01 政策背景：稳楼市，促经济，刚需不再是梦 购房新政靴子落地：重磅利好直击刚需，市场复苏动力几何？ 近几日，关于购房新政的传言如同春风吹拂，在微信群和朋友圈掀起层层涟漪，国家"大招"将至的呼声 此起彼伏。对于那些怀揣安居梦想的刚需一族而言，这消息无疑投下了一颗颗巨石，激起层层恐 慌："究竟是何方神圣？首付比例是否会松动？贷款利率又将如何调整？我的购房计划是否还要继续？" 尤其是一线城市，如北京、上海、深圳等，那些正值年华、风华正茂的年轻人们，他们或许刚刚迈入而 立之年，月收入勉强维持在一万五左右，却要面对动辄每平方米十万元的房价。计算下来，即便不吃不 喝，积攒够首付款也需要漫长的十年甚至更久。此刻，听到风声鹤唳，怎能安坐？ 然而，就在大家翘首以盼之际，住建部与中国人民银行联手，为首套房贷款政策带来了颠覆性的调整。 那么，这些细致入微的改革究竟会如何落地，又将为市场带来怎样的改变？让我们一同深入探究。 房贷利率迎来"降温"： 在LPR（贷款市场报价利率）下调的背景下，首套房贷款利率的最高上限被设定 在3.6%，相比此前的平均水平，利率下调了1.2个百分点。以广州的李先生（32岁）为例，他申请300万 元的贷款 ...

Core Insights - The real estate industry is entering a critical strategic window as it approaches the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2025, prompting companies to plan for the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) with a long-term perspective [2][4][5] Group 1: Market Trends - The real estate sales scale is expected to shrink by 40% over the next decade, with sales projected to decline to approximately 8 trillion to 8.5 trillion yuan in 2025 [7] - By 2035, new housing sales area is predicted to decrease by another 40% compared to 2024, resulting in an estimated 5.8 billion square meters [9] - Despite the decline in new housing, the second-hand housing and renovation markets are expected to fill the gap, with the overall real estate market potentially reaching 5.7 trillion yuan by 2035, a 70% increase from 2024 [10][20] Group 2: Developer Landscape - The market share of the top ten developers is projected to rise to nearly 50% by 2035, reflecting a concentration of power among a few key players [12] - The market share of these top developers in first and second-tier cities is expected to double from 30% in 2024 to around 60% by 2035 [14] - Developers are increasingly focusing on first and second-tier cities, with 92.5% of land acquisitions in 2024 concentrated in these areas [15] Group 3: Second-Hand Market Dynamics - By 2035, second-hand housing transactions are expected to account for two-thirds of the total market volume, with sales projected to reach between 8 billion to 9 billion square meters [16] - The increase in second-hand housing sales is significant, as it is anticipated to match the total sales volume of new housing, which is expected to be around 4.5 billion square meters by 2035 [19] Group 4: Renovation Market Growth - The renovation market is expected to nearly double by 2035, driven by increased demand from second-hand housing transactions and improvement needs [22][23] - The overall demand for renovation and second-hand housing is projected to create a market of 5.7 trillion yuan, significantly offsetting the decline in new housing construction [20][21]