1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The expectation of the US government reopening and the easing of trade tensions boost market sentiment. The copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, aluminum may further rise, casting aluminum alloy prices will follow aluminum prices, lead and zinc will run strongly in the short - term but with limited upside, tin will be in a tight - balance state and prices are expected to be strong, nickel should be observed in the short - term, and stainless steel will maintain a weak trend [2][3][6][10][13][15][17][20][30]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The US government's expected reopening and policy easing expectations pushed up precious metals, but the sharp drop in crude oil prices caused copper prices to fall back after rising. LME copper 3M contract rose 0.53% to $10,897/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 87,410 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory remained flat, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts increased. Spot premiums and discounts varied in different regions, and the import loss of domestic copper was about 700 yuan/ton [2]. - **Strategy View**: The expectation of the US government reopening and the easing of trade tensions boost market sentiment. Although some copper mines have resumed production, the supply of copper mines remains tight, and refined copper supply is expected to tighten marginally, providing strong support for copper prices. Short - term copper prices may continue to fluctuate strongly. The operating range of SHFE copper main contract is 86,500 - 88,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is 10,820 - 11,000 dollars/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices continued to be strong but fell back after rising due to the sharp drop in crude oil prices. LME aluminum rose 0.23% to $2,886/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,950 yuan/ton. SHFE weighted contract positions increased significantly, and domestic inventories changed slightly. The processing fee of aluminum rods fluctuated and declined, and the market receiving atmosphere was average [5]. - **Strategy View**: Overseas aluminum plant shutdowns or production cuts have raised supply concerns, and domestic inventories are still low. Against the background of the expected easing of global trade tensions and the implementation of the Fed's interest rate cut, supply - side disturbances and the improvement of domestic export expectations may push aluminum prices higher. Pay attention to the support of domestic inventories for prices. The operating range of SHFE aluminum main contract is 21,820 - 22,200 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is 2,840 - 2,910 dollars/ton [6]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices strengthened, with the main AD2601 contract rising 0.97% to 21,245 yuan/ton. Positions increased, and the volume of transactions expanded. The price difference between AL2601 and AD2601 contracts widened slightly. The average price of domestic mainstream ADC12 increased, and the inventory of domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased [9]. - **Strategy View**: The cost - side price of cast aluminum alloy has strong support, while the demand - side performance is relatively average. Short - term prices are expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices [10]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the SHFE lead index rose 1.26% to 17,664 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading positions were 127,400 lots. LME lead 3S rose to $2,072.5/ton. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,325 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton. SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 24,700 tons, and LME lead ingot inventory was 226,700 tons [12]. - **Strategy View**: The smelting profit of primary and recycled lead is good, and the smelter's operating rate is relatively high, but the shortage of raw materials limits the output of lead ingots. The domestic social inventory of lead ingots has bottomed out and rebounded but is still at a relatively low level. LME lead has continued to reduce inventory, and the price difference between months has strengthened. The tightening of the near - end and the shortage of raw materials push lead prices to run strongly. SHFE lead is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the SHFE zinc index rose 0.05% to 22,704 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading positions were 227,400 lots. LME zinc 3S fell to $3,065.5/ton. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 22,610 yuan/ton, and the basis in different regions varied. SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 70,900 tons, and LME zinc ingot inventory was 35,300 tons. Domestic social inventory decreased slightly [14]. - **Strategy View**: The TC of zinc concentrates continued to decline, the profit of zinc smelting was under pressure, and the operating rate decreased marginally. The accumulation of domestic zinc ingot social inventory slowed down. Some short - position holders of SHFE zinc turned to net long positions. The registered warehouse receipts of LME zinc increased slightly, and the overseas structural risk eased. The decline in zinc smelting operations and some zinc ingot exports tightened the spot market, pushing SHFE zinc to run strongly in the short - term, but the upside of zinc prices in the surplus cycle is relatively limited [15]. Tin - **Market Information**: On November 12, 2025, the closing price of SHFE tin main contract was 298,050 yuan/ton, up 1.92%. The registered warehouse receipts of SHFE futures decreased by 126 tons. The price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan rose to 279,000 yuan/ton. After the seasonal maintenance of large smelters in Yunnan ended, the operating rate of tin ingot smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi rebounded but was still at a historical low due to the shortage of tin ore supply. Although the mining license in Myanmar's Wa State was approved, the tin ore export volume was still far below the normal level. The consumption in traditional fields was weak, but the long - term demand from emerging fields provided support for tin prices, and the operating rate of tin solder enterprises in October showed a slight recovery [16]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term supply and demand of tin are in a tight - balance state, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to go long at low prices. The operating range of domestic main contract is 290,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton, and that of overseas LME tin is 37,000 - 39,000 dollars/ton [17][18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, nickel prices fluctuated and fell, with the closing price of SHFE nickel main contract at 118,710 yuan/ton, down 0.56%. The spot premiums of various brands were stable. The price of nickel ore was stable and strong, while the price of nickel iron accelerated to decline [19]. - **Strategy View**: Recently, the inventory pressure of refined nickel is still significant, and the weak nickel iron price drags down nickel prices. If the inventory of refined nickel continues to increase, it is difficult for nickel prices to rise significantly. However, in the medium - and long - term, the global fiscal and monetary easing cycle will support nickel prices, and nickel prices may confirm the bottom earlier than the fundamentals. It is recommended to observe in the short - term. If the decline of nickel prices is sufficient (115,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton) or the risk preference is high, long positions can be gradually established. The operating range of SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel 3M is 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 85,843 yuan, down 0.23%. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 200 yuan, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.24%. The closing price of LC2601 contract was 86,580 yuan, up 0.05%. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 250 yuan [22]. - **Strategy View**: The demand has reached a new high, and the spot is strong. Lithium carbonate fluctuates at a high level. As the peak season is in the middle and late stages, the continuity of downstream raw material demand may be limited. If there is no continuous driving force, pay attention to the selling pressure at high levels. It is recommended to pay attention to the production schedule of lithium - battery materials in December and the changes in the equity market atmosphere. The operating range of LC2601 contract is 84,000 - 89,200 yuan/ton [23][24]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On November 12, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.25% to 2,842 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading positions increased by 10,000 to 559,000 lots. The spot price in Shandong was 2,780 yuan/ton, at a discount of 7 yuan/ton to the 12 - contract. The FOB price in Australia remained at $320/ton, and the import loss was - 44 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts were 253,700 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The CIF prices of ore in Guinea and Australia remained stable [26]. - **Strategy View**: The shipment of overseas ore will gradually recover after the rainy season, and the ore price is expected to decline. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short - term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the expectation of subsequent production cuts is strengthened. Moreover, the overall non - ferrous sector is strong, so the cost - performance of short - selling is not high. It is recommended to observe in the short - term. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [27]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,425 yuan/ton, down 0.32%. The unilateral positions increased by 12,203 to 205,700 lots. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets changed slightly. The prices of raw materials such as high - nickel iron and high - carbon ferrochrome decreased. The futures inventory decreased by 1,566 to 72,091 tons, and the social inventory decreased to 1.034 million tons, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 1.90% [29]. - **Strategy View**: The stainless steel market continues to show a weak and fluctuating trend, mainly affected by the double pressure of oversupply and weak demand. Although the production schedule of steel mills in November has shrunk slightly, the overall output is still at a high level, and the market supply pressure has not been significantly relieved. Terminal purchases are mainly for rigid demand, and the trading volume in the trading link is continuously low, and the market activity is not high. The inventory pressure accumulated in the early stage is gradually released, and the inventory - reduction speed slows down, further strengthening the market's wait - and - see sentiment. Stainless steel prices are expected to remain weak in the short - term [30].

Core Insights - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that the total market value of fund holdings in the real estate sector for Q3 2025 is 55.8 billion, reflecting a 15% quarter-on-quarter increase [1] - The market value of real estate holdings accounts for 0.62% of the total stock investment value, which is a decrease of 0.05 percentage points from the previous quarter [1] - The sector is underweighted by 0.64 percentage points relative to the standard industry allocation, with this underweighting expanding by 0.08 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, placing it at the 37th percentile since 2013 [1] - The real estate industry index rose by 20.05% in Q3 2025, ranking 9th out of 31 sectors [1] Market Dynamics - The steady increase in the index is driven by two main factors: first, the weak fundamentals in the real estate sector during Q3 have led to heightened expectations for further policy easing, which has improved market sentiment [1] - Second, some leading real estate companies have achieved value re-evaluation opportunities through business transformation or investments in technology and new energy sectors, contributing to the overall performance of the industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury market experienced a significant drop followed by a period of consolidation after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks raised doubts about a potential third consecutive rate cut in December [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained flat at 4.08% on Thursday, after surging by 10 basis points the previous trading day [1] - Following the Fed's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points, Powell's statement that further cuts this year are "far from guaranteed" dampened expectations for aggressive monetary easing [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Nicholas Mastoyani, a portfolio manager at Western Asset Management, noted that Powell's reaffirmation of "inflation still above target and a cooling but not collapsing labor market" created a hawkish tone that put the market at a disadvantage [1] - Futures markets indicated that traders' pricing for another rate cut by year-end plummeted from approximately 90% before the meeting to 60% afterward, reflecting an implied additional cut of about 15 basis points [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - The price of spot gold experienced significant volatility, reaching a low of $3,886.51, the lowest level since October 6, due to optimistic sentiments surrounding US-China trade negotiations, which diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1][4] - On October 28, spot gold fell to a three-week