1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inventory structure of coking coal has improved compared to the previous period, with the end of the year - end surge in Mongolian coal imports and a possible decline in seaborne coal arrivals. The price rebound of coking coal depends on the resumption of production of domestic mines in the new year. If the resumption is less than expected, winter storage replenishment may drive the price up; otherwise, there will be significant pressure on the price rebound [2]. - After the fourth round of price cuts for coke, the immediate coking profit has declined marginally. The coking plants lack the enthusiasm to increase production. If the iron - making production recovers quickly, the supply - demand structure of coke is expected to improve, and the fifth round of price cuts may face significant resistance [2]. - The trend of coking coal and coke is expected to be in a volatile consolidation phase. The operating range of JM2605 is predicted to be between 1000 - 1150, and that of J2605 is between 1600 - 1760 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Coking coal: The end - of - year surge in Mongolian coal imports is over, but the inventory pressure in the port supervision area is still high. The Australian coal price index is stable with a slight increase, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets is severely inverted, narrowing the import window for seaborne coal. The subsequent arrivals of coking coal may decline. The key is to focus on the resumption of production of domestic mines in the new year [2]. - Coke: After the fourth round of price cuts, the immediate coking profit is under short - term pressure, and coking plants lack the motivation to increase production. Attention should be paid to the recovery elasticity of downstream steel mills [2]. 3.1.2 Market Positioning - Trend judgment: Volatile consolidation [10]. - Price range: JM2605 is expected to operate between 1000 - 1150; J2605 between 1600 - 1760 [10]. 3.1.3 Basic Data Overview - Coking coal supply: The operating rates of 523 mining enterprises and 314 coal - washing plants have declined, and the daily average output of raw coal and clean coal has decreased [10]. - Coking coal inventory: The total inventory of the coking coal sample has increased, with an increase in the inventory of independent coking plants and port - imported coking coal, and a decrease in the inventory of 247 steel mills [13]. - Coke supply: The operating rates and daily average output of independent coking plants and 247 steel mills have changed slightly [13]. - Coke inventory: The total inventory of the coke sample has increased, with a decrease in the inventory of independent coking plants and an increase in the inventory of 247 steel mills and port coke [13]. - Coal - coke futures prices: The spreads between different contracts of coking coal and coke have changed, and the spot prices of coking coal have not stopped falling. The fourth round of price cuts for coke has been fully implemented [14]. - Black warehouse receipt quantity: The warehouse receipt quantities of coking coal and coke have changed [15]. - Warehouse receipt cost and basis: The cost of coking coal and coke warehouse receipts varies, and the basis has also changed [16][20]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Some coking enterprises in Shandong and Jiangsu plan to raise the benchmark price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke by 20 - 30 yuan/ton, and some steel mills have accepted the price increase [21]. - Bearish information: Not provided in the document. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Monitor a series of economic data from the United States, such as the ISM manufacturing PMI in December, the final value of the S&P Global services PMI in December, ADP employment figures in December, initial jobless claims for the week ending January 3rd, and non - farm payrolls in December [25]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: The main contract of coking coal is supported around 1000 points. If there is no new driving force, the 05 contract of coking coal is expected to fluctuate between 1000 - 1150. The trend of coke still follows that of coking coal, and the 05 contract of coke is expected to fluctuate between 1600 - 1760 [26]. - Spread structure: The long - short spread of coking coal from January to May has strengthened, and the spread of coke from January to May has fluctuated at a low level. Attention can be paid to the reverse spread of coking coal from May to September, with an advisable entry interval of (- 40, - 50) [29]. - Basis structure: The main contract of coking coal has mainly fluctuated, and the spot prices of some coal types in Shanxi have been lowered. The 05 basis has continued to shrink, and the current basis of coking coal is neutral. The 05 basis of coke has shrunk. If the coke disk continues to rebound and is at a premium to the spot warehouse receipt, industrial customers with open positions are advised to sell for hedging [32]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Tracking of Upstream and Downstream Profits in the Industrial Chain - The theoretical profits of coking coal mines have shrunk, the immediate coking profits are under pressure, and the profitability of downstream steel mills has improved, showing that upstream mines and coking plants are transferring profits to downstream steel mills [46]. 