Core Viewpoint - Recent international gold prices have shown a significant rebound, breaking through key resistance levels and reflecting strong performance driven by geopolitical tensions, adjustments in U.S. tariff policies, and Federal Reserve monetary policy statements [1] Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policy Adjustments - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled on February 20 that the large-scale tariff policy implemented by the Trump administration was illegal, leading to the cessation of these tariffs starting February 24, 2026 [2] - In response, Trump announced an executive order to impose an additional 10% tariff on all goods imported into the U.S. for 150 days, later increasing it to 15%, maintaining existing tariffs amid rising trade policy uncertainty [2] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - The ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have become a key variable affecting gold prices, with recent talks showing mixed progress and leading to fluctuations in market sentiment [2] - Following a significant drop in gold prices below $4,900 per ounce, renewed tensions and military deployments by the U.S. in the Middle East have driven gold prices back above $5,000 per ounce, with further escalation possible depending on the outcome of negotiations [2] Group 3: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy - Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials have been hawkish, indicating that interest rates may remain unchanged for an extended period due to improving labor market data and persistent inflation risks [3] - The Fed's stance has supported a rebound in the U.S. dollar, indirectly influencing precious metal prices [3] Group 4: Market Impact and Future Focus - Gold and silver have recently strengthened due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs and risks of U.S. military action against Iran, recovering approximately half and one-third of their declines from late January, respectively [4] - The market is expected to maintain a volatile but less intense trading range, with ongoing geopolitical tensions providing long-term support for precious metals [4] - Future attention should be on the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations, as a successful agreement could lead to a sudden market shift, while failure could push gold prices towards historical highs [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report doesn't provide a clear industry investment rating [1][2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of coke is directly affected by upstream coking coal costs, downstream steel demand, and macro - policy orientation. The comprehensive inventory of coking coal and coke continues to rise and is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. With the end of pre - holiday restocking by downstream steel mills and approaching the Spring Festival holiday, there is an expectation of reduced supply. Coking is in continuous loss, and coking enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices. There are still policy expectations at the macro level. Overall, coke will mainly fluctuate widely, continue to rebound in the short term, and a low - buying strategy can be adopted, while paying attention to the pressure near the previous high [2] Group 3: Summary of Related Content 1. Coke Inventory - As of January 30, the comprehensive coke inventory increased by 13.3 tons to 1012.35 tons, reaching a 7 - and - a - half - month high with a year - on - year decline of 3.44% [1] 2. Profit - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 55 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shandong quasi - first - grade coke turned positive to 2 yuan/ton, that of Hebei quasi - first - grade coke is 0 yuan/ton, that of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke is - 41 yuan/ton, and that of Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is - 92 yuan/ton [1] 3. Downstream Demand - This week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased by 0.32% to 79% week - on - week and 1.02% year - on - year. The profitability rate decreased by 1.3% to 39.39% week - on - week. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate slightly dropped to 85.47%, and the daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.12 tons to 227.98 tons week - on - week [1] 4. Upstream Coking Coal - As the Spring Festival approaches, there is an expectation of reduced supply. The coking coal inventory of mines decreased by 7.2 tons to 267.2 tons; the comprehensive coking coal inventory increased by 46 tons to 2864.34 tons week - on - week, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 8.57% [1] 5. News - Due to the Indonesian government's proposed large - scale production cut plan, Indonesian miners have suspended spot coal exports. According to the China Iron and Steel Association, the steel inventory of key enterprises in late January was 1471 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.8% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic steel market in January 2026 exhibited a fluctuating trend characterized by an initial rise followed by a decline, influenced by macro policy expectations, seasonal demand effects, and weak market transactions [10][11]. January Market Review - The overall steel price in January showed a pattern of "initial bottoming and recovery, followed by high-level decline, and a low-level rebound before another drop," with a core operating range of 3085-3198 yuan/ton [11]. - The first phase (January 5-7) saw a weak bottoming trend due to seasonal demand shrinkage and cautious winter storage intentions from traders, leading to a weak supply-demand dynamic [11]. - The second phase (January 8-21) experienced high-level fluctuations with no clear trend, as the market faced increasing supply-demand contradictions and inventory accumulation [12]. - The third phase (January 22-30) marked a low-level rebound driven by strengthening cost support and marginal improvements in market sentiment, although the overall weak supply-demand situation persisted [13]. February Steel Price Outlook - February is expected to be influenced by traditional holiday effects, with positive expectations for policy benefits from the March meetings providing support for the steel market [14]. - The central bank's announcement of a comprehensive monetary policy package, including potential rate cuts, lays a foundation for macro expectations, although immediate impacts on February are limited [14]. - The industry anticipates increased inventory pressure in February, with a significant reduction in demand before the holiday, which may suppress steel prices [14]. - Overall, February is projected to see a limited increase in prices, with expectations of a narrow fluctuation before the holiday and potential price increases afterward [14]. Operational Recommendations - Steel prices should be approached cautiously, with opportunities for minor replenishment only when prices return to undervalued zones, while profits can be gradually realized [15].

Group 1 - The core driving force behind the recent surge in gold prices is the escalation of geopolitical risks and macroeconomic policy expectations, particularly the ongoing US-Iran conflict which has heightened market demand for safe-haven assets like gold [2] - Gold prices have seen a remarkable increase, with a rise of over $500 in just four days, marking a 10% increase from just below $5000 to above $5600 [2][3] - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets have reacted positively to the booming precious metals market, with multiple gold-related stocks experiencing significant gains, including China Gold and Sichuan Gold, which have seen consecutive trading limits [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to maintain interest rates in the 3.5-3.75% range has further fueled the gold bull market, with indications that there may be a potential for rate cuts if inflation trends downward [3] - Various exchanges and banks are implementing risk control measures in response to the rising volatility in the precious metals market, including adjustments to margin requirements and trading limits for silver and other precious metals [5][6] - Major banks, including Agricultural Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, have raised the entry thresholds for retail gold accounts and personal accumulation gold products, reflecting a cautious approach to managing investment risks [6]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have continued to rise, reaching historical highs despite signs of easing geopolitical tensions, indicating a shift in the underlying logic driving gold prices [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Traditionally, geopolitical tensions increase gold's safe-haven demand, while easing tensions typically exert downward pressure; however, gold prices remain strong even as risks diminish [1] - The recent weakness of the US dollar has provided crucial support for gold priced in dollars, despite a slight rebound from its lows [1] - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy are key variables influencing both the dollar and gold [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent data shows the US economy maintains some resilience, with a slight upward revision in Q3 GDP growth and a moderate rise in core inflation indicators [1] - Despite this, market participants seem more focused on the expectation that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged for the foreseeable future, shifting policy emphasis towards supporting economic growth [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold prices have broken through the upper boundary of an upward channel formed since October of the previous year, signaling enhanced upward momentum [2] - Momentum indicators are currently in a strong zone, although another widely watched momentum indicator shows that prices have entered an overbought territory, which may lead to increased short-term volatility or a consolidation phase [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - Attention is shifting towards the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting, where any information regarding economic assessments and policy outlook could impact market expectations and asset prices [4] - The current gold market reflects a combination of macroeconomic expectations and technical high-level consolidation, with the potential for price adjustments as the market digests recent gains [4] - Future price performance is expected to depend on the ongoing interplay between macroeconomic data and signals from major central banks [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term, the contradiction of coking coal surplus intensifies, and the winter storage replenishment is more than half completed. The short - term futures market may be adjusted due to surplus intensification, insufficient winter storage drive, and weakening macro - sentiment. However, during the Spring Festival, mine closures and the gradual resumption of hot metal production are expected to improve the supply - demand contradiction of coking coal and coke, and the adjustment space of the futures market is limited. In the long - term, if there is a combination of "domestic supply recovery exceeding expectations" and "weakening macro - sentiment", the medium - and long - term prices of coking coal and coke will face greater downward pressure [2]. - It is expected that coking coal and coke will maintain a range - bound operation in the short term. Investors can consider constructing a short strangle option portfolio strategy [3]. - The "14th Five - Year Plan" macro - policy expectations and the "anti - deflation" policy in the opening year will provide bottom support for far - month contracts. The opening of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and global liquidity easing are beneficial to the overall valuation of commodities [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply side: Domestic mine production of coking coal is increasing steadily. