Market Performance - The three major indices experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly falling below the 20-day moving average, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext continued their weak downward trend, although the decline narrowed towards the end of the trading session [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.91 trillion, a decrease of 47.3 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.46%, the Shenzhen Component decreased by 0.11%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.2% [1] Trading Data - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3972.03 [2] - The estimated trading volume was 3.9 trillion [2] - The balance of the Shanghai Stock Connect quota was 11.199 billion [2] Sector Performance - The top performing sectors included Free Trade Zones in Fujian and the West Coast concept, lithium batteries, and artificial intelligence models [2] - Other notable sectors were organic silicon, pharmaceuticals, and military industry [2] - The performance of ST stocks was also highlighted, indicating a significant presence in the market [2]

作者 | 万连山 数据支持 | 勾股大数据（www.gogudata.com） 天天说美元收割全世界，伊朗今天告诉你，什么才叫收割。 截至2025年9月底，美元兑伊朗里亚尔在自由市场的汇率，已达到1:1150000。 然而今年年初时，还是80万里亚尔兑1美元，2010年时还是1万里亚尔兑1美元。 钱如此不值钱、且贬值如此之快，民众日常消费极其不便，经济效率断崖式下跌。 在这种环境中，民间不得不自发"去0"，用"土曼"作为计价单位，方便交易。 但官方与民间的计价割裂，也导致货币功能接近崩溃。 所以在经历长达8年的挣扎后，月初，伊朗议会不得不批准对货币制度全面改革。 改革的核心就是，在未来几年，将里亚尔的面值抹去4个0。 官方给出的解释很体面：这是一次应对恶性通胀的"技术性修复"，一场旨在"简化交易"的账本大扫除。 简单来说，伊朗民间大量的亿万富翁，突然都变成了万元户。 但是，实际的购买力没变。 对此，伊朗议会现任议员侯赛因·萨姆萨米公开嘲讽：" 一国货币的声誉无法通过取消四个零来恢复。相反，只有通过增强货 币的实际价值才能达到这一目的。 " 就算去掉4个0，实际物价依然在飞涨，钞票的实际购买力依然在下降。 不改 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market or still favors TACO trading, but the volatility of equity asset prices may be weaker than that during the April 2025 tariff 1.0 period [6]. - In the short - term, with relatively weak equity elasticity, it's recommended to maintain a moderately low position and focus on low - price convertible bonds with clause resonance, especially export - chain convertible bonds affected by tariff policies [7]. - In the medium - term, the upward repair of domestic micro - enterprise performance is becoming a consensus, and the high - price equity - biased strategy may still be structurally dominant, with high attention on the rotation strategy of small - cap growth convertible bonds in technology self - controllable directions [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 April 2025 Market Phases and Performance - **Tariff Upgrade Pre - period (April 2 - 7)**: A - shares and convertible bonds declined. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 7.34% on April 7, and the Wind Convertible Bond Underlying Stock Weighted Index fell over 12%. High - price convertible bonds led the decline, and the equity - biased convertible bond strategy underperformed the market [1]. - **Tariff Counter - measure Initiation (April 8 - 11)**: A - shares and convertible bonds rebounded. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rebounded 2.45%, and high - price convertible bonds rose 5.38% [1]. - **Trade Friction Continuation (April 12 - 20)**: Market risk - aversion sentiment was high, and financial real - estate and dividend industries performed relatively well. Convertible bonds fluctuated narrowly [2]. - **Trade Friction Easing (April 21 onwards)**: Advanced manufacturing and technology sectors drove the market up, while the financial real - estate sector corrected [2]. 3.2 April 2025 Convertible Bond Market Performance by Industry - **High External - demand Exposure Industries**: Industries such as power equipment, machinery, and electronics had deep declines during the tariff upgrade pre - period and weak rebounds later. For example, electronics and home appliance industry convertible bonds' underlying stocks fell over 15% initially and only rebounded about 5% later [3]. - **Balanced Internal and External - demand Exposure Industries**: Industries like national defense and military, computer, and environmental protection had high declines initially but strong rebounds later [3]. - **Domestic - demand - led Industries**: Industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, food and beverage, and transportation had low initial declines and led the rebounds [3]. 3.3 April 2025 Performance of Key Export - chain Convertible Bonds - **Good Initial and Rebound Performance**: Convertible bonds in chemical pesticides (Limin Convertible Bond, Suli Convertible Bond), textile and apparel (Shengtai Convertible Bond), and medical equipment (Yirui Convertible Bond, Kangyi Convertible Bond) had low initial declines and good rebounds [4]. - **High Initial Decline but Strong Rebound**: Convertible bonds in semiconductors (Huaya Convertible Bond, Weil Convertible Bond), military (Ruichuang Convertible Bond, Hangxin Convertible Bond), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (Zhongchong Convertible Bond 2) had high initial declines but strong rebounds [4]. - **Deep Initial Decline and Weak Rebound**: Convertible bonds in consumer electronics, cleaning home appliances, medical outsourcing, and tires had deep initial declines and weak rebounds [4]. 3.4 Current Situation of the Convertible Bond Market - **Investor Behavior**: Since the end of August, investors have tended to "take profits". By the end of September, the scale of Shanghai - listed convertible bonds decreased naturally by 7.1% compared to the end of July. Insurance institutions were the main force in reducing holdings, with a 33% reduction, and other major holders also reduced their holdings [6]. - **Valuation**: Thanks to the reverse increase of public funds, convertible bond valuations are still at a relatively high historical level, and valuation indicators have slightly repaired upwards since late September [6].

