铅：跨市套利跟踪 2026/02/27 有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2026/02/27 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2026/02/27 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 101830 13256 7.70 三月 102930 13326 7.70 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 7.78 -786.94 现货出口 68.84 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2026/02/27 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 24460 3366 7.27 三月 24625 3383 4.95 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.16 -2999.77 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2026/02/27 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 23490 3151 - 三月 23920 3164 7.52 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.20 - 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2026/02/27 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 138000 17805 7.75 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 7.91 31.99 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 16575 1944 8.51 三月 16800 1990 12.34 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.42 182.48 免责声明: 以 ...

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2026/02/25 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2026/02/25 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 101575 12973 7.72 三月 101810 13062 7.81 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 7.82 -409.36 现货出口 -841.74 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2026/02/25 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 24650 3366 7.32 三月 24680 3398 4.93 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.20 -2960.82 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2026/02/25 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 23390 3087 7.58 三月 23635 3114 7.58 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.25 -2082.64 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2026/02/25 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 136650 17470 7.82 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 7.96 -1163.71 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵 ...

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2026/02/24 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2026/02/24 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 100275 12788 7.80 三月 100630 12895 7.82 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 7.83 -565.83 现货出口 - 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2026/02/24 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 24340 3322 7.33 三月 24250 3353 4.97 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.23 -3015.20 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2026/02/24 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 23160 3028 7.65 三月 23265 3063 7.62 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.29 -1934.06 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2026/02/24 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 133900 17037 7.86 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 7.99 -1190.59 跨期套利跟踪 2026/02/24 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 510 760 990 980 理论价差 601 1101 1609 2117 锌 次月- ...

国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 16600 1941 8.54 三月 16700 1988 12.33 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.49 101.54 跨期套利跟踪 2026/02/13 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 590 940 1170 1230 理论价差 611 1119 1637 2155 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 115 135 185 190 理论价差 226 357 489 621 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 25 105 160 220 理论价差 229 359 489 619 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 45 50 90 135 理论价差 208 313 417 521 镍 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货 月 五月-现货月 价差 1020 1240 1570 1590 锡 5-1 价差 -650 理论价差 8044 期现套利跟踪 2026/02/13 铜 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -290 300 理论价差 87 7 ...

铅：跨市套利跟踪 2026/02/12 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 16625 1930 8.59 三月 16755 1978 12.43 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.50 165.28 跨期套利跟踪 2026/02/12 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 1030 1310 1480 1500 理论价差 608 1114 1628 2143 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 185 240 280 315 理论价差 225 356 487 618 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 225 295 360 405 理论价差 228 357 487 616 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 100 115 165 215 理论价差 208 312 417 521 镍 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货 月 五月-现货月 价差 6270 6570 6910 6960 锡 5-1 价差 1500 理论价差 8068 期现套利跟踪 2026/02/12 铜 当月合约-现货 次月合 ...

- The report discusses the performance of the four major stock index futures contracts (IF, IC, IM, IH) over the past week, highlighting that IH had the highest increase of 0.90%, while IC experienced the largest decline of -0.08%[3][11] - The average trading volume of the contracts showed mixed performance, with IC increasing the most by 2.72%, and IH decreasing the most by -16.58%[3][11] - The average open interest of all four contracts declined, with IF showing the largest decrease of -11.61%, and IM the smallest decrease of -0.69%[3][11] - The annualized basis rates for the current contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH were -2.13%, -4.76%, -8.13%, and -0.44%, respectively, as of last Friday's close[3][11] - The inter-month spread rates for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts were at the 3.10%, 0.60%, 11.80%, and 31.30% percentiles of their historical distributions since 2019, with IM and IH at normal levels and IF and IC at relatively low levels[4][12] - Dividend forecasts for the next year indicate that the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, SSE 50 Index, and CSI 1000 Index will impact index points by 81.23, 90.90, 72.77, and 68.78, respectively[4][12] - The report provides a formula for calculating forward and reverse arbitrage returns in index futures trading, considering factors such as transaction costs, margin ratios, and risk-free rates[46] - The dividend estimation method involves using historical dividend patterns and EPS data to predict future dividend points, with specific formulas provided for calculating the impact on index points[48][52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Report Core View - The report provides cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, and lead on February 10, 2026 [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On February 10, 2026, the domestic spot price was 101510, the LME price was 12992, and the ratio was 7.67; the three - month domestic price was 102050, the LME price was 13070, and the ratio was 7.80. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 7.86, with a profit of - 606.22, and the profit for spot export was - 266.73 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 24700, the LME price was 3336, and the ratio was 7.40; the three - month domestic price was 24565, the LME price was 3360, and the ratio was 4.94. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.25, with a profit of - 2829.45 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 23400, the LME price was 3062, and the ratio was 7.64; the three - month domestic price was 23620, the LME price was 3088, and the ratio was 7.66. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.33, with a profit of - 2097.21 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 133550, the LME price was 17055, and the ratio was 7.83. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.00, with a profit of - 2276.34 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16425, the LME price was 1909, and the ratio was 8.60; the three - month domestic price was 16605, the LME price was 1959, and the ratio was 12.61. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.52, with a profit of 160.56 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were 2030, 2240, 2430, and 2360 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 601, 1100, 1608, and 2116 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 85, 110, 150, and 155 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 225, 357, 488, and 619 respectively [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 255, 335, 405, and 470 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 227, 356, 484, and 613 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 95, 115, 170, and 200 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 207, 311, 414, and 518 respectively [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 3290, 3530, 3790, and 3770 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The spread for 5 - 1 was - 2650, and the theoretical spread was 7925 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were - 1720 and 310 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were - 64 and 791 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 245 and - 160 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 71 and 214 (also mentioned as 82 and 258) respectively [4][5] - **Lead**: The spreads were 65 and 160 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 104 and 214 respectively [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On February 10, 2026, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for the Shanghai (three - continuous) contracts were 4.15, 4.32, 6.15, 0.96, 1.42, and 0.68 respectively, and for the London (three - continuous) contracts were 3.90, 4.22, 6.69, 0.93, 1.59, and 0.58 respectively [5]