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at ports is at a high level year - on - year. Australian coal supply is tight, and the export price is firm. The arrival of coking coal at ports has declined from a high level [2]. - Demand side: Coking enterprises have started a round of price increases, but steel mills are resistant. Recently, the spot price of coking coal has rebounded significantly, the immediate coking profit has shrunk, and the operating rate of coking enterprises has decreased slightly. The maintenance volume of blast furnaces in steel mills has increased, and the hot metal production has decreased slightly, resulting in an intensified coking coal surplus. However, the profitability rate of steel mills has continued to recover, and the decline space of hot metal is limited. It is expected that production will resume steadily at the end of January, and the demand for coking coal and coke is expected to improve [2]. 3.1.2 Strategy Recommendations - Construct a short strangle option portfolio strategy for short - term coking coal and coke investment [3]. 3.1.3 Trading Logic - Near - term: The downstream has started winter storage, and the spot price of coking coal has certain support. The hot metal production has basically bottomed out, and the expectation of steel mill复产 is strong, so the demand for coking coal and coke is expected to stabilize [7]. - Long - term: The macro - policy in the "14th Five - Year Plan" opening year and the "anti - deflation" policy will support far - month contracts. The Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and global liquidity easing are positive for commodity valuations [9]. 3.1.4 Market Positioning - Trend judgment: Oscillatory operation. - Price range: JM2605 operates in the range of 1120 - 1250; J2605 operates in the range of 1650 - 1800 [10]. 3.1.5 Basic Data Overview - Coking coal supply: The operating rate and daily output of 523 mining enterprises and 314 coal washing plants have increased [13]. - Coking coal inventory: The inventory of 523 mining enterprises, 314 coal washing plants, independent coking enterprises, and 247 steel mills has increased, while the port inventory has decreased slightly [13]. - Coking supply: The production capacity utilization rate and daily output of independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills have decreased slightly [15]. - Coking inventory: The inventory of independent coking enterprises has decreased, while the inventory of 247 steel mills and ports has increased [15]. - Coking coal and coke futures prices: The month - to - month spreads and basis of coking coal and coke have different changes [16]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: The central bank has introduced a series of policies to support high - quality economic development. The individual income tax refund policy for home purchases has been extended. The government has promoted fiscal - financial cooperation to boost domestic demand. The supply and consumption of five major steel products have increased, and the inventory has decreased. The prices of some coking coal varieties have risen. The supply of Australian coking coal is tight, and the price has risen. Coking enterprises have started the first round of price increases [23][24][25]. - Negative information: The inventory of imported iron ore at ports has increased, the customs clearance pressure of coking coal is high, and there is a rumor of increased customs clearance at the Ganqimao Port [25]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Attention Events - Monday: Pay attention to China's GDP growth rate and total GDP in 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of large - scale industries in December 2025, and the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in December 2025. - Tuesday: Pay attention to China's one - year loan prime rate as of January 20. - Thursday: Pay attention to the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending January 10 and the annual rate of the core PCE price index in the US in November [26]. 3.3 Futures Market Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: The main contract of coking coal rebounded to around 1250 and then fell back. The subsequent support levels are 1120 - 1130. The trend of coke follows that of coking coal, and the support level for the 05 contract is 1640 - 1650 [27]. - Month - to - month spread structure: The 5 - 9 spreads of coking coal and coke changed little this week, showing a low - level oscillation. Attention can be paid to the 5 - 9 inter - month reverse arbitrage of coking coal, with the recommended entry range of (- 40, - 50) [31]. - Basis structure: This week, the main futures market of coking coal and coke oscillated and declined, the spot price of coking coal increased, and coke started the first round of price increases, so the 05 basis strengthened [34]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - Coking coal mines' theoretical profit has expanded due to the increase in coking coal spot prices. The immediate coking profit has shrunk because of the increase in coking coal prices