2026年1月23日早盘，截至10:13，30年国债ETF(511090)上涨0.04%。流动性方面，30年国债ETF盘中换手 5.06%，成交10.95亿元。拉长时间看，截至1月22日，30年国债ETF近1年日均成交83.79亿元。规模方面， 30年国债ETF最新规模达216.25亿元。 国债期货开盘，30年期主力合约与昨日持平，10年期主力合约涨0.02%，5年期主力合约涨0.02%，2年期主 力合约跌0.01%。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，1月22日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了2102亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作 利率1.40%，投标量2102亿元，中标量2102亿元。Wind数据显示，当日1793亿元逆回购到期，据此计算， 单日净投放309亿元。 华泰固收称，近两周债市表现明显偏强。前期压制债市的核心担忧缓解（股市持续超预期+商品涨价与通 胀预期+债市供求），成为利率下行的核心支撑。 中信证券称，2025年配合宽松表态，央行资产负债表呈现总量扩张，但存在一些结构问题。总资产稳步扩 张，主要受买断式逆回购、MLF等扩表类工具所驱动，且两类工具占比已较为接近；对政府债券先升后降 或与国债买卖的重启和扩张相 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The bond market experienced a slight increase on January 20, with the 30-year Treasury ETF rising by 0.20% and the 30-year Treasury futures contract priced at 111.15 yuan, up 0.24% [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 324 billion yuan at a stable interest rate of 1.40% [1] - The yields on major government bonds showed minor fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by 0.1 basis points to 1.842% and the 30-year government bond yield increasing by 0.35 basis points to 2.3045% [1] Group 2: Interest Rates and Lending - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for one year and five years remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively, for eight consecutive months since June 2025 [1] - The weighted average interest rates for newly issued corporate loans and personal housing loans were approximately 3.1%, reflecting a decline of 2.5 and 2.6 percentage points since the second half of 2018 [2] - The PBOC's deputy governor indicated that there is still room for further rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, supported by stable exchange rates and improved bank net interest margins [2] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The 30-year Treasury ETF employs a sampling replication strategy, which allows for a more efficient and flexible investment approach compared to full replication [16] - This strategy significantly lowers the investment threshold, enabling participation with as little as 10,000 yuan, thus catering to small investors' needs for long-term government bond investments [17] - The ETF maintains liquidity by primarily holding active bonds and automatically adjusts its portfolio to keep duration stable, reducing the need for individual investors to frequently manage their holdings [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year government bond ETF is experiencing active trading, with a recent turnover of 12.64% and a total transaction volume of 2.914 billion yuan, indicating a robust market environment [1] Group 1: Market Activity - As of January 16, the average daily trading volume of the 30-year government bond ETF over the past year was 8.392 billion yuan [1] - The latest scale of the 30-year government bond ETF reached 22.995 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Conditions - The People's Bank of China plans to flexibly conduct government bond trading operations to maintain liquidity and support the smooth issuance of government bonds [1] - In 2025, the total net injection through open market operations was 6 trillion yuan, including a net repurchase of 3.8 trillion yuan and a net purchase of government bonds amounting to 120 billion yuan [1] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The 30-year government bond ETF employs a sampling replication strategy, which allows for a more efficient and flexible investment approach compared to full replication [6][19] - The ETF focuses on actively traded new bonds to ensure good liquidity in its portfolio [7] - The strategy aims to maintain the overall interest rate sensitivity and yield characteristics consistent with the 30-year government bonds [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing slight fluctuations, with the 30-year government bond ETF showing a minor decline, while the overall monetary policy remains supportive of the bond market due to recent structural monetary policy tools and potential for further rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of 10:00 AM, the 30-year government bond ETF (511090) decreased by 0.08%, and the 30-year government bond futures contract (TL2603) was priced at 111.00 yuan, down 0.17% with a trading volume of 26,316 contracts [1]. - The yields on major government bonds showed mixed movements, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by 0.1 basis points to 1.856%, while the 30-year government bond yield increased by 0.25 basis points to 2.305% [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Environment - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 158.3 billion yuan at a stable interest rate of 1.40%, indicating a consistent monetary policy stance [1]. - The bond market is supported by several favorable factors, including a reduction in government bond supply, significant net injections in the open market, and the central bank's reaffirmation of the potential for rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions within the year [1]. Group 3: Structural Monetary Policy Tools - According to Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, the recent rate cuts on structural monetary policy tools are seen as a supplementary measure within the current rate-cutting cycle, suggesting that the space for structural policy rate cuts is greater than for total policy rate reductions [2]. - Structural monetary policy tools face fewer constraints compared to total policy rate adjustments, allowing for a balance between protecting bank net interest margins and supporting real financing [2]. Group 4: ETF Strategy - The 30-year government bond ETF employs a "sampling replication" strategy, which allows for a more efficient and flexible approach to tracking the index without the need to purchase all underlying bonds [13][14]. - This strategy enhances liquidity by focusing on actively traded bonds, thus reducing the investment threshold and operational complexity for investors [14][18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the 30-year government bond ETF is actively traded and supported