2026年2月6日，伊朗与美国在阿曼首都马斯喀特举行间接会谈。这是自去年6月"十二日战争"后的首次 间接会谈，但这场会谈并未改变自今年初以来双方剑拔弩张的氛围。美军仍在不断调兵遣将，可能会将 第二个航母特混舰队部署到伊朗附近。中东地区依旧战云密布。 伊朗民众自"十二日战争"以来就持续承受着身心的双重煎熬。去年底今年初，伊朗国内再次爆发大规模 抗议活动，抗议期间的断网，更让身处其中的人们产生恍如隔世的切身之感。在这个动荡不安的时刻， 观察者网连线了一位正在伊朗读大学的女生希琳（化名），希望从她的个人视角，听听她口中当下的伊 朗。 观察者网：对中国公众而言，由于长期身处和平环境，我们更多是通过新闻中的图片、文字与视频片段 间接感知战争，难以真切体会其沉重与残酷。2025年"十二日战争"给伊朗社会造成巨大伤害，我们也是 通过新闻报道来了解。在您看来，这场战争给伊朗民众带来了怎样的影响？是否也改变了民众对政府及 其经济韧性政策的看法？ 希琳："十二日战争"对伊朗人的创伤是持续性的，战争的阴影至今仍笼罩在我的心头。作为千禧年一 代，我并没有直接经历过战争，我的父母经历过两伊战争，但对我来说，战争只停留在父母的回忆与教 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the severe economic crisis in Iran, highlighting the rapid devaluation of the Iranian rial and the government's inability to restore economic stability through superficial reforms [5][6][12]. Group 1: Currency Devaluation and Economic Impact - As of September 2025, the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Iranian rial reached 1:1,150,000, a significant increase from 800,000 rial per dollar at the beginning of the year and 10,000 rial per dollar in 2010 [6][7]. - The rapid devaluation has rendered the currency nearly worthless, leading to a drastic decline in economic efficiency and daily consumer difficulties [8][10]. - In response to hyperinflation, the Iranian parliament approved a comprehensive reform to remove four zeros from the rial's face value, which is seen as a technical fix rather than a solution to the underlying economic issues [11][12]. Group 2: Government Revenue and Economic Structure - Since 2022, Iranian government revenues have significantly decreased, with the economy entering a recession again after a brief growth in 2024 [21][22]. - The projected tax revenue for 2025 is approximately $12.8 billion, accounting for less than 2.5% of GDP, indicating a near collapse of the tax base [23][24]. - The article suggests that the Iranian government has lost its ability to regulate society due to financial constraints, exacerbated by external sanctions and internal mismanagement [27][28]. Group 3: Political and Economic System - Iran's political system is characterized by a theocratic structure where religious authority supersedes democratic governance, leading to inefficiencies and corruption [29][30]. - The Bonyad, a network of religious foundations, contributes about 20% of Iran's GDP but operates outside normal regulatory frameworks, enjoying tax exemptions and government subsidies [35][48]. - The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has evolved into a military-industrial complex, controlling significant economic sectors and contributing over 30% of GDP, further entrenching the economic challenges faced by the government [78][79]. Group 4: Socioeconomic Disparities - The wealth distribution in Iran has become increasingly skewed, with a small elite, including high-ranking clerics, accumulating vast fortunes while the majority of the population struggles with low incomes [49][50]. - The article highlights the disparity between the high allowances of clerics and the low average income of citizens, illustrating the deepening economic divide [49][50]. - The current economic situation is viewed as a result of systemic issues within the governance structure, where wealth is concentrated among a few, leading to widespread discontent among the populace [104][106].

Core Viewpoint - Iran is undergoing a significant currency reform due to hyperinflation, which has led to the devaluation of its currency, the rial, necessitating the removal of four zeros from its face value to simplify transactions and restore some semblance of economic order [4][5][6][8]. Currency Reform - The Iranian parliament has approved a comprehensive reform of the currency system, which includes removing four zeros from the rial [4][5]. - The new exchange rate will be 1 new rial equal to 10,000 old rials, while the currency name will remain "rial" [11]. - A new subunit called "qeran" will be introduced, where 1 new rial equals 100 qeran [11]. - The reform will have a preparation period of up to two years and a transition period of up to three years during which both old and new currencies will circulate [11]. Economic Context - The Iranian economy is facing severe challenges, with a reported economic growth rate of -0.1% in the first quarter of 2025, and significant declines in industrial and agricultural sectors [17]. - Tax revenue for 2025 is projected to be around $12.8 billion, accounting for less than 2.5% of GDP, indicating a near collapse of the tax base [18][19]. - The government has been heavily reliant on borrowing from the central bank, leading to rampant money printing and further devaluation of the rial [52][54]. Structural Issues - The Iranian economy is characterized by a dual structure where religious foundations and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) dominate economic activities, contributing over 50% of GDP but failing to benefit the general populace [48]. - The IRGC has expanded its influence into various sectors, including construction and energy, often without competition due to its privileged status [45][47]. - The economic model has led to a significant wealth gap, with a small elite controlling most resources while the general population suffers from declining purchasing power [40][61]. Historical Perspective - The current situation in Iran contrasts sharply with the historical "Golden Age" of Islam, where leaders were chosen based on merit rather than religious or military power [59]. - The present-day clerical leadership has shifted from moral exemplars to self-serving elites, exacerbating social inequalities and economic mismanagement [60][61].