Group 1: Stock Index Futures Market Overview - The four major index futures contracts experienced an overall increase last week, with the CSI 1000 index futures rising the most by 5.21%, while the SSE 50 index futures had the smallest increase of 2.19% [3][11] - The average trading volume for the current, next, and quarterly contracts of IF, IC, IH, and IM increased compared to the previous week, with IH showing the largest increase of 65.56% and IM the smallest at 30.52% [3][11] - As of last Friday's close, the annualized basis rates for the current contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH were -1.00%, -7.95%, -8.22%, and 1.71% respectively, indicating a narrowing of the basis for IF, IC, and IM, while IH shifted from a discount to a premium [3][11] Group 2: Cross-Period Price Differences - As of last Friday's close, the cross-period price difference rates for the current contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH were at the 18.10%, 32.40%, 14.20%, and 9.00% percentiles since 2019 [4][12] - Currently, there are no arbitrage opportunities for the IF main contract based on the closing prices, as the required basis rates for both long and short arbitrage strategies do not meet the necessary thresholds [4][12] Group 3: Dividend Forecasts - After August, the strength of dividends is expected to weaken, but it will still impact the four major index futures. The estimated impact of dividends on the September main contracts for the CSI 300, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 indices is 3.62, 1.40, 1.39, and 0.89 respectively [5][11] - The correlation between basis changes and dividend impacts, as well as investor trading sentiment, is expected to remain high under unchanged trading rules for index futures [5][13] Group 4: Market Expectations - The shift to a premium structure for the IH and IF main contracts, along with the continued narrowing of the discount for IC and IM, indicates a sustained positive sentiment towards the A-share market [5][13] - Recent developments, such as the US-China tariff agreement and supportive monetary policy from the central bank, are expected to maintain a stable or narrowing basis in the upcoming week [5][13] Group 5: Recent Sell-Side Strategy Insights - A consensus among 10 brokerage firms indicates that incremental capital is continuously entering the market, with increased activity from foreign and insurance capital, while 8 firms noted a high market sentiment and active trading [6][37] - There is a general positive outlook on technology growth, dividend stocks, and upstream resource sectors among the brokerage firms surveyed [6][37]