by the central bank's monetary policy to promote high-quality economic development [1][2] - As of January 15, the average daily trading volume of the 30-year government bond ETF over the past year was 84.00 billion yuan, with a current scale of 233.53 billion yuan [1] - The central bank conducted a 867 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a fixed interest rate of 1.40% on January 16, resulting in a net injection of 527 billion yuan for the day [1] Group 2 - According to the Central Economic Work Conference, fiscal policy in 2026 is expected to remain relatively proactive, but the overall deficit rate is high, which may limit the government's ability to increase bond financing significantly [2] - The social financing growth is expected to slow down, with a projected year-on-year increase of around 8.0% in 2026 [2] - The 30-year government bond ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-Year Government Bond Index, which consists of publicly issued 30-year government bonds [2] Group 3 - The 30-year government bond ETF employs a sampling replication strategy, which allows it to efficiently track the index without needing to purchase all constituent bonds [6][15] - This strategy enhances liquidity by focusing on actively traded bonds, making transactions smoother for investors [16] - The ETF's design reduces the investment threshold, allowing participation with as little as 10,000 yuan, thus catering to small investors [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the bond ETF market expanded with 29 products across credit bonds, interest - rate bonds, and convertible bond index funds, reaching a total scale of 256.546 billion yuan. Credit bond index ETFs grew rapidly after adding 8 market - making bond ETFs at the beginning of the year [2][7][10]. - The 8 market - making credit bond/company bond ETFs have differences in index characteristics and fund investment. Both indexes are better than the medium - and long - term pure bond fund index and may be a better choice for investors to allocate credit bond funds [2]. - Bond ETFs have advantages in trading mechanisms over over - the - counter products, with higher trading efficiency and "T + 0" trading, and some support physical redemption [2]. - In 2025, eligible credit bond ETFs can be included in the pledge - style repurchase pool, marking a new stage in China's bond market liquidity management tools [2]. - Bond ETFs generally use sampling replication and active management strategies, but it is difficult to obtain excess returns, with most products underperforming the benchmark index [2]. - China's bond ETF market mostly shows discount trading, and the discount/premium level is positively correlated with the liquidity of the underlying bond market, while other factors can also affect it [2]. Summary According to the Directory 1. 2025 Bond ETF Market Expansion - There are 29 bond ETF products in total, covering credit bonds, interest - rate bonds, and convertible bond index funds, with a total scale of 256.546 billion yuan. Credit bond index ETFs have 11 funds with a scale of 112.192 billion yuan, interest - rate bond index ETFs have 16 funds with a scale of 102.964 billion yuan, and there are 2 convertible bond index ETFs with a scale of 41.389 billion yuan [7][10]. 2. Differences Among 8 Market - Making Credit Bond/Company Bond ETFs - Divided into two types based on tracking indexes, with a total scale of 4.2403 billion yuan. Both indexes perform better than the medium - and long - term pure bond fund index [13]. - Index characteristic differences are reflected in industry distribution, enterprise nature, and duration. For example, the Shenzhen market - making credit bond index and the Shanghai market - making company bond index have different selection methods, component bond quantities, and weighted methods [15][22]. - Fund investment differences are shown in investment concentration, leverage level, and duration. Different products have different characteristics in these aspects [25]. 3. Differences in Bond ETF Trading Mechanisms Compared to Over - the - Counter Products - Bond ETFs have significant advantages in trading convenience, allowing trading in both the primary and secondary markets with "T + 0" trading, suitable for trading - oriented investors [30]. - There are two redemption methods: cash redemption and single - market physical redemption. Only a few products support only cash redemption, while others support single - market physical redemption [31]. 4. Bond ETFs Eligible for Pledge - Style Repurchase - Currently, 13 products including treasury bond ETFs, local government bond ETFs, or policy - financial bond ETFs can participate in pledge - style repurchase. In 2025, eligible credit bond ETFs can also be included in the pledge - style repurchase pool, with specific requirements for eligible credit bond funds [33][34]. 5. Sampling Replication + Active Management Strategy of Bond ETFs - Bond ETFs generally use sampling replication due to the large number of component bonds, fast portfolio adjustment, and weak liquidity of bond indexes. They also use strategies such as increasing duration, adding leverage, investing in treasury futures, and band trading to enhance returns, but it is difficult to obtain excess returns, with most products underperforming the benchmark index [36][37][50]. 6. Regularity of Bond ETF's Discount/Premium Rate - China's bond ETF market mostly shows discount trading, with over 60% of trading days of most products in a discount state. - The discount/premium level is positively correlated with the liquidity of the underlying bond market. For example, local government bond ETFs often trade at a discount with larger standard deviations of discount rates, and credit bond ETFs have more significant changes in discount/premium rates than interest - rate bond ETFs, except for the stable performance of newly - listed market - making credit bond ETFs in 2025 [53][56][59]. - Market sentiment, supply - demand relationship, policy environment, etc., can also affect the discount/premium of bond ETFs. For example, the discount/premium rate of urban investment bond ETFs has narrowed rapidly since Q3 2023 [61].