汽车行业协会专家 20260304 摘要 2026 年车市景气度呈"前低后高"节奏，1-2 月受居民房贷剧减、存款 激增及 AI 替代效应导致的消费信心不足影响而低迷，3 月起需求有望逐 步回补。 "7 年低息"金融政策替代价格战效果显著，国家贴息 1%叠加车企补贴 使贷款利率（低至 0.5%-0.98%）倒挂存款利率，显著拉动中高端及 20 万级车型销量。 银行因资产荒及房贷萎缩，参与汽车金融意愿极强；国家贴息政策窗口 期为 2025.8-2026.8，预计后续仍有延期可能以支撑车市。 2026 年以旧换新政策因条款门槛收紧（限制 2025.1.8 后车辆）导致年 初压力大，预计两会后政策将向提高补贴覆盖比例及放宽门槛方向微调。 出口利润受人民币升值（7.2->6.9）及美元贬值双重挤压，2026 年出 口增速预计回落至 30%+，中南美、中东及欧盟为核心增量市场。 "反内卷"政策重心在于"产能重组"而非企业重组，通过盘活合资企业 闲置产能（利用率约 48%）及资产租赁实现，而非直接债务兼并。 新能源出口上半年受低基数驱动将维持高增（2-3 月约 50%），下半年 随基数抬升增速将放缓至 10%-20%，比 ...

2024-2025年实施的消费品"以旧换新"政策，中央财政合计安排4500亿元超长期特别国债资金支持，累计发放 直达消费者的补贴超4.8亿人次。其中2024年超1.2亿人次，2025年上半年超2.8亿人次，2025年下半年超0.8亿人 次，带动相关商品销售额超过2.6万亿元，直接拉动社会消费品零售总额增长0.6个百分点。 以上数据反映了该政策的两大显著特征，一方面，以旧换新对消费的拉动功不可没，如果没有这项政策，2025 年或难以实现5%的增长；另一方面，该政策的乘数效应似乎不及预期，且覆盖人群偏少。自2025年5月起，社 会消费品零售总额当月同比增速逐月放缓，12月仅同比增长0.9%；而且，2025年下半年以旧换新的受益人次 数量降至0.8亿。本文探讨如何提高以旧换新的边际效应及扩大受益人口覆盖率、促就业等进行探讨。 "以旧换新"政策经历了 "出台——加力——扩围"过程 2024年7月国务院印发《关于加力支持大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新的若干措施的通知》，明确向地方安 排1500亿元左右超长期特别国债资金，用于支持消费品以旧换新。2025年则安排3000亿元超长期特别国债资金 支持消费品以旧换新加力扩围， ...

在经历1月份市场的"开门红"后，作为春节月的2月份，我国重卡行业形势如何？表现还会超预期吗？刚刚到来的3月份销售旺季，又会 是怎样的一番景象呢？ 请看第一商用车网带来的分析报道。 2月重卡销量同比小幅下滑，在意料之中 2026年的春节假期是从2月中旬到2月下旬，2月16日是除夕，比2025年除夕（1月28日）晚了19天。春节是中国人民家庭团圆的传统 佳节，中国的老百姓不管多忙多累，都要回家团聚，货运行业从业者同样如此。因此，春节所在月份必然是货车购买的淡季，只有等到 正月十五元宵节以后，制造业复工复产拉动货运业复工复产，物流从业者复工复产需要有更好、更新、更高出勤率的车辆装备，此时， 旺盛的购车需求和传统商用车销售旺季才会如期到来。由于今年春节比去年春节晚了近20天，去年的卡车销售旺季是在2月中旬以后才 陆续到来的，因此，今年的卡车销售旺季要在3月初以后才会在各个地区陆续到来。 另一方面，全国各地的重卡整车生产企业、零部件企业、卡车品牌经销商也要放春节假，虽然有的企业假期天数放不满，但终归是要放 的。一放假，车企的生产量和出库量肯定会环比甚至同比下降，进而影响到今年2月份的重卡行业整体销量。 此外，2026年 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records on Commercial Vehicle Industry Industry Overview - The commercial vehicle industry is experiencing a recovery phase, particularly in the heavy-duty truck (重卡) segment, driven by the "old-for-new" policy which is expected to continue into 2026. [1][2][7] Key Points on Heavy-Duty Trucks - **Sales Growth**: In 2025, heavy-duty truck wholesale sales reached 1.144 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.8%. Registration volume was 799,000 units, up 32.7%. [1][4] - **Export Performance**: Heavy-duty truck exports totaled 341,000 units in 2025, marking a 17.4% increase. Key growth regions include Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, with Nigeria showing significant growth. [1][5] - **Fuel Structure Changes**: Diesel truck demand is declining, while natural gas truck penetration is stabilizing. New energy heavy-duty truck sales reached 229,000 units, up 182%, with a penetration rate of 28.8%. [1][6] - **Market Dynamics**: The heavy-duty truck market is characterized by high concentration, with the top four companies maintaining a market share of approximately 90%. China National Heavy Duty Truck Group leads with a market share of 20%-30%. [5] Key Points on Buses - **Sales Trends**: The bus industry is entering a new cycle characterized by stable domestic demand and high export growth. In 2025, wholesale sales of large and medium buses reached 122,000 units, a 5% increase, while exports grew by 34.6% to 59,000 units. [1][2][3] - **New Energy Buses**: The export of new energy buses is rapidly increasing, with a projected growth of 34% in 2026. [3][12] - **Market Recovery**: The bus market is expected to see a dual resonance of export and domestic sales, with a forecasted growth of 20% in wholesale volume to 146,000 units in 2026. [12][13] Investment Recommendations - **Heavy-Duty Trucks**: Focus on leading companies with advantages in both export and new energy sectors, such as Weichai Power and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group. [2][18] - **Buses**: Look for companies with strong export capabilities and product advantages, such as Yutong Bus and King Long. [2][18] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include changes in commercial vehicle policy subsidies, uncertainties in global demand, and fluctuations in raw material prices affecting industry profits. [21] Additional Insights - The heavy-duty truck market is expected to benefit from the natural scrapping of older vehicles and supportive policies, which will enhance domestic demand. [7][17] - The bus market is projected to recover steadily, driven by policy support and increasing export opportunities, particularly in Europe and Latin America. [14][16] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections for the commercial vehicle industry, highlighting growth opportunities and potential risks.

