Core Insights - The real estate industry is entering a critical strategic window as it approaches the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2025, prompting companies to plan for the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) with a long-term perspective [2][4][5] Group 1: Market Trends - The real estate sales scale is expected to shrink by 40% over the next decade, with sales projected to decline to approximately 8 trillion to 8.5 trillion yuan in 2025 [7] - By 2035, new housing sales area is predicted to decrease by another 40% compared to 2024, resulting in an estimated 5.8 billion square meters [9] - Despite the decline in new housing, the second-hand housing and renovation markets are expected to fill the gap, with the overall real estate market potentially reaching 5.7 trillion yuan by 2035, a 70% increase from 2024 [10][20] Group 2: Developer Landscape - The market share of the top ten developers is projected to rise to nearly 50% by 2035, reflecting a concentration of power among a few key players [12] - The market share of these top developers in first and second-tier cities is expected to double from 30% in 2024 to around 60% by 2035 [14] - Developers are increasingly focusing on first and second-tier cities, with 92.5% of land acquisitions in 2024 concentrated in these areas [15] Group 3: Second-Hand Market Dynamics - By 2035, second-hand housing transactions are expected to account for two-thirds of the total market volume, with sales projected to reach between 8 billion to 9 billion square meters [16] - The increase in second-hand housing sales is significant, as it is anticipated to match the total sales volume of new housing, which is expected to be around 4.5 billion square meters by 2035 [19] Group 4: Renovation Market Growth - The renovation market is expected to nearly double by 2035, driven by increased demand from second-hand housing transactions and improvement needs [22][23] - The overall demand for renovation and second-hand housing is projected to create a market of 5.7 trillion yuan, significantly offsetting the decline in new housing construction [20][21]