陈果策略团队认为，2019年5月也具备一定参考意义，当时市场迅速调整后震荡蓄势缓升，可比的原因 包括：1)市场位置类似，加征关税前经历大幅上涨；2)基本面现实与预期类似，对美出口已经明显下 滑，关税边际影响减弱；3)对于贸易摩擦的准备程度类似，分别经历2018年和2025年的关税反复；4)政 策环境类似，政策力度均边际减弱；5)产业周期位置类似，均处于新一轮科技创新、产业升级起点。 智通财经APP获悉，东方财富陈果策略团队发布研究报告称，本次特朗普威胁加征关税有一定迹象可 循，但整体仍超出市场预期，对短期市场偏好构成影响，同时后续中美谈判仍存在继续演进和变化可 能。此次市场可能在快速price in关税冲击对风险偏好的影响后，会逐步稳住阵脚，进入一个阶段的震 荡蓄势的过程，结构上，短期稳定类和受益政策预期类的板块相对占优，但中期科技成长仍是主线。重 点关注行业：银行、公用事业、军工、半导体、新消费、有色、农林牧渔等。主题关注：自主可控、可 控核聚变、商业航天等。 关税风波再起，风险偏好短期下移 10月10日晚，特朗普威胁将自11月1日起对中国的所有产品征收100%的关税，并对关键软件实施出口管 制。本次特朗普 ...

Group 1 - A-shares have outperformed U.S. stocks, with a relative excess return exceeding 15% since the second half of the year, marking the highest level since 2015 [1][3] - The probability of A-shares outperforming U.S. stocks increases when both markets rise together, with A-shares winning approximately 54% of the time in such scenarios [3][5] - Historical analysis shows that A-shares have outperformed U.S. stocks in 10 distinct phases since the early 1990s, with the average duration of these phases being around 10 months [5][6] Group 2 - The main factors influencing A-share performance during winning phases include valuation and earnings contributions, with valuation changes playing a more significant role [6][10] - In winning phases, sectors such as machinery, finance, military, and technology tend to perform better, although specific sector performance can vary by economic conditions [10][12] - A-shares typically outperform during upward phases of the economic cycle, but can also win during U.S. economic downturns if the U.S. market experiences significant corrections [12][17] Group 3 - The current winning phase for A-shares began in June 2025, with the potential for continuation depending on market conditions and policy support [20][21] - Future performance may depend on whether both markets enter a cooling phase, with a greater decline in U.S. stocks, or if A-shares continue to rise independently [21]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that *ST Dongtong held its 26th meeting of the 5th board of directors on August 20, 2025, to discuss the proposal for using part of the idle raised funds to temporarily supplement working capital [2] - In the fiscal year 2024, *ST Dongtong's revenue composition is as follows: telecommunications accounted for 38.1%, government for 18.72%, finance for 14.77%, other industries for 9.67%, energy for 9.22%, and military industry for 7.5% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The current slow bull market began on June 23, characterized by structural prosperity as the main driving force, limited short-term capital inflow due to internal and external uncertainties, a clear but steady bullish direction, and stronger performance in the first half of the week compared to the latter half [1][2]. Market Characteristics - Structural prosperity is the primary driving force of the market, with significant performance recovery in specific sectors despite overall weak earnings recovery in the A-share market [2]. - Internal and external uncertainties are restricting rapid short-term capital inflow, with macroeconomic expectations affected by "gray rhino" events [2]. - The market has a clear bullish direction but maintains a steady rhythm, with the first half of the week performing better than the second half [1][2]. Future Market Evolution - The market may continue its slow bull pattern, with two possible scenarios: a market adjustment that slows the upward pace, allowing the slow bull pattern to persist, or an accelerated market peak due to overheating or deteriorating trading structure, leading to a significant correction [1][2]. Industry Allocation - The dividend sector is recommended as a base due to its high dividend characteristics in a low-interest-rate environment, while new sectors can be expanded upon with event catalysts and positive mid-term earnings forecasts [3]. - Key sectors to focus on include dividends, liquid cooling servers, AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, humanoid robots, beauty care, electronics, non-banking financials, non-ferrous metals, and military industry [3].

