简而言之，本周的市场风险将由美国劳动力数据和日本政治局势两大支柱构成。美元正处于十字路口：要么受疲软就业数据重击，陷入宽松预期加剧的周期 性波动，要么受非农就业数据重振，提醒所有人经济仍在复苏。反过来，日元正等待着政治上的"骰子"掷出，最终为日本央行注入更强的底气。这不仅仅是 货币在区间内徘徊的问题，更是叙事拐点的问题。美元若无法在就业数据公布前重回正轨，则面临暴跌的风险，而日元则受政治明朗因素提振，可能继续保 持超过150的势头。交易员们应该保持警惕：本周，一份数据或一次政党投票就可能改变整个格局。 美联储已经明确表示——通胀巨龙已不再是洞穴中唯一的猛兽。如今，让鲍威尔夜不能寐的是劳动力市场的疲软。市场被明确告知：就业疲软等于政策更 软，政策更软就等于美元走软。这使得本周变成了一出三幕剧：周二的JOLTS就业岗位空缺、周四的每周初请失业金人数以及周五的就业数据高潮。但转折 点在于——鲍威尔本人曾表示，每月只需新增0至5万个就业岗位就能维持失业率稳定。如果就业数据意外强劲，即便幅度不大，也可能会重置市场仓位，并 给美元注入新的活力。然而，目前华尔街倾向于看好美元走软——押注美联储的手术刀将继续切割。 美元在新 ...

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing upward momentum, supported by expectations of monetary policy easing and safe-haven demand due to potential U.S. government shutdown risks. Group 1: Silver Price Movements - As of September 29, the spot silver price is trading at $46.92 per ounce, with a daily high of $47.17 and a low of $45.92 [1] - The silver price opened at $46.07 per ounce today [1] - The latest prices for various silver products include: - Silver T+D at 10,878 yuan per kilogram - Paper silver at 10.741 yuan per gram - Shanghai silver futures at 10,939 yuan per kilogram [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. core PCE price index for August shows a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, consistent with the previous value, while the month-on-month increase is 0.2% [3] - The overall PCE price index rose by 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, up from 2.6% previously [3] - The U.S. consumer confidence index for September is reported at 55.1, a decline of approximately 5% from August [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Expectations - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in October is 10.7%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 89.3% [3] - For December, the probability of maintaining rates is 2.9%, with cumulative probabilities for rate cuts of 25 basis points at 32.2% and 50 basis points at 64.9% [3] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Strategies - The silver market is supported by safe-haven demand as traders prepare for potential U.S. government shutdown risks [3] - Short-term trading strategies suggest maintaining a bullish stance on silver, with key support levels at $45.50 and $45.00, and resistance levels at $47.00 and $48.00 [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - economic data in China shows characteristics of "slow industrial growth, weak investment, and sluggish consumption", leading to an increased expectation of a new round of policy easing. The actual tin ore output in Myanmar's Wa State will not occur until the fourth quarter, and the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages. Currently, tin ore processing fees remain at historically low levels. The demand from downstream processing enterprises is in the recovery period of the peak season, but the order recovery is slow. The spot market is expected to remain quiet, with domestic inventory increasing and LME inventory rising while the spot premium drops significantly. Technically, with reduced positions and price corrections, there is a divergence in long - short trading, and attention should be paid to the MA5 support. It is recommended to either wait and see or conduct range trading [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 272,730 yuan/ton, down 1,230 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract of Shanghai Tin is down 300 yuan; the LME 3 - month tin price is 34,680 dollars/ton, down 275 dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Tin is 24,273 lots, down 1,844 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 2,149 lots, down 369 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 2,645 tons, up 25 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,897 tons, up 124 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 160 tons, down 25 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants of tin are 7,310 tons, down 92 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM1 tin spot price is 272,400 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 272,760 yuan/ton, down 1,180 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 330 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 132 dollars/ton, down 97.02 dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 261,300 yuan/ton, up 2,200 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 265,300 yuan/ton, up 2,200 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fee is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, down 0.16 million tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 176,650 yuan/ton, down 1,140 yuan. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 160.14 million tons, up 14.45 million tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 14.07 million tons, down 3.39 million tons. The year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail in August slowed to 3.4%, and the growth rate of household appliances and audio - visual equipment retail slowed to 14.3%. The year - on - year increase in the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in August was 5.2%, with good growth in the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries. From January to August, national fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5%, and manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%. From January to August, real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4.7% year - on - year [3] 3.6 Industry News - China's economic data in August shows "slow industrial growth, weak investment, and sluggish consumption", increasing the expectation of a new round of policy easing. The US has lowered the import tariff on Japanese cars to 15% starting from 0:01 on the 16th (Eastern Time). Myanmar's Wa State has restarted the mining license approval, but actual ore output will not occur until the fourth quarter; the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and currently, tin ore processing fees remain at historically low levels [3] 3.7 Key Points to Note - There is no news today [3]