格隆汇2月27日丨赛特新材(688398.SH)公布2025年年度业绩快报，报告期内，公司实现营业总收入 99,491.08万元，较上年同期相比增加6.57%；实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润2,495.30万元，较上年 同期相比减少67.66%；归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益的净利润2,159.42万元，较上年同期相 比减少69.54%。 报告期内，公司坚持以市场为导向，主营产品真空绝热板产销量延续良好的增长态势。2026年，随着新 版冰箱能效标准实施及以旧换新政策延续，将为公司主营产品渗透率的持续提升创造有利条件。公司将 积极应对机遇和挑战，优化业务布局，积极响应下游客户需求，并加快新产品落地、拓展新应用领域； 同时，强化日常运营管理，深化降本增效，以提升公司整体盈利能力。 受宏观环境和市场竞争影响，报告期主营产品真空绝热板销售均价同比下降及内外销结构变化导致真空 绝热板毛利率同比下降；报告期子公司维爱吉处于投资期，相应的固定资产折旧费用同比增加；公司发 行可转换公司债券计提利息费用以及银行贷款利息费用同比增加，导致公司财务费用同比上升。 ...

蔡彤娟（中国人民大学重阳金融研究院副院长、研究员） 智能产品成为年货新宠。在625亿元超长期特别国债支持消费品以旧换新政策带动下，截至2月23日， 2026年消费品以旧换新惠及3112.7万人次，带动销售额2070.3亿元。汽车以旧换新61.2万辆，带动新车 销售额1005.3亿元。商务大数据显示，今年春节假期，重点平台智能眼镜、具身智能机器人销售额较去 年春节假期分别增长47.3%和32.7%，节水卫浴器具、有机食品分别增长23.2%和26.5%。 2026年马年春节，中国消费市场呈现出"马力全开"的强劲态势。作为"史上最长春节假期"（除夕前一天 即开始放假，共9天），叠加多项促消费政策持续发力，居民消费意愿明显增强，消费结构持续优化， 展现出从物质满足向精神体验、从传统实物向智能健康、从单一购物向多元场景转变的鲜明特征。 2026年春节消费热度从支付数据可见一斑。据中国人民银行披露，除夕当天（2月16日）银联、网联两 大支付清算平台共处理支付交易49.31亿笔，较2025年除夕同比增长21.64%。这一增速显著高于2026年1 月移动支付商品消费交易笔数16.8%的同比增幅，表明长假效应极大激发了即时消费 ...