low, dropping 0.73% to close at $3,952.71 per ounce, influenced by improved trade outlooks [1][4] - The recent progress in US-China trade talks, including a framework agreement on soybean purchases and a pause on rare earth export controls, has led to a decrease in gold prices as investors preferred to sell gold [4][6] Group 2: Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September rose by 3% year-on-year, indicating that inflation remains above target levels, providing room for "moderate rate cuts" [3] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in October and another in December have been largely priced in, limiting direct support for gold prices [3] - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions regarding the pace of rate cuts and the potential impact of political pressure from President Trump on interest rates are key factors influencing market sentiment [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The recent escalation of conflict in Gaza, following Israel's military actions against Hamas, has added to geopolitical tensions, which traditionally support gold prices [5][6] - Despite the current pressures on gold prices, long-term factors such as geopolitical risks, inflation expectations, and monetary policy uncertainties continue to support gold's attractiveness [8] Group 4: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - The recent drop in gold prices below $4,000 triggered technical sell-offs, with significant stop-loss orders being activated, leading to rapid declines [8] - If gold can reclaim and maintain the $4,000 level, it would signal a strong bullish trend; otherwise, continued trading below this level may indicate a short-term top has formed [8] - Investors are advised to monitor the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision and the outcomes of the US-China summit for potential market direction [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is shock, the medium - term view is shock, the intraday view is shock - biased strong, and the overall view is shock. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the long - term expectation of monetary easing still exists [1]. - The intraday view of varieties TL, T, TF, TS is shock - biased strong, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock. The short - term trend of treasury bond futures is mainly shock - based. The core logic is that treasury bond futures fluctuated and sorted out yesterday and closed slightly lower. The Sino - US economic and trade consultations from October 24th to 27th in Malaysia led to a decline in risk - aversion sentiment. There is still a problem of insufficient effective domestic demand, so a relatively loose monetary environment is needed in the long - term. However, due to the strong resilience of the macro - economy, there is a lack of necessity for an overall interest rate cut in the short - term, and the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is limited [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term is shock, the medium - term is shock, the intraday is shock - biased strong, and the overall view is shock. The core logic is the change in interest rate cut expectations in the short - and long - term [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is shock - biased strong, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock. The short - term treasury bond futures are mainly in shock. The driving factors include the Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the problem of insufficient domestic demand, and the strong resilience of the macro - economy [5].

Core Insights - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has seen a slight increase of 0.04%, marking a three-day consecutive rise, with the latest price at 107.24 yuan [3] - The ETF has accumulated a weekly increase of 1.31% as of October 22, 2025 [3] - The recent issuance of a government bond with a planned issuance of 55 billion yuan was fully subscribed, with an annual yield of 1.35% [3] Market Overview - As of the end of September 2025, foreign institutions held 3.78 trillion yuan in the interbank bond market, accounting for 2.2% of the total custody amount [4] - Among the bonds held by foreign institutions, 2.00 trillion yuan were government bonds, representing 52.9% of their holdings [4] - The market has seen the entry of 11 new foreign institutional entities into the interbank bond market in September [4] Economic Context - The uncertainty in geopolitical situations has eased, leading to a reduction in risk-averse sentiment [4] - There are ongoing concerns regarding insufficient domestic demand, necessitating a supportive monetary environment to stabilize demand [4] - The pressure to achieve economic growth targets for 2025 is relatively low, indicating strong resilience in the macro economy [4] ETF Performance - The latest scale of the Bosera 30-year government bond ETF reached 17.509 billion yuan [4] - The ETF closely tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange's 30-year government bond index, reflecting the overall performance of corresponding maturity government bonds [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, the intraday view is to oscillate with a slight upward bias, and the overall view is to oscillate. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the long - term expectation of a loose monetary policy still exists [1]. - For the main varieties of financial futures in the bond index sector (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is to oscillate with a slight upward bias, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the overall reference view is to oscillate. Short - term interest rate cut expectations have cooled, but long - term policy easing expectations still support bond futures. Also, the weakening of external risks has reduced the safe - haven demand for bonds, resulting in insufficient upward momentum. In general, bond futures will mainly oscillate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are to oscillate, and the intraday view is to oscillate with a slight upward bias. The core logic is the change in interest rate cut expectations in the short and long terms [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The main varieties (TL, T, TF, TS) have an intraday view of oscillating with a slight upward bias and a medium - term view of oscillating. The reference view is to oscillate. The GDP growth in the first three quarters reached 5.2%, reducing the short - term need for interest rate cuts. The unchanged LPR in October also cooled short - term interest rate cut expectations. However, long - term domestic demand problems still require a loose monetary environment, and the easing expectation supports bond futures. The weakening of external risks has reduced the safe - haven demand for bonds, leading to insufficient upward momentum. So, short - term bond futures will mainly oscillate [5].

