Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is experiencing a significant adjustment, with a predicted divergence in property values over the next decade, where first-tier cities may see price increases while third and fourth-tier cities may face declines [1][2][4]. Market Conditions - Since the second half of 2021, the Chinese real estate market has shown signs of "declining volume and price," with property prices remaining historically high despite a drop in sales performance by developers [1]. - In major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, property prices remain exorbitant, often exceeding six to seven million yuan, while second-tier cities like Hangzhou and Wuhan require two to three million yuan for home purchases [1]. Future Predictions - Predictions suggest that in ten years, property prices in first-tier cities may drop to around two hundred thousand yuan, while second-tier cities could see prices just above one million yuan, and third and fourth-tier cities may have prices around fifty to eighty thousand yuan [4]. - The expectation is that the real estate market will complete the "bubble-popping" process, aligning property prices more closely with local income levels [4]. Economic Impact - High property prices are currently hindering healthy economic development, contributing to declining birth rates and stagnant consumer demand, which cannot continue indefinitely [4]. - The real estate market has not undergone a significant adjustment in over twenty years, making a return to housing as a necessity inevitable [4]. Government Initiatives - Local governments are actively promoting affordable housing initiatives, including rental and shared ownership options, which will divert demand from the commodity housing market and reduce speculative investment motivations [5]. - The anticipated implementation of property taxes is expected to increase the burden on multiple property owners, discouraging speculative buying and creating downward pressure on property prices [5].