machine sectors also reported domestic sales growth of 4% and 6%, respectively, during the same period [11][12]. 2. White Goods and Components - The average price of white goods is expected to rise due to the "old-for-new" policy and increasing raw material costs, with air conditioning prices projected to continue their upward trend [23][24]. - Key companies in the white goods sector are expected to report varying revenue growth for Q3 2025, with Midea projected to grow by 3% in revenue and 8% in profit, while Gree anticipates flat revenue and profit [24][25]. 3. Kitchen Appliances - The kitchen appliance sector is benefiting from real estate policies and the "old-for-new" program, with significant sales growth in major categories like range hoods and gas stoves [7][8]. - Companies like Robam and Vatti are expected to see mixed results, with Robam projecting a 2% revenue increase but a 7% decline in profit [24]. 4. Small Appliances - The small appliance sector is experiencing a revival, particularly in exports, with companies like Supor and Joyoung expected to report positive revenue growth [7][8]. - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to significantly boost sales in small kitchen appliances, with new categories like microwaves and rice cookers included in the subsidy program [14][15]. 5. New Displays and Lighting - The report notes a turning point in the emerging display sector, with stable prices in the panel market and growth potential in the lighting industry [8][9]. 6. Investment Highlights - The report emphasizes the importance of real estate and export chains, recommending investments in companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing transformation in the home appliance sector [8][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance industry, particularly for the white goods sector, indicating a "Buy" recommendation for key players like Midea, Haier, and Gree [4][8]. Core Insights - The home appliance sector is benefiting from real estate policies and the "trade-in" program, leading to a sustained growth trend in domestic sales [6][14]. - The report highlights three main investment themes: white goods, export opportunities, and core components, with a focus on companies that are expected to outperform in these areas [8][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Domestic Sales Growth - From January to August 2025, the air conditioning industry produced 149.32 million units, a 6% year-on-year increase, with sales reaching 152.57 million units, up 7%, and domestic sales growing by 9% [6][14]. - The refrigerator and washing machine sectors also saw domestic sales growth of 4% and 6%, respectively, during the same period [6][14]. 2. White Goods and Components - The report notes that the average price of white goods is increasing due to the trade-in program, with air conditioning prices expected to rise further [27]. - Key companies are projected to show varied performance in Q3 2025, with Midea expected to see a 3% revenue increase and an 8% rise in profits, while Gree anticipates flat revenue and profit [28][29]. 3. Kitchen Appliances - The kitchen appliance sector is experiencing a recovery driven by real estate and trade-in policies, with significant growth in online sales for range hoods and gas stoves [6][14]. - Major players like Robam and Vatti are expected to see mixed results, with Robam projecting a 2% revenue increase but a 7% decline in profits [6][14]. 4. Small Appliances - The small appliance sector is benefiting from domestic trade-in policies, with companies like Supor and Joyoung expected to see revenue growth of 3% and a profit turnaround, respectively [6][14]. - The report highlights significant growth for companies like Stone Technology, which anticipates an 80% revenue increase [6][14]. 5. New Displays and Lighting - The emerging display sector is at a turning point, with companies like Hisense and Xiaomi expected to report revenue growth of 8% and 15%, respectively [6][14]. - The lighting industry is anticipated to see gradual improvements as market conditions stabilize [6][14]. 6. Investment Highlights - The report emphasizes the attractiveness of the white goods sector due to its low valuation, high dividends, and stable growth potential, recommending a combination of leading companies [8][17]. - Export opportunities are highlighted for companies like Ousheng Electric and Dechang, which are expected to benefit from increased orders and stable profitability [8][17]. 7. Trade-in Policy Impact - The trade-in policy has been expanded to include 12 categories of appliances, significantly boosting sales and consumer interest [17][18]. - The report notes that the trade-in program has already led to over 62 million units sold in 2024, generating nearly 270 billion yuan in consumption [17][18].

2025 年 10 月 12 日 第四批国补资金下达，10 月空 排产同比承压 ―《2025/9/29-2025/10/10》家申周报 相关研究 证券分析师 刘正 A0230518100001 liuzheng@swsresearch.co m 刘嘉玲 A0230522120003 liujl@swsresearch.com 联系人 刘嘉玲 (8621)23297818× liujl@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 本期投资提示: 数据观察：8 月白电内销延续增长，外销表现分化 ● 1) 空调出货端：总体销量增长，内外销表现分化。根据产业在线披露数据，2025 年 8 月空调行业实现产量 1288.10 万台,同比上升 9.40%; 实现总销量 1302.30 万台,同 比下降 1.00%，其中内销 773.70 万台，同比上升 1.20%，出口 528.70 万台，同比下 ​​​ 2) 冰箱出货端：内销保持增长，外销有所下降。根据产业在线披露数据，2025 年 8 月冰箱行业实现产量 871.00 万台，同比上升 3.4%；实现销量 862.00 万台，同比上升 2.10%，其中内销 ...

