有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/08/25 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/08/25 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 78825 9636 8.17 三月 78630 9715 8.10 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.16 171.81 现货出口 -396.63 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/08/25 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22190 2770 8.01 三月 22260 2773 6.03 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.65 -1764.99 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/08/25 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20710 2588 8.00 三月 20595 2586 7.99 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.45 -1162.37 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/08/25 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 118400 14749 8.03 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.24 -1806.58 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/08/25 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公 ...

周五下午，据央视新闻消息，福建大田一煤矿发生井下作业人员伤亡事件，致7人遇难。消息出炉后，焦煤期货主力合约尾盘快速拉升，并带动焦炭等品 种集体反弹。 周五夜盘时段，焦煤期货多个合约大涨，截至夜盘收盘，主力合约涨6.18%，重回1200元/吨大关。 | | 最新 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤2509 | 1074.0 | +4.32% | | 期货 im2509 | | | | 焦煤2510 | 1099.5 | +4.76% | | 期货 im2510 | | | | 焦煤 2511 | 1139.5 | +5.46% | | 期货 im2511 | | | | 焦煤2512 | 1174.5 | +5.72% | | 期货 im2512 | | | | 焦煤2601 | 1212.0 | +6.18% | | 期货 im2601 | | | | 焦煤2602 | 1227.5 | +6.00% | | 期货 m2602 | | | | 焦煤2603 | 1239.5 | +5.99% | | 期货 jm2603 | | | | 焦煤2604 | 1248.0 | +6.0 ...

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/08/22 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/08/22 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 78780 9618 8.19 三月 78490 9699 8.11 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.17 5.76 现货出口 -338.37 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/08/22 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22230 2768 8.03 三月 22225 2776 6.04 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.66 -1755.13 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/08/22 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20680 2575 8.03 三月 20550 2576 8.01 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.47 -1135.10 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/08/22 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 118850 14798 8.03 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.25 -1991.00 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 55 10 理 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the increasing importance of the futures market as a professional risk management platform amid profound adjustments in the international economic order and rising uncertainties in the global economy [1] - The futures market's service capabilities have been continuously enhanced, with a rich variety of products and tools introduced, including new futures contracts for polysilicon, casting aluminum alloy, pure benzene, and propylene, bringing the total number of listed commodity futures and options to 131 [1] - The participation of industrial clients in the futures market has significantly increased, with a year-on-year growth of 12.2% in average daily trading volume for industrial clients in 2024, and the total position of industrial clients in 48 major products equivalent to over 200 million tons in the spot market [1] Group 2 - The influence of futures prices has been continuously rising, with domestic application scenarios expanding, and various forms such as hedging, arbitrage, and rights trading being widely adopted [2] - The futures market is increasingly integrated into the national development agenda, supporting rural revitalization and ensuring food security through innovative models like "insurance + futures," while also serving the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry [2] - Among the listed commodity futures and options, 84 are industrial products, accounting for 64%, providing solid support for market participants in stabilizing operations and enhancing supply chain security amid increasing uncertainties [2]

