中介专家解读北京新政及沪深展望 20250810 摘要 北京新房库存压力显著，2025 年初至年中，库存从 6.9 万套增至 8.5 万套，郊区库存接近 13 万套，总库存达 21 万至 22 万套，对市场形成 制约，促使政府放松政策以缓解库存压力。 北京二手房市场在新政后带看量显著提升，朝阳区增幅达 65%-70%， 大兴区增幅最高达 88%，各区域溢价空间普遍提高 3-6 个百分点，显示 市场活跃度提升。 上海通过一年三次拆迁计划和高额补偿，有效推进旧改，保持房地产市 场稳定发展，徐汇地块赔付比例高达 1:1.53 至 1.67，显著提高居民参 与积极性。 深圳房地产市场面临总价过高和低得房率问题，库存量达 9.8 万套，新 房产品更新速度慢，需加大旧改拆迁力度以转化购买力并降低库存。 房企在高价地块上采取新策略，不急于销售，而是通过构建圈层和举办 品鉴会等活动来保持项目价值，延长去化周期至两年以实现盈利。 北京和深圳拆迁透明度不足，信息公示力度小，缺乏前置意见征集环节， 导致居民对土地用途了解不足，影响拆迁进度。 二手房市场量价平衡线是市场稳定的关键指标，北京为 9.6 万套到 10 万套，上海为 11 ...

Core Viewpoint - The national real estate market is still at the bottom left side, but the conditions for stabilization in first-tier and core second-tier cities are gradually maturing [1][33]. Group 1: Market Performance - The real estate market is experiencing increased differentiation, with new home sales declining by 2.9% year-on-year in April, while second-hand home sales in 18 sample cities increased by 20.8% year-on-year [3][10]. - In the first quarter, the transaction area of new homes in 30 major cities saw a year-on-year growth of 2.5%, with first-tier cities achieving an impressive 18.4% growth [3][10]. - The land auction market shows mixed performance, with some cities like Hangzhou and Shanghai seeing high premium transactions, while most cities experience relatively cold land auctions [4]. Group 2: Indicators of Market Stabilization - The rental yield in April 2025 was 2.31%, with the spread over the 30-year government bond yield rising from -58 basis points at the beginning of 2024 to 42 basis points, indicating improved attractiveness of real estate as an investment [11][14]. - The proportion of second-hand home transactions in 18 sample cities reached 59.0% in the first four months of 2025, up 7.9 percentage points year-on-year, suggesting a shift towards a more mature market [21][25]. - The narrow inventory of completed but unsold residential properties stood at 420 million square meters in April, with a de-stocking cycle of 21.6 months, indicating ongoing inventory pressure [27][31]. Group 3: City-Level Analysis - First-tier cities are showing signs of stabilization, with the de-stocking cycle for residential properties around 14.7 months, while second-tier cities are experiencing a longer cycle of 19.5 months [31]. - The second-hand home transaction proportion in first-tier cities was 63.7%, indicating a more mature market compared to second and third-tier cities [21][25]. - The new housing projects launched under the new regulations are expected to enhance the practicality, safety, and comfort of residential properties, potentially leading to a significant differentiation in new home sales [31].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is showing positive changes due to the dual effects of existing and new policies, with key cities like Shanghai and Hangzhou leading the recovery, while many other cities still need to implement precise measures for stabilization [3][5][37]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since the second half of 2024, the real estate market has seen a positive shift, with significant increases in transaction volumes and stabilization of price indices, particularly in core cities [3][4]. - In Q4 2024, new home transactions in key cities increased year-on-year, with Shenzhen's new home transactions surging by 146% [4][9]. - The inventory level has decreased to 202 million square meters, with the absorption cycle shortening to 19 months [3][4]. Group 2: City-Specific Insights - Shenzhen is the only city to achieve growth in both new and second-hand home transactions, with new home sales up 24% and second-hand sales up 48% in 2024 [4][17]. - Cities like Chengdu and Xi'an have a per capita housing area exceeding 1.5 square meters, indicating strong housing demand [4][18]. - The rental yield in typical cities averages 1.8%, with cities like Chongqing and Changsha showing higher returns [5][25]. Group 3: Inventory and Supply Dynamics - Nine cities, including Qingdao and Nanjing, have reduced their inventory by over 1 million square meters, indicating a significant acceleration in inventory reduction [27][31]. - Core areas in cities like Shenzhen and Xuzhou show a much shorter absorption cycle compared to the city average, highlighting structural opportunities [29][30]. Group 4: Investment Trends - Market-oriented enterprises are focusing on high-quality land reserves, with a significant portion of new projects achieving profitability [32][35]. - In 2024, 70% of new projects in cities like Hangzhou and Beijing reported profitability, reflecting strong market resilience [32][33]. Group 5: Policy Recommendations - Cities should balance demand stimulation with supply optimization, implementing precise control measures to achieve a new equilibrium in the market [39][45]. - The focus should be on enhancing the supply of quality land and optimizing existing assets to stimulate demand effectively [46][48]. Group 6: Future Outlook - Cities like Hangzhou and Shanghai are expected to lead the recovery in 2025, supported by favorable policies and strong economic fundamentals [39][42]. - The overall market is anticipated to stabilize, with a focus on structural adjustments and risk prevention measures [51][52].