Group 1 - Recent fluctuations in the gold market are driven by changing risk sentiment and macroeconomic policy expectations, leading to intense market dynamics [1] - On Monday, gold prices fell by 3.2%, dropping below the psychological threshold of $4000 per ounce, marking a new low since October 10 [1] - Analysts noted that rising U.S. Treasury yields have diminished the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset [1] Group 2 - On Tuesday, gold prices showed signs of stabilization, rebounding by 0.57% to $4004.26 per ounce, despite being down from the year's high of $4380 per ounce [1] - The year-to-date increase in gold prices remains over 50%, indicating long-term resilience in the market [1] - This performance is attributed to ongoing gold purchases by central banks and investor concerns over global fiscal deficits, which have driven demand for gold as a hedge against currency depreciation [1] Group 3 - Professional institutions are adopting a cautious stance regarding recent market volatility, with experts advising patience before making tactical investment decisions [4] - The World Gold Council's market strategist indicated that central bank gold purchases have slowed compared to previous peaks, suggesting that a more thorough price adjustment could benefit market health [4] - Citigroup's analysts predict that gold prices may face further adjustments in the coming months, potentially targeting around $3800 per ounce due to weakening upward momentum and reduced short-term risk demand [4] Group 4 - The macroeconomic environment suggests that the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in its upcoming policy meeting, marking the second consecutive rate cut [4] - While a loose monetary policy environment typically supports gold, the recent rapid rise in U.S. Treasury yields has temporarily offset this positive impact [4] - Anticipated changes in the Federal Reserve's leadership are adding uncertainty to the global asset allocation landscape, which is being closely monitored by the market [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the black building materials industry. However, for individual varieties, the mid - term outlook for most is "oscillation", including steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon [7][8][10]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The black building materials industry chain operates stably. Coal mine supply recovery is slower than expected, supporting coking coal and coke prices, but it's difficult to spread the impact to other varieties in the sector. Meanwhile, with continuous macro and policy expectations, short - term prices of sector varieties will remain oscillating, and attention should be paid to rebound opportunities under the background of policy introduction [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments have slightly increased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has declined from a high level. The sample daily average output of hot metal continues to decline, and the market's expectation of weakening hot metal has increased. Port inventory continues to accumulate, and the pressure is not significant. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Scrap Steel**: Supply has decreased significantly this week, and demand has also declined. Steel mills' inventories are slightly reduced. The short - term price is expected to follow the trend of finished products [10]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The second round of price increase is likely to be implemented. With short - term rigid demand from steel mills and strong raw materials, the price is expected to oscillate [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is frequently disrupted, and mid - and downstream procurement is active. The fundamentals are healthy, but the upward driving force of furnace materials is limited under the pressure of steel products. The price is expected to oscillate [2]. 3.3 Alloys - **Ferromanganese**: Cost reduction is limited, steel production is at a high level, and macro - policy expectations support the price, but the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and the medium - and long - term price center may decline [2]. - **Ferrosilicon**: High finished product output and stable cost support the price, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the expected upward price limit is limited [2]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Upstream inventory continues to accumulate, and the short - term price shows an oscillating and weakening trend. In the medium and long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price may continue to oscillate downward [3][12]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to follow macro fluctuations and oscillate widely, and the long - term price center will decline [3]. 3.5 Steel - The inventory of steel continues to decrease, but it is at a moderately high level. The contradiction in the fundamentals needs time to ease. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the strengthening of the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar [7]. 3.6 Commodity Index - On October 23, 2025, the comprehensive index, including the commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial products index, and PPI commodity index, showed an upward trend, with increases of 0.70%, 0.58%, 1.12%, and 0.86% respectively. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.93% on that day, 2.20% in the past 5 days, decreased by 2.29% in the past month, and decreased by 4.73% since the beginning of the year [102][103].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "sideways" outlook for the mid - term of the black building materials industry [7]. 