但纪要也指出，少数官员认为上月没有必要降息，或者他们也可以支持维持利率不变。在参加会议的19 名官员中，略多于半数预计今年至少还会有两次降息，这意味着美联储可能在本月和12月的会议上连续 降息。但有7名官员预计今年不会再有进一步降息，凸显出鲍威尔在建立共识时面临的棘手局面。通常 来说，美联储纪要因三周的发布时间差而显得"滞后"，但政府停摆使美联储官员缺乏足够的新信息来显 著调整他们的观点。投资者普遍预计，美联储将在10月的下次会议上再次降息25个基点。 【基本面解析】 美联储会议纪要显示，美联储官员在上月批准今年首次降息时，对未来应将利率降至何种水平存在分 歧。官员们普遍同意，就业增长近期放缓的迹象超过了对顽固通胀的担忧，因此在上月降息25个基点。 根据纪要，大多数官员认为"在今年剩余时间里进一步放松政策可能是合适的"。 北京时间周四（10月9日）欧盘时段，美元指数交投于99.00附近，现货白银目前交投于49.49美元/盎 司，今日开盘于48.88美元/盎司，截至发稿白银价格最高上探49.51美元/盎司，最低触及48.42美元/盎 司。今晚关注美联储主席鲍威尔发表讲话与美联储理事鲍曼发表讲话。 今日白银价格最 ...

北京时间周二（9月30日）欧盘时段，美元指数交投于97.75附近，现货白银目前交投于46.03美元/盎 司，今日开盘于46.90美元/盎司，截至发稿白银价格最高上探47.16美元/盎司，最低触及46.00美元/盎 司。今晚关注美国8月JOLTs职位空缺。 美国劳工统计局发布政府停摆应急计划，将在政府停摆期间暂停所有运营，不发布经济数据。 俄罗斯周一表示，其军方正在分析美国是否会向乌克兰提供战斧巡航导弹，用于深入俄罗斯的打击。俄 罗斯官员补充说，此举可能会引发急剧升级，保持地缘政治风险，并使白银受益。 与此同时，特朗普表示，在发布20点计划后，美国非常接近在加沙战争中实现和平。特朗普还向巴勒斯 坦组织哈马斯发出警告，如果以色列拒绝和平协议，它将得到美国的全力支持来摧毁这个激进组织。 今日白银价格最新查询（2025年9月30日） | 名称 | 最新价 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 现货白银 | 46.03 | 美元/盎司 | | 白银t+d | 10848 | 元/千克 | | 纸白银 | 10.524 | 元/克 | | 沪银主力 | 10918 | 元/千克 | 【基本面解析】 美 ...

据央视报道，当地时间9月29日，美国总统特朗普与以色列总理内塔尼亚胡举行双边会晤后；特朗普表示，特朗普称，内塔尼亚胡接受了他提出的加沙和平 计划，已非常接近达成协议结束加沙地带冲突。特朗普表示，如果哈马斯接受加沙和平计划，将要求释放所有人质。 黄金行情回顾 受美国政府停摆风险影响，避险情绪高涨；昨日周一（9月29日）国际现货黄金开盘大涨，日内一路走高，站上3800美元大关后贾诩加速，日内大涨接近80 美元，日线以光头大阳线收盘3833美元附近。国际白银延续强势，最高47.17美元后陷入高位震荡，日线以中阳线收盘46.93美元附近。国内沪金主力继续历 史新高，站上860关口加速大涨，目前最高876.82元每克；沪银主力，继续历史新高，最高一度冲破11000元每千克大关，达11008元每千克。 黄金行情 当前影响黄金的主线，美联储降息大门的开启，10月份降息预期的推动；美国政府面临停摆的风险，全球地缘局势，尤其是俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的争端；特 朗普即将实施的行业税收。一系列的风险事件，推动大量资金进入黄金市场，昨日黄金早盘3760区域企稳后快速大涨，刷新历史新高3791美元站稳3800美元 后迎来加速上涨，截止目前 ...

