Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lithium carbonate prices is attributed to multiple factors, with prices breaking through 180,000 yuan/ton and reaching a new high since September 2023, indicating strong market dynamics [1]. Supply Side - The lithium concentrate market remains at high levels, but trading activity is relatively subdued, with traders adopting a cautious stance due to high prices and ample inventory at downstream lithium salt manufacturers [2]. Demand Side - Several factors are driving strong demand for lithium carbonate, including a decline in export tax rebates prompting "export rush" orders from battery manufacturers, which has increased production rates [3]. - Despite some weakness in the domestic automotive market, particularly in new energy vehicle sales, the overall demand remains robust, supported by ongoing high demand in energy storage projects and favorable international policies for electric vehicle exports [3][4]. Inventory Levels - Domestic lithium carbonate inventory is currently below 110,000 tons, indicating a relatively low stock level, which provides price elasticity in response to supply disruptions or demand increases [5][6]. Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience wide fluctuations in lithium carbonate prices, influenced by the balance between high production levels and varying demand from different sectors, particularly energy storage and export markets [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - After the previous panic selling, market sentiment has recovered, and bullish confidence has gradually returned, which is an important reason for the recent rebound of lithium carbonate. Although the demand is in the off - season before the Spring Festival, the expected significant rebound in lithium - battery production in March supports the price increase. Overall, the support of energy - storage demand, the short - term supply tightness, and the strong performance of the non - ferrous metals sector will keep the current price at a high level [1] Market Analysis - On February 12, 2026, the main lithium carbonate contract 2605 opened at 150,000 yuan/ton and closed at 149,420 yuan/ton, with a 3.66% change in the closing price compared to the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 304,798 lots, and the open interest was 353,975 lots (the previous trading day's open interest was 356,531 lots). The current basis is - 5,480 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 37,282 lots, a change of 1,755 lots from the previous trading day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 138,000 - 147,000 yuan/ton, a change of 4,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 135,000 - 143,000 yuan/ton, also a change of 4,500 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 2,005 US dollars/ton, a change of 25 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1] - The spot inventory is 102,932 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,531 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory is 16,920 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,436 tons; the downstream inventory is 44,492 tons, a month - on - month increase of 835 tons; other inventories are 41,520 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,930 tons. In February, the demand market is in the traditional off - season. Although the medium - and long - term expectations for energy - storage demand remain optimistic, and there is "rush - to - export" support due to the adjustment of export tax - rebate policies in the first quarter, the short - term procurement demand has slowed down [2] Strategy - Currently, the price of lithium carbonate fluctuates greatly. With the Spring Festival approaching, attention should be paid to the position - holding risk. Short - term range trading is the main strategy. However, the fundamentals of lithium carbonate are still good. If the price correction is too large, one can consider going long at low prices after the Spring Festival [3] - Unilateral: Short - term range trading. If the correction is large, consider going long at low prices [3] - Inter - period: None [4] - Cross - variety: None [4] - Spot - futures: None [4] - Options: None [4]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a shipping research report released on February 12, 2026, focusing on container shipping, specifically the Container Shipping Index (European Line) [1][2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - EC2604 closed at 1,258.9 points on February 12, up 6.88% from the previous day's close, with a trading volume of 36,394 lots (up 111.54%) and an open interest of 31,021 lots (down 6.07%) [4] - Other contracts also showed varying degrees of price increases, trading volume changes, and open interest adjustments [4] Spread Structure - The spread between different contract months showed fluctuations, such as the EC04 - EC06 spread being -307, up 15.9 [4] Container Freight Rates - SCFIS European Line was reported at 1,657.94 points on February 6, down 1.06% month - on - month, and the EC2602 delivery settlement price was 1,769.8 points [6] - Most container freight rates showed a downward trend week - on - week and year - on - year, with some exceptions like the SCFIS US West Line showing a 4.93% week - on - week increase [4] Fuel Costs - WTI crude oil near - month price was $64.79 per barrel, up 1.12% month - on - month and down 10.16% year - on - year; Brent crude oil near - month price was $68.95 per barrel, up 0.79% month - on - month and down 9.0% year - on - year [4] Group 3: Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations Market Analysis - The risk of the escalation of the Iranian situation remains. Short - selling funds left the market for risk - avoidance before the holiday, driving the market up [6] - Spot freight rates may remain weak. Some shipping companies' price increase expectations have loosened, and the post - holiday period is still in the off - season [7] - In terms of fundamentals, the demand side is seeing a decline after reaching a peak, and the supply side's weekly average capacity deployment has little change compared to the previous period [7] - Geopolitical factors are volatile, and it is still difficult for a large - scale resumption of European routes in the first half of the year [7] Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: Do not hold positions during the holiday and maintain a short - term wait - and - see attitude as the off - season in April does not warrant high expectations [8] - Arbitrage: Conduct rolling operations on the 6 - 10 positive spread [9] Group 4: Industry News - According to Wall Street Journal, the US Department of Defense has instructed a second aircraft carrier strike group to prepare for deployment to the Middle East, and the deployment order may be issued within hours [12] - Trump's meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has begun according to the AXIOS website [13] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes several figures, such as the SCFIS European Line Index and SCFIS US West Line Index, SCFI Composite Index, and container freight rates for different routes [15][20][26]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information available Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to the weakening of macro - sentiment and the chain reaction of liquidity, the lithium carbonate price has experienced a huge shock. In the short term, the downstream pre - holiday stocking demand is basically completed, and the pre - holiday market may be dull. The focus is on the post - holiday situation [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 134,500, down 9,500; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 131,000, down 9,500 [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) average price is 1,880, down 10; lithium mica (Li20:1.5% - 2.0%) average price is 2,875, down 125; lithium mica (Li20:2.0% - 2.5%) average price is 4,375, down 175; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:6% - 7%) average price is 13,000, down 650; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:7% - 8%) average price is 13,900, down 900 [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 49,770, down 2,305; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 199,000, down 2,500; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 173,500, down 3,000; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 175,500, down 3,000 [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,500; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 1,580, down 9,640; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 780, down 500; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 1,200, down 920 [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 105,463, down 2,019; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 18,356, down 647; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 43,657, up 3,058; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 43,450, down 4,430; the registered warrants (daily, tons) is 33,777, down 10 [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 138,350, and the profit is - 5,715; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 136,032, and the profit is - 6,691 [3] Policy and Market News - Canada will allow up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles to enter the Canadian market with a preferential tariff rate of 6.1% [3] - From April 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, the VAT export refund rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6%; from January 1, 2027, the VAT export refund for battery products will be cancelled [3]

值得一提的是，卓创数据显示，上周PVC出口签单环比小幅下降，此前火热的"抢出口"效应有所消退， 这也引发市场对"强预期"降温的担忧。但在阙云云看来，这一现象背后藏着多重逻辑。一方面，海外下 游需求回暖仍需时间，客户采购态度偏谨慎，难以出现持续性的集中抢购场景。另一方面，印度市场的 季节性与政策因素进一步影响了采购节奏：每年3月是印度财政结算期，历史上印度客户会提前至2月集 中采购，但今年受中国PVC出口退税政策调整影响，部分2月的采购需求已提前至1月释放。此外，印度 客户还存在明显顾虑——担心前期集中采购后，后续进口到货量过于集中，进而冲击当地市场价格，因 此当前采购行为更为理性。 不过，阙云云也提到，海外客户普遍认为，后续很难再买到低价中国PVC。若出口退税政策无重大变 动，中长期国际市场PVC价格重心有望逐步上移。 期货盘面短期或震荡运行 "此前PVC期货盘面表现强势，主要有三个原因。"中信期货能化分析师杨晓宇表示，一是出口退税政策 即将取消带来的阶段性需求提振；二是春季检修预期升温，行业深度亏损或推升上游春检意愿；三是政 策面与资金面共振，有色板块的乐观情绪外溢至能化板块，多重预期共同推动期货盘面上行。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The glass industry is entering a seasonal downturn as downstream companies begin to shut down for the Spring Festival, leading to weakened terminal demand. Despite this, glass futures surged by 3.36%, reaching a peak of 1120 yuan/ton with trading volume exceeding 2 million contracts. The market is currently trading on supply contraction expectations rather than fundamental improvements, and future price movements will depend on supply and demand dynamics [1]. Group 1 - Analysts indicate that some glass production lines are expected to undergo cold repairs, which may lead to reduced output and potential price increases [1]. - The current glass market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with daily melting capacity of float glass dropping to 151,000 tons, a 14% decrease from the 2024 peak [1]. - The glass industry is facing ongoing operational pressures, with most production lines operating at a loss, and a potential shift to a weak supply-demand balance if capacity falls below 150,000 tons [1]. Group 2 - In Hubei, some production lines are undergoing energy transformation from petroleum coke to natural gas and electrification, which may temporarily reduce supply and support price increases [2]. - Unlike previous years, the winter storage market before the Spring Festival is relatively stable, with downstream companies showing low willingness to stockpile due to insufficient orders [2]. - Export performance has been strong, with January glass export orders benefiting from export tax rebate policies [3]. Group 3 - Analysts suggest that market trading logic will shift before and after the Spring Festival, with attention needed on downstream stockpiling intentions before the holiday [4]. - Post-holiday, the focus will be on the recovery of downstream demand, particularly in the real estate sector, as a lack of improvement may limit upward price potential for glass futures [4]. - The overall production costs in the glass industry are likely to rise, with natural gas production lines continuing to operate at a loss, indicating limited potential for significant price declines [4].

