January 30, 2026 08:44 AM GMT 中国 | Asia Pacific 漫长的季节 房地产的慢着陆未来两年或步入尾声。预计政策取向依然是 小幅尝试防超调，而非大力刺激强逆转。房价或进一步调 整15%，明年下半年初步企稳。这一过程中，房地产对经济的 拖累虽然收敛，但仍显著制约着消费和通缩。 决策层或继续引导房地产进行调整，同时设置必要的"防护栏"以避免无序下 跌。近期市场多次短暂轮动至传统经济板块，反映出投资者在房价再次加速下行 后，对⬀策层重演"924"政策转向的期待。我们对此持更为谨慎的观点。全国两会 之后，我们预计⬀策层仅会在基本面较稳健的部分城市实施小规模的按揭补贴， 以提供适度托底和风险消化空间，同时让价格进行必要的调整。 明年下半年之后逐步企稳。房价方面，继去年下跌12% 后，今明两年或进一步下 跌8%和6%。对于一些房价仍偏高的高线城市，企稳时间或将从此前预期的明年上 半年推迟至明年下半年。房地产对名义GDP的拖累仍较为显著，但随着调整趋 缓，其拖累幅度也将收敛：预计将从去年的-2.3个百分点，收窄至今年的-1.7个百 分点以及明年的-1.3个百分点。当前房价的调整路径也符 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate sector continues to face widespread losses, with most listed companies in the A-share market reporting varying degrees of deficit for 2025, except for the leading company, Poly Developments [2][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - Among the 27 listed real estate companies that have released performance forecasts, only Poly Developments reported a positive net profit of approximately 1.03 billion yuan, while the total losses of the other companies ranged from 47.546 billion to 62.464 billion yuan [3]. - Poly Developments experienced a revenue decline of 1.09% year-on-year, with a net profit drop of 79.49% due to decreased gross profit margins and anticipated asset impairment losses of about 6.9 billion yuan [3]. - Other companies, such as China Fortune Land Development, are projected to incur losses of 16 billion to 24 billion yuan for 2025, with net assets expected to decline by 10 billion to 15 billion yuan [4]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The real estate sector has been struggling with significant losses since 2022, attributed to factors such as low-profit project settlements, increased impairment provisions, and rising interest expenses [6]. - The sales volume of commercial housing is expected to decline by 12.6% year-on-year in 2025, indicating ongoing market challenges [7]. - The real estate development prosperity index has been on a downward trend, reaching 91.45 by December 2025, reflecting a sluggish economic activity in the sector [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the adjustment cycle in the real estate market may be nearing its end by 2026, with potential growth in the high-quality residential market driven by policy support and demand structure upgrades [8]. - Companies facing significant losses must manage their market value and ensure compliance with financial reporting to avoid delisting risks, which could arise from continuous losses or failure to meet revenue thresholds [9].