2. Core Views of the Report - As the peak season draws to an end, although the demand for steel products has a slight month - on - month improvement, it cannot strongly support the prices of sector varieties. After the "15th Five - Year Plan" related meeting on October 23, the trading expectation around the introduction of favorable policies is expected to heat up. The fundamentals' guidance for prices will be "blunted", and short - term sector varieties may remain volatile. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the rebound opportunities under the background of policy introduction [1][2][6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals of iron ore have slightly weakened at the margin, but the overall contradiction is not significant. The overseas mine shipments have a slight month - on - month rebound, the arrival volume at 45 ports has declined from a high level, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. The daily output of sample hot metal and the steel mill profitability rate have continued to decline slightly, but the hot metal is still at a high level. It is expected that the short - term price will fluctuate. The port trading volume is 122.9(+21.8) million tons, the swap main contract is 105.08(+0.52) dollars/ton, and the PB powder is 781(+4) yuan/ton [2][9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply of scrap steel is relatively stable, with a significant decline in the arrival volume this week and a slight year - on - year decrease, and a slight rebound in yesterday's arrival at the port. The demand has seen a slight increase in the daily consumption of scrap steel due to the resumption of some electric furnaces after the festival, and a decrease in the daily consumption of long - process scrap steel due to a slight decline in hot metal production. The inventory has increased slightly in steel enterprises. It is expected that the short - term price will follow the trend of finished products. The average tax - free price of shredded materials in East China is 2173(+1) yuan/ton, and the price difference between rebar and scrap steel in East China is 945(+9) yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The profit margins of the coking and steel sectors have both narrowed, and the game between coking plants and steel mills continues. With the hot metal remaining at a high level in the short term, the expectation of a price increase is strong. It is expected that the coke price will fluctuate. The futures market fluctuated yesterday, and the spot price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port is 1470(+20) yuan/ton [12][13]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply has been disrupted, and capacity release is still restricted. The demand for coke production can provide rigid support in the short term, and the fundamentals are relatively healthy with low upstream inventory. However, with the steel under pressure, the upward driving force of furnace materials is temporarily limited. It is expected that the coking coal price will fluctuate in the short term. The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu is 1300 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 cleaned coal in Wubulangkou Jinquan Industrial Park is 1307 yuan/ton [12][13]. 3.3 Alloys - **Silicomanganese**: Cost reduction is limited, steel production is at a high level, and macro - policy expectations support the price. However, the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and the price center may shift downward in the medium - to - long - term. The main contract price of silicomanganese rose yesterday. The ex - factory price of 6517 silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia is 5680 yuan/ton, and the price of Australian ore blocks with 45.0% Mn at Tianjin Port is 39 yuan/ton - degree [16][18]. - **Ferrosilicon**: High steel production, macro - policy expectations, and firm cost support the price. However, the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the rebound height of the ferrosilicon price is expected to be limited. The main contract price of ferrosilicon rose yesterday, and the ex - factory price of 72 ferrosilicon in Ningxia is 5180(+50) yuan/ton [19]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The upstream inventory has been continuously accumulating, and after the negative feedback between futures and spot, the short - term price shows a weak and volatile trend. The mid - stream has not significantly reduced inventory, and it is difficult to have a rebound in the short term. In the medium - to - long - term, market - oriented production capacity reduction is still needed. If the market refocuses on fundamentals, the price may continue to decline. The mainstream large - plate price in North China is 1140(-20) yuan/ton, and the national average price is 1196(-7) yuan/ton [3][14]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to follow the macro - fluctuations and have a wide - range volatile trend. In the long run, the price center will continue to decline to promote production capacity reduction. The delivered price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1160 yuan/ton, the daily production is 105,000 tons, and the upstream inventory increased by about 10,000 tons on Monday [16]. 3.5 Steel Products - The spot market transactions are average, with a strong willingness to sell at low prices. The profit of blast furnaces and electric furnaces is not good, but the profitability rate of steel mills is still relatively high. The downward trend of hot metal is not obvious, and there is a situation of electric furnace restart. The supply of steel products is at a relatively high level. The demand continues to recover, but the recovery height is still limited. The steel inventory continues to decline, but the inventory level is still at a moderately high level. It is expected that the short - term futures market will fluctuate at a low level. The price of Hangzhou rebar is 3170(+20) yuan/ton, the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil is 3260(+10) yuan/ton, the trading volume of construction steel is 107,573(+6,422) tons, and the trading volume of hot - rolled coil is 35,237(+2,107) tons [9].