玻璃：市场传闻扰动 低位震荡偏多 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2026-2-9 【产业服务总部 | 黑色金属团队】 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 01 投资策略：震荡偏多 p 主要逻辑 行情回顾：上周玻璃期货先涨后跌，周线报收上影小阳线。江苏中玻两条产线停产，外加部分传闻，推涨盘面，但基本面 逻辑始终压制价格，盘面重回原先震荡区间。基差方面，沙河安全-124元/吨，湖北明弘48元/吨，湖北地区价格偏高，关注沙 河地区期现套利机会。月间方面，5-9价差-99元/吨，冷修预期推涨远月，目前反套空间不大，等待为宜。供给方面，上周两 条产线停产，日熔量降至15万吨以下。库存方面，湖北持平，沙河低价策略下，厂家库存降至低位。需求方面， 部分区域受制 镜出口订单赶单支撑，出货维持尚可。华东除集团型深加工及地方性大型加工厂存部分出口订单及年底尾单赶工，其余多数厂 家陆续停工放假。纯碱方面，近期出现较多检修，盘面绝对价格偏低，建议观望。 后市展望：行业传闻扰动不断，虽然玻璃上方压力仍存，但期货价格再次降至相对低位，主力到期前仍有时间酝酿变数。 技术上 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The casting aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range. The market sentiment has significantly cooled this week, and the AD price has declined. However, aluminum enterprises in the spot market are holding up prices, leading to a rapid expansion of the spot premium. Before the Spring Festival, the industry's operating rate is expected to continue to decline, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment, with limited support for prices [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction - Volume and Price - The document shows data on the price differences between different AD contracts (AD00 - 01, AD01 - 02, AD02 - 03) and the trends of capital precipitation, trading volume, and open interest from 2025 - 10 to 2026 - 01 [7]. 3.2 Transaction - Arbitrage 3.2.1 Inter - period Positive Arbitrage Cost Calculation - For the AD2602 and AD2603 contracts on February 6, 2026, the fixed cost of the inter - period positive arbitrage in the casting aluminum alloy (including VAT, trading fees, etc.) is 15.32 yuan/ton, and the floating cost (including storage fees, capital costs, etc.) is 49.00 yuan/ton, with a total cost of 64.32 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2.2 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - Based on the reference price of Baotai Group, the spot price of the casting aluminum alloy is 23,600 yuan/ton. The total cost of spot - futures arbitrage, including storage fees, capital costs, and registration costs, is 23,751.9 yuan/ton [12]. 3.3 Supply - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level in the same period, and social inventories are continuously decreasing. The import of scrap aluminum is also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. For example, in December 2025, the import of aluminum scrap and waste was 194,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.82% [14][16]. 3.4 Supply - Recycled Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has decreased, and the price difference between recycled and primary aluminum has increased. The regional price difference of the casting aluminum alloy shows certain seasonal patterns. The weekly operating rate of the casting aluminum alloy has decreased, while the monthly operating rate remains at a high level. The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and the current estimated cost is above the break - even line [26][31][36]. - The factory inventory of the casting aluminum alloy has increased significantly, while the social inventory has decreased slightly. The import window for the casting aluminum alloy is closed [43][44]. - The production and inventory data of recycled aluminum bars are provided. The production of recycled aluminum bars in different regions and the proportion of factory inventory in different regions are also presented [47][49]. 3.5 Demand - Terminal Consumption - Terminal consumption, especially in the automotive sector, shows resilience, which is transmitted to the die - casting industry. The production data of new energy vehicles, fuel vehicles, motorcycles, and small household appliances from 2020 to 2025 are presented, as well as the year - on - year change in the PPI of auto parts and the monthly value of the auto inventory warning index [52][53].

Group 1: Arbitrage Strategy Overview - The term "IRR" refers to the Implied Repo Rate, which indicates the theoretical annualized return from buying cash bonds and shorting futures for delivery[12] - The two main arbitrage strategies are "positive arbitrage" (shorting futures while buying cash bonds) and "negative arbitrage" (going long on futures while shorting cash bonds)[11] - Positive arbitrage is considered to have a near risk-free nature, and it is compared with high-grade interbank deposit yields[13] Group 2: Performance and Backtesting - In the first half of 2025, there were periods of high positive arbitrage yields, particularly for the TS2506 and TF2506 contracts, with IRR values of 2.20% and 2.05% respectively[18][25] - Backtesting results show that constructing a positive arbitrage strategy for TS2506 yielded higher returns than holding cash bonds until delivery, while TF2506 underperformed compared to directly holding 5-year cash bonds[26] - The IRR for the T2312 contract was 3.93% on October 31, 2023, significantly higher than the 1-month deposit yield of 2.50%[17] Group 3: Market Outlook and Recommendations - The market is expected to remain volatile, with a focus on the TL2603 contract for shorting basis opportunities as it approaches delivery[4] - The IRS strategy shows limited upside potential, while interbank deposits are considered to have better value[5] - Current IRR levels for various contracts are fluctuating, with T2603's IRR ranging from 1.13% to 1.76%, indicating no significant advantage over 3-month interbank deposit rates[73]