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AI不再是“唯一宠儿”?华尔街大佬正关注股市这些领域
Feng Huang Wang· 2025-09-30 03:14
Group 1 - Major global investors are focusing on long-term government spending to address geopolitical, technological, and demographic pressures, with investments in infrastructure, energy transition, healthcare, and defense [1][2] - UBS Chief Investment Officer Mark Haefele highlights that many investors have underestimated the impact of fiscal stimulus on real and financial assets due to concerns over rising fiscal debt in some countries [1][2] - Asset management firms are diversifying their investments in sectors such as electricity, resources, healthcare, and defense, following government actions [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. July tax cuts and spending bill extends previous tax policies and increases funding for border security and defense, contributing to a multi-trillion dollar increase in government debt [2] - European fiscal support, including Germany's €500 billion infrastructure fund and NATO members' commitment to raise defense spending to 3.5% of GDP, has garnered attention from Wall Street [2] - Generali Asset Management's Antonio Cavarero notes that the scale and durability of these fiscal commitments are unprecedented compared to previous market cycles, leading to structural adjustments over several years [2][3] Group 3 - Cavarero emphasizes that sectors like nuclear power, energy infrastructure, biotechnology innovation, and defense are critical and cannot be ignored by the market [3] - The S&P 500 index has risen nearly 14% this year, primarily driven by AI-related momentum, while the European Stoxx 600 index has seen a more modest increase of 9.5% [3] - The European aerospace and defense stock index has surged nearly 68%, indicating a rising importance of defense and industrial sectors amid a broader market dominated by AI [3] Group 4 - Nuveen's Chief Investment Officer Saira Malik anticipates that market gains will expand from tech stocks to cyclical stocks, small-cap stocks, and value stocks [3][4] - Malik advises investors to maintain a balanced portfolio with a slight preference for U.S. markets, while also identifying opportunities in infrastructure, utilities, and waste management as effective inflation hedges [4] - Both UBS and Nuveen emphasize the importance of active management over passive strategies in the current investment climate [4]
当前股票回报是否过高
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2025-09-29 02:54
来源:威灵顿投资管理,Refinitiv 。数据区间:1998年1月31日至2025年8月31日。指数包括: MSCI世界指数、ICE美银全球政府债指数、ICE美银全球公司债指数、ICE美银全球高收益债指数、标 普高盛商品指数。过往业绩不代表未来表现。 三、关注图表中的偏度。具有良好回报特征的资产类别(即在上涨年份表现强劲、下跌年份相对损 失较小),如信用债,对于资产配置者尤其有价值。相比之下,大宗商品的涨跌往往更加均衡。在这种 情况下,主动管理可能有助于引入或增强投资组合的正偏度。 对于需要重点关注的领域,笔者认为,可关注延长周期的结构性增长催化剂,包括财政刺激、政策 改革以及央行潜在的降息举措。此外,关注通胀走势及跨资产相关性上升的可能性。尽管央行在缓解通 胀方面已取得实质性进展,关税也尚未引发再通胀,但仍需密切关注全球财政扩张和贸易政策等潜在催 尽管宏观和地缘政治环境充满挑战,但全球股市自年初以来依然表现强劲。从MSCI全球指数来 看,全球股票自2025年年初以来上涨约15%,延续了过去几年的强劲走势。这种持续的韧性可能会令部 分投资者感到意外,尤其是考虑到自2022年熊市结束以来全球股票的年均回报率高 ...