3.4.2 Tracking of Import - Export Profits - The year - end surge in Mongolian coal imports is over, and the customs clearance pressure is expected to ease. The long - term contract price at the Mongolian coal pithead has increased by about 7 US dollars in the first quarter, and the estimated minimum cost of the long - term contract warehouse receipt is about 900 yuan/ton [51]. - The FOB quotes of Australian coal are firm, and the CFR prices in China remain unchanged, indicating strong overseas demand for coking coal. The theoretical import profit of domestic port seaborne coal has expanded, and the coal shipping volume has decreased week - on - week [55]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Deduction of the Coking Coal Supply Side - Considering the "good start" of mines in January, the supply of coking coal is expected to increase. It is currently estimated that the average weekly production of domestic coking coal in January will be about 923 - 925 million tons. In terms of imports, the average weekly import volume of coking coal may drop to about 250 million tons in January. Overall, the theoretical iron - making balance point of coking coal in January is expected to be 230 - 231 million tons per day [69]. 3.5.2 Deduction of the Coke Supply Side - After the full implementation of the fourth round of price cuts, it is rumored that the fifth round may start on the 10th. In the short term, the production enthusiasm of coking plants is average, and the coke output changes little. It is estimated that the average weekly production of coke in January will be 766 million tons. The net export volume of coke is linearly extrapolated, and it is estimated that the average weekly export volume of coke in January will be 15 million tons. Overall, the theoretical iron - making balance point of coke in January is expected to be 231 - 232 million tons per day [72]. 3.5.3 Deduction of the Demand Side - According to SMM's maintenance data, the iron - making output is expected to stabilize in the short term, and some steel mills have plans to resume production in January. The demand for coking coal and coke is expected to improve marginally. It is estimated that the average daily iron - making output per week in January will be 230 - 231 million tons [76]. 3.5.4 Deduction of the Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheets of coking coal and coke are presented, including production, net imports, total supply, supply - converted theoretical iron - making output, actual iron - making output, obvious inventory, and inventory changes [79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, Shanghai Aluminum is expected to maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern, while in the long - term, it is in an upward channel. Alumina is still in a supply - surplus situation, and the recent price increase is mainly due to emotional stimulation. Cast aluminum alloy shows a pattern of strong cost support but slow - growing demand [1][9][17]. - The core factors affecting aluminum prices are macro - policy expectations and fundamentals. Overseas macro mainly focuses on the Fed's monetary policy, and the rise and fall of interest - rate cut expectations dominate the financial - attribute pricing of the non - ferrous sector. The domestic fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are relatively stable, with external demand stronger than domestic demand [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - **Core Contradictions**: The core factors affecting aluminum prices are macro - policy expectations and fundamentals. Overseas, the focus is on the Fed's monetary policy, and the outcome of China - US tariff negotiations is in line with expectations. Domestically, the fundamentals are stable with external demand stronger than domestic demand. In the short - term, Shanghai Aluminum is affected by related varieties, and there is a short - term inventory accumulation. In the long - term, macro factors will drive the upward movement of aluminum prices, and the supply - demand balance of global electrolytic aluminum in 2026 will be tight or in short supply [1][7][9]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: The trend is expected to be high - level oscillation. For the monthly spread strategy, it is recommended to wait and see. When the spread between Shanghai Aluminum and aluminum alloy is too large, one can go long on aluminum alloy and short on Shanghai Aluminum for arbitrage. The recent strategies include interval operations, selling options, etc. [10]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Core Contradictions**: The supply of bauxite is sufficient, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. Alumina still has a supply - surplus problem, but the market interprets the NDRC's news as a control on alumina growth, which is mainly an emotional stimulus. In the short - term, the impact on fundamentals is limited. In the long - term, the supply - surplus pattern is difficult to change, but the price decline rate will slow down [12][17][19]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: The trend is expected to be weakly running. The price range is 2750 - 3050. It is recommended to sell the Alumina 2601 Call Option at 2900. For the basis and monthly spread strategies, it is recommended to wait and see, and there is no recommended hedging and arbitrage strategy [27]. 