行 业 及 产 业 家用电器 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 2025 年 10 月 12 日 第四批国补资金下达，10 月空冰洗 排产同比承压 看好 ——《2025/9/29-2025/10/10》家电周报 相关研究 证券分析师 刘正 A0230518100001 liuzheng@swsresearch.co m 刘嘉玲 A0230522120003 liujl@swsresearch.com 联系人 刘嘉玲 (8621)23297818× liujl@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： ⚫ 数据观察：8 月白电内销延续增长，外销表现分化 1）空调出货端：总体销量增长，内外销表现分化。根据产业在线披露数据，2025 年 8 月空调行业实现产量 1288.10 万台，同比上升 9.40%；实现总销量 1302.30 万台，同 比下降 1.00%，其中内销 773.70 万台，同比上升 1.20%，出口 528.70 万台，同比下 降 4.20%。 2）冰箱出货端：内销保持增长，外销有所下降。根据产业在线披露数据，2025 年 8 月冰箱行业实现产量 871.00 万台，同比上升 3.4%；实 ...

中国经济以2025年上半年5.3%的GDP增长率稳健前行，展现出强劲韧性。然而，三季度经济数据显现明显放缓迹象：社会消费品零售总额增速回落，固 定资产投资增速进一步下降，叠加房地产持续下行，以及产业逆全球化浪潮，明年稳增长压力将进一步加大。在此背景下，提振消费已成为稳增长的关键 一环。 导 语 近期笔者受邀参加深圳香蜜湖宏观经济论坛，与中国证监会原主席肖钢、上海市人民政府原常务副市长屠光绍、中央财经委员会办公室原副主任尹艳林、 中国建设银行原党委书记、董事长王洪章等金融界与学术界重量级人士共聚一堂。本次论坛上，笔者认为，提振消费需从以下几方面入手：一是扩大以旧 换新支持品类；二是加大对服务消费的支持力度；三是鼓励中高端消费；四是完善社会保障体系；五是优化收入分配结构。这些举措旨在释放内需活力， 推动经济向消费驱动型转型。详情请参阅以下发言实录！ 非常荣幸参加本次研讨会。近期我前往了新加坡、美国以及欧洲部分国家，发现欧洲经济增长乏力，中国、美国以及新加坡经济保持增长态势。上半年国 内经济稳步增长，但是三季度部分核心数据有所放缓，明年经济面临一定下行压力。我认为经济学家有使命唱响中国经济光明论，这里我就如何提振消 ...

2025年上半年，国内厨卫电器赛道仍在经历"存量竞争"带来的内卷，部分品牌依靠大幅促销维持出货 量，换来的却是毛利率下滑、利润承压。 在这样的背景下，华帝股份交出了一份颇具看点的中期财报：营收27.998亿元，归母净利润2.72亿元， 整体规模保持稳健。更为亮眼的是，线下渠道毛利率升至45.89%，同比提升6.83个百分点，新零售渠道 毛利率也达到41.51%，盈利质量实现了逆势改善。 这份中报释放出的关键信号，并不只是"韧性"，而是战略重心的深层转变。华帝正持续落实高端化战 略，强化"高端即华帝"的市场认知。背后既有产品与渠道的结构调整，也有品牌与技术的长期积累。从 财报细节和行业趋势来看，华帝正在从"规模驱动"走向"价值驱动"，开辟出一条更具想象空间的增长通 道。 结构优化：高端化路径的底层逻辑 毛利率的改善，是华帝高端化的第一个注脚。2025年上半年，公司线下渠道毛利率升至45.89%，同比 提升6.83个百分点；新零售渠道毛利率也达到41.51%。在一个普遍陷入价格战的行业里，这样的表现尤 为难得。它表明华帝并未"跟风打折"，而是通过结构优化来提升盈利质量。 过去的厨电行业竞争，往往是谁把价格压得更低 ...

