1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of container shipping has reached its peak in January 2026 and entered a downward channel. After the peak of the peak - season cargo volume, major shipping companies have successively reduced spot quotes. The SCFI European line reported $1,595 per TEU as of January 23, 2026, and has been falling for three consecutive weeks. It is expected that the container shipping market will remain in the off - season after the Spring Festival, and the spot price will continue to decline. However, the export tax - rebate policy issued in early January may trigger some photovoltaic enterprises to rush shipments, and attention should be paid to the extent to which the rush shipments in Q1 can delay the decline of spot prices [3][164]. - From the fundamental perspective, on the demand side, the cargo volume has reached its peak and is gradually declining; on the supply side, the weekly average capacity distribution of Shanghai - Nordic 5 ports from January to March 2026 is 289,400/250,700/279,700 TEU. The capacity in January has decreased slightly compared with last week, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.5%. The capacity in February and March has not changed much. The OA alliance has frequently replaced ships [4][164]. - From a traditional seasonal perspective, freight rates usually enter the off - season from February to March. However, after the policy of canceling export tax - rebates for some commodities on April 1st, the market expects a phased rush of shipments. Currently, the rush of shipments is less than expected, and continuous tracking is required. Geopolitically, the situation is volatile, and it is still difficult for a large - scale resumption of flights on the European line in the first half of the year. The risk in the Iranian situation has not been eliminated, and follow - up developments should be monitored [4][164]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - The spot price of container shipping reached its peak in January 2026. After the peak of the peak - season cargo volume, major shipping companies reduced spot quotes, and the spot price entered a rapid downward channel. As of January 23, 2026, the SCFI European line reported $1,595 per TEU, and has been falling for three consecutive weeks. It is expected that the container shipping market will remain in the off - season after the Spring Festival, and the spot price will continue to decline. However, the export tax - rebate policy may trigger some photovoltaic enterprises to rush shipments, and attention should be paid to the extent to which the rush shipments in Q1 can delay the decline of spot prices [3]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - From the fundamental perspective, the demand side shows a decline after the peak of cargo volume, and the supply side has a slight change in capacity. The weekly average capacity distribution of Shanghai - Nordic 5 ports from January to March 2026 is 289,400/250,700/279,700 TEU. The capacity in January has decreased slightly compared with last week, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.5% due to the PA alliance adding a suspended ship and many ship delays at the end of January. The capacity in February and March has not changed much, and the OA alliance has frequently replaced ships. - Seasonally, freight rates usually enter the off - season from February to March. After the policy of canceling export tax - rebates for some commodities on April 1st, the expected phased rush of shipments is less than expected. Geopolitically, the situation is volatile, and it is still difficult for a large - scale resumption of flights on the European line in the first half of the year, and the risk in the Iranian situation has not been eliminated [4]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: For the 04 contract, there are many short - term disturbances, there are still differences in the rush - shipment intensity, and the risk in the Iranian situation has not been eliminated. It is recommended to wait and see for now. If there is a significant increase, the overall idea for the 04 contract is to go short on rallies. - Arbitrage: Hold the 6 - 10 positive spread [6][165]. 3.2 Second Part: Market Review - After the Spring Festival, the spot price reached its peak and entered a downward channel. The 02 contract gradually shifted from trading expectations to following the spot price and maintained a volatile trend. The far - month contracts fluctuated greatly due to factors such as the rush of shipments, the volatile geopolitical situation, and the unclear expectation of the resumption of flights in the Red Sea. Specifically, at the beginning of the month, the market continued to bet on the peak of the peak - season freight rate, and the EC2602 contract soared above 1,950 points. However, as shipping companies gradually reduced spot quotes, the EC2602 contract weakened. The EC2604 contract was affected by the export tax - rebate policy, and the market continued to bet on the future rush - shipment intensity and the spot price reduction rate, maintaining a wide - range volatile trend. The far - month contracts fluctuated greatly due to different statements of major shipping companies on the resumption of flights and the repeated expectation of the resumption of flights in the Red Sea [8]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Situation 3.3.1 Container Shipping Market Enters the Off - Season and Spot Freight Rates Decline - The container shipping market has entered the traditional off - season, and the spot freight rate has entered a downward channel after reaching its peak. The market is still divided on the future rush - shipment intensity. The rush of shipments brought about by the export tax - rebate may delay the decline rate, but it is difficult to reverse the downward trend of the off - season freight rate. At the beginning of the year, MSK's WK4 Shanghai - Rotterdam quote reached $2,800 per HC, the highest point of this peak season. Subsequently, major shipping companies successively reduced spot quotes, and the spot price is still in a downward channel. In late January, the spot freight rate center has dropped to around $2,400 per FEU. The PA alliance has dropped to around $2,200 per FEU at the end of the month, and the OA alliance, although still at a high level, has also dropped to around $2,600 per FEU. In addition, major shipping companies have recently released February spot