中金研究 二手房收储举措对症 下 药，关注上海、北京库存消化进度。 如我们此前在 《房地产2026年展望：徐图进取，静候机遇》 和 《房地产政策端和供给侧初 现积极变化》 中指出的，当前房地产周期的关键点在库存问题，社会库存演变趋势、存量住房收储政策、新增土地供给方案是决定库存去化速度的关 键。上海二手房挂牌量自2025年3季度已开始下降，带动其挂牌去化周期持续下行；本次存量住房收储面向供给压力最为直接的二手房供给，也属对症下 药的积极举措，我们估算上海可交易存量住房约970万套，本次试点三区占比约32%，其中2000年以前建成的老房占比约15%，体量也相对可观；此外， 收储政策本身带来的积极信号意义可能对挂牌去化周期的进一步优化也有作用。我们持续提示，社会库存偏低的上海、北京可能更早迎来周期拐点，有助 于去库存的积极政策对此有加速作用。 新增土地供给方案决定预期改善的持续性。 本次上海试点政策仍旧侧重于在本区有新房置换意愿的群体，这是保证区域内部资金闭环的合理安排，但更 关键的是后续新增土地供给方案。2025年二季度起超高/高能级城市房价走势显著弱于中低能级城市，很大程度上与2024年4季度到2025年上半 ...

根据住建部相关数据，"十四五"时期全国商品住房累计销售面积约50亿平方米，扣减住房拆除因素，到 2024年底城镇人均住房建筑面积达到41平方米左右，户均住房超过1.1套。 2025年，全国商品房销售面积为88101万平方米，尽管总量较上一年继续减少，但降幅有所收窄。与此 同时，截至去年年末，一线城市的新房和二手房环比跌幅均出现收窄势头。面对处于深度调整阶段的全 国房地产市场，如何通过深层次的制度建设与存量盘活，盘活闲置房产以化解风险，清理不合理限制性 措施以提振消费，有望成为今年楼市政策的主要发力点。 国家统计局19日发布2025年全国房地产市场基本情况的相关数据。2025年，全国新建商品房销售面积 88101万平方米，比上年下降8.7%；其中住宅销售面积下降9.2%。新建商品房销售额83937亿元，下降 12.6%；其中住宅销售额下降13.0%。 2025年全国商品房销售面积降幅较上一年收窄 新房价格持平的城市数量在增多，这在上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进看来，意味着"楼市供求双 方进行深度博弈阶段"，房企认为房价已降至成本线水平，购房者对房价预期也趋于稳定。 在二手房市场，去年12月，70城二手房房价环 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the real estate markets in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, focusing on inventory levels, policy changes, and market dynamics. Key Points Beijing Real Estate Market - **Inventory Pressure**: Beijing's new home inventory increased from 69,000 units at the beginning of 2025 to 85,000 units by mid-year, with total inventory reaching 210,000 to 220,000 units, prompting government policy relaxation to alleviate pressure [1][6][9]. - **Second-Hand Market Activity**: Following new policies, the viewing volume for second-hand homes surged, with increases of 65%-70% in Chaoyang and 88% in Daxing, indicating heightened market activity [1][4][3]. - **Price Premiums**: The average price premium for second-hand homes in various districts increased by 3-6 percentage points, with Chaoyang's premium dropping from 19% to 14% [5][1]. - **Policy Impact**: The new policies led to a slight increase in transactions in the second-hand market and some growth in the new home market, aimed at preventing significant price drops in unsold projects [9][10]. Shanghai Real Estate Market - **Inventory Management**: Shanghai's total inventory is approximately 190,000 units, with a focus on reducing inventory through demolition and compensation strategies [12][18]. - **High Compensation Rates**: The compensation ratio for demolition in Xuhui district is between 1:1.53 and 1.67, significantly encouraging resident participation [18]. - **Market Stability**: Shanghai is implementing a three-times-a-year demolition plan to ensure a steady supply and maintain market stability [17][18]. Shenzhen Real Estate Market - **Challenges**: Shenzhen faces high total prices and low usable area rates, with inventory at 98,000 units. The market requires increased demolition efforts to convert purchasing power and reduce inventory [13][1]. - **Price Trends**: The market is currently experiencing a price decline, with a 196% increase from 2017 to 2022, leading to a need for policy adjustments [12][13]. Policy and Market Dynamics - **Future Policies**: The effectiveness of recent policies will determine if further measures are introduced in Beijing and Shanghai. Both cities are trialing relaxed residency policies for high-level talent as a means to stimulate the market [10][12]. - **Investment Trends**: Investors are increasingly looking for properties in suburban areas, particularly in new developments and school districts outside the city center [11][1]. Additional Insights - **Transparency Issues**: Both Beijing and Shenzhen struggle with transparency in demolition processes, leading to public dissatisfaction and delays [20][16]. - **Old Inventory Management**: The current inventory includes existing homes and projects under construction, with expectations of only 35%-40% being sold by year-end 2025 [23][24]. - **Market Balance**: The equilibrium price-volume lines for second-hand homes are 96,000 to 100,000 units in Beijing and 115,000 to 127,000 units in Shanghai, crucial for stabilizing prices [2][27]. Conclusion - The real estate markets in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen are undergoing significant changes driven by inventory pressures, policy adjustments, and shifting buyer behaviors. The effectiveness of these policies and market responses will be critical in shaping future market dynamics.

