技术区间
Search documents
RadexMarkets瑞德克斯:金银震荡中的政策指引与技术格局
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-11 09:31
Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a stable performance following the recent interest rate decision, with gold prices holding steady and silver maintaining an upward trend despite earlier record highs being retraced [1][3]. Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to lower the main interest rate range by 0.25% to 3.50%—3.75%, aligning with market expectations [1][3]. - The policy statement highlighted that inflation may remain sticky, indicating no urgency for further rate cuts in the short term [1][3]. Market Dynamics - Investors are focusing on the upcoming press conference, as the chairman's guidance on future policy paths will directly influence market pricing of the macro environment [1][4]. - The external market conditions include a weakening US dollar index, stable crude oil prices around $58.50 per barrel, and a 10-year US Treasury yield at 4.166%, all of which are key variables affecting precious metal volatility [1][4]. Market Structure - The gold market operates mainly through spot and futures mechanisms, with the spot market reflecting immediate transaction prices and the futures market locking in future delivery prices [2][4]. - Market liquidity tends to concentrate on the most active contracts, with December gold futures currently being the most frequently traded [2][4]. Technical Analysis - For February gold, the bullish target remains to break and close above $4433.00, while bears aim to push prices below the critical support level of $4100.00 [2][5]. - Short-term resistance levels are at $4251.70 and $4285.00, with support levels at $4197.80 and $4150.00, resulting in a market strength score of 7.0 [2][5]. - In silver, the March contract has broken upward through a "bull flag" pattern, indicating a bullish technical structure, with the next target for bulls being to surpass the $65.00 resistance [2][5]. - Short-term resistance for silver is at $62.14 and $63.00, while support is at $60.00 and $59.00, with a strength score of 9.5, indicating significant bullish advantage [2][5]. Overall Market Outlook - The precious metals market is expected to continue oscillating around macro policy expectations and technical ranges, with investors advised to monitor policy signals and technical positions to better navigate potential opportunities in a volatile market [3][5].