别人的股票涨停了，你是不是又亏了？本文将为你深度剖析新牛市的涨停板敢死队。 《每日经济新闻》记者注意到，早在2022年，坊间就有观点称，当前最火的游资不是方新侠、章盟主、 赵老哥、佛山无影脚，而是新生代95后游资金马路的陈小群(陈宴群)。 近年来，一些知名游资席位在龙虎榜的买卖行为，常被市场视为风向标。不过，总体而言，游资席位目 前仍然停留在"网传"阶段。 对于这些网传知名游资席位的可信度，《每日经济新闻》记者日前采访了多家券商的营业部负责人及资 深投顾，他们大多回应称，网传席位的可信度应该较高。 近年来，A股市场生态深刻重构，尤其是涨跌幅限制的差异化（如创业板20%、北交所30%的单日涨跌 幅限制）显著改变了游资的传统博弈模式。以陈小群为代表的新生代游资频繁现身龙虎榜，其操作手法 引发市场广泛关注。 新生代游资的诞生，是在A股涨停板幅度扩大的背景下发生的。而A股的涨停板制度一直是市场微观结 构的重要组成部分，并在很大程度上孕育了游资文化。从传统的10%涨跌幅限制，到如今创业板和科创 板的20%涨跌幅限制以及北交所的30%涨跌幅限制，这种涨停板制度的变化不仅改变了市场的波动空 间，更对游资的操作模式产生了显著 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the development of a sentiment timing model based on the analysis of limit-up stocks, "board strategies," and the profit effect, which successfully predicts short-term market sentiment changes [1]. Group 1: Sentiment Timing Model Construction - The annualized return of the sentiment timing model portfolio is 6.65% with a volatility of 15.37% and a maximum drawdown of 29.39% [2]. - The model also performs well when applied to broad indices such as the CSI 300 [2]. Group 2: Improvements to the Model - Improvement 1: By incorporating market trend judgments, the annualized return of the sentiment timing model portfolio increases to 9.41%, with a volatility of 17.98% and a maximum drawdown of 46.35% [3]. - Improvement 2: After applying factor weighting to different sentiment indicators, the annualized return reaches 9.68%, with a reduced volatility of 13.31% and a maximum drawdown of 24.47% [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the successful construction of a sentiment timing model that predicts market trends based on the number of stocks hitting the daily limit up or down, reflecting market sentiment and capital activity [1][2]. - The sentiment timing model integrates five key factors: board strategy return factor, next-day return factor for limit down stocks, proportion of limit up stocks, proportion of limit down stocks, and net limit up proportion factor, achieving an annualized return of 6.65% and a maximum drawdown of 29.39% [1][2]. - The model's performance is superior to the Wind All A Index and any single factor combination, demonstrating its effectiveness in predicting short-term market sentiment [1][2]. Group 2 - Improvement 1 involves incorporating overall market trend analysis, which enhances the model's ability to identify macroeconomic changes, resulting in an annualized return of 9.41% and a maximum drawdown of 46.35% [2]. - Improvement 2 includes weighting factor signals, leading to an annualized return of 9.68% and a maximum drawdown of 24.47%, significantly outperforming the Wind All A Index [2]. Group 3 - The underlying logic of the factors indicates that changes in the number of limit up and down stocks can directly reflect market sentiment, while the effectiveness of chasing and low-buy strategies reveals investor behavior and emotional tendencies [3]. - The limit up proportion factor and limit down proportion factor show strong performance in predicting short-term market sentiment, while the next-day return factor for limit up stocks is less reliable as a leading indicator [3].