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伊朗走投无路
虎嗅APP· 2025-10-17 09:36
一个游走于资本市场与佛祖之间的浪子。我可以生,可以死,我大笑,由天决定! 以下文章来源于格隆 ,作者万连山 本文来自微信公众号: 格隆 (ID:guru-lama) ,作者:万连山,头图来自:视觉中国 天天说美元收割全世界,伊朗今天告诉你,什么才叫收割。 截至2025年9月底,美元兑伊朗里亚尔在自由市场的汇率,已达到1:1150000。 格隆 . 然而今年年初时,还是80万里亚尔兑1美元,2010年时还是1万里亚尔兑1美元。 但是,实际的购买力没变。 对此,伊朗议会现任议员侯赛因·萨姆萨米公开嘲讽:"一国货币的声誉无法通过取消四个零来恢复。 相反,只有通过增强货币的实际价值才能达到这一目的。" 就算去掉4个0,实际物价依然在飞涨,钞票的实际购买力依然在下降。 在这种环境中,民间不得不自发"去0",用"土曼"作为计价单位,方便交易。 但官方与民间的计价割裂,也导致货币功能接近崩溃。 所以在经历长达8年的挣扎后,月初,伊朗议会不得不批准对货币制度全面改革。 改革的核心就是, 在未来几年,将里亚尔的面值抹去4个0。 官方给出的解释很体面:这是一次应对恶性通胀的"技术性修复",一场旨在"简化交易"的账本大扫 除。 简 ...
伊朗走投无路
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-15 11:20
Core Viewpoint - Iran is undergoing a significant currency reform due to hyperinflation, which has led to the devaluation of its currency, the rial, necessitating the removal of four zeros from its face value to simplify transactions and restore some semblance of economic order [4][5][6][8]. Currency Reform - The Iranian parliament has approved a comprehensive reform of the currency system, which includes removing four zeros from the rial [4][5]. - The new exchange rate will be 1 new rial equal to 10,000 old rials, while the currency name will remain "rial" [11]. - A new subunit called "qeran" will be introduced, where 1 new rial equals 100 qeran [11]. - The reform will have a preparation period of up to two years and a transition period of up to three years during which both old and new currencies will circulate [11]. Economic Context - The Iranian economy is facing severe challenges, with a reported economic growth rate of -0.1% in the first quarter of 2025, and significant declines in industrial and agricultural sectors [17]. - Tax revenue for 2025 is projected to be around $12.8 billion, accounting for less than 2.5% of GDP, indicating a near collapse of the tax base [18][19]. - The government has been heavily reliant on borrowing from the central bank, leading to rampant money printing and further devaluation of the rial [52][54]. Structural Issues - The Iranian economy is characterized by a dual structure where religious foundations and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) dominate economic activities, contributing over 50% of GDP but failing to benefit the general populace [48]. - The IRGC has expanded its influence into various sectors, including construction and energy, often without competition due to its privileged status [45][47]. - The economic model has led to a significant wealth gap, with a small elite controlling most resources while the general population suffers from declining purchasing power [40][61]. Historical Perspective - The current situation in Iran contrasts sharply with the historical "Golden Age" of Islam, where leaders were chosen based on merit rather than religious or military power [59]. - The present-day clerical leadership has shifted from moral exemplars to self-serving elites, exacerbating social inequalities and economic mismanagement [60][61].