华商基金总经理王小刚:锻造主动管理价值 守护投资者至上初心锻造主动管理价值 守护投资者至上初心
专题:北京公募基金高质量发展系列活动 新时代、新基金、新价值 本报记者 王宇露 随着公募基金高质量发展改革东风扬起,主动管理正重归舞台中央。唯有秉持专业主义的笃行者,才能 于时代浪潮中精准捕捉价值;唯有恪守持有人利益至上的守护者,方能于行业变革中筑牢长青根基。 站在二十周年新起点,华商基金将继续以深度研究夯实基础,以卓越业绩驱动发展,以厚重责任赢得信 任,在中国经济转型升级的星火燎原中,与时代共进、与价值同行。 坚守主动管理:在坚守中扎根,积星火而燎原 在被动投资呼啸扩张的年代,主动管理是一条艰难而必要的道路。 2019年至2020年,主动管理迎来历史上相对辉煌的时期,产品业绩节节攀升,行业规模不断扩大,为持 有人创造了良好的收益和体验。然而2021年中市场见顶后,业绩承压、规模缩水、投资者质疑,主动管 理经历了三年多的困难时期。市场偏好开始转向红利投资、被动投资,这让主动管理承受了巨大压力。 因为难,所以才有价值。华商基金没有转身追逐风口,而是选择了一条更孤独的路,把"主动管理坚守 者"写进基因——以专业立身,不主张追逐短期赛道,而是依托自身深厚的积累,从专业角度出发,去 捕捉经济发展和产业变迁中最具生命力 ...
新时代·新基金·新价值——北京公募基金高质量发展在行动 | 华商基金总经理王小刚:锻造主动管理价值 守护投资者至上初心
随着公募基金高质量发展改革持续推进,主动管理正重归舞台中央。唯有秉持专业主义的笃行者,才能 在时代浪潮中精准捕捉价值;唯有恪守持有人利益至上准则的守护者,方能于行业变革中筑牢长青根 基。 主动管理不仅是一种投资策略,更是一种责任和使命。 主动管理的核心价值在于"发现价值,重估价值"。在中国经济高质量发展和新旧动能转换的背景下,必 然会出现一批具有市场影响力甚至全球影响力的上市公司,而主动管理机构的价值发现作用在这一过程 中不可或缺。通过专业研究,主动管理机构能够将资源配置到代表中国经济发展方向和经济转型趋势的 产业和公司中,助力完成经济转型的全过程。 人才培养与投研建设:平台筑基,文化引领 "华商基金在主动管理方面的能力优势,依靠的是从公司成立到现在不同阶段的管理者和不同时代特点 的基金经理共同积累和传承下来的。"王小刚表示,这背后,既有优秀人才的推动作用,也离不开有效 的投研平台和制度。 站在二十周年新起点,华商基金将继续以深度研究夯实基础,以卓越业绩驱动发展,以厚重责任赢得信 任,在中国经济转型升级的星火燎原中,与时代共进、与价值同行。 坚守主动管理:在坚守中扎根,积星火而燎原 在被动投资呼啸扩张的年代, ...
新时代·新基金·新价值——北京公募基金高质量发展在行动 | 锻造主动管理价值 守护投资者至上初心
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of active management in the mutual fund industry, highlighting the need for professional commitment and a focus on long-term value creation amidst market challenges and regulatory reforms [1][3]. Group 1: Active Management - Active management has faced significant challenges since 2021, with performance pressures and a shift in market preference towards passive investment strategies [2]. - Despite these challenges, the company has chosen to remain committed to active management, focusing on deep research and capturing value from economically vital companies [2][4]. - The recent regulatory reforms and policies from the Chinese government have created a favorable environment for the resurgence of active management [3]. Group 2: Talent Development and Research - The company places a strong emphasis on talent development, with a research team of 65 members and an average industry experience of nearly 8 years, including 17 senior fund managers with over 10 years of experience [5]. - A structured research hierarchy is in place to ensure effective knowledge transfer and continuous improvement in investment strategies [6]. - The company promotes a culture of communication and collaboration among research and investment teams to enhance the efficiency of research-to-investment conversion [7]. Group 3: Performance and Strategy - Performance is viewed as the lifeline of mutual funds, with the company committed to driving growth through strong investment returns rather than relying on high fees [8]. - The company actively participates in innovative product trials and has adopted a floating fee structure to align interests with investors [9]. - The company emphasizes a long-term focus on core competencies and responsibility, which has been crucial for its steady development over the past 20 years [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The mutual fund industry is expected to evolve with balanced development, combining both index and active management strategies to uncover investment opportunities [10]. - The company aims to continue its commitment to active management, supported by research and performance, to contribute to the high-quality development of the Chinese economy [10].
