北京时间周四(11月27日)亚盘时段，美元指数交投于99.466附近，现货白银今日开盘于53.31美元/盎司， 目前交投于53.16美元/盎司附近，白银t+d交投于12396元/千克附近，沪银主力交投于12430元/千克附 近。今日基本面关注欧洲央行公布10月货币政策会议纪要。 周三(11月26日)美元指数下跌0.24%，收报99.569，现货白银收报53.31美元/盎司，上涨3.60%，由于市 场对美联储在下月会议上降息的预期进一步增强，现货白银价格涨势显著，大幅走高，现货黄金再创一 周多新高：现货黄金上涨0.79%，报4162.35美元/盎司，现货铂金收涨2.18%，报1588.15美元/盎司；现 货钯金收涨2.59%，至1427.00元/盎司。 【最新数据一览】 SLV白银ETF持仓15582.33吨，较前一交易日持平； 3.美联储褐皮书显示，近几周美国经济活动基本不变，除高端消费群体外，整体消费者支出进一步下 滑。这份褐皮书指出，美国就业市场小幅走弱，物价水平保持温和上涨。 【最新白银行情解析】 白银市场昨日开盘在51.422的位置后行情先回落给出51.264的位置后行情强势震荡拉升，日线最高触及 到 ...

Core Insights - The current trading environment for silver shows significant volatility, with prices fluctuating between $47.88 and $49.31 per ounce, indicating a potential for both upward and downward movements in the near term [1][5]. Market Data - As of October 23, 2025, the latest prices for silver are as follows: - Spot silver: $49.26 per ounce - Silver T+D: ¥11,463 per kilogram - Paper silver: ¥11.288 per gram - Shanghai silver futures: ¥11,467 per kilogram [2]. Economic Analysis - The U.S. September CPI data is expected to show a growth rate similar to August, with energy prices rising by 0.7% in August and likely continuing to increase in September. Core CPI is projected to reach a monthly rate of 0.3%, rounding to 0.4%, with both overall and core CPI annual rates close to 3.0%, exceeding the Federal Reserve's target by one percentage point [3]. - The Federal Reserve has lost access to timely employment data from ADP, which has historically provided a comprehensive dataset covering 20% of the private sector workforce. This loss may impact the Fed's ability to gauge the labor market accurately [3][4]. Trading Strategy - Silver prices have shown slight upward movement due to stable support at $47.80, with bullish momentum indicated by the relative strength index. However, prices remain under negative pressure due to trading below the 50-day EMA, suggesting a potential for a sharp bearish correction in the short term [5]. - Key resistance levels for silver are identified at $50.00 and $49.00, while support levels are at $46.00 and $45.00 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of silver prices and the implications of the Federal Reserve's recent decisions on interest rates, highlighting the potential for further rate cuts and their impact on the silver market [3][4]. Silver Price Summary - As of October 9, 2025, the spot silver price is $49.49 per ounce, with a trading range of $48.42 to $49.51 during the day [1][2]. - The silver T+D price is 11,179 yuan per kilogram, and paper silver is priced at 11.338 yuan per gram [2]. Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate a division among officials regarding future interest rate cuts, with a majority supporting at least two more cuts this year [3]. - Some officials believe there was no need for the recent rate cut, while others support maintaining current rates, reflecting challenges in building consensus [3]. - Investors anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming October meeting, as indicated by the general sentiment among officials [3]. Labor Market Concerns - Federal Reserve official Williams expressed concerns about the slowing labor market and its implications for future rate cuts, despite inflation not being as severe as earlier in the year [4]. - He emphasized the need to prevent further deterioration in the labor market, suggesting that if inflation rises to around 3% and unemployment slightly increases, he would support lowering rates [4]. Silver Trading Strategy - The silver price has shown bullish momentum, with a potential breakout above $49.55 leading to targets of $50.50 to $51.00 [4]. - Conversely, if the price falls below the support level of $48.50, it could decline to $48.00 or even $47.50 [4]. - The overall market shows resistance near historical highs, with key support and resistance levels being crucial for future price movements [4].