Core Viewpoint - The steel market, particularly rebar, is experiencing weakened demand and price fluctuations due to ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector, leading to increased inventory pressure and a lack of significant improvement in demand [1][2]. Group 1: Rebar Market Dynamics - The traditional peak season for rebar, known as "Golden September and Silver October," has diminished, with inventory levels during the National Day holiday exceeding historical averages [1]. - Rebar prices are showing weak fluctuations, while raw material prices remain strong, indicating a lack of negative feedback in the supply chain [1]. - Steel mills are implementing production control measures to alleviate inventory pressure, resulting in lower rebar production levels this year [1]. Group 2: Hot Roll and Steel Billet Risks - The main risks for hot-rolled steel in Q4 include a decline in domestic demand and pressure on exports, with downstream orders for cold-rolled galvanized products shrinking [2]. - Hot-rolled steel inventory levels are higher than the same period last year, indicating potential oversupply [2]. - Steel billet exports have surged, reaching a historical high of 1.76 million tons in August, but production profits are now negative, raising concerns about future output [2]. Group 3: Raw Material and Cost Dynamics - High pig iron production is supporting raw material prices, with coal and iron ore prices outperforming finished steel since August [3]. - Rebar production profits are currently low, with long-process profits below 100 yuan per ton and short-process profits around -100 yuan per ton [3]. - The cost support for rebar remains intact due to healthy fundamentals in the raw material sector, despite the lack of significant upward momentum in rebar prices [3]. Group 4: Macro Factors and Market Sentiment - The market is closely monitoring macroeconomic factors, including upcoming political meetings and monetary policy decisions, which could influence rebar prices [3]. - There is a notable contradiction between weak demand and strong cost support for rebar, but the situation has not yet reached a level of negative feedback that would significantly impact prices [3]. - Overall, the rebar market is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend, with caution advised regarding potential volatility due to changing market expectations [3].

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, on October 14, the price of the main futures SA601 contract continued to decline. The supply is high with inventory decreasing, but the overall weak pattern remains unchanged. With stable supply and downstream purchasing at low prices, the fundamental driving force is still insufficient. The market's oversupply situation has not improved effectively. Without substantial positive factors, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. - For glass, after the festival, the overall situation is a loose supply and weak demand, with increased inventory pressure suppressing the rebound of the futures price. The current futures price is mainly driven by fundamentals and remains at a low level. One should not short too aggressively and needs to continuously monitor macro - policies and production line changes [9]. Summary by Directory I. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash Futures Data**: On October 14, the closing price of the SA601 contract was 1,234 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.72% and a daily increase in positions of 5,914 lots. The SA605 contract closed at 1,321 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.90% and an increase in positions of 4,208 lots [7][8]. - **Soda Ash Fundamentals**: Weekly production slightly decreased by 0.66 million tons to 77.08 million tons, a 0.85% month - on - month decrease but still at a high level. The total shipment volume in late September was 88.10 million tons, a 11.86% month - on - month increase. The factory inventory dropped to 165.15 million tons [8]. - **Glass Futures Data**: The FG601 contract closed at 1,138 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton with a decline of 3.39% and an increase in positions of 122,933 lots. The FG603 contract closed at 1,212 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton with a decline of 2.57% and an increase in positions of 4,968 lots [7]. - **Glass Fundamentals**: The production of float glass is stable with the arrival of the peak season, and the photovoltaic glass is in a weak - balanced state. After the festival, the supply is loose, demand is weak, and inventory pressure has increased [9]. II. Data Overview - The report provides charts of soda ash and glass, including the price trends of active contracts, weekly production, enterprise inventory, market prices of heavy soda ash in Central China, and flat glass production, with data sources from Wind, iFind, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [11][13][15]