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing upward momentum, supported by expectations of monetary policy easing and safe-haven demand due to potential U.S. government shutdown risks. Group 1: Silver Price Movements - As of September 29, the spot silver price is trading at $46.92 per ounce, with a daily high of $47.17 and a low of $45.92 [1] - The silver price opened at $46.07 per ounce today [1] - The latest prices for various silver products include: - Silver T+D at 10,878 yuan per kilogram - Paper silver at 10.741 yuan per gram - Shanghai silver futures at 10,939 yuan per kilogram [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. core PCE price index for August shows a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, consistent with the previous value, while the month-on-month increase is 0.2% [3] - The overall PCE price index rose by 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, up from 2.6% previously [3] - The U.S. consumer confidence index for September is reported at 55.1, a decline of approximately 5% from August [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Expectations - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in October is 10.7%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 89.3% [3] - For December, the probability of maintaining rates is 2.9%, with cumulative probabilities for rate cuts of 25 basis points at 32.2% and 50 basis points at 64.9% [3] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Strategies - The silver market is supported by safe-haven demand as traders prepare for potential U.S. government shutdown risks [3] - Short-term trading strategies suggest maintaining a bullish stance on silver, with key support levels at $45.50 and $45.00, and resistance levels at $47.00 and $48.00 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent movements in the silver market and the impact of U.S. political developments on commodity prices, particularly silver and gold, amid rising government shutdown risks and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Market Overview - The U.S. dollar index is trading around 97.74, while spot silver opened at $43.06 per ounce and is currently around $43.13 per ounce. The silver T+D is trading at approximately 10,193 yuan per kilogram, and the main Shanghai silver contract is around 10,250 yuan per kilogram [1]. - Last Friday, the dollar index rose by 0.30% to close at 97.66, while spot silver increased by 3.05% to close at $43.07 per ounce. This surge was attributed to the failure of the Republican funding bill, raising the risk of a government shutdown [1]. Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve officials, including Governor Milan, indicated that further interest rate cuts are likely in the coming months, with a focus on addressing rising unemployment risks. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari suggested that two more rate cuts this year would be appropriate if the labor market weakens more than expected [3]. Silver Market Analysis - The silver market opened last week at $42.17, experienced a low of $41.10, and reached a high of $43.095 before closing at $43.049. The market showed a long lower shadow hammer candlestick pattern, suggesting potential bullish sentiment [5]. - Current trading strategies include holding long positions with stop-loss orders set at $42.4, targeting levels of $43.1, $43.3, and $43.5 [5]. ETF Holdings - The SLV silver ETF holds 15,205.14 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [2].

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures showed a downward trend on September 18, with SHFE gold quoted at 824.54 CNY per gram, down 1.70%, and SHFE silver at 9823.00 CNY per kilogram, down 2.06% [1] - International precious metals also declined, with COMEX gold priced at 3670.30 CNY per ounce, down 0.66%, and COMEX silver at 41.65 USD per ounce, down 0.82% [1] - The opening prices for SHFE gold and silver were 835.34 CNY per gram and 9924.00 CNY per kilogram, respectively, with the highest prices reaching 839.00 CNY and 10009.00 CNY [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, with projections indicating two more rate cuts this year, which is an increase from the previous forecast [3] - There was a contradiction in the Fed's statements, acknowledging a weakening labor market while also predicting rising inflation, leading to market volatility [3] - Following the Fed's dovish statement, U.S. Treasury yields initially fell, with the 10-year yield dropping below 4%, but later surged after Chairman Powell's remarks, increasing by 6.3 basis points [3] Group 3 - COMEX gold experienced significant volatility, closing at 3694.6 USD per ounce, down 0.82%, while SHFE gold closed at 832.64 CNY per gram, down 0.76% [4] - The price of gold reached new highs during the session but fell over 60 USD as the dollar strengthened, indicating weakened upward momentum for gold prices [4] - The market is expected to continue a high-level consolidation phase due to the hawkish tone of Powell's speech [4]