3.1.3 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Core Contradictions**: The core contradiction lies in the weak demand and high costs. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the downstream is in a mild recovery with general peak - season performance and downward pressure. In the long - term, the cost support is strong, but the demand growth rate slows down [25][30]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: The trend is expected to be oscillating and upward - trending. The price range is 19900 - 20800. When the spread between Shanghai Aluminum and aluminum alloy is greater than 500, one can go long on aluminum alloy and short on Shanghai Aluminum for arbitrage [31]. 3.1.4 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Provide price - range forecasts for alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy in the near future, as well as risk - management strategy recommendations, including inventory management and raw - material management strategies [32]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: On December 11, the social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased by 44,000 tons to 741,500 tons compared with the previous week. The US GDP in the third quarter of this year increased by 4.3% year - on - year, higher than the second - quarter growth rate of 3.8% and the market expectation of 3.2% [33]. - **Negative Information**: No information provided. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Overseas, on December 23, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded at a price of $335/mt FOB Brazil for February shipment. Domestically, there were transactions in the north and south markets, with different prices and quantities [34][36]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - On December 31, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending December 27 will be released [37]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Shanghai Aluminum was driven by related varieties and trended upward. The relationship between the main - contract position and price indicates that the market is mainly controlled by long - position forces. The positions of key seats and the total position show opposite trends, indicating that key seats take profits at high prices. The basis - monthly spread structure maintains a shallow C - shaped structure [38][41]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals remained unchanged this week, but the price rebounded sharply on Friday due to the NDRC's news. Long - position investors entered the market, the position increased significantly, and the net short - position decreased. The term structure is stable, but there is an obvious spread between the 2602 and 2603 contracts [54][58]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It moved with Shanghai Aluminum this week, but the position of the main contract decreased, and the positions of important seats remained oscillating. The term structure is stable, maintaining a shallow C - shaped structure [62][65]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - **Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain's Upstream and Downstream**: The supply - surplus situation of alumina persists, the spot price continues to decline, and the profit is compressed. The profit of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level [67]. - **Import - Export Profit Tracking**: The alumina import window remains open, while the import and export windows for electrolytic aluminum are closed, with only long - term Russian aluminum contracts flowing in, averaging about 200,000 tons per month [70][72]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction - **Supply - Demand Balance Deduction**: Provide quarterly balance sheets for electrolytic aluminum and monthly balance sheets for alumina, showing the supply - demand balance in different periods [74]. - **Supply - Side and Deduction**: The profit of electrolytic aluminum is high, and the domestic production capacity is approaching the ceiling, with little change in supply. Overseas, the supply increase is concentrated in Southeast Asia, mainly in 2026. Alumina prices are under pressure, and some high - cost enterprises may reduce production, which is expected to alleviate the surplus situation to some extent [75][76]. - **Demand - Side and Deduction**: The new - energy sector is the main driving force for the growth of China's electrolytic aluminum demand, but the growth rate is expected to slow down. The demand for aluminum in the construction sector is expected to decline negatively, and the overall consumption growth rate of electrolytic aluminum is expected to slow down but remain above 0.5% for a long time. Alumina demand is mainly for electrolytic - aluminum smelting, and the demand is estimated based on seasonality [78].

尽管当前基本面偏弱，但过去一周受宏观利多预期提振，铁矿石价格迎来反弹。展望2026年一季度，国 内政策有望释放"开门红"效应，叠加南半球铁矿石供应或受天气因素扰动，预计短期内铁矿石价格将保 持相对坚挺。不过，从全年维度看，2026年供应过剩压力凸显，铁矿石价格中期仍面临下行压力。 当前铁矿石基本面呈现供增需减格局，港口库存持续累积。11月下旬以来，全球铁矿石发运量呈上升趋 势，12月12日当周发运量创年初以来新高，同比大幅增长17.3%。与此同时，需求端持续收缩：过去一 周，247家钢厂铁水日均产量环比下降1.16%，至226.55万吨，已连续5周减产，同比亦减少1.2%。钢厂 对进口铁矿石采购保持谨慎态度，库存环比下降1.2%，连续2周主动去库，同比减少8.9%。最新数据显 示，45个港口铁矿石库存环比增加0.5%，至15512.63万吨，连续4周累积，同比上升3.6%，较去年年底 增长4.4%。 需求方面，预计2026年我国粗钢总需求同比下降1.5%，降幅较往年收窄。具体来看：其一，房地产库 存仍处高位，去库周期尚未结束，预计2026年新开工面积与施工面积继续承压，相关粗钢消费同比或下 降10.4%；尽管 ...