| 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【行情回顾】 | 2 | | | 【市场展望】 | 2 | | | 【策略推荐】 | 2 | | 第二部分 | 行情复盘 | 3 | | | 一、年后现货拐点逐渐确立后步入下跌通道，近远月驱动出现分化 | 3 | | 第三部分 | 基本面情况 | 5 | | | 一、集运市场开始步入传统货运淡季，现货运价出现拐点后进入下跌通道. | 5 | | | 二、年末集装箱新船交付量出现大幅抬升，关注新年集装箱新船下水情况 | | | | | 10 | | 三、12 | 月中国出口数据强势收官，出口结构表现继续分化 | 21 | | 第四部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 | 28 | 航运板块研发报告 集运指数（欧线）月报 2026 年 1 月 27 日 1 月现货拐点已现，关注地缘动态进展 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 运价方面，1 月现货高点已现，旺季货量筑顶回落后，主流船司相继调降现 货报价，现货运价步入快速下跌通道中，截至 2026 年 1 月 23 日，SCFI 欧线报 1595 美金/TEU，已经连续三周下跌。预计节后集 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The current spot freight rates in the container shipping market are in a downward trend during the off - season, and the rush of shipments due to export tax rebates is less than expected, making it difficult to reverse the decline. The EC2604 contract has a discount, and the subsequent spot situation should be monitored. The geopolitical situation is complex, and it is still difficult for large - scale resumption of shipping on the European route in the first half of the year. The risk of the Iranian situation remains, so short - term unilateral trading is recommended to wait and see, and the 6 - 10 positive spread arbitrage should be held [6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Route) - **Futures Market** - Different futures contracts of the container freight index (European route) have different closing prices, price changes, trading volume changes, and open interest changes. For example, the EC2602 contract closed at 1,717.5 points, down 9.2 points or - 0.53%, with a trading volume of 984.0 lots (up 74.16%) and an open interest of 3,495.0 lots (down 17.28%) [4]. - The month - spread structure also shows different price differences and their changes. For example, the price difference between EC02 - EC04 is 524, down 2.9 [4]. - **Container Freight Rates** - Various container freight rates show different degrees of decline on a weekly basis. For example, the SCFIS European route index is 1859.31 points, down 4.86% week - on - week and 24.61% year - on - year. The SCFI comprehensive index is 1457.86 points, down 7.39% week - on - week and 36.36% year - on - year [4]. - **Fuel Costs** - The prices of WTI crude oil near - month and Brent crude oil near - month also show declines. The WTI crude oil near - month price is 60.64 dollars/barrel, down 0.57% week - on - week and 17.89% year - on - year. The Brent crude oil near - month price is 64.9 dollars/barrel, down 0.83% week - on - week and 16.2% year - on - year [4]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Analysis** - The spot freight rates are in the off - season decline, and the rush of shipments due to the export tax rebate policy is less than expected. The 1/23 SCFI European route quote is 1595 dollars/TEU, down 4.83% week - on - week. The latest SCFIS European route quote on Monday after the market is 1859.31 points, down 4.9% week - on - week, slightly lower than market expectations [6]. - From the fundamental perspective, the demand side is seeing a decline in cargo volume after reaching a peak, and the supply side shows a slight decrease in January's shipping capacity in Shanghai - Northern Europe 5 ports this week, with little change in February and March. The geopolitical situation is complex, and it is difficult for large - scale resumption of shipping on the European route in the first half of the year [7]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: Due to many short - term disturbances in the 04 contract, differences in the rush of shipments, and the unresolved risk of the Iranian situation, unilateral trading is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold the 6 - 10 positive spread arbitrage [9]. 3.3 Industry News - The US President Trump said that the Iranian situation is "changing rapidly", and he sent a "huge fleet" to the region, but he believes that Iran wants to reach an agreement [12]. - The US will increase tariffs on South Korean goods from 15% to 25% due to the South Korean Congress's non - approval of the trade agreement [12]. - India plans to significantly reduce the import tariff on EU cars from a maximum of 110% to 40%, and the future tariff may be further reduced to 10%, which may lead to the signing of a free trade agreement with the EU [12]. 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the SCFIS European route index and SCFIS US - West route index, SCFI comprehensive index, container freight rates of Shanghai - US West, Shanghai - US East, Shanghai - Europe, and the basis of EC02 and EC04 contracts [14][15][24].