Core Viewpoint - The steel market, particularly rebar, is experiencing weak demand and inventory pressure due to the ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector, leading to a subdued performance during the traditional peak seasons [1][4]. Group 1: Rebar Market Dynamics - The demand for rebar is expected to remain weak as new construction and construction area data continue to adjust downward, prompting steel mills to implement production control measures [1][4]. - Despite low rebar production levels, the supply-demand structure still faces pressure, with a notable shift in production towards hot-rolled coils and steel billets due to profit differentials [1][2]. - As of October 10, the average daily molten iron output from 247 steel enterprises remains above 2.4 million tons, indicating high production levels despite the weak demand [1]. Group 2: Hot-Rolled Coil Risks - The main risks for hot-rolled coils in Q4 include a potential decline in domestic demand and export pressures, with downstream orders for cold-rolled galvanized products shrinking [2]. - Current hot-rolled coil inventory levels and accumulation rates are higher than the same period last year, indicating a potential oversupply situation [2]. - The EU's plans to reduce steel import quotas and impose a 50% tariff, along with escalating trade tensions between China and the U.S., add uncertainty to steel exports [2]. Group 3: Steel Billet Export Trends - In August, China's steel billet exports reached 1.76 million tons, marking a historical high with a 12% month-on-month increase and a 230% year-on-year increase [2]. - However, steel billet production profits have turned negative, raising concerns about potential production declines in the future [2]. - The high energy consumption associated with steel billet exports is seen as a waste of domestic processing capabilities, leading to increased competition in the market [2]. Group 4: Raw Material Price Support - High molten iron production has supported raw material prices, with coal and iron ore prices performing better than finished steel products since August [3]. - As of October 13, rebar long-process profits are below 100 yuan per ton, while short-process profits in Jiangsu are around -100 yuan per ton, indicating pressure on steel mill profitability [3]. - The lack of a significant downward correlation between raw material and finished product prices suggests that cost support for rebar remains, limiting downside potential [3]. Group 5: Macro Factors and Market Sentiment - The rebar market is currently facing a contradiction between weak demand and strong costs, but this has not yet reached a level of negative feedback that would significantly impact prices [4]. - Concerns over escalating trade tensions and expectations from upcoming important meetings may lead to increased market volatility [4]. - Overall, the rebar market is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend under various constraints, with potential for short-term weakness driven by market sentiment [4].

Core Viewpoint - The hot-rolled futures market shows a slight increase in prices and a rise in open interest, indicating potential market stabilization after a period of decline [1][3]. Market Data Summary - As of the week ending October 9, hot-rolled steel production was 4.1032 million tons, a decrease of 0.0094 million tons week-on-week [2]. - Factory inventory stood at 1.0809 million tons, an increase of 0.0399 million tons week-on-week [2]. - Social inventory reached 3.5923 million tons, up by 0.2586 million tons week-on-week [2]. - Demand was recorded at 3.8047 million tons, increasing by 0.3318 million tons week-on-week [2]. - The weekly price of hot-rolled futures opened at 3,260 yuan/ton, peaked at 3,311 yuan/ton, and dipped to a low of 3,258 yuan/ton, resulting in a weekly change of 0.34% [1]. Institutional Insights - Zhongyuan Futures noted a significant accumulation of inventory, particularly in social stocks, and emphasized the need to monitor downstream demand [3]. - Jianxin Futures observed that the market for rebar and hot-rolled futures stabilized post-holiday, with expectations of a rebound in the steel market driven by changes in iron ore supply and coal prices [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: Affected by the divergence in Fed policy expectations, geopolitical risks, and changes in gold ETF holdings, the medium - to long - term outlook for gold is supported by the Fed's potential interest rate cuts and declining real interest rates [3]. - **Copper**: The impact of the Freeport copper mine incident exceeded expectations, causing short - term over - appreciation of copper prices [19]. - **Aluminum**: After the September interest rate cut, the macro - driving force subsided. The trading of Shanghai aluminum may focus on fundamentals, and short - term prices may fluctuate with a slight upward trend [37]. - **Zinc**: The supply side is in a surplus state, and the demand side shows no signs of a peak season. In the short term, zinc prices will likely move in a range, and the current trading strategy is mainly based on the long - domestic and short - overseas logic [67]. - **Nickel**: Concerns about the stability of nickel ore supply have increased, and prices of MHP and nickel salts may continue to rise. Nickel iron prices are restricted by stainless steel demand, and stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [82]. - **Tin**: With the Fed's interest rate decision settled, the macro impact on tin prices has diminished. In the short term, due to tight supply and weak demand, tin prices are likely to move in a range [97]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: As the National Day approaches, the market's expectation of a shutdown on September 30 has decreased significantly. Before the National Day holiday, lithium carbonate futures prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate [108]. - **Silicon**: Before the National Day, the willingness to stock up has declined. The industrial silicon market will continue the pattern of "strong expectation, weak reality." Polysilicon prices fluctuate sharply, and investors are advised to be cautious [117]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Influence Factors**: Fed policy expectations, geopolitical risks, and changes in gold ETF holdings affect gold prices. The upward revision of the US Q2 GDP restrains short - term interest rate cut expectations, while geopolitical risks and increased domestic gold ETF holdings provide support [3]. - **Price Charts**: Include SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios, and the relationship between gold and US Treasury real interest rates [4][9]. Copper - **Market Situation**: The impact of the Freeport copper mine incident was longer than expected, leading to short - term over - appreciation of copper prices [19]. - **Price Data**: Spot and futures prices showed different changes. For example, Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper decreased by 0.02%, while Guangdong Southern Storage increased by 0.22%. In the futures market, the Shanghai copper main contract decreased by 0.29% [22][23]. - **Inventory and Import Data**: Copper inventories in various regions changed, and copper imports showed a significant increase in losses [34][28]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: The core factors affecting aluminum prices are macro - policy expectations and peak - season fundamentals. After the September interest rate cut, the focus shifted to fundamentals, and short - term prices may fluctuate with a slight upward trend [37]. - **Alumina**: The contradiction in bauxite lies in the tight domestic supply and low shipments from Guinea, while the inventory is at a high level. Alumina supply is in surplus, and short - term prices are likely to be weak [38]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: After the macro - driving force subsided, the market focused on fundamentals. With mixed long and short factors, short - term prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate [39]. - **Price and Spread Data**: Provided prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, as well as various spreads and basis data [40][44][52]. - **Inventory Data**: Aluminum and alumina inventories in different regions changed, and the impact on prices needs to be monitored [61]. Zinc - **Market Situation**: The supply side is in a surplus state, and the demand side shows no signs of a peak season. LME inventories are decreasing, showing an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. Short - term prices are likely to move in a range [67]. - **Price Data**: Zinc futures and spot prices showed different changes, and various spreads and basis data were provided [68][73]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai zinc and LME zinc inventories changed, and the impact on prices needs to be observed [78]. Nickel - **Market Situation**: Concerns about the stability of nickel ore supply have increased, and prices of MHP and nickel salts may continue to rise. Nickel iron prices are restricted by stainless steel demand, and stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [82]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Provided prices of nickel, nickel iron, and stainless steel, as well as inventory data [83]. Tin - **Market Situation**: After the Fed's interest rate decision, the macro impact on tin prices has diminished. In the short term, due to tight supply and weak demand, tin prices are likely to move in a range [97]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Provided tin futures and spot prices, as well as inventory data [98][104]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: As the National Day approaches, the market's expectation of a shutdown on September 30 has decreased significantly. Before the National Day holiday, lithium carbonate futures prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate [108]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Provided lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, as well as inventory data [109][111][115]. Silicon - **Market Situation**: Before the National Day, the willingness to stock up has declined. The industrial silicon market will continue the pattern of "strong expectation, weak reality." Polysilicon prices fluctuate sharply, and investors are advised to be cautious [117]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Provided prices of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and other products, as well as inventory data [118][119][146].

