Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the steady progress of the national economy and the real estate sector, driven by effective consumption policies and a focus on high-quality urban development, despite facing challenges such as seasonal fluctuations and inventory adjustments [2][25]. Economic Performance - In July 2025, the industrial production increased by 5.7% year-on-year, with high-tech manufacturing growing by 9.3% [3]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,780 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [3]. - Fixed asset investment grew by 5.3% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment rising by 6.2% [3]. - The total import and export value increased by 6.7% year-on-year, with exports growing by 8.0% [3]. - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.2% [3]. Financial Data - M1 and M2 money supply grew by 5.6% and 8.8% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending [4]. - In the first seven months, new loans increased by 12.8 trillion yuan, with long-term loans for households growing by 1.01 trillion yuan [5]. - The average interest rate for new personal housing loans was approximately 3.1%, maintaining a low level [5]. Real Estate Market Trends - In July, new housing transaction volumes experienced a seasonal decline, with major cities seeing a drop of over 20% [7]. - The nationwide sales area of new commercial housing was 57.09 million square meters, with a sales value of 532.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 7.8% [7]. - The inventory of unsold commercial housing decreased for five consecutive months, indicating reduced pressure on the industry [7]. Housing Price Dynamics - In July, the year-on-year decline in housing prices across 70 major cities narrowed, with first-tier cities experiencing a 1.1% decrease [12]. - Cities like Chengdu and Urumqi saw a year-on-year increase in new housing prices, signaling potential price stabilization [12][14]. Supply-Side Adjustments - From January to July, the construction area of residential buildings decreased by 9.4%, while new construction fell by 19.4% [16]. - The real estate development investment reached 53.58 billion yuan, down 12.0% year-on-year, with a notable decline in land transaction volumes [24]. Policy and Future Outlook - The government is expected to enhance policies for urban development and housing supply, focusing on high-quality growth and efficient land use [25]. - The real estate market is anticipated to stabilize with supportive measures for housing demand, including improved financing and urban renewal initiatives [26].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is showing positive changes due to the dual effects of existing and new policies, with key cities like Shanghai and Hangzhou leading the recovery, while many other cities still need to implement precise measures for stabilization [3][5][37]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since the second half of 2024, the real estate market has seen a positive shift, with significant increases in transaction volumes and stabilization of price indices, particularly in core cities [3][4]. - In Q4 2024, new home transactions in key cities increased year-on-year, with Shenzhen's new home transactions surging by 146% [4][9]. - The inventory level has decreased to 202 million square meters, with the absorption cycle shortening to 19 months [3][4]. Group 2: City-Specific Insights - Shenzhen is the only city to achieve growth in both new and second-hand home transactions, with new home sales up 24% and second-hand sales up 48% in 2024 [4][17]. - Cities like Chengdu and Xi'an have a per capita housing area exceeding 1.5 square meters, indicating strong housing demand [4][18]. - The rental yield in typical cities averages 1.8%, with cities like Chongqing and Changsha showing higher returns [5][25]. Group 3: Inventory and Supply Dynamics - Nine cities, including Qingdao and Nanjing, have reduced their inventory by over 1 million square meters, indicating a significant acceleration in inventory reduction [27][31]. - Core areas in cities like Shenzhen and Xuzhou show a much shorter absorption cycle compared to the city average, highlighting structural opportunities [29][30]. Group 4: Investment Trends - Market-oriented enterprises are focusing on high-quality land reserves, with a significant portion of new projects achieving profitability [32][35]. - In 2024, 70% of new projects in cities like Hangzhou and Beijing reported profitability, reflecting strong market resilience [32][33]. Group 5: Policy Recommendations - Cities should balance demand stimulation with supply optimization, implementing precise control measures to achieve a new equilibrium in the market [39][45]. - The focus should be on enhancing the supply of quality land and optimizing existing assets to stimulate demand effectively [46][48]. Group 6: Future Outlook - Cities like Hangzhou and Shanghai are expected to lead the recovery in 2025, supported by favorable policies and strong economic fundamentals [39][42]. - The overall market is anticipated to stabilize, with a focus on structural adjustments and risk prevention measures [51][52].