北京时间周二(8月26日)亚盘时段，美元指数交投于98.25附近，现货白银今日开盘于38.56美元/盎司，目 前交投于38.72美元/盎司附近，白银t+d交投于9338元/千克附近，沪银主力交投于9366元/千克附近。今 日基本面关注美国8月谘商会消费者信心指数，美国8月里奇蒙德联储制造业指数。 周一(8月25日)美元指数上涨0.73%，收报98.43，现货白银收报38.55美元/盎司，下跌0.69%，由于市场 对降息前景的乐观情绪有所平息，美元指数反弹，现货白银大幅度回落，现货黄金也在接近15美元的狭 窄区间内横盘震荡：现货黄金下跌0.17%，报3365.95美元/盎司，现货铂金收跌1.54%，报1340.75美元/ 盎司；现货钯金收跌2.77%，至1094.93元/盎司。 【最新数据一览】 SLV白银ETF持仓15288.82吨，较前一交易日持平； 白银市场昨日开盘在38.87的位置后先拉升给出日线高点38.991的位置后行情强势震荡回落，日线最低给 到了38.524的位置后行情整理，日线最终收线在了38.543的位置后，日线以一根上影线较长的中阴线收 线，而这样的形态收尾后，上周五37.8的多减仓后止损 ...

北京时间周一(8月25日)亚盘时段，美元指数交投于97.91附近，现货白银今日开盘于38.89美元/盎司，目 前交投于38.90美元/盎司附近，白银t+d交投于9345元/千克附近，沪银主力交投于9382元/千克附近。今 日基本面关注美国8月达拉斯联储商业活动指数。 【最新白银行情解析】 白银市场上周开盘在37.937的位置后行情先拉升给出38.273的位置后行情强势震荡回落，周线最低给到 了36.93的位置后行情强势拉升，周线最高触及到了39.058的位置后行情整理，周线最终收线在了38.895 的位置后，周线以一根下影线极长的大阳线收线，而这样的形态收尾后，本周延续多，点位上，上周五 37.8的多减仓后止损跟进在38持有，今日38.5多止损38.3，目标看39和39.3和39.5-39.7。 上周五(8月22日)美元指数下跌0.95%，收报97.71，现货白银收报38.82美元/盎司，上涨1.81%，由于鲍 威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上的讲话提振了市场对9月降息的预期，现货白银直线走高，现货黄金也随之直 线拉升：现货黄金上涨1.00%，报3371.69美元/盎司，现货铂金收涨0.60%，报1361.75美元/盎 ...

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures showed mixed results on August 22, with Shanghai gold futures at 773.12 CNY per gram, down 0.39%, and Shanghai silver futures at 9200.00 CNY per kilogram, up 0.45% [1] - International precious metals futures were all in the red, with COMEX gold priced at 3369.40 CNY per ounce, down 0.42%, and COMEX silver at 37.97 USD per ounce, down 0.35% [1] - The opening prices for Shanghai gold and silver were 776.00 CNY per gram and 9187.00 CNY per kilogram, respectively, with their highest prices reaching 777.22 CNY and 9254.00 CNY [2] Group 2 - As of the week ending August 16, initial jobless claims increased by 11,000 to 235,000, marking the largest increase since late May [3] - The probability of maintaining interest rates in September is 25%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 75% [3] - Market expectations suggest that cumulative rate cuts of 25 basis points have a probability of 51.5% by October, with a 35.3% chance for a cumulative cut of 50 basis points [3] Group 3 - On August 21, COMEX gold prices fell by 0.15% to 3383.50 USD per ounce, while Shanghai gold futures dropped by 0.01% to 776.08 CNY per gram [4] - The ongoing tariff policies and rising inflation pressures are expected to persist, influencing market sentiment regarding potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] - Attention is focused on the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium, which may impact rate cut expectations for the year [4]