for coke production. The profitability of downstream steel mills is expected to shrink with the price increase of coke [38]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - The long - term agreement price of Mongolian coking coal in the first quarter has rebounded by about $7. The port customs clearance enthusiasm is high, and the inventory pressure in the supervision area is large. The coal shipping volume has decreased this week, and the price difference between Australian coal and domestic coal has continued to expand. The subsequent arrival pressure of coking coal is expected to ease [41][46]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Coking Coal Supply - Side Deduction - In January, coking coal supply is expected to increase, with an estimated average weekly production of about 9.5 million tons. The average weekly import volume of coking coal in January is revised up to about 2.55 million tons. The theoretical hot - metal balance point of coking coal in January is estimated to be 238,000 tons per day [63]. 3.5.2 Coke Supply - Side Deduction - The four - round price cut of coke has been fully implemented, and the fifth - round price cut is still under negotiation. The immediate coking profit is under pressure, and the production enthusiasm of coking enterprises is average. The average weekly production of coke in January is expected to be about 7.7 million tons. The net export volume of coke is linearly extrapolated, with an estimated average weekly export volume of 150,000 tons in January. The theoretical hot - metal balance point of coke in January is estimated to be 233,000 tons per day [66]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side Deduction - The hot - metal production is expected to stabilize and rebound after a short - term decline. The average daily hot - metal production in January is estimated to be 227,000 tons per day. The average theoretical hot - metal surplus of coking coal in January is about 11,000 tons per day, and that of coke is about 6,000 tons per day [69]. 3.5.4 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The supply - demand balance sheets of coking coal and coke from Week 45 in 2025 to Week 57 in 2026 are estimated, including production, import, total supply, supply converted to theoretical hot metal, actual hot metal, inventory, and the difference between theoretical and actual hot metal [71].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Reports Lithium - The lithium market has shown price increases across various lithium products. The futures market experienced wide - range fluctuations, with the main contract LC2605 falling 3.53% to 161,940. In the short - term, the market is expected to have wide - range oscillations in the 155,000 - 165,000 range. Attention should be paid to positive spread opportunities between months, and unilateral trading is advised to be on hold for the time being [1]. Nickel - The nickel price is expected to strengthen in the short - term, with the main contract's central reference in the 140,000 - 155,000 range. The trading is mainly influenced by macro factors and the rhythm of Indonesia's nickel ore RKAB quota, and the current tightening expectation of the ore end is dominant [3]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is expected to have a relatively strong oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 13,800 - 14,500 yuan/ton. The market is influenced by strong cost support from the raw material end and weak demand, and future trends depend on raw material news and downstream inventory - building [6]. Tin - The tin price is affected by market sentiment and shows significant short - term fluctuations. It is recommended to be cautious in futures operations and consider using options for participation [8]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina prices are expected to have wide - range oscillations around the industry's cash cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2,600 - 2,950 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is likely to maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation, with the main contract operating range of 23,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The cast aluminum alloy market is expected to have high - level range oscillations, with the main contract reference range of 22,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to raw material supply stability, downstream pre - holiday inventory - building, and the impact of high prices on demand [11]. Copper - The medium - and long - term fundamentals of copper are still good. In the short - term, the price trend is strong, mainly due to the risk of global inventory structural imbalance and the risk premium of metal supply concerns. The price is expected to remain strong in the short - term, with core attention on CL premium changes and LME inventory changes, and support at 99,000 - 100,000 [12]. Zinc - The zinc price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with support at around 24,000. Attention should be paid to zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes [15]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation, with the main price fluctuation range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to demand - side production changes [18]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon price is expected to have support at the 48,000 yuan/ton level. In the cooling cycle, it is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to future production cuts and downstream demand recovery [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose to 163,000 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.19%. Other lithium products also showed price increases, and the basis