Group 1 - The recent trend of ETF share splits in the A-share market aims to lower the unit net value and enhance trading activity, with various popular themes such as innovative drugs, general aviation, and financial technology participating in this trend [1][2] - The share split typically follows a 1:2 ratio, effectively halving the unit net value while increasing the total number of shares, which can attract more investors by lowering the minimum investment threshold [2][4] - Marketing strategies accompanying these splits emphasize lowering trading barriers and enhancing liquidity, with some funds branding themselves as "high-performing" to stand out in a competitive market [1][7] Group 2 - The necessity of ETF share splits is highlighted by the need to improve fund utilization efficiency, especially when unit net values are high, which can hinder investment and redemption processes [4][5] - Despite the share splits, some ETFs have increased their minimum redemption units, resulting in little change to the overall net value of the ETF "basket" [1][3] - Analysts suggest that while share splits can improve liquidity and attract investors, they do not inherently increase the investment value of the ETFs, which remains dependent on market conditions and underlying asset performance [8]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Liquidity - The US dollar index has rebounded, and the degree of inversion in the China-US interest rate spread has narrowed, with inflation expectations also declining [1][12] - Offshore US dollar liquidity remains generally loose, while the domestic interbank funding environment is balanced and slightly loose, with the yield curve spread (10Y-1Y) narrowing [1][20] Group 2: Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has slightly decreased but remains at a high level since March, with trading heat in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, steel, construction, consumer services, military, and communications above the 80th percentile [2][27] - Major indices have seen a decline in volatility, with most sectors' volatility below the 50th historical percentile [2][33] Group 3: Analyst Predictions - Analysts have simultaneously lowered the net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026, with specific sectors such as electric power and utilities, non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and real estate seeing upward adjustments in their profit forecasts [3][51] - The net profit forecasts for the ChiNext Index and CSI 500 for 2025/2026 have been raised, while those for the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 have been lowered [3][51] Group 4: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has increased, but there has been an overall net sell-off in A-shares, with a rise in the buy/sell ratio in sectors like pharmaceuticals, communications, and computers [5][31] - For stocks with Northbound holdings below 30 million shares, there has been a net buy in electronics, pharmaceuticals, and electric new energy sectors, while net selling occurred in food and beverage, agriculture, and public utilities [5][33] Group 5: Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has reached a new high for the year, with a net buy of 32.458 billion yuan, primarily in pharmaceuticals, electronics, and computers, while sectors like non-ferrous metals and coal saw net selling [6][11] - The proportion of financing purchases in sectors such as communications, media, and transportation has increased [6][38] Group 6: Fund Activity - Active equity funds have increased their positions, particularly in communications, military, and steel sectors, while ETFs have experienced overall net redemptions [8][45] - The correlation between active equity funds and large/mid-cap growth/value indices has risen, indicating a shift in investment strategies [8][48]

Group 1: Regulatory Environment - Recent regulatory actions signal a tightening of oversight in the capital markets, with a focus on compliance risks across various stages of company development [1] - The investigation covers companies with different business models, highlighting widespread compliance issues in the current market [1] Group 2: Company-Specific Issues - *ST Muban, a representative of transitioning companies, faces multiple compliance risks, including financial fraud and fund misuse, with a reported net profit of -1.18 billion in 2024 and revenue below the 300 million threshold for delisting [3][4] - Rebecca, a leading player in the global wig industry, is under investigation for alleged information disclosure violations, with a recent net loss of 1.18 billion in 2024 and previous penalties for failing to disclose financial information in a timely manner [5][6] - *ST Wanfang, on the brink of delisting, is facing scrutiny for information disclosure issues linked to its complex shareholding structure, with a significant portion of its shares frozen and set for auction [7] Group 3: Market Implications - The recent investigations reflect a broader trend of increasing regulatory scrutiny, with the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) intensifying efforts to combat financial fraud and improve market integrity [8] - In 2024, the CSRC handled 128 cases of financial fraud, imposing fines totaling 5.137 billion, indicating a robust enforcement environment [8] - The regulatory actions aim to transition the capital market from expansion to quality improvement, promoting a healthier ecosystem for compliant and well-governed companies [10]