内房股今日普涨，截至发稿，保利置业集团(00119)涨6.49%，报1.97港元；中国金茂(00817)涨3.31%， 报1.25港元；新城发展(01030)涨2.44%，报2.1港元；中国奥园(03883)涨2.38%，报0.086港元。 财通证券（601108）发布研报称，短期看，基本面进一步下行带来的政策宽松预期有望推动板块估值修 复，长期需关注房企在新模式下的发展机遇。建议短期关注政策宽松带来的估值修复机会，中长期聚焦 具备核心城市资源和不动产运营能力的龙头企业。 ...

财通证券发布研报称，短期看，基本面进一步下行带来的政策宽松预期有望推动板块估值修复，长期需 关注房企在新模式下的发展机遇。建议短期关注政策宽松带来的估值修复机会，中长期聚焦具备核心城 市资源和不动产运营能力的龙头企业。 智通财经APP获悉，内房股今日普涨，截至发稿，保利置业集团(00119)涨6.49%，报1.97港元；中国金 茂(00817)涨3.31%，报1.25港元；新城发展(01030)涨2.44%，报2.1港元；中国奥园(03883)涨2.38%，报 0.086港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant rally in the Chinese real estate stocks, driven by expectations of policy easing amid a deteriorating economic outlook [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Vanke Enterprises (02202) surged by 16.47%, trading at HKD 3.89 [1] - Sunac China (01918) increased by 12.56%, reaching HKD 1.39 [1] - Jin Hui Holdings (09993) rose by 11.56%, priced at HKD 2.22 [1] - Shimao Group (00813) climbed by 9.85%, now at HKD 0.223 [1] - Agile Group (03383) gained 9.68%, trading at HKD 0.34 [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Caixin Securities' recent report suggests that the expectation of policy easing due to further deterioration in the fundamentals may lead to a valuation recovery in the sector [1] - The report emphasizes the need to focus on leading companies with core city resources and real estate operational capabilities for long-term investment opportunities [1] - Galaxy Securities indicates that risks in real estate, small financial institutions, and local debts may be key areas for future policy interventions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing a rebound that is currently stagnating, influenced by rising US Treasury yields and interventions from Japanese authorities, particularly the hawkish signals from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Japanese yen was the weakest currency on Tuesday, facing selling pressure as market sentiment improved and the impact of former BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's unexpected hawkish comments began to fade [1]. - The market's expectations for the BOJ's tightening policy provide potential support for the yen, as Ueda's hawkish remarks indicate a consideration of the "pros and cons" of interest rate hikes, which negatively affected market risk appetite [1]. - A recent auction of Japanese government bonds exceeded expectations, alleviating some market concerns, although overall risk appetite remains fragile [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - US economic data has reinforced expectations for policy easing, with the November ISM Manufacturing PMI indicating that industry activity has contracted for the ninth consecutive month, alongside deteriorating new orders and employment metrics, and rising inflation levels [1]. - The divergence in monetary policy between the US and Japan is expected to continue, limiting the upside potential for the USD/JPY exchange rate [2].

央行政策路径分化是汇价的主要驱动。美联储方面，多位核心官员释放明确降息信号：沃勒称疲软劳动 力数据支持12月降息，威廉姆斯提及降息可能性，戴利则直接支持下月行动。巴克莱数据显示，市场对 12月降息25个基点的定价概率已超80%，摩根大通更预测12月与明年1月将各降一次。尽管降息预期升 温，但政策转向共识形成推动美元短期避险买盘，为汇价提供支撑。 技术面上，美元兑加元自10月触底1.3780后，形成震荡上行通道。目前汇价站稳1.3950关键支撑位，5日 与10日均线呈金叉向上，MACD指标在正区间温和放量，短期上行动能相对充足，但1.4000心理关口与 前期震荡上沿形成联合阻力，突破需新的宏观催化剂。 后市需聚焦三大信号：一是12月9-10日美联储议息会议，降息幅度与政策声明将直接影响美元走势；二 是"欧佩克+"12月产量决策，若释放减产信号或缓解油价与加元压力；三是加拿大11月就业数据，将反 映经济韧性并指引央行政策方向。点位上，上方阻力关注1.3980-1.4000，下方支撑聚焦1.3940-1.3920区 间。 加拿大央行则陷入"经济复苏乏力+能源出口承压"的困境。9月其已将基准利率下调25个基点至2.5 ...