考虑到2026年是"十五五"开局之年，一季度政策往往具备"开门红"效应，加之南半球供应可能受季节性 天气扰动，预计铁矿石价格短期将保持韧性，港口最宜交割品仓单价格或将在760—820元／吨区间震荡 运行。 需求方面，预计2026年我国粗钢总需求同比下降1.5%，降幅较往年收窄。具体来看：其一，房地产库 存仍处高位，去库周期尚未结束，预计2026年新开工面积与施工面积继续承压，相关粗钢消费同比或下 降10.4%；尽管近两年"两重""两新"政策对基建和制造业投资形成提振，但单位投资耗钢强度持续下 降，导致非房地产领域粗钢消费不增反降。其二，2026年，随着经济转型深化及钢铁行业政策重心向供 给侧调整，耗钢强度预计进一步走低。不过，"十五五"开局之年基建与制造业投资增速有望加快，非房 地产粗钢消费降幅或边际收窄，中性估计同比下降2.0%。其三，在出口目的国布局优化、钢材出口品 种灵活调整，以及国内出口价格保持竞争优势的支撑下，预计2026年粗钢出口同比增加约1000万吨，增 幅约7.2%。 尽管当前基本面偏弱，但过去一周受宏观利多预期提振，铁矿石价格迎来反弹。展望2026年一季度，国 内政策有望释放"开门红"效应， ...

期货行情： | | | | 12月22日上海期货交易所休盘行情 (10: 15) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 昨結 | | 沪铜2602 | 94170 | 1450 | 93540 | 94200 | 93400 | 92720 | | 沪铝2602 | 22175 | ાં રેટ | 22295 | 22365 | 22165 | 22040 | | 室化铝2601 | 2496 | -28 | 2504 | 2526 | 2486 | 2524 | | 铸造铝2602 21240 | | 90 | 21300 | 21395 | 21220 | 21150 | | 沪锌2602 | 23060 | 40 | 23075 | 23150 | 22980 | 23020 | | 沪铝2602 | 16912 | રિ | 16970 | 17030 | 16890 | 16850 | | 沪镇2601 | 118350 | 2370 | 116600 | 11 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a stable performance following the recent interest rate decision, with gold prices holding steady and silver maintaining an upward trend despite earlier record highs being retraced [1][3]. Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to lower the main interest rate range by 0.25% to 3.50%—3.75%, aligning with market expectations [1][3]. - The policy statement highlighted that inflation may remain sticky, indicating no urgency for further rate cuts in the short term [1][3]. Market Dynamics - Investors are focusing on the upcoming press conference, as the chairman's guidance on future policy paths will directly influence market pricing of the macro environment [1][4]. - The external market conditions include a weakening US dollar index, stable crude oil prices around $58.50 per barrel, and a 10-year US Treasury yield at 4.166%, all of which are key variables affecting precious metal volatility [1][4]. Market Structure - The gold market operates mainly through spot and futures mechanisms, with the spot market reflecting immediate transaction prices and the futures market locking in future delivery prices [2][4]. - Market liquidity tends to concentrate on the most active contracts, with December gold futures currently being the most frequently traded [2][4]. Technical Analysis - For February gold, the bullish target remains to break and close above $4433.00, while bears aim to push prices below the critical support level of $4100.00 [2][5]. - Short-term resistance levels are at $4251.70 and $4285.00, with support levels at $4197.80 and $4150.00, resulting in a market strength score of 7.0 [2][5]. - In silver, the March contract has broken upward through a "bull flag" pattern, indicating a bullish technical structure, with the next target for bulls being to surpass the $65.00 resistance [2][5]. - Short-term resistance for silver is at $62.14 and $63.00, while support is at $60.00 and $59.00, with a strength score of 9.5, indicating significant bullish advantage [2][5]. Overall Market Outlook - The precious metals market is expected to continue oscillating around macro policy expectations and technical ranges, with investors advised to monitor policy signals and technical positions to better navigate potential opportunities in a volatile market [3][5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is experiencing a situation of both supply and demand decline, with steel prices fluctuating in the short - term. There are expectations for macro policies, but the improvement in the fundamental situation is limited [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Finished Products - **Supply**: The weekly output of rebar from major domestic steel mills was 1.8931 million tons (-167,700 tons), and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils was 3.1431 million tons (-47,000 tons). Rebar production decreased significantly, and hot - rolled coil production remained at a high level despite the decline [5][36]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils declined. Last week, the apparent demand for rebar was 2.1698 million tons (-109,600 tons), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 3.1486 million tons (-53,600 tons) [5]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory was 5.0381 million tons (-266,700 tons), social inventory was 3.6113 million tons (-236,200 tons), and steel mill inventory was 1.4268 million tons (-40,500 tons). Hot - rolled total inventory was 4.0035 million tons (-5,500 tons), social inventory was 3.2043 million tons (-24,500 tons), and steel mill inventory was 0.7992 million tons (+19,000 tons) [8]. - **Basis**: The basis of the rebar main contract was 133 yuan/ton (-7 yuan/ton), and the basis of the hot - rolled coil main contract was - 20 yuan/ton (-8 yuan/ton) [8][14]. - **Summary**: The steel mill profitability rate was 36.36%, a 1.3% week - on - week increase. The iron ore output was 2.323 million tons, a 23,800 - ton week - on - week decrease. The blast furnace operating rate was 80.16%, a 0.93% week - on - week decrease, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 87.08%, a 0.9% week - on - week decrease. The electric furnace operating rate was 67.72%, a 1.41% week - on - week decrease, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 53.82%, a 1.09% week - on - week increase [8]. - **Spot Price**: As of December 5, the average rebar price in major domestic cities was 3,326 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase, and the average hot - rolled coil price was 3,328 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase [11]. 