今天分享的是：港股IPO放量的影响与高效打新策略 报告共计：25页 港股IPO市场动态与打新策略总结 2025年港股IPO市场显著回暖，截至12月12日，港股主板已有99家公司上市，合计募资超2500亿港元，占今年中资股IPO募资总额的 67%，创近10年新高。伴随IPO活跃度提升，港股打新热度同步高涨，2025年打新胜率升至73%，表观收益率达34%，均较往年明显提 升，但平均一手中签率回落至20%，为近10年最低。 从市场特征来看，港股IPO存在几点易被误解的特点。其一，港股实行注册制，但2016年以来上市率仅37%，递表数量与实际上市数量差 异较大，企业上市成功率受多方因素制约。其二，港股打新无市值要求，参与门槛低，且需全额缴款，未必造成二级市场资金"抽水"。 其三，港股支持杠杆打新，中签率显著高于A股，加之结算周期缩短至T+2，资金使用效率更高。其四，受发行定价机制影响，港股新股 首日破发率显著高于A股，2016年以来平均破发率达45%，精选标的至关重要。 从关键时点影响来看，大型IPO对二级市场整体影响不显著，但对可选消费、科技等行业有一定提振作用；上市至入通阶段是打新赚钱 窗口，绝对收益和超额收益 ...

截至2025年12月24日 13:10，A500ETF南方(159352)上涨0.33%，冲击4连涨。盘中换手16.37%，成交 68.48亿元，市场交投活跃。跟踪指数中证A500指数上涨0.24%，成分股信维通信上涨18.25%，北京君 正上涨10.73%，中国卫星上涨10.00%，生益科技上涨8.79%，航天发展上涨7.28%。 中证A500指数被誉为"中国新质生产力风向标"，以革新编制逻辑突破传统：通过"三级行业龙头优先 +ESG负面剔除"机制，覆盖约90个三级行业，同时汇聚千亿巨头及百亿成长龙头，实现行业与市值双平 衡。指数深度绑定国家战略产业，全面配置信息技术、高端制造、医药等新质生产力领域，为投资者提 供分享经济转型红利、分散风险的优质载体。 中证A500指数前十大权重股分别为宁德时代、贵州茅台、中国平安、招商银行、紫金矿业、中际旭 创、美的集团、兴业银行、新易盛、长江电力。 A500ETF南方(159352)凭借0.15%管理费+0.05%托管费全行业最低费率档位，为投资者提供高精度、低 成本配置通道。场内高流动性满足交易需求，场外联接基金(A：022434；C：022435；Y：022918) ...

- The report introduces an **industry crowding monitoring model** to track the crowding levels of Shenwan primary industry indices on a daily basis. The model identifies industries with high crowding levels (e.g., communication and electronics) and low crowding levels (e.g., automotive and non-bank financials). It also highlights significant changes in crowding levels for industries like construction decoration and military industries[3] - A **Z-score premium model** is constructed to screen ETF products for potential arbitrage opportunities. The model uses rolling calculations to identify ETFs with significant deviations in premium rates, which may indicate arbitrage opportunities or potential risks of price corrections[4] - The report provides detailed data on **ETF fund flows**, categorizing them into broad-based ETFs, industry-themed ETFs, style-strategy ETFs, and cross-border ETFs. For example, the top three net inflows for broad-based ETFs include the SSE 50 ETF (+6.60 billion yuan), A500 ETF (+5.84 billion yuan), and ChiNext 50 ETF (+2.75 billion yuan), while the top three net outflows include the ChiNext ETF (-7.26 billion yuan), CSI 500 ETF (-5.56 billion yuan), and STAR 50 ETF (-5.10 billion yuan)[5]

Market Performance - The three major indices experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly falling below the 20-day moving average, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext continued their weak downward trend, although the decline narrowed towards the end of the trading session [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.91 trillion, a decrease of 47.3 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.46%, the Shenzhen Component decreased by 0.11%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.2% [1] Trading Data - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3972.03 [2] - The estimated trading volume was 3.9 trillion [2] - The balance of the Shanghai Stock Connect quota was 11.199 billion [2] Sector Performance - The top performing sectors included Free Trade Zones in Fujian and the West Coast concept, lithium batteries, and artificial intelligence models [2] - Other notable sectors were organic silicon, pharmaceuticals, and military industry [2] - The performance of ST stocks was also highlighted, indicating a significant presence in the market [2]