新华财经北京12月2日电上周，现货黄金上涨后维持高位运行，本周预计核心矛盾聚焦美国资本市场年 底资产配置调整以及美联储政策预期扰动，金价整体延续强势但短期波动或将加剧。 综合分析来看，年底机构调仓对金价构成短期压制，但难以逆转"政策宽松预期+央行配置+去美元 化"的中长期利好逻辑。当前金价高位震荡属"获利了结"与"长期配置"的力量平衡，回调幅度有限，逢 低布局仍是核心策略。 （文章来源：新华财经） 首先，需关注美国年底资产配置调整，桥水等头部对冲基金清仓黄金类资产，机构认为当前金价已脱 离"高性价比"区间，年底获利了结需求升温 。但贝莱德等机构维持黄金持仓稳定，全球央行去美元化 进程提速，长期配置需求形成底部支撑 。从中不难看出各大机构的配置逻辑，年底机构倾向"锁定收益 +对冲风险"，高利率环境下部分资金回流美债，但财政僵局与经济不确定性仍让黄金保留"组合保险"属 性。其次，美联储政策及经济数据也对金价造成一定影响。另外，地缘局势方面，中东、俄乌局势维持 局部紧张，但和平谈判进展使避险情绪边际降温，对金价影响从"主导"转为"辅助"。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The expectation of the US government reopening and the easing of trade tensions boost market sentiment. The copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, aluminum may further rise, casting aluminum alloy prices will follow aluminum prices, lead and zinc will run strongly in the short - term but with limited upside, tin will be in a tight - balance state and prices are expected to be strong, nickel should be observed in the short - term, and stainless steel will maintain a weak trend [2][3][6][10][13][15][17][20][30]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The US government's expected reopening and policy easing expectations pushed up precious metals, but the sharp drop in crude oil prices caused copper prices to fall back after rising. LME copper 3M contract rose 0.53% to $10,897/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 87,410 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory remained flat, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts increased. Spot premiums and discounts varied in different regions, and the import loss of domestic copper was about 700 yuan/ton [2]. - **Strategy View**: The expectation of the US government reopening and the easing of trade tensions boost market sentiment. Although some copper mines have resumed production, the supply of copper mines remains tight, and refined copper supply is expected to tighten marginally, providing strong support for copper prices. Short - term copper prices may continue to fluctuate strongly. The operating range of SHFE copper main contract is 86,500 - 88,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is 10,820 - 11,000 dollars/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices continued to be strong but fell back after rising due to the sharp drop in crude oil prices. LME aluminum rose 0.23% to $2,886/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,950 yuan/ton. SHFE weighted contract positions increased significantly, and domestic inventories changed slightly. The processing fee of aluminum rods fluctuated and declined, and the market receiving atmosphere was average [5]. - **Strategy View**: Overseas aluminum plant shutdowns or production cuts have raised supply concerns, and domestic inventories are still low. Against the background of the expected easing of global trade tensions and the implementation of the Fed's interest rate cut, supply - side disturbances and the improvement of domestic export expectations may push aluminum prices higher. Pay attention to the support of domestic inventories for prices. The operating range of SHFE aluminum main contract is 21,820 - 22,200 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is 2,840 - 2,910 dollars/ton [6]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices strengthened, with the main AD2601 contract rising 0.97% to 21,245 yuan/ton. Positions increased, and the volume of transactions expanded. The price difference between AL2601 and AD2601 contracts widened slightly. The average price of domestic mainstream ADC12 increased, and the inventory of domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased [9]. - **Strategy View**: The cost - side price of cast aluminum alloy has strong support, while the demand - side performance is relatively average. Short - term prices are expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices [10]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the SHFE lead index rose 1.26% to 17,664 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading positions were 127,400 lots. LME lead 3S rose to $2,072.5/ton. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,325 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton. SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 24,700 tons, and LME lead ingot inventory was 226,700 tons [12]. - **Strategy View**: The smelting profit of primary and recycled lead is good, and the smelter's operating rate is relatively high, but the shortage of raw materials limits the output of lead ingots. The domestic social inventory of lead ingots has bottomed out and rebounded but is still at a relatively low level. LME lead has continued to reduce inventory, and the price difference between months has strengthened. The tightening of the near - end and the shortage of raw materials push lead prices to run strongly. SHFE lead is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the SHFE zinc index rose 0.05% to 22,704 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading positions were 227,400 lots. LME zinc 3S fell to $3,065.5/ton. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 22,610 yuan/ton, and the basis in different regions varied. SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 70,900 tons, and LME zinc ingot inventory was 35,300 tons. Domestic social inventory decreased slightly [14]. - **Strategy View**: The TC of zinc concentrates continued to decline, the profit of zinc smelting was under pressure, and the operating rate decreased marginally. The accumulation of domestic zinc ingot social inventory slowed down. Some short - position holders of SHFE zinc turned to net long positions. The registered warehouse receipts of LME zinc increased slightly, and the overseas structural risk eased. The decline in zinc smelting operations and some zinc ingot exports tightened the spot market, pushing SHFE zinc to run strongly in the short - term, but the upside of zinc prices in the surplus cycle is relatively limited [15]. Tin - **Market Information**: On November 12, 2025, the closing price of SHFE tin main contract was 298,050 yuan/ton, up 1.92%. The registered warehouse receipts of SHFE futures decreased by 126 tons. The price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan rose to 279,000 yuan/ton. After the seasonal maintenance of large smelters in Yunnan ended, the operating rate of tin ingot smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi rebounded but was still at a historical low due to the shortage of tin ore supply. Although the mining license in Myanmar's Wa State was approved, the tin ore export volume was still far below the normal level. The consumption in traditional fields was weak, but the long - term demand from emerging fields provided support for tin prices, and the operating rate of tin solder enterprises in October showed a slight recovery [16]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term supply and demand of tin are in a tight - balance state, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to go long at low prices. The operating range of domestic main contract is 290,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton, and that of overseas LME tin is 37,000 - 39,000 dollars/ton [17][18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, nickel prices fluctuated and fell, with the closing price of SHFE nickel main contract at 118,710 yuan/ton, down 0.56%. The spot premiums of various brands were stable. The price of nickel ore was stable and strong, while the price of nickel iron accelerated to decline [19]. - **Strategy View**: Recently, the inventory pressure of refined nickel is still significant, and the weak nickel iron price drags down nickel prices. If the inventory of refined nickel continues to increase, it is difficult for nickel prices to rise significantly. However, in the medium - and long - term, the global fiscal and monetary easing cycle will support nickel prices, and nickel prices may confirm the bottom earlier than the fundamentals. It is recommended to observe in the short - term. If the decline of nickel prices is sufficient (115,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton) or the risk preference is high, long positions can be gradually established. The operating range of SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel 3M is 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 85,843 yuan, down 0.23%. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 200 yuan, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.24%. The closing price of LC2601 contract was 86,580 yuan, up 0.05%. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 250 yuan [22]. - **Strategy View**: The demand has reached a new high, and the spot is strong. Lithium carbonate fluctuates at a high level. As the peak season is in the middle and late stages, the continuity of downstream raw material demand may be limited. If there is no continuous driving force, pay attention to the selling pressure at high levels. It is recommended to pay attention to the production schedule of lithium - battery materials in December and the changes in the equity market atmosphere. The operating range of LC2601 contract is 84,000 - 89,200 yuan/ton [23][24]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On November 12, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.25% to 2,842 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading positions increased by 10,000 to 559,000 lots. The spot price in Shandong was 2,780 yuan/ton, at a discount of 7 yuan/ton to the 12 - contract. The FOB price in Australia remained at $320/ton, and the import loss was - 44 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts were 253,700 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The CIF prices of ore in Guinea and Australia remained stable [26]. - **Strategy View**: The shipment of overseas ore will gradually recover after the rainy season, and the ore price is expected to decline. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short - term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the expectation of subsequent production cuts is strengthened. Moreover, the overall non - ferrous sector is strong, so the cost - performance of short - selling is not high. It is recommended to observe in the short - term. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [27]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,425 yuan/ton, down 0.32%. The unilateral positions increased by 12,203 to 205,700 lots. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets changed slightly. The prices of raw materials such as high - nickel iron and high - carbon ferrochrome decreased. The futures inventory decreased by 1,566 to 72,091 tons, and the social inventory decreased to 1.034 million tons, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 1.90% [29]. - **Strategy View**: The stainless steel market continues to show a weak and fluctuating trend, mainly affected by the double pressure of oversupply and weak demand. Although the production schedule of steel mills in November has shrunk slightly, the overall output is still at a high level, and the market supply pressure has not been significantly relieved. Terminal purchases are mainly for rigid demand, and the trading volume in the trading link is continuously low, and the market activity is not high. The inventory pressure accumulated in the early stage is gradually released, and the inventory - reduction speed slows down, further strengthening the market's wait - and - see sentiment. Stainless steel prices are expected to remain weak in the short - term [30].