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures showed a positive trend on September 16, with SHFE gold quoted at 840.86 CNY per gram, up 1.00%, and SHFE silver at 10109.00 CNY per kilogram, up 0.81% [1] - International precious metal prices were mixed, with COMEX gold at 3726.50 CNY per ounce, up 0.19%, while COMEX silver was at 43.20 USD per ounce, down 0.01% [1][2] - The opening prices for SHFE gold and silver were 833.48 CNY and 10020.00 CNY per kilogram, respectively, with their highest prices reaching 842.20 CNY and 10152.00 CNY [2] Group 2 - The New York Fed manufacturing index for September recorded -8.7, significantly below the expected value of 5 and the previous value of 11.9, indicating negative growth [3] - This negative data supports expectations for a preventive interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the market focusing on the Fed's interest rate path and the ongoing AI trend [3] - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut, and if the actual cut exceeds expectations or if the Fed provides a more dovish outlook, gold prices may continue to rise [4]

Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has reached a basic framework consensus with the U.S. to address the TikTok issue, reduce investment barriers, and promote economic and trade cooperation [1] - A U.S. appeals court has denied President Trump's request to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, marking the first time a president has attempted such an action since the Fed's establishment in 1913 [2] - The New York Fed's manufacturing index for September recorded -8.7, indicating a contraction in industry activity, which is significantly below expectations [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut in its upcoming meeting, with market focus on future interest rate paths and economic expectations [2] - Gold prices have surged, reaching a historical high of $3,674 per ounce, driven by poor manufacturing data and increased rate cut expectations [4][6] - The domestic gold futures in China have also hit a record high, with the main contract peaking above 8,420 yuan per kilogram [2]

Group 1 - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that removing Hamas leadership in Qatar would eliminate a major obstacle to achieving a ceasefire in Gaza [1] - The international community is closely monitoring the situation after a Russian drone unexpectedly entered Polish airspace, a NATO member [1] - The upcoming "central bank super week" will see interest rate decisions from G7 countries, excluding the US Federal Reserve, as well as from Brazil, South Africa, and Norway [1] Group 2 - Gold prices have shown strong bullish momentum, with a rise of over $360 in just four trading weeks, indicating robust demand [2] - The international silver market also saw an upward trend, reaching an annual high of $42.5 [2] - Domestic gold futures in China hit a historical high above 840, while silver futures continue to reach new highs, hovering around the 10,000 mark [2] Group 3 - Gold is currently experiencing high-level fluctuations, with a focus on the direction following a correction, particularly in relation to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [3] - The price range for gold is currently between $3,612 and $3,674, with expectations that $3,674 is not a definitive peak but a temporary high [3] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $3,660-$3,657, with a potential breakout above these levels leading to new highs [5] Group 4 - The market is expected to experience fluctuations, with key resistance levels at $3,657-$3,660 and support at $3,625 and $3,612 [7] - Trading strategies suggest focusing on selling at resistance levels and buying at support levels, with a cautious approach to avoid chasing the market [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the silver market and anticipates a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which could influence silver prices and trading strategies. Market Overview - As of September 12, the silver spot price is trading at $42.33 per ounce, with a daily range between $41.38 and $42.47 [1][2] - The dollar index is around 97.73, indicating a stable dollar environment [1] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a 25 basis point rate cut on September 17 due to clear signals of economic weakness [3] - Despite high inflation, the Fed is likely to prioritize employment risks over price stability, suggesting a shift in monetary policy [3][4] - Key factors that previously drove inflation to 9% in 2022, such as rising oil prices and housing rents, are now subsiding, potentially leading to a decrease in inflation rates by the end of 2026 [3] Trading Strategies for Silver - Technically, silver is near the upper boundary of its upward trend channel, with potential for further gains if it breaks through [5] - The next resistance level is around $42.65, with a possibility of reaching $43.00, which aligns with historical highs from September 2011 [5] - A critical support level is identified at $41.00, which could act as a buying opportunity if prices decline [5][6]