Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market showed significant cooling in July, with employment growth slowing sharply and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [1] Employment Data - Non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000 in July, significantly below the expected increase of 110,000 [1] - The June employment figure was revised down from an initial estimate of 147,000 to just 14,000 [1] Unemployment Rate - The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% in June to 4.2% in July, indicating a deterioration in the labor market [1] Federal Reserve Response - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50% [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's comments after the decision diminished market expectations for a return to policy easing in September [1] - Powell described the labor market as being in a "balanced state" with synchronized declines in supply and demand, but acknowledged the dynamic suggests "downside risks" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in 2025 is experiencing uncertainty, with key figures like Jack Ma and Wang Shi providing insights that suggest a potential turning point in July, indicating a cautious optimism for market recovery [1][3][6] Group 1: Market Adjustment and Recovery - Both Ma and Wang agree that the market has undergone a significant adjustment period, with Ma stating that the adjustment is nearing its end and Wang noting that the market is in a phase of adjustment [3][5] - They emphasize that the potential for further significant declines in the market is limited, with a focus on stability being the prevailing theme [3][5] Group 2: Policy Impact - Both figures express optimism regarding the future effects of policy changes, with Ma predicting a more relaxed policy environment in the second half of the year and Wang highlighting the importance of policy effects becoming evident after July [5][6] - Recent government measures aimed at ensuring housing delivery, optimizing purchase restrictions, and lowering down payments and interest rates are seen as critical support for their market outlook [5] Group 3: Housing as a Necessity - Ma stresses the need for real estate to return to its fundamental role as housing, while Wang warns that any market recovery should not revert to previous high-growth patterns, aligning with the national stance of "housing is for living, not for speculation" [5][6] - This shift indicates that the previous investment-driven logic based on soaring property prices is no longer viable, with future market dynamics expected to be driven by residential demand [5][6] Group 4: Buyer Guidance - For potential homebuyers, those with genuine housing needs and financial capability may find it a suitable time to enter the market, while investors should remain cautious and avoid unrealistic expectations of price surges [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is experiencing significant growth, with the Bank AH Preferred ETF (517900) reaching a historical high, driven by policy easing expectations and strong market demand for bank fundamentals [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 8, the Bank AH Preferred ETF (517900) has increased by 0.18%, marking its third consecutive rise [1] - Over the past 10 days, the ETF has risen by 2.67%, and by 6.98% over the last 20 days, with a year-to-date increase of 26.53% [1] - The trading volume is active, with a transaction amount of approximately 26 million, and the fund's size has grown by 590.69% this year, exceeding 700 million, setting a new historical high [1] Group 2: Investment Insights - The growth in the banking sector is attributed to a combination of liquidity easing and valuation recovery logic, with high dividend stocks expected to maintain strong performance [1] - The index for the Bank AH Preferred ETF had a dividend yield of 5.92% as of the end of May, reflecting a strategy of selecting undervalued stocks [1] - Investors can access this ETF through linked funds (Class A: 016572; Class C: 016573) [1] Group 3: Future Considerations - In the short term, liquidity easing and valuation recovery will likely dominate the sector's performance [1] - In the medium to long term, attention should be paid to economic transformation and industry differentiation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the mixed performance of the US stock market, highlighting the impact of large technology stocks on market declines while cyclical sectors like energy and materials showed strength [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On the trading day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 400.17 points, or 0.91%, closing at 44,494.94 points, while the S&P 500 index fell by 6.94 points, or 0.11%, to 6,198.01 points, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 166.85 points, or 0.82%, to 20,202.89 points [1]. - The market showed significant sector divergence, with energy, materials, and industrial sectors leading, while technology and consumer discretionary sectors lagged [1]. - The Dow Jones Transportation Index surged by 2.9%, marking its largest single-day gain since mid-May, indicating cautious optimism regarding economic prospects [1]. Group 2: Technology Sector - Technology stocks were the main contributors to the market decline, particularly momentum stocks that had previously seen significant gains, leading to concentrated sell-offs [1]. - Tesla's stock fell by 5.4%, reaching a three-week low, following President Trump's comments about potentially terminating federal subsidies for Musk's companies, raising concerns about policy risks [1][2]. - Nvidia and Netflix saw declines of over 2% and 3%, respectively, while Apple managed a 1% increase, indicating mixed performance within the tech sector [2]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The US Senate passed a large tax and spending bill pushed by Trump, which, despite raising concerns about deficits, is expected to inject some policy easing into the market [3]. - The US job openings unexpectedly rose in May, indicating resilience in the labor market [3]. - The ISM reported that the manufacturing PMI for June increased from 48.5 to 49.0, slightly above market expectations, suggesting stabilization in manufacturing activity, although it remains in contraction territory [3]. Group 4: Commodities - Precious metals saw a general increase due to a decline in the dollar and heightened risk aversion, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.27% to $3,349.8 per ounce, setting a new historical high [4]. - Crude oil prices experienced slight increases, with WTI and Brent crude rising by 0.52% and 0.55%, respectively, closing at $65.45 and $67.11 per barrel, as the market awaits new supply guidance from OPEC [4].