Core Viewpoint - If U.S. inflation data meets or falls below expectations, it may strengthen market expectations for deeper policy easing in 2025-2026, thereby exerting downward pressure on yields and the dollar [1] Group 1 - Analyst Konstantinos Chrysikos from Kudotrade highlights the potential impact of U.S. inflation data on market expectations [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current futures market is at a stage of intense collision between macro - drivers and industrial realities. Precious metals have prominent allocation value. For non - ferrous metals, pay attention to the long - position layout opportunities for copper after a pullback. The black - metal sector is under pressure, and its rebound depends on domestic policies. The energy - chemical sector is suppressed by crude oil and is a short - term short - allocation choice. Some agricultural products like sugar have independent long - position opportunities [2]. - Investors should follow the idea of "macro determines the direction, industry determines the variety", focus on key events such as the Fed's interest - rate meeting in late October, policy settings of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, and the follow - up progress of Sino - US trade negotiations, and adjust positions flexibly while strictly managing risks [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Summary of Core Macro Hotspots during the National Day Holiday (1) International Macro: Loose Expectations and Geopolitical Risks - US economic data is weak, with a 32,000 decrease in September ADP employment and a drop in ISM services PMI. The probability of a Fed rate cut in October has risen to 99%, and the expected cumulative rate - cut range this year is 50 - 75 basis points. The US government shutdown has disrupted data release and increased market volatility. OPEC+ has slowed down production increases, but there are concerns about long - term supply surpluses. Geopolitical risks are structurally differentiated, with the Middle East situation easing and the Russia - Ukraine conflict continuing. Trade protectionism is on the rise, with the EU and the US introducing tariff - increasing measures [6][7][9][10][11]. (2) Domestic Macro: Policy Expectations and Structural Recovery of Domestic Demand - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is expected to set mid - to long - term policy frameworks. Industrial policies are coordinated, with plans for the steel and building materials industries. Economic data shows structural characteristics, with slow manufacturing recovery and differentiated holiday consumption. Financial data has improved marginally, and there are changes in foreign trade policies and domestic industrial adjustment [13][15][16][17]. 2. Outlook for Each Sector (1) Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - Precious metals are strong due to factors like the US government shutdown, weak economic data, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Copper has long - term support but faces short - term consumption suppression. Aluminum is relatively weak, and tin's price is affected by supply and consumption [21][22][23]. (2) Black Metals Sector - Steel has high inventory and weak demand, and its price depends on policy signals. Iron ore has a loose supply - demand pattern, and coking coal and coke are in a negative feedback loop in the industrial chain [24][25][27]. (3) Energy Sector - Crude oil is in a range - bound state with multiple factors at play, and natural gas is expected to be strong due to demand growth and supply concerns [28][29][30]. (4) Chemical Sector - Crude - oil - related products are expected to be weak, and glass is strong due to supply contraction while纯碱 is under pressure [30][31]. (5) Agricultural Products Sector - There are structural opportunities in oilseeds, policy support in grains, differentiated trends in soft commodities, and bottom - bound oscillations in livestock and eggs [32][33][35]. 3. Conclusions and Suggestions - The futures market is in a period of intense collision between macro - drivers and industrial realities. Different sectors have different characteristics, and investors should focus on key events, adjust positions flexibly, and manage risks [37].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of Treasury bond futures is that they are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, while the medium - term view is that they will be volatile. The overall reference view is also volatile. This is due to the short - term increase in risk aversion sentiment and the long - term expectation of a loose monetary policy [1][5]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, the intraday view is volatile and slightly stronger, and the overall view is volatile. The core logic is the short - term increase in risk aversion sentiment and the long - term expectation of a loose monetary policy [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of Treasury bond futures (TL, T, TF, TS) is volatile and slightly stronger, and the medium - term view is volatile. The reference view is volatile. The core logic is that last Friday, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose. Recently, external uncertainties have increased, leading to a rise in market risk aversion sentiment, which strongly supports Treasury bond futures. Macro data in September, such as inflation and financial data, are still weak, so there is an expectation of a loose monetary policy in the future, which also supports Treasury bond futures in the long run. Overall, due to the short - term increase in risk aversion and long - term loose expectations, Treasury bond futures are volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [5].