of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate changed significantly [1]. Fundamental Data - In December, lithium carbonate production increased, while demand decreased. The inventory of lithium carbonate decreased overall, with a significant reduction in smelter inventory [1]. Nickel Price and Basis - The prices of various nickel products increased, and the import profit and loss of nickel futures and the LME 0 - 3 spread changed. The cost of producing electrolytic nickel from different raw materials also had corresponding changes [3]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production decreased, while imports increased. The inventory of SHFE and social inventory increased, while LME inventory decreased slightly [3]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The spot price of stainless steel was relatively stable, and the futures - spot price difference decreased. The prices of raw materials such as nickel ore and high - nickel pig iron increased slightly [6]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel production decreased, while exports increased. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel decreased [6]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The spot price of tin increased significantly, and the LME 0 - 3 spread also increased [8]. Fundamental Data - In November, tin ore imports increased, and in December, the production of refined tin was basically stable. The import and export volumes of refined tin increased, and the inventory decreased [8]. Aluminum and Alumina Price and Spread - The price of aluminum increased, and the price of alumina decreased slightly. The import profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum and alumina changed, and the monthly spread of aluminum also had corresponding adjustments [9]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of alumina decreased, while the production of electrolytic aluminum increased. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the inventory of alumina also increased [9]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased, and the refined - scrap price difference of various aluminum alloys also increased [11]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and the operating rates of recycled and primary aluminum alloy enterprises decreased. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy decreased slightly [11]. Copper Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased, and the refined - scrap price difference increased significantly. The import profit and loss and monthly spread of copper also changed [12]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of electrolytic copper increased, while imports decreased. The inventory of various copper products increased [12]. Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased, and the import profit and loss and monthly spread of zinc changed [15]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of refined zinc decreased, and exports increased significantly. The operating rates of downstream zinc - related industries were mixed, and the inventory increased [15]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Basis - The spot price of industrial silicon was stable, and the basis decreased. The monthly spread of the futures contract also changed [18]. Fundamental Data - The national production of industrial silicon decreased, and the production in different regions had different trends. The production of downstream products such as organic silicon and polysilicon also changed, and the inventory decreased slightly [18]. Polysilicon Spot Price, Futures Price, and Spread - The polysilicon spot price was stable, the futures price was weakly oscillating, and the monthly spread of the futures contract changed [19]. Fundamental Data - The weekly production of polysilicon decreased slightly, and the monthly production increased slightly. The import and export volumes of polysilicon and silicon wafers changed, and the inventory of polysilicon decreased slightly while the silicon wafer inventory increased [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - Fed's easing cycle starts, but short - term rate - cut probability is low. Domestic macro narrative is positive, with rising expectations for incremental monetary policy, and industrial chain fundamentals improve. Short - term iron ore supply - demand contradiction needs to accumulate. Iron ore restocking demand supports spot prices, and supply enters the off - season. However, price increase is limited by the industrial chain profit, and the restocking demand drive has entered the realization period. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. The short - term price has risen too much, the basis has shrunk significantly, and the upward space of finished product prices is limited. It is not recommended to chase high. The recommended strategy is interval operation and covered call options [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic - Domestic monetary and fiscal policies are in the active reserve period, and the market has high expectations for incremental policies in the Two Sessions (starting on March 4). On January 6, the central bank emphasized using various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement cuts and interest rate cuts. In December, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, returning to the expansion range for the first time since April, with policy pre - setting guiding the marginal improvement of corporate sentiment and policy expectations [1] Supply - Current overseas ore shipments enter the off - season. Weekly shipments have declined for two consecutive weeks. According to seasonal patterns, before mid - February, overseas ore shipments will continue