Core Viewpoint - The global stock market is experiencing a paradox where bad economic news leads to positive market reactions, driven by strong expectations of future policy easing [1][2]. Group 1: Unusual Phenomenon - Bad economic data is now interpreted as good news for the market, as it increases the likelihood of central banks easing monetary policy [2]. - Examples include: - Weak U.S. non-farm payroll data leading to a stock market surge due to increased rate cut probabilities [2]. - A country's CPI inflation data declining unexpectedly, resulting in a stock market rise as it suggests potential early rate cuts [2]. - Geopolitical risks causing both gold and Bitcoin to rise, driven by heightened risk aversion and expectations of central bank liquidity [2]. Group 2: Deep Analysis - There is a fundamental shift in three core logics: - Central bank policy priorities have shifted from "anti-inflation" to "anti-recession," indicating a readiness to ease when recession risks outweigh inflation concerns [3]. - Liquidity expectations are now overshadowing corporate earnings fundamentals, leading to higher asset valuations even amid declining profits [4]. - Institutional investors are strategically positioning themselves to benefit from anticipated policy shifts rather than waiting for economic data to improve [5]. Group 3: UNFX Strategy Perspective - Different investor styles require distinct strategies: - Trend followers should respect market trends and avoid countering the prevailing market sentiment, even if valuations seem unreasonable [6]. - Value investors should maintain focus on individual stocks with stable cash flows and reasonable valuations, without overreacting to short-term market fluctuations [8]. - Ordinary investors are advised to avoid linear extrapolation of current market logic and remain cautious of potential policy disappointments that could lead to market reversals [9][10].

Group 1: Market Stability and Policy Expectations - The market's future focus will be on the return of overseas volatility and domestic policy expectations, especially with the Fed's interest rate cut window opening and the "14th Five-Year Plan" draft being discussed[2] - The official manufacturing PMI has been below the growth line for five consecutive months, increasing the likelihood of monetary easing measures such as rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions[4] - The youth unemployment rate has significantly increased, indicating urgent policy responses to stabilize employment are necessary[4] Group 2: Economic Trends and Risks - The overseas market has seen a decline in volatility, but recent geopolitical tensions and fiscal risks in Europe and Japan may lead to renewed market fluctuations[3] - The pressure for fiscal expansion and concerns over bond supply may further increase interest rates and liquidity pressures[3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" draft is expected to provide clearer signals for industry policy direction, with a focus on new productivity drivers[5] - The implementation of consumption-boosting policies is underway, with 30 measures being promoted to stimulate consumer spending[4][13] - Risks include potential policy outcomes falling short of expectations, unexpected changes in the domestic economic situation, and fluctuations in exports[6]

Core Insights - The recent rally in the A-share market is fundamentally different from previous short-term spikes, driven by improved liquidity, a shift in capital allocation, and expectations of policy easing, with increasing investor confidence in the long-term macroeconomic outlook [1][3] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index have risen approximately 11% and 8% year-to-date, respectively, with significant acceleration since late June [3] - On August 15, the Shanghai Composite Index surpassed 3700 points, reaching its highest level in nearly a decade since 2015, while the CSI 300 Index also broke through 4200 points, a level previously seen only briefly in September 2024 and January 2023 [3] Key Indicators for Sustainability - Investors should focus on four key signals to assess the sustainability of the current rally: changes in bond yields, policy catalysts, second-quarter earnings performance, and potential government interventions [3][4] - The current market momentum is expected to continue into the summer, with the CSI 300 Index potentially targeting a bullish goal of 4700 points in the short term [3][5] Liquidity Improvement - Domestic liquidity conditions are steadily improving, as indicated by Morgan Stanley's proprietary "Free Liquidity Indicator," which turned positive in June 2025 and remained positive in July, primarily due to funds flowing into the corporate sector from government bond issuances [3][4] Bond Yield Trends - The yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds have risen to 1.78% and 2.11%, respectively, reflecting a positive shift in investor expectations regarding the economic outlook [3][4] Policy Factors - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies in China are accumulating positive effects, boosting market sentiment and enhancing investor expectations for price stability and improved supply-demand dynamics [4] - Anticipation of new local and gradual real estate easing measures in the coming months is also contributing to market optimism [4] Earnings Performance - The A-share market achieved its first quarter of earnings in line with expectations in Q1 2025, and if the trend of profit growth continues, it could signify a clearer turning point for the market [4] Government Intervention - Current margin financing balances exceed 2 trillion yuan (approximately 290 billion USD), but the proportion of free-float market value is slightly below the ten-year average, suggesting a lower likelihood of strong government intervention in the short term [5] - Morgan Stanley maintains an "overweight" rating on A-shares since June, expecting continued outperformance compared to offshore markets [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market showed significant cooling in July, with employment growth slowing sharply and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [1] Employment Data - Non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000 in July, significantly below the expected increase of 110,000 [1] - The June employment figure was revised down from an initial estimate of 147,000 to just 14,000 [1] Unemployment Rate - The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% in