房地产弱周期

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新增产能持续释放 PVC供应压力较大
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-10-21 23:25
Group 1: PVC Market Overview - PVC futures have shown a "V" shaped trend since June 2025, with market logic returning to fundamentals after a period of "anti-involution" [1] - As of now, 1.75 million tons of new PVC production capacity has been added in 2025, with major contributions from companies like Xinpu Chemical and Wanhu Fujian [1] - The total production capacity for PVC is expected to reach 1.95 million tons this year, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of approximately 7% [1] Group 2: Supply and Production Data - From January to September 2025, the cumulative PVC production reached 18.11 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.11%, with ethylene-based production growing by 9.78% [1] - The supply pressure is primarily driven by ethylene-based production, and with fewer maintenance activities in the fourth quarter, supply-side pressure is expected to increase further [1] Group 3: Demand and Real Estate Impact - PVC is closely linked to the real estate sector, which has seen a decline in investment and construction activities, with a 13.9% drop in real estate development investment from January to September 2025 [2] - The operating rates for downstream products, particularly those related to real estate, remain at historically low levels, indicating weak domestic demand for PVC [2] Group 4: Export Dynamics - Cumulative PVC powder exports from January to September 2025 reached 2.92 million tons, a significant year-on-year increase of 51%, with major markets including India and Vietnam [3] - However, the potential for export decline in the fourth quarter is a concern due to India's anti-dumping tax adjustments and ongoing trade tensions [3] Group 5: Inventory and Pricing - Domestic PVC social inventory stands at 1.0338 million tons, showing a slight decrease from the previous month but a year-on-year increase of 24.48% [3] - The prices of raw materials like calcium carbide and ethylene remain low, contributing to ongoing losses in production methods, yet the overall PVC operating rate has not decreased due to acceptable chlor-alkali profits [4] Group 6: Overall Market Sentiment - The PVC market is characterized by significant supply pressure and weak demand, particularly influenced by the downturn in the real estate sector [4] - The overall sentiment remains bearish, with caution advised for bottom-fishing strategies, while monitoring for potential stabilization signals in the market [4]