Core Viewpoint - The heavy truck industry is at the beginning of an upward cycle, with the expanded subsidy policy for vehicle replacement in 2025 expected to accelerate domestic sales and return to average levels. Although export growth has temporarily slowed, there is significant overseas market potential. Current low valuations of truck stocks suggest that future profits may reach new highs alongside sales, indicating that the investment value of truck stocks has not been fully realized [1]. Sales Performance - In August, heavy truck wholesale, terminal, and export volumes increased by 46.7%, 66.0%, and 15.6% year-on-year, respectively. The wholesale sales volume reached 92,000 units, with a year-to-date total of 716,000 units, reflecting a 14.5% increase year-on-year [2]. - Terminal sales in August totaled 67,000 units, with a year-to-date total of 486,000 units, marking a 25.3% year-on-year increase. The significant growth in terminal sales is attributed to the effective vehicle replacement policy [2]. - Heavy truck exports in August amounted to 39,000 units, with a year-to-date total of 246,000 units, showing a 7.1% year-on-year increase. Exports to regions outside Russia saw a substantial increase of 71.7% year-on-year [2]. Inventory and Demand - Inventory levels are healthy, with total inventory at 129,000 units as of the end of August, a slight year-on-year decrease. The dynamic inventory-to-sales ratio stands at 2.4, indicating a reasonable range [3]. - Since the beginning of 2025, logistics demand has shown signs of recovery, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.8% in August for road freight turnover [3]. Market Share - In the first eight months of 2025, Foton Motor's heavy truck wholesale market share increased by 5.4 percentage points to 12.6%. Dongfeng Group, Shaanxi Automobile Group, and Foton Motor also saw increases in their terminal sales market shares [3].

Core Viewpoint - The heavy truck industry in China experienced significant growth in September 2025, with sales reaching approximately 105,000 units, marking an 82% year-on-year increase, driven by policies promoting the replacement of old trucks and a seasonal uptick in demand [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - In September 2025, the heavy truck market sold about 105,000 units, a 15% month-on-month increase and an 82% year-on-year increase from 58,000 units [3][5]. - The heavy truck market has seen six consecutive months of growth, with an average growth rate of 39% over the past six months [3]. - Cumulatively, from January to September 2025, the heavy truck market sales exceeded 820,000 units, representing a 20% year-on-year growth [3][22]. Group 2: Factors Driving Growth - The surge in sales is attributed to a low base from the previous year, a seasonal increase in demand for freight transport, and government policies encouraging the replacement of older trucks [5][6]. - The export of heavy trucks has also shown steady growth, with September exports expected to rise by approximately 6% year-on-year [5]. Group 3: Segment Performance - The terminal sales of heavy trucks in September showed a rapid year-on-year growth of about 96% and a month-on-month increase of around 27% [6]. - Sales of natural gas heavy trucks (气卡) in September saw a significant recovery, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 140% [6]. - Sales of electric heavy trucks (电卡) reached a record high in September, with terminal sales exceeding 22,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 185% [9]. Group 4: Company Performance - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (中国重汽) sold approximately 27,000 heavy trucks in September, maintaining the industry lead with a 63% year-on-year increase [13]. - FAW Jiefang (一汽解放) achieved a remarkable 200% year-on-year increase in September sales, totaling over 21,000 units [14]. - Dongfeng Motor Corporation (东风公司) sold about 16,500 heavy trucks in September, with a year-on-year growth of 116% [14]. - Other companies like Foton (北汽福田) and XCMG (徐工) also reported significant sales increases of 137% and 133% respectively in September [18][20]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The heavy truck industry is projected to exceed 1 million units in annual sales if the average monthly sales in the last quarter reach 93,000 units [22].

这个秋天，中国经济吹来了阵阵暖风。从熙熙攘攘的景区到排起长龙的餐厅，从刷新纪录的票房到火热 开展的消费季，变化正在我们身边悄然发生。 世界银行在10月7日发布的最新报告中，将2025年中国经济增长预期上调至 ，较其4月份的预测提高了0.8个百分点。这一调整的背后，是中国经济在多重政策支持和市场内生动力 增强下的 随着各项宏观政策持续发力，经济回暖的迹象正变得愈发清晰。这个假期，你可能已经感受到了这些变 化——无论是车站机场的熙攘人潮，还是商场餐厅的排队叫号，都在无声地宣告：经济的活力，回来 了。 01 消费市场：人气旺了，信心足了 这个国庆中秋假期，消费市场交出了一份亮眼的成绩单。商务部商务大数据监测显示，假期前四天，全 国重点零售和餐饮企业销售额同比增长 ，消费市场呈现繁荣活跃的良好态势。 在江西芦溪县仙凤三宝园，呦呦欢乐剧场座无虚席，儿童剧《莱杰的愿望》赢得阵阵掌声；潮玩市集与 法治文化广场上，特色小吃与手工艺品摊位前人头攒动。 。 当地发放100万元消费券，以"政府补贴 企业让利"双向发力，有效激发消费潜力。 这样的火热场景在全国多地同步上演。湖南株洲天泽华丽服装市场，数百家商户推出双节特惠、直播展 演 ...