freight rates, which continue to decline. Considering that the container shipping market will enter the traditional off - season, it is expected that the spot freight rate will continue to decline. Currently, the rush - shipment intensity is less than expected, so attention should be paid to the rush - shipment intensity of the export tax - rebate policy in Q1 and whether it can delay the decline of future spot freight rates [17]. - In terms of the index, the average value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) in January was 1,559.79 points (as of the week of January 23), a month - on - month increase of 2.06% compared with the average value in December last year and a year - on - year decrease of 30.46% compared with the average value in January last year. In the week of January 23, the SCFI container comprehensive freight index reported 1,457.86 points, a month - on - month decrease of 4.83% and a year - on - year decrease of 34.63%. Among them, the freight rate of Shanghai - US West containers was $2,084 per FEU, a month - on - month decrease of 5.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 55.49%; the freight rate of Shanghai - Europe containers reported $1,595 per TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 4.83% and a year - on - year decrease of 34.63% [18]. 3.3.2 Container New - Ship Delivery Volume Increases Significantly at the End of the Year - In December, the global container new - ship delivery volume increased significantly compared with the previous month, reaching 179,300 TEU, a month - on - month increase of 32.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.4%. In terms of new orders, in December 2025, the number of new container orders was 45 ships, with a total of 291,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 41% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.8%. From the current container order structure, ships with a capacity of over 12,000 TEU still dominate, and it is expected that a peak of ship deliveries will occur from 2027 [49]. - As of January 2026, the global container capacity has increased to 33.033 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 7.0%. Among them, the capacity of container ships with a capacity of over 12,000 TEU is 13.139 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 12.9%; the capacity of container ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU is 4.866 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 6.05%; the capacity of container ships with a capacity of over 8,000 TEU is 19.8107 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 10.5%. According to the container delivery forecast schedule (excluding ship dismantling), from 2026, there are about 1.2258 million TEU of 8,000 - TEU + container ships to be delivered in 1 - 12 months, of which the delivery volume of ships with a capacity of over 12,000 TEU is about 975,700 TEU, still dominating [50]. 3.3.3 China's Export Data in December Ended Strongly and the Export Structure Continued to Differentiate - In December, China's exports showed resilience under multiple challenges, and the structural feature of stronger external demand than domestic demand continued. The overall growth exceeded expectations. According to customs data, China's exports in December were $357.8 billion, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.6%. However, the market performance was significantly differentiated. Exports to traditional markets such as the United States continued to be under pressure, while exports to emerging markets such as ASEAN and Africa and some surrounding regions grew strongly. In terms of regions, affected by high - tariff policies, high bases, and the fading of the "rush - export" effect, exports to the United States continued to decline significantly. In December, the decline in exports to the United States widened to 30%. Exports to ASEAN and the EU were still the main supports. In December, exports to the EU increased by 11.6% year - on - year, with the growth rate slowing down compared with the previous month, and the growth rate to ASEAN rebounded to 11.2%, which was a key stabilizer for China's export growth [128]. - In terms of export categories, the export structure showed a significant trend of upgrading towards new and high - tech products. High - tech, electromechanical, and green products were the core growth drivers, while traditional labor - intensive products continued to drag down. Specifically, in December, the growth rate of high - tech products was 16.6%, the export growth rate of electromechanical products was 12.1%, and the export growth rate of labor - intensive products decreased by 8.5% year - on - year. Among them, categories such as clothing, furniture, and toys generally had negative growth and weakened competitiveness [128]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - The spot price of container shipping has reached its peak in January 2026 and entered a downward channel. After the peak of the peak - season cargo volume, major shipping companies have successively reduced spot quotes. It is expected that the container shipping market will remain in the off - season after the Spring Festival, and the spot price will continue to decline. However, the export tax - rebate policy may trigger some photovoltaic enterprises to rush shipments, and attention should be paid to the extent to which the rush shipments in Q1 can delay the decline of spot prices. - From the fundamental perspective, the demand side shows a decline after the peak of cargo volume, and the supply side has a slight change in capacity. The weekly average capacity distribution of Shanghai - Nordic 5 ports from January to March 2026 is 289,400/250,700/279,700 TEU. The capacity in January has decreased slightly compared with last week, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.5%. The capacity in February and March has not changed much. - Seasonally, freight rates usually enter the off - season from February to March. After the policy of canceling export tax - rebates for some commodities on April 1st, the expected phased rush of shipments is less than expected. Geopolitically, the situation is volatile, and it is still difficult for a large - scale resumption of flights on the European line in the first half of the year, and the risk in the Iranian situation has not been eliminated [164]. - Strategy: Unilateral: Wait and see for the 04 contract. Arbitrage: Hold the 6 - 10 positive spread [165].