Core Viewpoint - Iran is undergoing a significant currency reform due to hyperinflation, which has led to the devaluation of its currency, the rial, necessitating the removal of four zeros from its face value to simplify transactions and restore some semblance of economic order [4][5][6][8]. Currency Reform - The Iranian parliament has approved a comprehensive reform of the currency system, which includes removing four zeros from the rial [4][5]. - The new exchange rate will be 1 new rial equal to 10,000 old rials, while the currency name will remain "rial" [11]. - A new subunit called "qeran" will be introduced, where 1 new rial equals 100 qeran [11]. - The reform will have a preparation period of up to two years and a transition period of up to three years during which both old and new currencies will circulate [11]. Economic Context - The Iranian economy is facing severe challenges, with a reported economic growth rate of -0.1% in the first quarter of 2025, and significant declines in industrial and agricultural sectors [17]. - Tax revenue for 2025 is projected to be around $12.8 billion, accounting for less than 2.5% of GDP, indicating a near collapse of the tax base [18][19]. - The government has been heavily reliant on borrowing from the central bank, leading to rampant money printing and further devaluation of the rial [52][54]. Structural Issues - The Iranian economy is characterized by a dual structure where religious foundations and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) dominate economic activities, contributing over 50% of GDP but failing to benefit the general populace [48]. - The IRGC has expanded its influence into various sectors, including construction and energy, often without competition due to its privileged status [45][47]. - The economic model has led to a significant wealth gap, with a small elite controlling most resources while the general population suffers from declining purchasing power [40][61]. Historical Perspective - The current situation in Iran contrasts sharply with the historical "Golden Age" of Islam, where leaders were chosen based on merit rather than religious or military power [59]. - The present-day clerical leadership has shifted from moral exemplars to self-serving elites, exacerbating social inequalities and economic mismanagement [60][61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market or still favors TACO trading, but the volatility of equity asset prices may be weaker than that during the April 2025 tariff 1.0 period [6]. - In the short - term, with relatively weak equity elasticity, it's recommended to maintain a moderately low position and focus on low - price convertible bonds with clause resonance, especially export - chain convertible bonds affected by tariff policies [7]. - In the medium - term, the upward repair of domestic micro - enterprise performance is becoming a consensus, and the high - price equity - biased strategy may still be structurally dominant, with high attention on the rotation strategy of small - cap growth convertible bonds in technology self - controllable directions [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 April 2025 Market Phases and Performance - **Tariff Upgrade Pre - period (April 2 - 7)**: A - shares and convertible bonds declined. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 7.34% on April 7, and the Wind Convertible Bond Underlying Stock Weighted Index fell over 12%. High - price convertible bonds led the decline, and the equity - biased convertible bond strategy underperformed the market [1]. - **Tariff Counter - measure Initiation (April 8 - 11)**: A - shares and convertible bonds rebounded. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rebounded 2.45%, and high - price convertible bonds rose 5.38% [1]. - **Trade Friction Continuation (April 12 - 20)**: Market risk - aversion sentiment was high, and financial real - estate and dividend industries performed relatively well. Convertible bonds fluctuated narrowly [2]. - **Trade Friction Easing (April 21 onwards)**: Advanced manufacturing and technology sectors drove the market up, while the financial real - estate sector corrected [2]. 3.2 April 2025 Convertible Bond Market Performance by Industry - **High External - demand Exposure Industries**: Industries such as power equipment, machinery, and electronics had deep declines during the tariff upgrade pre - period and weak rebounds later. For example, electronics and home appliance industry convertible bonds' underlying stocks fell over 15% initially and only rebounded about 5% later [3]. - **Balanced Internal and External - demand Exposure Industries**: Industries like national defense and military, computer, and environmental protection had high declines initially but strong rebounds later [3]. - **Domestic - demand - led Industries**: Industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, food and beverage, and transportation had low initial declines and led the rebounds [3]. 3.3 April 2025 Performance of Key Export - chain Convertible Bonds - **Good Initial and Rebound Performance**: Convertible bonds in chemical pesticides (Limin Convertible Bond, Suli Convertible Bond), textile and apparel (Shengtai Convertible Bond), and medical equipment (Yirui Convertible Bond, Kangyi Convertible Bond) had low initial declines and good rebounds [4]. - **High Initial Decline but Strong Rebound**: Convertible bonds in semiconductors (Huaya Convertible Bond, Weil Convertible Bond), military (Ruichuang Convertible Bond, Hangxin Convertible Bond), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (Zhongchong Convertible Bond 2) had high initial declines but strong rebounds [4]. - **Deep Initial Decline and Weak Rebound**: Convertible bonds in consumer electronics, cleaning home appliances, medical outsourcing, and tires had deep initial declines and weak rebounds [4]. 3.4 Current Situation of the Convertible Bond Market - **Investor Behavior**: Since the end of August, investors have tended to "take profits". By the end of September, the scale of Shanghai - listed convertible bonds decreased naturally by 7.1% compared to the end of July. Insurance institutions were the main force in reducing holdings, with a 33% reduction, and other major holders also reduced their holdings [6]. - **Valuation**: Thanks to the reverse increase of public funds, convertible bond valuations are still at a relatively high historical level, and valuation indicators have slightly repaired upwards since late September [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Trump's threat to impose 100% tariffs on all Chinese products has exceeded market expectations, impacting short-term market preferences, while ongoing US-China negotiations may evolve further [2] - The market is likely to stabilize after quickly pricing in the tariff impact, entering a phase of consolidation, with short-term stability and policy-benefiting sectors expected to outperform, while technology growth remains the main focus in the medium term [1][2] - Key sectors to watch include banking, utilities, military industry, semiconductors, new consumption, non-ferrous metals, and agriculture [1] Group 2 - The fourth quarter typically sees a shift in dominant sectors and styles, with sectors that performed well in the first three quarters often struggling to maintain their performance due to year-end profit-taking preferences [3] - Two typical allocation rules for Q4 are to focus on stability and to position for next year's main trends, with potential themes including controllable nuclear fusion, low-altitude economy, commercial aerospace, and quantum communication [3] - In the absence of clear signals for further growth-stabilizing policies, short-term stability and policy-benefiting sectors are expected to outperform, while growth sectors will undergo rebalancing [3]