3.2. Raw Materials - **Raw Material Price**: The price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1,450 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of main coking coal in Lvliang was 1,505 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port was 787 yuan/ton (-7 yuan/ton) [17]. - **Production and Operating Rate**: As of December 5, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.93% week - on - week, the electric furnace operating rate decreased by 1.41% week - on - week, and the iron ore output was 2.323 million tons, a 23,800 - ton week - on - week decrease. The Tangshan blast furnace operating rate was 93.51%, a 2.43% week - on - week increase [21][30]. 3.3. Market Demand - **Building Steel**: As of December 5, the weekly average building steel trading volume was 99,000 tons, remaining at a low level [44]. - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: As of December 5, the weekly average hot - rolled coil trading volume was 31,700 tons, and the downstream cold - rolled production was 855,200 tons, a 7,600 - ton week - on - week increase [48]. 3.4. Inventory - **Overall Steel Inventory**: As of December 5, the Tangshan billet inventory was 541,600 tons, a 18,100 - ton week - on - week decrease. The total inventory of major steel products was 9.7826 million tons, a 293,500 - ton week - on - week decrease [52]. - **Rebar Inventory**: Rebar total inventory decreased by 276,700 tons week - on - week, social inventory decreased by 236,200 tons, and steel mill inventory decreased by 40,500 tons [55]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory**: Hot - rolled coil total inventory decreased by 5,500 tons week - on - week, social inventory decreased by 24,500 tons, and steel mill inventory increased by 19,000 tons. The overall hot - rolled coil inventory remained at a high level [60]. 3.5. External Market - **Steel Exports**: In October, steel exports were 9.78 million tons, a 690,000 - ton month - on - month decrease. From January to October, cumulative steel exports were 97.737 million tons, a 6.6% year - on - year increase. In October, hot - rolled coil exports were 1.6415 million tons [65]. - **Automobile Production and Sales**: In October, automobile production was 3.3587 million vehicles, an 82,900 - vehicle month - on - month increase; automobile sales were 3.3221 million tons, a 95,700 - ton month - on - month increase. New - energy vehicle production was 1.772 million vehicles, a 155,000 - vehicle month - on - month increase, and new - energy vehicle sales were 1.715 million tons, an 111,000 - ton month - on - month increase [69]. - **Real Estate Data**: From January to October, real estate investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in new housing starts was 19.8%, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in housing completion was 16.9%, the year - on - year decrease in commercial housing sales area was 6.8%, the year - on - year decrease in commercial housing sales was 9.6%, and the year - on - year decrease in available funds was 9.7% [72].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry in the black building materials sector is "volatile" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market is in a macro - policy vacuum period, but there may be expectations later. The fundamentals show that last week, the output of rebar decreased, the output of hot - rolled coils increased, and the output of five major steel products increased. The apparent demand has changed from increase to decrease, and the inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils continues to be destocked, but the destocking speed slows down. Overall, the supply and demand are both weak. The market trading logic may still be at the industrial level, with insufficient marginal increment on the demand side. In the short term, the upside space is cautiously viewed, and the market is mainly in a volatile trend. Later, attention should be paid to the transformation of the trading logic to macro - expectations [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, rebar closed flat and hot - rolled coils closed down. They also closed down at night [1] Important Information - In October 2025, the national stainless - steel crude steel output was 3.6244 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 78,700 tons or 2.22%. In October, China's stainless - steel imports were 124,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,800 tons or 3.