华商基金总经理王小刚: 锻造主动管理价值 守护投资者至上初心
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of active management in the mutual fund industry, highlighting the need for professional commitment and a focus on long-term value creation amidst market challenges [1][2][4]. Group 1: Active Management Strategy - Active management has faced significant challenges since 2021, with performance pressures and a shift in market preference towards passive investment strategies [2][3]. - 华商基金 has chosen to remain committed to active management, focusing on deep research and capturing value from economically vital companies rather than chasing short-term trends [2][3]. - The company has diversified its active equity styles, enhancing its product offerings to include various strategies such as growth, balanced, value, and cyclical investments [3]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment and Industry Reform - Recent regulatory reforms, including the Central Political Bureau's meeting and the State Council's opinions, have encouraged the development of high-quality mutual funds and supported active management [3][9]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has introduced policies to promote the innovation and development of actively managed equity funds, creating a favorable environment for 华商基金's strategic changes [3][9]. Group 3: Talent Development and Research Infrastructure - 华商基金 emphasizes the importance of talent development in active management, with a research team of 65 members and an average experience of nearly 8 years [6]. - The company has established a structured talent development system, ensuring a clear growth path for researchers and fund managers [6][7]. - A robust research platform, "华商金海螺," has been developed to integrate and digitize research data, enhancing the efficiency of the investment process [7]. Group 4: Performance and Investor Relations - Performance is identified as the lifeline of mutual funds, with 华商基金 focusing on generating returns to drive growth rather than relying on high fees [8]. - The company has adopted a floating fee structure linked to performance, aligning its interests with those of investors [9]. - 华商基金 prioritizes investor engagement, especially during market downturns, promoting a rational investment approach and guiding investors towards long-term value [9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The mutual fund industry is expected to evolve with the ongoing technological revolution and AI advancements, leading to a balanced development of both index and active management strategies [10]. - 华商基金 aims to continue its commitment to active management, leveraging research and performance to create sustainable returns for investors while contributing to China's economic development [10].
锻造主动管理价值 守护投资者至上初心
● 本报记者 王宇露 随着公募基金高质量发展改革持续推进,主动管理正重归舞台中央。唯有秉持专业主义的笃行者,才能 在时代浪潮中精准捕捉价值;唯有恪守持有人利益至上准则的守护者,方能于行业变革中筑牢长青根 基。 站在二十周年新起点,华商基金将继续以深度研究夯实基础,以卓越业绩驱动发展,以厚重责任赢得信 任,在中国经济转型升级的星火燎原中,与时代共进、与价值同行。 坚守主动管理: 在坚守中扎根,积星火而燎原 在被动投资呼啸扩张的年代,主动管理是一条艰难而必要的道路。 2019年至2020年,主动管理迎来历史上相对辉煌的时期,产品业绩节节攀升,行业规模不断扩大,为持 有人创造了良好的收益和体验。然而,在2021年中市场见顶后,业绩承压、规模缩水、投资者质疑,主 动管理经历了三年多的困难时期。市场偏好开始转向红利投资、被动投资,这让主动管理承受了巨大压 力。 因为难,所以才有价值。华商基金没有转身追逐风口,而是选择了一条更孤独的路,把"主动管理坚守 者"写进基因——以专业立身,不主张追逐短期赛道,而是依托自身深厚的积累,从专业角度出发,去 捕捉经济发展和产业变迁中最具生命力的公司。 (下转A02版) (上接A01版) ...
“9·24”一周年,基民收益如何?近2000份问卷揭秘
自2024年9月24日一揽子金融政策落地实施以来,A股市场持续释放积极信号。其中,上证指数表现尤为亮眼,两度站上3800点整数关口,并于近期刷新 十年新高,A股市场升温明显。 截至2025年9月20日,全市场共有40只基金年内净值翻倍,887只基金年内净值涨超50%,超12000只基金实现正收益。在这波上涨行情里,手握基金的基 民们表现如何?证券时报基金研究院联合蚂蚁基金发起了《2025基金投资者偏好与信心调研》,基民们用1980份有效问卷给出了答案。 先看收益:近一年超92%主动权益基民正收益 近一年,主动权益基金一路回升,调研结果显示,超92%的主动权益基民获得了正收益。而把时间拉长看,自投资基金以来,有16.2%的基民靠权益基金 赚了30%以上,41%的人收益落在10%—30%区间。 具体来看,这种转变体现在三个关键策略: 其一,"逢低补仓+定投"构筑双保险,低位布局成共识。面对市场波动,基民没有盲目追涨杀跌,而是以更理性的姿态把握布局窗口。在近一年时间中, 35.3%的基民选择"逢低补仓",主动把握阶段性调整中的入场机会;41.7%的基民坚持了"定投"策略,通过长期的分批投入来平滑市场波动。这两大主流 ...