Core Points - The US dollar index is trading around 98.50, while spot silver opened at $37.60/oz and is currently around $37.82/oz, indicating a slight increase [1] - On August 11, the dollar index rose by 0.24% to close at 98.50, while spot silver fell by 1.89% to $37.60/oz due to a slight increase in the dollar index and a minor rise in US Treasury yields [1] - Spot gold experienced a significant drop of nearly $60, closing down 1.66% at $3342.20/oz, while platinum and palladium saw slight increases [1] Market Data - As of August 11, COMEX silver inventory stands at 15,752.11 tons, down by 1.58 tons from the previous trading day [2] - SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 67.8 tons to 15,058.6 tons [2] - The payment direction for the Ag(T+D) contract indicates that shorts are paying longs [2] Economic Insights - Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjarto raised concerns about the US-EU trade agreement, highlighting uncertainties regarding implementation and payment responsibilities [3] - Bank of America advised the Federal Reserve to refrain from early rate cuts, citing persistent inflation above the 2% target and potential risks associated with recent tariff increases [3] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 14.1%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut is 85.9% [4]

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures showed a positive trend on August 8, with Shanghai gold futures priced at 788.04 CNY per gram, an increase of 0.59%, and Shanghai silver futures at 9264.00 CNY per kilogram, up by 0.68% [1] - International precious metal prices were mixed, with COMEX gold priced at 3497.10 USD per ounce, up by 0.41%, while COMEX silver was at 38.51 USD per ounce, down by 0.05% [1] - The opening prices for Shanghai gold and silver futures were 784.18 CNY and 9275.00 CNY per kilogram, respectively, with the highest prices reaching 788.36 CNY and 9318.00 CNY [2] Group 2 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen criticized the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions as lacking logic, while Fed official Bostic indicated that dissenting opinions at future meetings would not be surprising given the current complexities [3] - The latest CME "FedWatch" data shows a 7.3% probability of maintaining interest rates in September, a 92.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut, and a 2.5% chance of holding rates steady in October, with cumulative probabilities for cuts of 25 and 50 basis points at 36.1% and 61.5%, respectively [3] - On August 7, COMEX gold prices rose by 1.44% to 3482.70 USD per ounce, while Shanghai gold futures increased by 0.26% to 785.44 CNY per gram, driven by market expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September and October [4]

Market Overview - Domestic precious metal futures showed mixed results on August 7, with Shanghai gold futures at 783.72 CNY per gram, down 0.08%, and Shanghai silver futures at 9192.00 CNY per kilogram, up 1.29% [1] - International precious metals also displayed mixed performance, with COMEX gold priced at 3430.80 USD per ounce, down 0.12%, while COMEX silver was at 38.24 USD per ounce, up 0.80% [1] Price Data - The opening, highest, and lowest prices for key precious metals on August 7 were as follows: - Shanghai Gold: Opened at 782.28 CNY, peaked at 785.00 CNY, and bottomed at 781.08 CNY per gram [2] - Shanghai Silver: Opened at 9163.00 CNY, peaked at 9244.00 CNY, and bottomed at 9155.00 CNY per kilogram [2] - COMEX Gold: Opened at 3431.80 USD, peaked at 3449.00 USD, and bottomed at 3430.00 USD per ounce [2] - COMEX Silver: Opened at 37.94 USD, peaked at 38.24 USD, and bottomed at 37.94 USD per ounce [2] Economic Factors - The U.S. Treasury auctioned 42 billion USD of 10-year bonds, with a bid yield of 4.255%, the lowest since December of the previous year, indicating weak buyer demand, particularly from international buyers [3] - The auction results led to a rise in bond yields and a decline in the dollar index, which supported gold prices [3] - Federal Reserve Governor Cook's comments on non-farm payroll data adjustments heightened market expectations for potential changes in monetary policy [3] Market Sentiment - On August 6, COMEX gold experienced high volatility, closing at 3431.8 USD per ounce, down 0.08%, while domestic SHFE gold closed at 781.96 CNY per gram, down 0.29% [4] - The market sentiment is leaning towards a dovish outlook, suggesting that gold prices may continue to rise in the short term, especially if trade negotiations do not yield expected results [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the silver market, highlighting price movements and the implications of recent Federal Reserve decisions on economic outlook and monetary policy [1][3][4]. Market Overview - As of August 4, 2025, the spot silver price is at $37.34 per ounce, with a trading range between $36.66 and $37.39 during the day [1][2]. - The silver market is experiencing fluctuations, with key support levels identified at $36.75 and $36.55, and resistance levels at $37.20 and $37.50 [5]. Federal Reserve Insights - The dissenting votes from Fed governors Bowman and Waller mark a significant internal division within the Federal Reserve, the first of its kind since late 1993, indicating differing views on employment and economic forecasts [3]. - Cleveland Fed President Mester expresses confidence in the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates, despite disappointing employment data, emphasizing the need to monitor future employment figures and inflation [3]. Political Influence - Former President Trump’s criticism of Fed Chair Powell and calls for significant interest rate cuts add complexity to the Fed's policy discussions, although internal Fed responses have been largely dismissive [4]. - The dynamics within the Fed, including potential future leadership changes, are influenced by these political pressures, but the overall policy direction remains focused on inflation concerns stemming from trade policies [4]. Technical Analysis - The technical outlook for silver suggests a cautious approach, with the price remaining below a recently broken upward channel, indicating a neutral to bearish sentiment [5]. - Key indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Average Directional Index (ADX) suggest a weak trend, with potential for consolidation in the short term [5].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic precious metal futures market is experiencing a decline, while international precious metals are showing slight gains, indicating mixed market sentiment influenced by external economic factors [1][3]. Domestic Precious Metals Market - As of July 28, the main contract for Shanghai gold is priced at 773.64 CNY per gram, down 0.48%, and Shanghai silver is at 9186.00 CNY per kilogram, down 1.98% [1]. - The opening price for Shanghai gold was 772.82 CNY, with a high of 775.84 CNY and a low of 770.58 CNY [2]. - The market is showing a bearish trend, with the recent price movements reflecting a lack of strong upward momentum [5]. International Precious Metals Market - COMEX gold is priced at 3342.00 USD per ounce, up 0.10%, and COMEX silver at 38.40 USD per ounce, up 0.18% [1]. - The opening price for COMEX gold was 3321.10 USD, with a high of 3344.00 USD and a low of 3303.00 USD [2]. Market Influences - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is creating uncertainty, with traders speculating on potential rate cuts, which may be suppressing gold prices [3]. - Recent data from the CFTC shows a significant increase in gold and silver positions, indicating growing interest in these assets despite current price declines [3]. - The U.S. labor market remains strong, as evidenced by a decrease in unemployment claims, which may influence the Fed's decision on interest rates [4]. Technical Analysis - COMEX gold has seen a decline for three consecutive days, closing at 3338.5 USD per ounce, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the market [5]. - The market is characterized by a lack of consensus on key factors such as tariff policies and the potential for Fed rate cuts, leading to increased volatility [5]. - Silver is supported by the performance of gold and expectations of a return to a favorable gold-silver ratio, making it an attractive investment option [6].

