Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing upward momentum, supported by expectations of monetary policy easing and safe-haven demand due to potential U.S. government shutdown risks. Group 1: Silver Price Movements - As of September 29, the spot silver price is trading at $46.92 per ounce, with a daily high of $47.17 and a low of $45.92 [1] - The silver price opened at $46.07 per ounce today [1] - The latest prices for various silver products include: - Silver T+D at 10,878 yuan per kilogram - Paper silver at 10.741 yuan per gram - Shanghai silver futures at 10,939 yuan per kilogram [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. core PCE price index for August shows a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, consistent with the previous value, while the month-on-month increase is 0.2% [3] - The overall PCE price index rose by 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, up from 2.6% previously [3] - The U.S. consumer confidence index for September is reported at 55.1, a decline of approximately 5% from August [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Expectations - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in October is 10.7%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 89.3% [3] - For December, the probability of maintaining rates is 2.9%, with cumulative probabilities for rate cuts of 25 basis points at 32.2% and 50 basis points at 64.9% [3] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Strategies - The silver market is supported by safe-haven demand as traders prepare for potential U.S. government shutdown risks [3] - Short-term trading strategies suggest maintaining a bullish stance on silver, with key support levels at $45.50 and $45.00, and resistance levels at $47.00 and $48.00 [5]

Group 1 - The market is expected to see a decrease in trading volume and an increase in selling pressure as investors prepare for the upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with daily trading volume likely to fall below 2 trillion yuan [1] - The decision to hold stocks or cash during the holiday period depends on the market's position; if the market has undergone sufficient adjustments before the holiday, the likelihood of a post-holiday rise increases, whereas a high market position may lead to lower expectations for post-holiday performance [1][2] - Current public and private fund positions are heavily invested, indicating a waiting game for new buyers; historically, when funds are fully invested, market corrections are more likely, suggesting caution despite a low probability of market peaks at this time [4] Group 2 - The market is currently at a relatively high level, and a period of technical profit-taking is needed rather than an end to the market rally; once this profit-taking occurs, a new upward trend may begin [5]