Industry Overview - The lithium carbonate market price has returned to 170,000 yuan/ton, with a significant increase in market activity following a drop to 150,000 yuan/ton, indicating market acceptance of the new price level [7] - The domestic lithium battery market is expected to see stable prices in the first quarter, with a projected year-on-year production decline of only 10-15%, which is better than previous years [15] Market Insights - In 2025, China's automobile sales are projected to reach 34.4 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 9.4%, and new energy vehicles (NEVs) accounting for 50.8% of domestic sales [3] - The Congo government has submitted a shortlist of state-owned mineral assets to the U.S., aiming to attract investment and enhance its influence in the critical mineral supply chain [4] Company Developments - Wanrun New Energy plans to invest 1.079 billion yuan in a high-pressure dense lithium iron phosphate project, with a production capacity of 70,000 tons per year [5] - Putailai has forecasted a net profit of 230 to 240 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of over 90% [6] Price Trends - As of January 22, 2025, the price for battery-grade lithium carbonate is between 161,000 to 168,000 yuan/ton, while industrial-grade is between 147,000 to 153,000 yuan/ton [8] - The price for ternary materials is experiencing fluctuations, driven by the rise in lithium carbonate prices, with 5-series single crystal materials priced at 195,000 to 202,000 yuan/ton [9] Supply Chain Dynamics - The supply of phosphoric acid is expected to be tight this year, influencing the pricing and availability of lithium iron phosphate [10] - The electrode material market is stable, with some small and medium manufacturers increasing prices for mid- to low-end products by 1,000 to 2,000 yuan/ton [12] Future Outlook - The global lithium battery application market is anticipated to grow significantly from 2025 to 2029, with ongoing research and competitive strategy analysis being conducted [18]

Core Viewpoint - The shipping market in 2026 will revolve around two key variables: the concentration of exports before the exit of the export tax policy and the reopening of the Red Sea shipping route [2][7]. Demand Factors - The most significant short-term variable on the demand side is the export tax policy, which will see the cancellation of export tax for solar products starting April 1, 2026, and for battery products in 2027. This policy is expected to lead to a surge in exports in the first quarter of 2026, potentially overstretching future demand and negatively impacting freight rates in the second quarter and beyond [2][7]. - In the medium to long term, demand growth in the shipping market is anticipated to slow down significantly, with growth primarily driven by European restocking needs, the cost advantages of Chinese manufacturing, and structural opportunities arising from changes in the trade environment. Key growth areas are expected to be in electric vehicles, textiles, and home appliances [2][7]. Supply Factors - The core variable on the supply side is whether the Red Sea shipping route will resume operations, which will be crucial in determining the capacity landscape for 2026. If the current detour around the Cape of Good Hope continues, capacity growth will be relatively moderate. Due to a slowdown in new ship deliveries and some new capacity being redirected to emerging markets in Asia, South America, and Africa, the capacity growth on the European route is expected to be around 4%, matching demand growth [3][8]. - If the Red Sea reopens, it could release a significant amount of effective capacity in a short time, leading to structural shocks in the supply chain. In this scenario, total capacity on the European route could increase by approximately 8% compared to current levels, which may disrupt the supply-demand balance and continue to suppress freight rates during peak seasons [3][9]. Market Outlook - Overall, the European shipping market in 2026 is expected to exhibit a complex pattern of "short-term support and long-term uncertainties." In the short term, the first quarter will benefit from the "export rush," with relatively full cargo volumes, compounded by potential congestion at ports in Western and Northern Europe during winter, providing strong support for freight rates [4][9]. - In the long term, the central tendency and volatility of freight rates will largely depend on the status of the Red Sea reopening. If it does not reopen, the market supply and demand will likely remain balanced, leading to seasonal fluctuations in freight rates. Conversely, if the Red Sea reopens, there will be a need to be cautious of the risks of overcapacity leading to downward pressure on freight rates [4][9].