Report Title - Weekly Report on Precious Metals (AU, AG): Safe-Haven Demand Cools, Pressuring Gold and Silver [1] Report Date - July 28, 2025 [2] Report Author - Bai Suna [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - With Trump announcing trade agreements with more countries, global trade tensions ease, reducing safe-haven demand and pressuring precious metal prices. Monitor the progress of US-EU negotiations and China-US-Sweden economic and trade talks, and beware of tariff policy fluctuations as the August 1 tariff suspension period ends [5] - The ECB kept interest rates unchanged in July and the probability of a September rate cut decreased, indicating the end of the ECB's easing cycle. The Fed is also likely to keep rates unchanged in July, temporarily suppressing precious metal prices. Trump's pressure on the Fed to cut rates continues, but the dollar credit risk is alleviated, weakening gold's short-term upward drive. However, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September is over 60%, providing medium-term support for gold prices. Focus on key US economic data this week [5] - In the first half of the week, the commodity trading limit-up atmosphere boosted Shanghai silver to break through the 9,500 yuan/kg mark. But as gold weakened and commodities tumbled on Friday night, silver prices were dragged down. As the irrational commodity rally subsides, silver's short-term resilience may weaken, and it is expected to return to fundamental logic in the medium term [5] - Strategy: Buy gold on dips; stay on the sidelines for silver [5] - Long-term view: Bullish. With the Fed likely to cut rates in the second half of the year, global geopolitical tensions remaining complex, de-globalization intensifying, and the weakening of the US dollar credit, central banks will continue to be net buyers of gold, providing long-term support for gold prices [5] Summary by Directory 1. Market and Fundamental Indicator Tracking Gold and Silver Prices and Gold-Silver Ratio - London spot gold was at $3,336.22/oz, down $13.435 (-0.40%) from the previous week; Shanghai gold futures were at 777.32 yuan/g, up 0.3 yuan (0.04%) [4] - London spot silver was at $38.137/oz, down $0.01 (-0.03%) from the previous week; Shanghai silver futures were at 9,392 yuan/kg, up 119 yuan (1.28%) [4] - SHFE gold-silver ratio was 82.76, down 1.03 (-1.23%) from the previous week [4] ETF and CFTC Positions - Gold SPDR-ETF holdings were 957.09 tons, up 13.47 tons (1.43%) from the previous week [4] - COMEX gold non-commercial net long positions (lagging one week) were 253,038 contracts, up 39,923 contracts (18.73%) from the previous week [4] - Silver SLV-ETF holdings were 15,230 tons, up 572 tons (3.90%) from the previous week [4] - COMEX silver non-commercial net long positions (lagging one week) were 60,620 contracts, up 1,172 contracts (1.97%) from the previous week [4] Inventory Data - SHFE gold inventory was 30.258 tons, up 1.4 tons (4.85%) from the previous week; COMEX gold inventory was 1,174.54 tons, up 17.74 tons (1.53%) from the previous week [4] - SHFE silver inventory was 1,187 tons, down 23.82 tons (-1.97%) from the previous week; COMEX silver inventory was 15,562 tons, up 95.7 tons (0.62%) from the previous week; SGE silver inventory (lagging one week) was 1,312 tons, down 15.21 tons (-1.15%) from the previous week [4] 2. Main Macroeconomic Indicator Tracking Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - The US dollar index was 97.6701, down 0.7899 (-0.80%) from the previous week; the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.1681, down 0.0129 (-0.18%) from the previous week [4] - The 2-year US Treasury yield was 3.9275%, up 0.0647 (1.67%) from the previous week; the 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.3878%, down 0.0217 (-0.49%) from the previous week; the US 10-year real interest rate was 1.96%, down 0.07 (-3.45%) from the previous week [4] Economic Data - The US first-quarter GDP growth rate unexpectedly contracted; the consumer confidence index improved for the first time in half a year [59] - The US manufacturing PMI and service PMI were better than expected; the US retail sales data showed positive trends [60] - The US June non-farm payrolls were higher than expected, and the unemployment rate declined [66] - Inflation in the US rebounded slightly, but inflation expectations cooled [73] - The eurozone GDP bottomed out and rebounded; the eurozone manufacturing PMI rebounded, while the service PMI declined [82] Central Bank Gold Purchases - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves for the eighth consecutive month, with 73.9 million ounces at the end of June, a month-on-month increase of 700,000 ounces (about 2.18 tons) [91] - Global central banks remained net buyers of gold. In the first quarter of 2025, global central banks and other institutions net-purchased 243.7 tons of gold, a year-on-year decrease of about 21.4%. Despite the decline in the first quarter, the overall performance remained strong, and global central banks were expected to continue net-purchasing gold [91]