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 34,100 tons or 21.56%. From January to October, the total stainless - steel imports were 1.2621 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 343,000 tons or 21.37%. In October, the domestic stainless - steel exports were 358,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60,400 tons or 14.43% and a year - on - year decrease of 59,300 tons or 14.2%. From January to October, the cumulative exports were 4.1408 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1,600 tons or 0.04%. In October, China's stainless - steel apparent consumption was 3.0459 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 166,300 tons or 4.68% [1] - Chinalco Group: The first shipment of iron ore from the Simandou project was successfully sent, carrying 200,000 tons of iron ore [1] - On December 3rd, the average cost of 76 independent electric - arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,320 yuan/ton, a day - on - day decrease of 3 yuan/ton. The average profit was a loss of 29 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit was 79 yuan/ton [1] - According to the preliminary statistics of the Passenger Car Association, in November, the national passenger car market retail sales were 2.263 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. Among them, the new - energy market retail sales were 1.354 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7%, and the new - energy market retail penetration rate was 59.8% [1] Market Logic - In the macro - policy vacuum period, there may be expectations later. Fundamentally, last week, the output of rebar decreased, the output of hot - rolled coils increased, and the output of five major steel products increased. The apparent demand has changed from increase to decrease, and the inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils continues to be destocked, but the destocking speed slows down. Overall, the supply and demand are both weak [1] Trading Strategy - The upward movement of the futures price is weak. The market trading logic may still be at the industrial level, with insufficient marginal increment on the demand side. In the short term, the upside space is cautiously viewed, and the market is mainly in a volatile trend. Later, attention should be paid to the transformation of the trading logic to macro - expectations. The main contract has been rolled over to the May contract. The resistance level of the rebar 2605 contract is 3,200, and the strong support level is around 3,050. It is not recommended to chase long for now [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the market [1] - **Hot Rolled Steel**: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the market [1] - **Iron Ore**: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium state with poor market operability, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the market [1] - **Coking Coal**: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium state with poor market operability, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the market [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★☆★, indicating a certain bullish trend [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is affected by factors such as demand, production, and policies, with a generally weak domestic demand and a high but declining export. The market shows an oscillating and slightly stronger trend [2] - The iron ore market has a loose fundamental situation, with strong supply and weakening demand. The market is expected to oscillate [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are influenced by downstream demand, carbon element supply, and inventory. Coke prices are likely to continue the rebound, while coking coal prices may be dragged down [4][6] - The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are affected by supply, demand, and raw material factors. Their prices are oscillating, and the bottom - support strength needs to be observed [7][8] Summary by Commodity Steel - **Market Performance**: The market oscillated today. Thread steel's apparent demand and production declined slightly, and inventory continued to fall. Hot - rolled steel demand declined, production increased, and inventory decreased slowly [2] - **Supply and Demand**: Iron - water production declined, and downstream acceptance was insufficient. Steel mills continued to operate at a loss, with a high possibility of further blast - furnace production cuts. Domestic demand was weak, and steel exports declined from a high level [2] - **Market Outlook**: Spot prices were relatively strong in the off - season. With positive policy expectations, the market will continue to oscillate and strengthen, but the rhythm may fluctuate [2] Iron Ore - **Supply**: Global shipments were strong, the first shipment of iron ore from Simandou was sent, and domestic arrival volume was high. Port inventory continued to accumulate and was approaching the annual high [3] - **Demand**: Steel's apparent