格隆汇1月29日｜路透调查显示，在铜价飙升至历史新高后，分析师首次将2026年铜价一致预期上调至 每吨1.1万美元以上，但对投机过热保持警惕，预计全年均价将显著低于高点。根据31位分析师给出的 中位数预测，2026年LME现货铜均价预计为每吨11,975美元，较去年10月上一轮调查的10,500美元预测 上涨14%。这是路透调查史上最高的年度一致预期，也是首次突破1.1万美元关口。StoneX分析师Natalie Scott-Gray称："我们预计铜价将进入一个新的、更高的常态区间，但从全年角度看，每吨1.3万美元以 上的价格水平难以持续。"分析师将今年全球铜市场的供需缺口一致预期从上一轮调查的15万吨上调至 23.85万吨，预计2027年缺口将收窄至11.6万吨。 ...

Group 1 - Gold has recently reached approximately $3,700 per ounce, driven by safe-haven demand, central bank purchases, and anticipation of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [2] - Analysts are forecasting potential targets of $4,000 and even $5,000 for gold prices [2] - Historical trends indicate that gold is not immune to sharp downturns, raising concerns about a potential market crash [2][8] Group 2 - Historical instances of gold crashes include significant declines after peaks, such as a drop of nearly 65% from $850 in 1980 to below $300 by 1985 [3] - Another example is the decline of over 35% from nearly $1,920 in 2011 to approximately $1,200 by late 2013 [4] - During the pandemic, gold peaked at $2,070 in August 2020 but fell back below $1,700 by early 2021, representing an 18% drop [5] Group 3 - Current gold prices have incorporated an ideal scenario, but signs of potential trouble include a "hawkish cut" from the Fed, a stronger dollar, speculative overheating, and a potential pause in central bank purchases [7][9] - A 20-25% correction could bring gold prices down to $2,800-$3,000 per ounce, while a more severe 35-40% crash could test levels around $2,200-$2,400 per ounce [9]