Market Overview - The US dollar index is trading around 97.51, while spot silver opened at $38.04/oz and is currently around $38.28/oz. Silver T+D is trading at approximately 9181 CNY/kg, and the main Shanghai silver contract is around 9209 CNY/kg [1] - Last Friday, the US dollar index rose by 0.19% to close at 97.67, while spot silver fell by 2.26% to $38.14/oz. The decline in silver was attributed to progress in US-EU trade negotiations, which reduced safe-haven demand [1] Silver Market Data - The SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 22.61 tons to a total of 15,230.43 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - On July 25, the compensation fee payment direction for Ag (T+D) was in favor of longs [2] Trade Agreements and Tariffs - President Trump announced a trade agreement with the EU, which includes a 15% tariff, $600 billion in US investments, and zero tariffs from EU countries on US goods. However, there is ambiguity regarding whether the 15% tariff covers pharmaceuticals and steel/aluminum [3] - The US Commerce Secretary stated that the deadline for tariff increases on August 1 will not be extended, and a decision on chip tariffs will be made within two weeks [4] Silver Market Analysis - The silver market opened last week at $38.108, experienced a slight pullback to $38.061, and then surged to a weekly high of $39.523 before retreating. The weekly low was $37.923, and it closed at $38.163, forming a long upper shadow shooting star pattern, indicating potential bearish sentiment for the upcoming week [5] Upcoming Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators to watch include the UK CBI retail sales balance at 18:00, the OPEC+ ministerial monitoring committee meeting at 20:00, and the US Dallas Fed business activity index at 22:30 [6]