demand was low, in the off - season and with poor profitability. Iron - water was in a production - cut trend, and iron - ore demand had room to further weaken [3] - **Market Outlook**: The macro atmosphere was warm, and there were expectations for policy benefits. The market was expected to oscillate [3] Coke - **Market Performance**: The price oscillated strongly during the day, with a slight rebound due to expectations of downstream replenishment [4] - **Supply and Demand**: Coking profits were average, daily production increased slightly, and inventory increased slightly. Downstream demand had some resilience, but steel mills had a strong desire to lower raw - material prices [4] - **Market Outlook**: The futures price was at a premium, and the price was likely to continue the rebound in the short term [4] Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The price oscillated strongly during the day, rebounding due to expectations of downstream replenishment [6] - **Supply and Demand**: Coking - coal mine production increased slightly, spot auction transactions were average with mostly falling prices, and terminal inventory decreased slightly. Total coking - coal inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, and production - end inventory increased slightly [6] - **Market Outlook**: The futures price was at a discount, and the price was likely to be dragged down by high Mongolian coal imports in the short term [6] Silicon Manganese - **Market Performance**: The price oscillated during the day. Manganese - ore spot prices increased due to the futures rebound [7] - **Supply and Demand**: Iron - water production decreased seasonally, weekly silicon - manganese production decreased slightly but was still at a high level, and inventory increased slowly [7] - **Market Outlook**: Supply decreased, inventory decreased slightly, and the bottom - support strength needs to be observed. Pay attention to the impact of reduced shipments from Ghana [7] Silicon Iron - **Market Performance**: The price oscillated during the day [8] - **Supply and Demand**: There were expectations for coal supply guarantee, leading to expectations of lower electricity costs and semi - coke prices. Iron - water production rebounded to a high level, export demand decreased slightly, and magnesium production increased. Overall demand had some resilience. Supply decreased, and inventory decreased slightly [8] - **Market Outlook**: Observe the bottom - support strength [8]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the coal and coke industry remain weak with stable domestic coal production, high - level Mongolian coal imports, and a downward trend in domestic hot metal production, but there are signs of increasing market trading of macro - level policy expectations, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Market Conditions - Yesterday, the futures prices of coal and coke oscillated and rebounded, leading the black metal sector with sharp price fluctuations. The positions of the 01 contract were gradually transferred to the 05 contract. The spot market was generally weak, with coal prices in some domestic regions experiencing supplementary declines, and the first round of coke price cuts was implemented in mainstream steel mills in Hebei and Shandong [2] Fundamentals - **Supply side**: Last week, the production of multiple coal mines in Linfen and Lüliang, Shanxi decreased due to various reasons for shutdowns, and most shutdowns were for a long time, so there was little room for a significant increase in coal mine output in the short term. In December, some coal mines said that the year - end production tasks were nearly completed, the pressure on safety production was high, and the downstream's willingness to purchase weakened, leading to a slight increase in self - controlled production and reduction by coal mines. The daily average output of coking coal last week was 76.4 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 3.2 million tons. The daily average customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal last week slightly decreased to 17 million tons, a decrease of 1.3 million tons from the previous week, but the overall customs clearance level remained high, and the ports continued to increase inventory, with the decline in Mongolian coal prices dragging down domestic coal prices [2] - **Demand side**: The demand continued to be under pressure. The procurement rhythm of downstream coal - using enterprises slowed down recently, causing the upstream mines to accumulate inventory. The coking production was okay, but the profitability of steel mills shrank, the blast furnace operating rate decreased, and the daily average hot metal output dropped to 234.68 million tons, a decrease of 1.6 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 0.81 million tons compared with last year, with room for further decline in December [2] Future Focus - Pay attention to the changes in the blast furnace operation of steel mills and the resumption of coal mines [3]