Group 1 - A-shares have outperformed U.S. stocks, with a relative excess return exceeding 15% since the second half of the year, marking the highest level since 2015 [1][3] - The probability of A-shares outperforming U.S. stocks increases when both markets rise together, with A-shares winning approximately 54% of the time in such scenarios [3][5] - Historical analysis shows that A-shares have outperformed U.S. stocks in 10 distinct phases since the early 1990s, with the average duration of these phases being around 10 months [5][6] Group 2 - The main factors influencing A-share performance during winning phases include valuation and earnings contributions, with valuation changes playing a more significant role [6][10] - In winning phases, sectors such as machinery, finance, military, and technology tend to perform better, although specific sector performance can vary by economic conditions [10][12] - A-shares typically outperform during upward phases of the economic cycle, but can also win during U.S. economic downturns if the U.S. market experiences significant corrections [12][17] Group 3 - The current winning phase for A-shares began in June 2025, with the potential for continuation depending on market conditions and policy support [20][21] - Future performance may depend on whether both markets enter a cooling phase, with a greater decline in U.S. stocks, or if A-shares continue to rise independently [21]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that *ST Dongtong held its 26th meeting of the 5th board of directors on August 20, 2025, to discuss the proposal for using part of the idle raised funds to temporarily supplement working capital [2] - In the fiscal year 2024, *ST Dongtong's revenue composition is as follows: telecommunications accounted for 38.1%, government for 18.72%, finance for 14.77%, other industries for 9.67%, energy for 9.22%, and military industry for 7.5% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The current slow bull market began on June 23, characterized by structural prosperity as the main driving force, limited short-term capital inflow due to internal and external uncertainties, a clear but steady bullish direction, and stronger performance in the first half of the week compared to the latter half [1][2]. Market Characteristics - Structural prosperity is the primary driving force of the market, with significant performance recovery in specific sectors despite overall weak earnings recovery in the A-share market [2]. - Internal and external uncertainties are restricting rapid short-term capital inflow, with macroeconomic expectations affected by "gray rhino" events [2]. - The market has a clear bullish direction but maintains a steady rhythm, with the first half of the week performing better than the second half [1][2]. Future Market Evolution - The market may continue its slow bull pattern, with two possible scenarios: a market adjustment that slows the upward pace, allowing the slow bull pattern to persist, or an accelerated market peak due to overheating or deteriorating trading structure, leading to a significant correction [1][2]. Industry Allocation - The dividend sector is recommended as a base due to its high dividend characteristics in a low-interest-rate environment, while new sectors can be expanded upon with event catalysts and positive mid-term earnings forecasts [3]. - Key sectors to focus on include dividends, liquid cooling servers, AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, humanoid robots, beauty care, electronics, non-banking financials, non-ferrous metals, and military industry [3].