Core Insights - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that the total market value of fund holdings in the real estate sector for Q3 2025 is 55.8 billion, reflecting a 15% quarter-on-quarter increase [1] - The market value of real estate holdings accounts for 0.62% of the total stock investment value, which is a decrease of 0.05 percentage points from the previous quarter [1] - The sector is underweighted by 0.64 percentage points relative to the standard industry allocation, with this underweighting expanding by 0.08 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, placing it at the 37th percentile since 2013 [1] - The real estate industry index rose by 20.05% in Q3 2025, ranking 9th out of 31 sectors [1] Market Dynamics - The steady increase in the index is driven by two main factors: first, the weak fundamentals in the real estate sector during Q3 have led to heightened expectations for further policy easing, which has improved market sentiment [1] - Second, some leading real estate companies have achieved value re-evaluation opportunities through business transformation or investments in technology and new energy sectors, contributing to the overall performance of the industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury market experienced a significant drop followed by a period of consolidation after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks raised doubts about a potential third consecutive rate cut in December [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained flat at 4.08% on Thursday, after surging by 10 basis points the previous trading day [1] - Following the Fed's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points, Powell's statement that further cuts this year are "far from guaranteed" dampened expectations for aggressive monetary easing [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Nicholas Mastoyani, a portfolio manager at Western Asset Management, noted that Powell's reaffirmation of "inflation still above target and a cooling but not collapsing labor market" created a hawkish tone that put the market at a disadvantage [1] - Futures markets indicated that traders' pricing for another rate cut by year-end plummeted from approximately 90% before the meeting to 60% afterward, reflecting an implied additional cut of about 15 basis points [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - The price of spot gold experienced significant volatility, reaching a low of $3,886.51, the lowest level since October 6, due to optimistic sentiments surrounding US-China trade negotiations, which diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1][4] - On October 28, spot gold fell to a three-week low, dropping 0.73% to close at $3,952.71 per ounce, influenced by improved trade outlooks [1][4] - The recent progress in US-China trade talks, including a framework agreement on soybean purchases and a pause on rare earth export controls, has led to a decrease in gold prices as investors preferred to sell gold [4][6] Group 2: Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September rose by 3% year-on-year, indicating that inflation remains above target levels, providing room for "moderate rate cuts" [3] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in October and another in December have been largely priced in, limiting direct support for gold prices [3] - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions regarding the pace of rate cuts and the potential impact of political pressure from President Trump on interest rates are key factors influencing market sentiment [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The recent escalation of conflict in Gaza, following Israel's military actions against Hamas, has added to geopolitical tensions, which traditionally support gold prices [5][6] - Despite the current pressures on gold prices, long-term factors such as geopolitical risks, inflation expectations, and monetary policy uncertainties continue to support gold's attractiveness [8] Group 4: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - The recent drop in gold prices below $4,000 triggered technical sell-offs, with significant stop-loss orders being activated, leading to rapid declines [8] - If gold can reclaim and maintain the $4,000 level, it would signal a strong bullish trend; otherwise, continued trading below this level may indicate a short-term top has formed [8] - Investors are advised to monitor the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision and the outcomes of the US-China summit for potential market direction [8]