Macroeconomic Analysis - The GDP growth rate for Q3 is estimated at around 4.8%, down from approximately 5% in July, indicating a noticeable slowdown in economic data [1] - The "trade-in" policy's marginal effectiveness has weakened, with retail sales in August increasing by only 3.4%, a decline of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [1] - Fixed asset investment growth has decreased, with August's cumulative year-on-year growth at 0.5%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month [2] - Exports maintained a relatively high level, with August exports growing by 4.4%, although this is a decline from 7.2% in July [2] - Borrowing willingness among enterprises and households remains weak, with social financing stock growth at 8.8%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [2] Economic and Financial Concerns for Q4 - Limited consumer recovery and urgent need for additional government subsidies, as consumer employment indices are low, affecting income and spending [3] - Investment faces downward pressure, particularly in manufacturing and real estate, with no signs of stabilization in the real estate market [3] - Low inflation persists, with core CPI remaining below 1%, influenced by weak domestic demand and external supply pressures [3] Capital Market Trends - Market liquidity is overall abundant, with non-bank financial institutions' deposits increasing, suggesting a positive feedback loop for stock market inflows [4] - External risks are easing, with successful tariff negotiations and signals of potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [5] - Macro policy expectations have risen, with initiatives to address "involution" in competition and promote the AI industry [5] Market Funding Structure Changes - Current market funding primarily comes from private equity, speculative funds, and leveraged capital, with significant growth in private equity fund registrations [6] - There has been no significant increase in new individual accounts on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, indicating a lack of strong retail investor interest [6] - Residents' funds may be entering the stock market through bank wealth management products, despite a rising savings inclination [7] Current Market Focus - Key issues include the progress of US-China tariff negotiations and potential changes in Trump's policies towards China [8] - The effectiveness of measures to address "involution" in competition and policies to stabilize growth in service consumption and real estate are under scrutiny [8] Policy Recommendations - Further guidance is needed to attract long-term funds into the market, optimizing mechanisms for social security and pension investments [9] - Strengthening policy coordination and expectations management is essential to stabilize market confidence amid external uncertainties [9] - Enhanced regulation and risk prevention measures are necessary to monitor leveraged funds and prevent excessive speculation [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The economic data in July - August reveals a complex macro - economic situation. There is pressure of marginal slowdown in economic growth, but counter - cyclical policies are in place. The stock market is strong, and the commodity market is volatile. Overseas, the Fed restarted the interest - rate cut cycle in September, but the path of future rate cuts is uncertain [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is likely to fluctuate between 7.09 - 7.15 this week. The strong US economic data supports the US dollar index and increases the uncertainty of the Fed's future rate - cut path [4][5]. - The stock index is under pressure due to the weakening expectation of the Fed's rate cut. However, there is support from positive policies, so the downside space is limited [6]. - The bond market is expected to remain volatile. Policy support exists, and operations should focus on oversold rebounds [7]. - The shipping index (European line) futures price is generally rising, driven by the increase in quotes by MSC and the closing of short positions by some investors [8][9]. - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term. Gold is likely to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, and silver may rise further if it breaks through key levels. It is recommended to hold light positions during the National Day holiday [10][12]. - The supply - side shortage has significantly pushed up the copper price. The long - term shutdown of Freeport's Grasberg mine will impact the global copper supply chain [13]. - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly, alumina is likely to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [15][16][17]. - Zinc is expected to have its center of gravity move down slowly. It is recommended to buy in - the - money put options or sell out - of - the - money call options [18]. - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to be strong in the short - term, affected by supply concerns in the nickel ore market and the rise in cobalt prices [18][19]. - Tin is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait for opportunities for long positions [20]. - Carbonate lithium is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton before the National Day holiday [21][22]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a situation of "strong expectation, weak reality". It is recommended to be cautious when participating in polysilicon