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Market Overview - The four major index futures contracts experienced an overall increase last week, with the CSI 1000 index futures rising the most by 5.21%, while the SSE 50 index futures had the smallest increase of 2.19% [3][11] - The average trading volume for the current, next, and quarterly contracts of IF, IC, IH, and IM increased compared to the previous week, with IH showing the largest increase of 65.56% and IM the smallest at 30.52% [3][11] - As of last Friday's close, the annualized basis rates for the current contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH were -1.00%, -7.95%, -8.22%, and 1.71% respectively, indicating a narrowing of the basis for IF, IC, and IM, while IH shifted from a discount to a premium [3][11] Group 2: Cross-Period Price Differences - As of last Friday's close, the cross-period price difference rates for the current contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH were at the 18.10%, 32.40%, 14.20%, and 9.00% percentiles since 2019 [4][12] - Currently, there are no arbitrage opportunities for the IF main contract based on the closing prices, as the required basis rates for both long and short arbitrage strategies do not meet the necessary thresholds [4][12] Group 3: Dividend Forecasts - After August, the strength of dividends is expected to weaken, but it will still impact the four major index futures. The estimated impact of dividends on the September main contracts for the CSI 300, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 indices is 3.62, 1.40, 1.39, and 0.89 respectively [5][11] - The correlation between basis changes and dividend impacts, as well as investor trading sentiment, is expected to remain high under unchanged trading rules for index futures [5][13] Group 4: Market Expectations - The shift to a premium structure for the IH and IF main contracts, along with the continued narrowing of the discount for IC and IM, indicates a sustained positive sentiment towards the A-share market [5][13] - Recent developments, such as the US-China tariff agreement and supportive monetary policy from the central bank, are expected to maintain a stable or narrowing basis in the upcoming week [5][13] Group 5: Recent Sell-Side Strategy Insights - A consensus among 10 brokerage firms indicates that incremental capital is continuously entering the market, with increased activity from foreign and insurance capital, while 8 firms noted a high market sentiment and active trading [6][37] - There is a general positive outlook on technology growth, dividend stocks, and upstream resource sectors among the brokerage firms surveyed [6][37]

铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/08/19 有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/08/19 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/08/19 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 79280 9660 8.22 三月 78910 9757 8.11 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.18 96.04 现货出口 -446.22 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/08/19 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22300 2781 8.02 三月 22360 2790 6.02 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.67 -1806.11 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/08/19 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20550 2596 7.91 三月 20570 2596 7.92 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.47 -1443.86 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/08/19 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 119300 14860 8.03 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.26 -1996.18 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on August 18, 2025 [1][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On August 18, 2025, the domestic spot price was 79130, LME spot price was 9671, and the spot ratio was 8.19. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.17, with a profit of 79.57. The domestic March price was 79050, LME March price was 9765, and the March ratio was 8.09 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22450, LME spot price was 2830, and the spot ratio was 7.93. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.66, with a profit of - 2054.98. The domestic March price was 22530, LME March price was 2836, and the March ratio was 5.92 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20710, LME spot price was 2621, and the spot ratio was 7.90. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.47, with a profit of - 1487.44. The domestic March price was 20750, LME March price was 2620, and the March ratio was 7.91 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 119400, LME spot price was 14847, and the spot ratio was 8.04. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.26, with a profit of - 1524.77 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16625, LME spot price was 1942, and the spot ratio was 8.60. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.87, with a profit of - 519.03. The domestic March price was 16855, LME March price was 1986, and the March ratio was 11.33 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On August 18, 2025, the spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, and 五月 - 现货月 were 80, 70, 60, and 60 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 497, 892, 1296, and 1700 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, and 五月 - 现货月 were 25, 50, 65, and 55 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 337, 458, and 580 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, and 五月 - 现货月 were 55, 35, - 10, and - 50 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 330, 446, and 561 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, and 五月 - 现货月 were 120, 125, 145, and 175 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 209, 313, 418, and 523 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, and 五月 - 现货月 were - 400, - 230, - 30, and 210 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 1190, and the theoretical spread was 5541 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads for the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot were - 170 and - 90 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 483 and 933 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads for the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot were 30 and 55 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 204 and 335 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads for the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot were 105 and 225 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 199 and 310 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On August 18, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.51, 3.81, 4.69, 0.92, 1.23, and 0.75 respectively, and for London (three - continuous) were 3.50, 3.75, 4.93, 0.93, 1.32, and 0.71 respectively [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Report's Core View - The report provides cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on August 14, 2025. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price is 79,510 (domestic) and 9,763 (LME) with a ratio of 8.11; March price is 79,380 (domestic) and 9,842 (LME) with a ratio of 8.05. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.16, and the profit is - 39.06. Spot export profit is 42.08 [1]. - **Zinc**: Spot price is 22,560 (domestic) and 2,840 (LME) with a ratio of 7.95; March price is 22,640 (domestic) and 2,841 (LME) with a ratio of 5.94. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.65, and the profit is - 1,994.05 [1]. - **Aluminum**: Spot price is 20,760 (domestic) and 2,624 (LME) with a ratio of 7.91; March price is 20,765 (domestic) and 2,629 (LME) with a ratio of 7.91. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.48, and the profit is - 1,492.93 [1]. - **Nickel**: Spot price is 121,750 (domestic) and 15,099 (LME) with a ratio of 8.06. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.25, and the profit is - 1,531.68 [1]. - **Lead**: Spot price is 16,725 (domestic) and 1,974 (LME) with a ratio of 8.48; March price is 16,940 (domestic) and 2,017 (LME) with a ratio of 11.21. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.85, and the profit is - 719.66 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of next - month - spot, March - spot, April - spot, and May - spot are 370, 370, 390, and 410 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 497, 892, 1296, and 1700 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads of next - month - spot, March - spot, April - spot, and May - spot are 0, 40, 40, and 25 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 216, 338, 460, and 582 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads of next - month - spot, March - spot, April - spot, and May - spot are 35, 10, - 35, and - 70 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 215, 331, 446, and 562 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads of next - month - spot, March - spot, April - spot, and May - spot are 30, 40, 60, and 85 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 210, 315, 421, and 526 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads of next - month - spot, March - spot, April - spot, and May - spot are - 20, 110, 310, and 600 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is 1250, and the theoretical spread is 5593 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of current - month contract - spot and next - month contract - spot are - 430 and - 60 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 23 and 517 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads of current - month contract - spot and next - month contract - spot are 40 and 40 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 80 and 211 (also mentioned 78 and 207) [4][5]. - **Lead**: The spreads of current - month contract - spot and next - month contract - spot are 175 and 205 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 105 and 217 [4]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - For cross - variety ratios on August 14, 2025: Copper/Zinc (Shanghai "continuous three") is 3.51, Copper/Aluminum is 3.82, Copper/Lead is 4.69, Aluminum/Zinc is 0.92, Aluminum/Lead is 1.23, Lead/Zinc is 0.75; LME (continuous three) ratios are 3.47, 3.75, 4.93, 0.92, 1.32, and 0.70 respectively [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Report's Core View The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on August 13, 2025, which helps investors understand the current price relationships and potential arbitrage opportunities in the non - ferrous metals market [1][4][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On August 13, 2025, the domestic spot price was 79,160, the LME price was 9,681, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.17 with a profit of 84.82. The March price had a ratio of 8.09 [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,510, the LME price was 2,823, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.66 with a profit of - 1927.11. The March price ratio was 5.99 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,640, the LME price was 2,600, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.49 with a profit of - 1445.13. The March price ratio was 7.94 [1]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 121,600, the LME price was 15,079, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.25 with a profit of - 2046.03 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,775, the LME price was 1,966, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.86 with a profit of - 633.39. The March price ratio was 11.25 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On August 13, 2025, the spreads between the next month, March, April, and May and the spot month were 0, 60, 20, and 10 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 497, 892, 1296, and 1700 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were 35, 55, 55, and 35 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 216, 338, 460, and 582 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 15, - 15, - 60, and - 80 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 330, 446, and 561 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 80, 90, 105, and 135 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 209, 314, 420, and 525 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads were 540, 670, 840, and 1120 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 1330, and the theoretical spread was 5601 [4]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking On August 13, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.49, 3.82, 4.67, 0.91, 1.22, and 0.75 respectively, and in London (three - continuous) were 3.46, 3.76, 4.88, 0.92, 1.30, and 0.71 respectively [5].

铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/08/12 有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/08/12 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/08/12 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 79140 9676 8.12 三月 79050 9759 8.10 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.18 -117.15 现货出口 -247.43 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/08/12 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22530 2836 7.94 三月 22610 2840 5.94 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.66 -2036.17 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/08/12 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20630 2609 7.91 三月 20690 2617 7.89 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.50 -1542.06 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/08/12 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 120900 15028 8.05 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.26 -1921.73 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、 ...