投融资平衡

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证券|统筹市场投融资改革,逐步走向IPO新常态
中信证券研究· 2025-03-03 00:24
Core Viewpoint - The normalization of IPOs is essential for balancing investment and financing, and it is a necessary reform direction for the capital market to serve the real economy [1] Policy Aspects - Since September 2024, the capital market has shown significant recovery due to the implementation of a new round of reforms and technological breakthroughs by enterprises [2] - The absolute values of various liquidity indicators in the A-share market have reached or approached the levels seen during the 2015 bull market, indicating a restoration of the market's financing capacity [2] Market Aspects - The capital market plays a crucial role in attracting incremental funds and supporting industrial structure transformation through IPOs [3] - The current market capitalization of emerging industries in the A+H market is significantly lower than that of the US market, indicating a need to enhance the scale of IPOs in these sectors [3] Market Outlook - The number of IPOs in the A-share market is expected to increase slightly, with projections suggesting around 150 new listings in 2025 [4] - Based on the average IPO financing scale of 680 million in 2024, the total IPO financing scale in 2025 could reach 1,020 billion [4] Industry Impact - Investment banking revenues are expected to stabilize and recover, with a projected increase of approximately 6 billion in underwriting and sponsorship fees in 2025 [6] - The new regulations on underwriting fees are anticipated to smooth cash flow for investment banks [6] Investment Strategy - The normalization of IPOs is a clear policy direction from regulators, aimed at enhancing the capital market's functionality in serving the real economy [8] - Two main lines of focus for the securities industry include: 1. Leading institutions building international first-class investment banks [8] 2. Mid-sized institutions transitioning to specialized operations [8]