北京时间周二（9月30日）欧盘时段，美元指数交投于97.75附近，现货白银目前交投于46.03美元/盎 司，今日开盘于46.90美元/盎司，截至发稿白银价格最高上探47.16美元/盎司，最低触及46.00美元/盎 司。今晚关注美国8月JOLTs职位空缺。 美国劳工统计局发布政府停摆应急计划，将在政府停摆期间暂停所有运营，不发布经济数据。 俄罗斯周一表示，其军方正在分析美国是否会向乌克兰提供战斧巡航导弹，用于深入俄罗斯的打击。俄 罗斯官员补充说，此举可能会引发急剧升级，保持地缘政治风险，并使白银受益。 与此同时，特朗普表示，在发布20点计划后，美国非常接近在加沙战争中实现和平。特朗普还向巴勒斯 坦组织哈马斯发出警告，如果以色列拒绝和平协议，它将得到美国的全力支持来摧毁这个激进组织。 今日白银价格最新查询（2025年9月30日） | 名称 | 最新价 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 现货白银 | 46.03 | 美元/盎司 | | 白银t+d | 10848 | 元/千克 | | 纸白银 | 10.524 | 元/克 | | 沪银主力 | 10918 | 元/千克 | 【基本面解析】 美 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the potential for a peace agreement regarding the Gaza conflict, as indicated by President Trump's statement that Prime Minister Netanyahu has accepted his proposed plan [1] - The discussions in Congress are focused on avoiding a government shutdown, with significant divisions noted between the Democratic and Republican parties [2][3] - If a budget agreement is not reached by the end of the week, many federal departments will face operational pauses, affecting the release of key economic data [3] Group 2 - Gold prices surged due to rising risk aversion linked to the potential government shutdown, with international spot gold reaching approximately $3,833, marking an increase of nearly $80 in a single day [4] - The main drivers for gold's price increase include expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, risks of a government shutdown, and ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between Russia and Ukraine [5] - The gold market is currently experiencing strong bullish momentum, with expectations for further price increases if the government shutdown occurs [7] Group 3 - Silver prices are also reaching new highs, with international silver peaking at around $47.17, indicating a strong bullish trend in the silver market [10] - The silver market is characterized as being in a super bull market phase, with a focus on maintaining long positions while avoiding chasing prices at high levels [10]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing upward momentum, supported by expectations of monetary policy easing and safe-haven demand due to potential U.S. government shutdown risks. Group 1: Silver Price Movements - As of September 29, the spot silver price is trading at $46.92 per ounce, with a daily high of $47.17 and a low of $45.92 [1] - The silver price opened at $46.07 per ounce today [1] - The latest prices for various silver products include: - Silver T+D at 10,878 yuan per kilogram - Paper silver at 10.741 yuan per gram - Shanghai silver futures at 10,939 yuan per kilogram [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. core PCE price index for August shows a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, consistent with the previous value, while the month-on-month increase is 0.2% [3] - The overall PCE price index rose by 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, up from 2.6% previously [3] - The U.S. consumer confidence index for September is reported at 55.1, a decline of approximately 5% from August [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Expectations - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in October is 10.7%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 89.3% [3] - For December, the probability of maintaining rates is 2.9%, with cumulative probabilities for rate cuts of 25 basis points at 32.2% and 50 basis points at 64.9% [3] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Strategies - The silver market is supported by safe-haven demand as traders prepare for potential U.S. government shutdown risks [3] - Short-term trading strategies suggest maintaining a bullish stance on silver, with key support levels at $45.50 and $45.00, and resistance levels at $47.00 and $48.00 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent movements in the silver market and the impact of U.S. political developments on commodity prices, particularly silver and gold, amid rising government shutdown risks and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Market Overview - The U.S. dollar index is trading around 97.74, while spot silver opened at $43.06 per ounce and is currently around $43.13 per ounce. The silver T+D is trading at approximately 10,193 yuan per kilogram, and the main Shanghai silver contract is around 10,250 yuan per kilogram [1]. - Last Friday, the dollar index rose by 0.30% to close at 97.66, while spot silver increased by 3.05% to close at $43.07 per ounce. This surge was attributed to the failure of the Republican funding bill, raising the risk of a government shutdown [1]. Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve officials, including Governor Milan, indicated that further interest rate cuts are likely in the coming months, with a focus on addressing rising unemployment risks. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari suggested that two more rate cuts this year would be appropriate if the labor market weakens more than expected [3]. Silver Market Analysis - The silver market opened last week at $42.17, experienced a low of $41.10, and reached a high of $43.095 before closing at $43.049. The market showed a long lower shadow hammer candlestick pattern, suggesting potential bullish sentiment [5]. - Current trading strategies include holding long positions with stop-loss orders set at $42.4, targeting levels of $43.1, $43.3, and $43.5 [5]. ETF Holdings - The SLV silver ETF holds 15,205.14 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [2].