investment [23][24]. - Lead is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The short - term contradiction lies in raw materials, and it is necessary to observe the demand's acceptance of prices [26]. - Steel products face problems of high supply and insufficient demand, with pressure on de - stocking. However, there is support from raw material replenishment before the holiday. Attention should be paid to the risk of negative - feedback production cuts after the holiday [27][28]. - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate. The supply is at a medium - to - high level, and the demand is in a tight balance due to pre - holiday replenishment by steel mills [29][30]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to be affected by the "anti - involution" policy. It is not recommended to short coking coal. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the holiday and relevant policies [31][32]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have cost support, and the downside space is limited. It is recommended to try long positions at specific price levels [33][34]. - Crude oil is rebounding driven by geopolitical risks, but the upside space is limited in the absence of major geopolitical events. The long - term trend may be weak [35][36]. - LPG is expected to fluctuate weakly. The domestic supply is controllable, and the chemical demand is temporarily strong [37][38]. - PX - PTA is recommended to be cautiously bought. The polyester demand is seasonally strong but lacks sustainability, and the supply - side contradictions may be alleviated [40][41]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate between 4150 - 4300 yuan. It is recommended to wait for market drivers [44]. - Methanol is recommended to hold short - put options. The main contradiction lies in the port, and the 01 contract has limited upside potential [45][46]. - PP's downside space is limited. Attention should be paid to device changes and opportunities for long positions at low prices [48][49]. - PE is expected to fluctuate. The supply may increase, and the demand recovery is slow, but the downside space is limited due to macro - expectations and low valuations [51][52]. - Pure benzene is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, and the demand is uncertain [53]. - Styrene has more supply disturbances. The supply is expected to increase after September, and the demand is limited. It is recommended to observe and consider widening the spread between pure benzene and styrene [54]. - Fuel oil is recommended to be observed due to concerns about supply reduction from Russia. The supply is expected to increase slowly, and the demand is stable [55]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil is currently weak. The supply is abundant, and the demand is sluggish [56][57]. - Asphalt is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. The supply is increasing, the demand is affected by weather and funds, and the inventory is improving [58][59]. - Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The long - term supply is expected to remain high, and the price is restricted by high inventory [60]. - Glass is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall. The supply - side may have uncertainties, and the demand is weak in the short - term [61]. - Caustic soda's spot price is weakening. The supply is fluctuating due to maintenance, and the demand varies by region [62]. - Pulp is recommended to be bought at low prices in the futures market and to sell out - of - the - money put options in the options market [63][64]. - Logs are recommended to use the interval grid strategy and the covered put strategy [66][67]. - Propylene is expected to fluctuate. The futures market is consolidating, and the cost pressure on the demand side still exists [68][69]. - Pigs are recommended to be short - sold at high prices due to high supply [70][72]. - Oils are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to the far - month rising opportunities of palm oil and the widening of the rapeseed oil 15 - spread [73]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The US Q2 GDP growth was revised up to 3.8%, and the weekly initial jobless claims decreased. The Fed's future rate - cut path is uncertain, and the market's expectation of a rate cut in October has cooled [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar. The strong US economic data supported the US dollar index, and the RMB is expected to fluctuate between 7.09 - 7.15 this week [3][4][5]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index was under pressure due to the weakening expectation of the Fed's rate cut. The CSI 300 index rose, and the trading volume increased [5]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market was volatile. The 30 - year Treasury bond trading was crowded, and the policy was supportive. It is recommended to buy on dips with proper position control [6][7]. - **Container Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) futures prices rose. MSC raised its quotes, and the market was affected by pre - holiday capital fluctuations [8][9]. Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices showed different trends. Silver, platinum, and palladium rose strongly. It is recommended to hold light positions during the National Day holiday [10]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose significantly due to the supply - side shortage caused by the accident at Freeport's Grasberg mine [13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly, alumina is likely to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [15][16][17]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is expected to have its center of gravity move down slowly. It is recommended to buy in - the - money put options or sell out - of - the money call options [18]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel and stainless steel are expected to be strong in the short - term, affected by supply concerns in the nickel ore market and the rise in cobalt prices [18][19]. - **Tin**: Tin is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait for opportunities for long positions [20]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton before the National Day holiday [21][22]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a situation of "strong expectation, weak reality". It is recommended to be cautious when participating in polysilicon investment [23][24]. - **Lead**: Lead is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The short - term contradiction lies in raw materials, and it is necessary to observe the demand's acceptance of prices [26]. Black Commodities - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel products face problems of high supply and insufficient demand, with pressure on de - stocking. However, there is support from raw material replenishment before the holiday. Attention should be paid to the risk of negative - feedback production cuts after the holiday [27][28]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore is expected to fluctuate. The supply is at a medium - to - high level, and the demand is in a tight balance due to pre - holiday replenishment by steel mills [29][30]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal and coke are expected to be affected by the "anti - involution" policy. It is not recommended to short coking coal. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the holiday and relevant policies [31][32]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have cost support, and the downside space is limited. It is recommended to try long positions at specific price levels [33][34]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil is rebounding driven by geopolitical risks, but the upside space is limited in the absence of major geopolitical events. The long - term trend may be weak [35][36]. - **LPG**: LPG is expected to fluctuate weakly. The domestic supply is controllable, and the chemical demand is temporarily strong [37][38]. - **PTA - PX**: PX - PTA is recommended to be cautiously bought. The polyester demand is seasonally strong but lacks sustainability, and the supply - side contradictions may be alleviated [40][41]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate between 4150 - 4300 yuan. It is recommended to wait for market drivers [44]. - **Methanol**: Methanol is recommended to hold short - put options. The main contradiction lies in the port, and the 01 contract has limited upside potential [45][46]. - **PP**: PP's downside space is limited. Attention should be paid to device changes and opportunities for long positions at low prices [48][49]. - **PE**: PE is expected to fluctuate. The supply may increase, and the demand recovery is slow, but the downside space is limited due to macro - expectations and low valuations [51][52]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Pure benzene is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, and the demand is uncertain. Styrene has more supply disturbances. The supply is expected to increase after September, and the demand is limited. It is recommended to observe and consider widening the spread between pure benzene and styrene [53][54]. - **Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil is recommended to be observed due to concerns about supply reduction from Russia. The supply is expected to increase slowly, and the demand is stable [55]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is currently weak. The supply is abundant, and the demand is sluggish [56][57]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. The supply is increasing, the demand is affected by weather and funds, and the inventory is improving [58][59]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The long - term supply is expected to remain high, and the price is restricted by high inventory [60]. - **Glass**: Glass is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall. The supply - side may have uncertainties, and the demand is weak in the short - term [61]. - **Caustic Soda**: Caustic soda's spot price is weakening. The supply is fluctuating due to maintenance, and the demand varies by region [62]. Others - **Pulp**: Pulp is recommended to be bought at low prices in the futures market and to sell out - of - the - money put options in the options market [63][64]. - **Logs**: Logs are recommended to use the interval grid strategy and the covered put strategy [66][67]. - **Propylene**: Propylene is expected to fluctuate. The futures market is consolidating, and the cost pressure on the demand side still exists [68][69]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: Pigs are recommended to be short - sold at high prices due to high supply [70][72]. - **Oils**: Oils are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to the far - month rising opportunities of palm oil and the widening of the rapeseed oil 15 - spread [73].