June to 4.2% in July, indicating a deterioration in the labor market [1] Federal Reserve Response - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50% [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's comments after the decision diminished market expectations for a return to policy easing in September [1] - Powell described the labor market as being in a "balanced state" with synchronized declines in supply and demand, but acknowledged the dynamic suggests "downside risks" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in 2025 is experiencing uncertainty, with key figures like Jack Ma and Wang Shi providing insights that suggest a potential turning point in July, indicating a cautious optimism for market recovery [1][3][6] Group 1: Market Adjustment and Recovery - Both Ma and Wang agree that the market has undergone a significant adjustment period, with Ma stating that the adjustment is nearing its end and Wang noting that the market is in a phase of adjustment [3][5] - They emphasize that the potential for further significant declines in the market is limited, with a focus on stability being the prevailing theme [3][5] Group 2: Policy Impact - Both figures express optimism regarding the future effects of policy changes, with Ma predicting a more relaxed policy environment in the second half of the year and Wang highlighting the importance of policy effects becoming evident after July [5][6] - Recent government measures aimed at ensuring housing delivery, optimizing purchase restrictions, and lowering down payments and interest rates are seen as critical support for their market outlook [5] Group 3: Housing as a Necessity - Ma stresses the need for real estate to return to its fundamental role as housing, while Wang warns that any market recovery should not revert to previous high-growth patterns, aligning with the national stance of "housing is for living, not for speculation" [5][6] - This shift indicates that the previous investment-driven logic based on soaring property prices is no longer viable, with future market dynamics expected to be driven by residential demand [5][6] Group 4: Buyer Guidance - For potential homebuyers, those with genuine housing needs and financial capability may find it a suitable time to enter the market, while investors should remain cautious and avoid unrealistic expectations of price surges [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is experiencing significant growth, with the Bank AH Preferred ETF (517900) reaching a historical high, driven by policy easing expectations and strong market demand for bank fundamentals [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 8, the Bank AH Preferred ETF (517900) has increased by 0.18%, marking its third consecutive rise [1] - Over the past 10 days, the ETF has risen by 2.67%, and by 6.98% over the last 20 days, with a year-to-date increase of 26.53% [1] - The trading volume is active, with a transaction amount of approximately 26 million, and the fund's size has grown by 590.69% this year, exceeding 700 million, setting a new historical high [1] Group 2: Investment Insights - The growth in the banking sector is attributed to a combination of liquidity easing and valuation recovery logic, with high dividend stocks expected to maintain strong performance [1] - The index for the Bank AH Preferred ETF had a dividend yield of 5.92% as of the end of May, reflecting a strategy of selecting undervalued stocks [1] - Investors can access this ETF through linked funds (Class A: 016572; Class C: 016573) [1] Group 3: Future Considerations - In the short term, liquidity easing and valuation recovery will likely dominate the sector's performance [1] - In the medium to long term, attention should be paid to economic transformation and industry differentiation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the mixed performance of the US stock market, highlighting the impact of large technology stocks on market declines while cyclical sectors like energy and materials showed strength [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On the trading day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 400.17 points, or 0.91%, closing at 44,494.94 points, while the S&P 500 index fell by 6.94 points, or 0.11%, to 6,198.01 points, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 166.85 points, or 0.82%, to 20,202.89 points [1]. - The market showed significant sector divergence, with energy, materials, and industrial sectors leading, while technology and consumer discretionary sectors lagged [1]. - The Dow Jones Transportation Index surged by 2.9%, marking its largest single-day gain since mid-May, indicating cautious optimism regarding economic prospects [1]. Group 2: Technology Sector - Technology stocks were the main contributors to the market decline, particularly momentum stocks that had previously seen significant gains, leading to concentrated sell-offs [1]. - Tesla's stock fell by 5.4%, reaching a three-week low, following President Trump's comments about potentially terminating federal subsidies for Musk's companies, raising concerns about policy risks [1][2]. - Nvidia and Netflix saw declines of over 2% and 3%, respectively, while Apple managed a 1% increase, indicating mixed performance within the tech sector [2]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The US Senate passed a large tax and spending bill pushed by Trump, which, despite raising concerns about deficits, is expected to inject some policy easing into the market [3]. - The US job openings unexpectedly rose in May, indicating resilience in the labor market [3]. - The ISM reported that the manufacturing PMI for June increased from 48.5 to 49.0, slightly above market expectations, suggesting stabilization in manufacturing activity, although it remains in contraction territory [3]. Group 4: Commodities - Precious metals saw a general increase due to a decline in the dollar and heightened risk aversion, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.27% to $3,349.8 per ounce, setting a new historical high [4]. - Crude oil prices experienced slight increases, with WTI and Brent crude rising by 0.52% and 0.55%, respectively, closing at $65.45 and $67.11 per barrel, as the market awaits new supply guidance from OPEC [4].