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures showed a downward trend on September 18, with SHFE gold quoted at 824.54 CNY per gram, down 1.70%, and SHFE silver at 9823.00 CNY per kilogram, down 2.06% [1] - International precious metals also declined, with COMEX gold priced at 3670.30 CNY per ounce, down 0.66%, and COMEX silver at 41.65 USD per ounce, down 0.82% [1] - The opening prices for SHFE gold and silver were 835.34 CNY per gram and 9924.00 CNY per kilogram, respectively, with the highest prices reaching 839.00 CNY and 10009.00 CNY [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, with projections indicating two more rate cuts this year, which is an increase from the previous forecast [3] - There was a contradiction in the Fed's statements, acknowledging a weakening labor market while also predicting rising inflation, leading to market volatility [3] - Following the Fed's dovish statement, U.S. Treasury yields initially fell, with the 10-year yield dropping below 4%, but later surged after Chairman Powell's remarks, increasing by 6.3 basis points [3] Group 3 - COMEX gold experienced significant volatility, closing at 3694.6 USD per ounce, down 0.82%, while SHFE gold closed at 832.64 CNY per gram, down 0.76% [4] - The price of gold reached new highs during the session but fell over 60 USD as the dollar strengthened, indicating weakened upward momentum for gold prices [4] - The market is expected to continue a high-level consolidation phase due to the hawkish tone of Powell's speech [4]

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures showed a positive trend on September 16, with SHFE gold quoted at 840.86 CNY per gram, up 1.00%, and SHFE silver at 10109.00 CNY per kilogram, up 0.81% [1] - International precious metal prices were mixed, with COMEX gold at 3726.50 CNY per ounce, up 0.19%, while COMEX silver was at 43.20 USD per ounce, down 0.01% [1][2] - The opening prices for SHFE gold and silver were 833.48 CNY and 10020.00 CNY per kilogram, respectively, with their highest prices reaching 842.20 CNY and 10152.00 CNY [2] Group 2 - The New York Fed manufacturing index for September recorded -8.7, significantly below the expected value of 5 and the previous value of 11.9, indicating negative growth [3] - This negative data supports expectations for a preventive interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the market focusing on the Fed's interest rate path and the ongoing AI trend [3] - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut, and if the actual cut exceeds expectations or if the Fed provides a more dovish outlook, gold prices may continue to rise [4]

Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has reached a basic framework consensus with the U.S. to address the TikTok issue, reduce investment barriers, and promote economic and trade cooperation [1] - A U.S. appeals court has denied President Trump's request to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, marking the first time a president has attempted such an action since the Fed's establishment in 1913 [2] - The New York Fed's manufacturing index for September recorded -8.7, indicating a contraction in industry activity, which is significantly below expectations [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut in its upcoming meeting, with market focus on future interest rate paths and economic expectations [2] - Gold prices have surged, reaching a historical high of $3,674 per ounce, driven by poor manufacturing data and increased rate cut expectations [4][6] - The domestic gold futures in China have also hit a record high, with the main contract peaking above 8,420 yuan per kilogram [2]