全市零售业销售收入 同比增长46.61% 转自：成都日报锦观 从发票数据 看成都新春消费市场"马"力全开 增值税发票数据显示 史上最长春节假期收官，2026年成都新春消费市场"马"力全开。从火锅店的排队长龙，到文博场馆的预 约秒空，再到宽窄巷子的熙攘客流、东郊记忆的光影潮玩，整座城市巴蜀烟火与国际新潮交融，消费热 度拉满。记者昨日从成都市税务局获悉，增值税发票数据显示，春节期间全市零售、住宿、餐饮、文旅 等核心领域全面"开花"，异常火热。 零售市场消费需求全面释放，多品类销售迎来显著增长。增值税发票数据显示，春节期间（2月15日-2 月23日）全市零售业销售收入较去年春节假期同比增长46.61%。线下商场促销活动密集、商圈人气旺 盛，百货、超级市场等综合零售销售收入同比增长49.36%；市民走亲访友、家庭聚餐需求旺盛，食 品、饮料及烟草制品专门零售需求激增，销售收入同比增长1.9倍。 文博文旅消费成假日市场亮点。成都博物馆连续8天预约满额，武侯祠、杜甫草堂等重点文博场馆客流 攀升，带动博物馆销售收入同比增长4.8倍；航空出行消费随客流同步攀升，航空旅客运输销售收入同 比增长1.4倍；旅行社及相关服务销售收入同 ...

Economic Overview - In 2025, the number of "trillion-yuan cities" increased from 27 to 29, with Dalian and Xuzhou joining the ranks [1] - Fuzhou emerged as a dark horse among the "trillion-yuan cities" over the past five years [1] Retail Sales Performance - In 2025, six cities surpassed one trillion yuan in social retail sales, namely Shanghai, Chongqing, Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, down from seven in 2024 due to Suzhou's adjustment to 909.22 billion yuan with a growth rate of 2% [2][4] - Chongqing surpassed Shanghai in 2025 with a retail sales total of 1,670 billion yuan, while the gap between them was less than 100 million yuan [4] Key Cities and Growth Rates - Fuzhou's retail sales reached 596.91 billion yuan with a growth rate of 6%, while Yantai and Chengdu followed with 5.8% and 5.5% respectively [5] - Xi'an's retail sales totaled 572.12 billion yuan, marking a 5.3% growth, ranking it fifth among the 29 trillion-yuan GDP cities [10][11] Future Prospects - Hangzhou aims to become the seventh trillion-yuan consumption city by targeting a retail sales growth of around 5% in 2026, with a focus on service industry and digital economy [7] - Wuhan's retail sales reached 901.40 billion yuan with a growth rate of 4.8%, positioning it as a potential candidate for future growth in the central region [8] Consumption Trends - The "old-for-new" policy significantly contributed to Xi'an's retail sales growth, with notable increases in categories like new energy vehicles and home appliances [14] - The integration of cultural, tourism, and sports events has stimulated consumption in Xi'an, enhancing its economic vitality [16]

Group 1 - The automotive market is experiencing a new round of price competition, initiated by joint venture car manufacturers, with the Honda Accord significantly reducing its price to celebrate its 50th anniversary, offering the e:PHEV model at 138,800 yuan, a reduction of 100,000 yuan from the official price, marking the highest discount since its launch [1] - In January 2026, the retail sales of the Accord were approximately 13,800 units, a month-on-month decrease of 27%, ranking 6th in the mid-size car segment, with most sales coming from the fuel version [1] - The Accord and similar models like the Camry have historically been popular among middle-aged consumers due to their reliability and low maintenance costs, but the rise of electric vehicles has forced these once highly sought-after models to lower their prices [1] Group 2 - In January, the Honda Fit, marketed as a car for young people, also adopted a limited purchase strategy, pricing the new generation at 60,000 yuan, a reduction of 20,000 yuan from the previous generation, with a limited availability of 3,000 units [2] - The automotive market remains competitive in the 100,000 to 150,000 yuan price range, with the automotive consumption index in January at a historical low of 31.1 [2] - New energy vehicles are seeing a shift towards mid-to-high-end models, with sales of A00 and A0 class vehicles at 88,000 units, A-class at 141,000 units, and B-class and above at 399,000 units, accounting for 14%, 22.5%, and 63.4% of total sales respectively [2] Group 3 - The competition in the automotive market continues, with GAC Toyota launching the new fuel vehicle Vellfire AIR version, offering a cash subsidy of 22,000 yuan and additional trade-in subsidies [3] - Dongfeng Nissan has introduced four new models, including a new version of the Sylphy with a limited-time discount of 10,000 yuan, and the new version of the Teana with a discount of 21,000 yuan [3] - Premium brands like BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Audi are also offering significant discounts, often exceeding 100,000 yuan, to capture market share [3]

增值税发票数据显示，春节假期，在"以旧换新"、有奖发票等政策带动下，消费者"焕新"热情有效 激发，更加青睐高品质、高技术含量的智能化产品。充换电设施日益完善，春节假期机动车充电销售收 入同比大幅增长163.9%。 ...