Core Viewpoint - The national real estate market is still at the bottom left side, but the conditions for stabilization in first-tier and core second-tier cities are gradually maturing [1][33]. Group 1: Market Performance - The real estate market is experiencing increased differentiation, with new home sales declining by 2.9% year-on-year in April, while second-hand home sales in 18 sample cities increased by 20.8% year-on-year [3][10]. - In the first quarter, the transaction area of new homes in 30 major cities saw a year-on-year growth of 2.5%, with first-tier cities achieving an impressive 18.4% growth [3][10]. - The land auction market shows mixed performance, with some cities like Hangzhou and Shanghai seeing high premium transactions, while most cities experience relatively cold land auctions [4]. Group 2: Indicators of Market Stabilization - The rental yield in April 2025 was 2.31%, with the spread over the 30-year government bond yield rising from -58 basis points at the beginning of 2024 to 42 basis points, indicating improved attractiveness of real estate as an investment [11][14]. - The proportion of second-hand home transactions in 18 sample cities reached 59.0% in the first four months of 2025, up 7.9 percentage points year-on-year, suggesting a shift towards a more mature market [21][25]. - The narrow inventory of completed but unsold residential properties stood at 420 million square meters in April, with a de-stocking cycle of 21.6 months, indicating ongoing inventory pressure [27][31]. Group 3: City-Level Analysis - First-tier cities are showing signs of stabilization, with the de-stocking cycle for residential properties around 14.7 months, while second-tier cities are experiencing a longer cycle of 19.5 months [31]. - The second-hand home transaction proportion in first-tier cities was 63.7%, indicating a more mature market compared to second and third-tier cities [21][25]. - The new housing projects launched under the new regulations are expected to enhance the practicality, safety, and comfort of residential properties, potentially leading to a significant differentiation in new home sales [31].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is showing positive changes due to the dual effects of existing and new policies, with key cities like Shanghai and Hangzhou leading the recovery, while many other cities still need to implement precise measures for stabilization [3][5][37]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since the second half of 2024, the real estate market has seen a positive shift, with significant increases in transaction volumes and stabilization of price indices, particularly in core cities [3][4]. - In Q4 2024, new home transactions in key cities increased year-on-year, with Shenzhen's new home transactions surging by 146% [4][9]. - The inventory level has decreased to 202 million square meters, with the absorption cycle shortening to 19 months [3][4]. Group 2: City-Specific Insights - Shenzhen is the only city to achieve growth in both new and second-hand home transactions, with new home sales up 24% and second-hand sales up 48% in 2024 [4][17]. - Cities like Chengdu and Xi'an have a per capita housing area exceeding 1.5 square meters, indicating strong housing demand [4][18]. - The rental yield in typical cities averages 1.8%, with cities like Chongqing and Changsha showing higher returns [5][25]. Group 3: Inventory and Supply Dynamics - Nine cities, including Qingdao and Nanjing, have reduced their inventory by over 1 million square meters, indicating a significant acceleration in inventory reduction [27][31]. - Core areas in cities like Shenzhen and Xuzhou show a much shorter absorption cycle compared to the city average, highlighting structural opportunities [29][30]. Group 4: Investment Trends - Market-oriented enterprises are focusing on high-quality land reserves, with a significant portion of new projects achieving profitability [32][35]. - In 2024, 70% of new projects in cities like Hangzhou and Beijing reported profitability, reflecting strong market resilience [32][33]. Group 5: Policy Recommendations - Cities should balance demand stimulation with supply optimization, implementing precise control measures to achieve a new equilibrium in the market [39][45]. - The focus should be on enhancing the supply of quality land and optimizing existing assets to stimulate demand effectively [46][48]. Group 6: Future Outlook - Cities like Hangzhou and Shanghai are expected to lead the recovery in 2025, supported by favorable policies and strong economic fundamentals [39][42]. - The overall market is anticipated to stabilize, with a focus on structural adjustments and risk prevention measures [51][52].