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Shenzhen and other first-tier cities is experiencing a notable recovery, with significant sales performance in April, driven by strong demand and supportive policies [2][3][10]. Group 1: Shenzhen Market Performance - The Hongshan Huafu project in Shenzhen sold 184 units within an hour of its launch, marking it as the second "daylight plate" of the year [1][5]. - In April, Shenzhen's new home sales reached 4,751 units, a year-on-year increase of 68%, while second-hand home sales were 6,266 units, up 27% [2]. - The strong sales in Shenzhen reflect a robust demand for affordable housing, supported by favorable policies [5][16]. Group 2: Overall Market Trends - The real estate market in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou is also showing high transaction volumes, indicating a sustained recovery trend [3][6][7]. - The "small spring" phenomenon in March has continued into April, with many cities maintaining high sales levels [4][10]. - Despite the overall positive trend, some cities have seen a decline in sales compared to March, highlighting a mixed performance across different regions [11][12]. Group 3: Policy Impact - Recent government meetings have emphasized the need for a stable real estate market, with expectations of further policy support to enhance housing supply and stabilize prices [13][14][16]. - The upcoming housing exhibition in Shenzhen aims to promote quality projects and maintain market enthusiasm [15]. - Analysts predict that the real estate market will continue to recover in the second quarter, driven by ongoing policy measures and increased supply of quality housing [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry, but gives individual ratings for each black commodity: steel - narrow - range adjustment; iron ore - repeated oscillations; coking coal - consolidation; coke - consolidation; manganese silicon - oscillation; ferrosilicon - oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various black commodities on April 25, 2025, including price changes, supply - demand situations, and future trends [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures fell slightly, with the 2510 contract closing at 3106 yuan/ton, down 0.99%. Spot prices also declined, and trading volume decreased. This week, rebar production decreased slightly, inventory decline narrowed, and apparent demand dropped significantly. Considering short - term tariff war relief and domestic policy expectations, as well as raw material and finished - product support, it is expected to have a narrow - range adjustment [1] - **Iron Ore**: The main iron ore futures contract i2509 dropped 0.96% to 720.5 yuan/ton. Port spot prices also fell. Supply showed a slight increase in global shipments, while demand saw an increase in molten iron production and a rise in port inventory. Under the interweaving of long and short factors, it is expected to oscillate repeatedly [1] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures dropped 0.68% to 956 yuan/ton. Spot prices in some areas decreased. Supply is relatively stable, and demand is mainly for on - demand procurement. With policy support expectations, it is expected to consolidate in the short term [1] - **Coke**: The coke futures dropped 0.28% to 1590.5 yuan/ton. Spot prices at ports declined. Supply production is stable, and demand is supported by high - level blast furnace operation. It is expected to consolidate in the short term [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures weakened, with the main contract at 5822 yuan/ton, down 0.99%. Spot prices declined, and market sentiment needs to be boosted. With a decrease in supply in the main production areas, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures weakened, with the main contract at 5658 yuan/ton, down 0.67%. Spot prices in some areas decreased, and market sentiment is weak. With continued production cuts in the main production areas, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [1] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the latest and环比 data of contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities, as well as profit, spread data such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit, etc [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts for various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [6][7][10] - **Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trends of main contracts for various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [18][19][22] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the spread trends of inter - period contracts for various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][29][32] - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: It shows the spread trends of inter - variety contracts for various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, etc [41][42][43] - **Rebar Profits**: It shows the profit trends of rebar's main contract disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 to 2025 [46][47][48] 3.4 Black Research Team Members - The black research team members include Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich industry experience and relevant professional qualifications [52][53]