“9·24”一周年,基民收益如何?近2000份问卷揭秘
券商中国· 2025-09-23 10:57
Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown significant improvement since the implementation of a comprehensive financial policy package on September 24, 2024, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high and demonstrating a clear upward trend [2]. Market Performance - As of September 20, 2025, 40 funds have doubled their net value this year, and 887 funds have increased by over 50%, with more than 12,000 funds achieving positive returns [3]. Investor Sentiment and Behavior - Over 92% of active equity fund investors reported positive returns in the past year, with 16.2% earning over 30% and 41% earning between 10% and 30% since investing [4]. - The majority of investors (72.6%) hold active equity funds, with over 80% having recouped their investments or made profits [6]. - More than 60% of investors believe that a mix of equity and bond investments is a more stable strategy, indicating an increased awareness of diversifying to mitigate return volatility [6]. Investment Strategies - Investors are shifting from passive holding to active management, with over 80% engaging in strategies like buying on dips, regular investments, or reallocating assets in response to market changes [8]. - Key strategies include: - "Buying on dips and regular investments" as a consensus for low-position accumulation, with 35.3% of investors opting for this approach and 41.7% adhering to a regular investment strategy [10]. - "Dynamic reallocation and timely profit/loss management" becoming a norm, with 31.1% of investors actively switching sectors and 21% establishing clear stop-loss/profit rules [10]. - A significant decrease in passive investors, with only 12.9% not adjusting their holdings, reflecting a new habit of dynamic portfolio optimization [11]. Market Outlook - Over 66.2% of investors are optimistic about the A-share market's performance in the next 1-2 years, with 28.8% being very optimistic [12]. - The recovery in investor confidence is attributed to favorable policies implemented since September 2024, which have injected substantial capital into the market and facilitated a shift from a financing market to an investment market [14]. - The investment goals of investors are shifting towards more stable returns, with 51% targeting a 3%-10% increase and 20.7% aiming for a 10%-20% growth [15].
大资管,重要研判!
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-09-21 04:04
Core Insights - The forum discussed the differentiated survival strategies for securities asset management in the context of evolving market demands and regulatory changes [1][5][6] - Key industry leaders emphasized the importance of absolute returns and tailored investment products to meet client needs [3][14][16] Group 1: Market Trends and Insights - The market has seen significant institutional investment, particularly from insurance funds, with expectations for new opportunities in the second half of the year [2][26] - The equity market is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by improving liquidity and economic fundamentals [21][26] - Four main investment themes are anticipated to drive market rotation: technology innovation led by AI, high-dividend stable assets, Chinese companies' overseas expansion, and domestic supply-demand reversals [21][22] Group 2: Differentiated Strategies - Securities asset management firms are shifting from a scale-oriented approach to one focused on investor interests, emphasizing research capabilities and long-term investment teams [10][12] - Companies are encouraged to develop unique product lines that provide absolute returns and meet specific investment goals, ensuring long-term viability [3][14] - The integration of quantitative and subjective investment strategies is seen as a way to enhance market understanding and improve investment outcomes [18][19] Group 3: Product Development and Client Focus - Firms are focusing on creating products that deliver value to clients, particularly in absolute return strategies and customized investment solutions [14][16] - The importance of a sales-driven approach in asset management is highlighted, with a need to educate clients on asset allocation and investment strategies [16][17] - The development of innovative financial products, such as ETFs and customized investment vehicles, is crucial for meeting diverse investor needs [12][13] Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is positioned for positive developments, with expectations of increased capital inflows and a favorable economic environment in the coming year [21][26] - Companies are advised to focus on sectors with reasonable valuations and strong competitive positions, particularly in technology and manufacturing [24][26] - The emphasis on long-term investment strategies and the cultivation of specialized research teams will be vital for future growth in the asset management industry [10][12]