to decline month - on - month but be higher than last year due to the low base caused by the hurricane in Australia last year. Domestic ore supply is also in the off - season. As of January 12, Mysteel's total global iron ore shipments were 31.809 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 328,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.653 million tons. The total shipments of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 25.332 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.333 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.457 million tons [1] Demand - Domestic demand has rebounded for three consecutive weeks and is at the highest level in the same period of the past five years. Steel mill profitability has stabilized after the decline in carbon element prices, and steel inventory has not shown excessive seasonal accumulation. Domestic steel mill demand is expected to continue to rise in the short term, and the pre - festival restocking cycle has gradually started, with restocking demand expected to continue to be released [1] Inventory - Steel mill imports inventory has risen for three consecutive weeks, with the pre - Spring Festival seasonal restocking cycle starting, but the inventory is still at the lowest level in the same period of the past five years. Later restocking demand will support the spot price. Port inventory continues to accumulate due to relatively high arrivals. It is expected that the pressure on port inventory accumulation will ease with the decline in arrivals and the increase in restocking demand [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inventory structure of coking coal has improved compared to the previous period, with the end of the year - end surge in Mongolian coal imports and a possible decline in seaborne coal arrivals. The price rebound of coking coal depends on the resumption of production of domestic mines in the new year. If the resumption is less than expected, winter storage replenishment may drive the price up; otherwise, there will be significant pressure on the price rebound [2]. - After the fourth round of price cuts for coke, the immediate coking profit has declined marginally. The coking plants lack the enthusiasm to increase production. If the iron - making production recovers quickly, the supply - demand structure of coke is expected to improve, and the fifth round of price cuts may face significant resistance [2]. - The trend of coking coal and coke is expected to be in a volatile consolidation phase. The operating range of JM2605 is predicted to be between 1000 - 1150, and that of J2605 is between 1600 - 1760 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Coking coal: The end - of - year surge in Mongolian coal imports is over, but the inventory pressure in the port supervision area is still high. The Australian coal price index is stable with a slight increase, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets is severely inverted, narrowing the import window for seaborne coal. The subsequent arrivals of coking coal may decline. The key is to focus on the resumption of production of domestic mines in the new year [2]. - Coke: After the fourth round of price cuts, the immediate coking profit is under short - term pressure, and coking plants lack the motivation to increase production. Attention should be paid to the recovery elasticity of downstream steel mills [2]. 3.1.2 Market Positioning - Trend judgment: Volatile consolidation [10]. - Price range: JM2605 is expected to operate between 1000 - 1150; J2605 between 1600 - 1760 [10]. 3.1.3 Basic Data Overview - Coking coal supply: The operating rates of 523 mining enterprises and 314 coal - washing plants have declined, and the daily average output of raw coal and clean coal has decreased [10]. - Coking coal inventory: The total inventory of the coking coal sample has increased, with an increase in the inventory of independent coking plants and port - imported coking coal, and a decrease in the inventory of 247 steel mills [13]. - Coke supply: The operating rates and daily average output of independent coking plants and 247 steel mills have changed slightly [13]. - Coke inventory: The total inventory of the coke sample has increased, with a decrease in the inventory of independent coking plants and an increase in the inventory of 247 steel mills and port coke [13]. - Coal - coke futures prices: The spreads between different contracts of coking coal and coke have changed, and the spot prices of coking coal have not stopped falling. The fourth round of price cuts for coke has been fully implemented [14]. - Black warehouse receipt quantity: The warehouse receipt quantities of coking coal and coke have changed [15]. - Warehouse receipt cost and basis: The cost of coking coal and coke warehouse receipts varies, and the basis has also changed [16][20]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Some coking enterprises in Shandong and Jiangsu plan to raise the benchmark price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke by 20 - 30 yuan/ton, and some steel mills have accepted the price increase [21]. - Bearish information: Not provided in the document. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Monitor a series of economic data from the United States, such as the ISM manufacturing PMI in December, the final value of the S&P Global services PMI in December, ADP employment figures in December, initial jobless claims for the week ending January 3rd, and non - farm payrolls in December [25]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: The main contract of coking coal is supported around 1000 points. If there is no new driving force, the 05 contract of coking coal is expected to fluctuate between 1000 - 1150. The trend of coke still follows that of coking coal, and the 05 contract of coke is expected to fluctuate between 1600 - 1760 [26]. - Spread structure: The long - short spread of coking coal from January to May has strengthened, and the spread of coke from January to May has fluctuated at a low level. Attention can be paid to the reverse spread of coking coal from May to September, with an advisable entry interval of (- 40, - 50) [29]. - Basis structure: The main contract of coking coal has mainly fluctuated, and the spot prices of some coal types in Shanxi have been lowered. The 05 basis has continued to shrink, and the current basis of coking coal is neutral. The 05 basis of coke has shrunk. If the coke disk continues to rebound and is at a premium to the spot warehouse receipt, industrial customers with open positions are advised to sell for hedging [32]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Tracking of Upstream and Downstream Profits in the Industrial Chain - The theoretical profits of coking coal mines have shrunk, the immediate coking profits are under pressure, and the profitability of downstream steel mills has improved, showing that upstream mines and coking plants are transferring profits to downstream steel mills [46]. 3.4.2 Tracking of Import - Export Profits - The year - end surge in Mongolian coal imports is over, and the customs clearance pressure is expected to ease. The long - term contract price at the Mongolian coal pithead has increased by about 7 US dollars in the first quarter, and the estimated minimum cost of the long - term contract warehouse receipt is about 900 yuan/ton [51]. - The FOB quotes of Australian coal are firm, and the CFR prices in China remain unchanged, indicating strong overseas demand for coking coal. The theoretical import profit of domestic port seaborne coal has expanded, and the coal shipping volume has decreased week - on - week [55]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Deduction of the Coking Coal Supply Side - Considering the "good start" of mines in January, the supply of coking coal is expected to increase. It is currently estimated that the average weekly production of domestic coking coal in January will be about 923 - 925 million tons. In terms of imports, the average weekly import volume of coking coal may drop to about 250 million tons in January. Overall, the theoretical iron - making balance point of coking coal in January is expected to be 230 - 231 million tons per day [69]. 3.5.2 Deduction of the Coke Supply Side - After the full implementation of the fourth round of price cuts, it is rumored that the fifth round may start on the 10th. In the short term, the production enthusiasm of coking plants is average, and the coke output changes little. It is estimated that the average weekly production of coke in January will be 766 million tons. The net export volume of coke is linearly extrapolated, and it is estimated that the average weekly export volume of coke in January will be 15 million tons. Overall, the theoretical iron - making balance point of coke in January is expected to be 231 - 232 million tons per day [72]. 3.5.3 Deduction of the Demand Side - According to SMM's maintenance data, the iron - making output is expected to stabilize in the short term, and some steel mills have plans to resume production in January. The demand for coking coal and coke is expected to improve marginally. It is estimated that the average daily iron - making output per week in January will be 230 - 231 million tons [76]. 3.5.4 Deduction of the Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheets of coking coal and coke are presented, including production, net imports, total supply, supply - converted theoretical iron - making output, actual iron - making output, obvious inventory, and inventory changes [79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, Shanghai Aluminum is expected to maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern, while in the long - term, it is in an upward channel. Alumina is still in a supply - surplus situation, and the recent price increase is mainly due to emotional stimulation. Cast aluminum alloy shows a pattern of strong cost support but slow - growing demand [1][9][17]. - The core factors affecting aluminum prices are macro - policy expectations and fundamentals. Overseas macro mainly focuses on the Fed's monetary policy, and the rise and fall of interest - rate cut expectations dominate the financial - attribute pricing of the non - ferrous sector. The domestic fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are relatively stable, with external demand stronger than domestic demand [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - **Core Contradictions**: The core factors affecting aluminum prices are macro - policy expectations and fundamentals. Overseas, the focus is on the Fed's monetary policy, and the outcome of China - US tariff negotiations is in line with expectations. Domestically, the fundamentals are stable with external demand stronger than domestic demand. In the short - term, Shanghai Aluminum is affected by related varieties, and there is a short - term inventory accumulation. In the long - term, macro factors will drive the upward movement of aluminum prices, and the supply - demand balance of global electrolytic aluminum in 2026 will be tight or in short supply [1][7][9]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: The trend is expected to be high - level oscillation. For the monthly spread strategy, it is recommended to wait and see. When the spread between Shanghai Aluminum and aluminum alloy is too large, one can go long on aluminum alloy and short on Shanghai Aluminum for arbitrage. The recent strategies include interval operations, selling options, etc. [10]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Core Contradictions**: The supply of bauxite is sufficient, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. Alumina still has a supply - surplus problem, but the market interprets the NDRC's news as a control on alumina growth, which is mainly an emotional stimulus. In the short - term, the impact on fundamentals is limited. In the long - term, the supply - surplus pattern is difficult to change, but the price decline rate will slow down [12][17][19]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: The trend is expected to be weakly running. The price range is 2750 - 3050. It is recommended to sell the Alumina 2601 Call Option at 2900. For the basis and monthly spread strategies, it is recommended to wait and see, and there is no recommended hedging and arbitrage strategy [27]. 3.1.3 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Core Contradictions**: The core contradiction lies in the weak demand and high costs. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the downstream is in a mild recovery with general peak - season performance and downward pressure. In the long - term, the cost support is strong, but the demand growth rate slows down [25][30]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: The trend is expected to be oscillating and upward - trending. The price range is 19900 - 20800. When the spread between Shanghai Aluminum and aluminum alloy is greater than 500, one can go long on aluminum alloy and short on Shanghai Aluminum for arbitrage [31]. 3.1.4 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Provide price - range forecasts for alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy in the near future, as well as risk - management strategy recommendations, including inventory management and raw - material management strategies [32]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: On December 11, the social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased by 44,000 tons to 741,500 tons compared with the previous week. The US GDP in the third quarter of this year increased by 4.3% year - on - year, higher than the second - quarter growth rate of 3.8% and the market expectation of 3.2% [33]. - **Negative Information**: No information provided. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Overseas, on December 23, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded at a price of $335/mt FOB Brazil for February shipment. Domestically, there were transactions in the north and south markets, with different prices and quantities [34][36]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - On December 31, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending December 27 will be released [37]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Shanghai Aluminum was driven by related varieties and trended upward. The relationship between the main - contract position and price indicates that the market is mainly controlled by long - position forces. The positions of key seats and the total position show opposite trends, indicating that key seats take profits at high prices. The basis - monthly spread structure maintains a shallow C - shaped structure [38][41]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals remained unchanged this week, but the price rebounded sharply on Friday due to the NDRC's news. Long - position investors entered the market, the position increased significantly, and the net short - position decreased. The term structure is stable, but there is an obvious spread between the 2602 and 2603 contracts [54][58]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It moved with Shanghai Aluminum this week, but the position of the main contract decreased, and the positions of important seats remained oscillating. The term structure is stable, maintaining a shallow C - shaped structure [62][65]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - **Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain's Upstream and Downstream**: The supply - surplus situation of alumina persists, the spot price continues to decline, and the profit is compressed. The profit of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level [67]. - **Import - Export Profit Tracking**: The alumina import window remains open, while the import and export windows for electrolytic aluminum are closed, with only long - term Russian aluminum contracts flowing in, averaging about 200,000 tons per month [70][72]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction - **Supply - Demand Balance Deduction**: Provide quarterly balance sheets for electrolytic aluminum and monthly balance sheets for alumina, showing the supply - demand balance in different periods [74]. - **Supply - Side and Deduction**: The profit of electrolytic aluminum is high, and the domestic production capacity is approaching the ceiling, with little change in supply. Overseas, the supply increase is concentrated in Southeast Asia, mainly in 2026. Alumina prices are under pressure, and some high - cost enterprises may reduce production, which is expected to alleviate the surplus situation to some extent [75][76]. - **Demand - Side and Deduction**: The new - energy sector is the main driving force for the growth of China's electrolytic aluminum demand, but the growth rate is expected to slow down. The demand for aluminum in the construction sector is expected to decline negatively, and the overall consumption growth rate of electrolytic aluminum is expected to slow down but remain above 0.5% for a long time. Alumina demand is mainly for electrolytic - aluminum smelting, and the demand is estimated based on seasonality [78].