今日上期所氧化铝期货冲高回落，主力2605合约日间交易收跌1.58%，国内氧化铝现货价格持稳。 宏观方面，市场风险偏好降温，空头势力卷土重来，全球股市大面积下跌。人民币走弱与油价下行形成 共振，对氧化铝期货价格形成压制，致其震荡走弱。 长江有色网1月8日讯，今日氧化铝高位下挫，主力月2605合约早盘冲高受阻，午后震荡下行；截止当日 15：00收盘，氧化铝主力月2605合约报2863元，收跌46元，跌幅1.58%；32个合约累计成交1540172 手，比前一交易日减少602829手，跌幅28.13%；持仓量798,398手增加62,111手，涨幅8.44%。 今日国内氧化铝现货价格持稳；据长江有色网ccmn数据，1月8日氧化铝华南地区每吨报2730-2780元之 间，与前一交易日报价持平；华东地区氧化铝每吨报2640-2680元之间，与前一交易日报价持平；西南 地区氧化铝每吨2765-2805元之间，与前一交易日报价持平；西北地区氧化铝每吨报2915-2955元之间， 与前一交易日报价持平。 基本面方面，供应端出现小幅减产，氧化铝供应阶段性缩减。不过，因市场提前对 1 月氧化铝减产形成 预期，期货价格率先反弹， ...

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2026/01/06 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2026/01/06 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 100600 12934 7.63 三月 101470 12892 7.82 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 7.93 -1538.75 现货出口 - 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2026/01/06 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 23980 3136 7.65 三月 23865 3173 5.49 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.35 -2191.68 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2026/01/06 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 23310 3033 7.68 三月 23700 3061 7.71 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.32 -1940.69 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2026/01/06 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 136050 16668 8.16 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.02 729.44 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2026/01/06 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因 ...

国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 17150 1971 8.69 三月 17360 2015 11.54 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.60 177.81 有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2026/01/05 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2026/01/05 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 98790 12526 7.86 三月 98380 12496 7.97 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 7.94 -1808.32 现货出口 -455.42 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2026/01/05 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 23310 3081 7.56 三月 23310 3117 5.52 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.36 -2455.24 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2026/01/05 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22460 2966 7.57 三月 22950 2993 7.59 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.33 -2249.88 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2026/01/05 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 135050 16455 8.21 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.03 1259.30 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2026/ ...

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/12/31 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/31 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 97700 12516 7.86 三月 98240 12477 7.84 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 7.95 -1171.20 现货出口 - 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/31 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 23290 3091 7.54 三月 23420 3123 5.60 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.37 -2576.06 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/31 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22180 2941 7.54 三月 22620 2974 7.54 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.33 -2321.75 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/31 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 131750 16358 8.05 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.04 1259.30 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信 ...

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/12/30 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/30 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 100950 12584 7.80 三月 98940 12553 8.09 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 7.96 -1855.70 现货出口 -1578.57 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/30 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 23380 3086 7.58 三月 23285 3116 5.65 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.38 -2484.97 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/30 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22490 2934 7.66 三月 22625 2972 7.66 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.34 -1994.64 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/30 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 130850 15520 8.43 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.05 1196.97 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 17475 1967 8.83 三月 17465 2011 11.63 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.62 421.73 跨品种套利跟踪 2025 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different commodities and financial products having their own characteristics. Some are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals, some by geopolitical factors, and others by macro - economic policies and seasonal factors. The market rhythm switches quickly, and most products are in a state of oscillation, with different potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][14] - Different industries have different outlooks. For example, some industries like polycrystalline silicon and manganese silicon are expected to have a relatively positive trend, while others such as urea and PVC may face certain challenges in supply - demand balance and price trends [13][18][28] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals and Base Metals - **Precious Metals**: International gold prices continued a moderate upward trend after the breakthrough, while silver, platinum, and palladium accelerated their rise, with a gain of over 10%. The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks support the strength of precious metals. The spot shortage expectation makes silver, platinum, and palladium more favored by funds, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped significantly below the average. However, exchange restrictions are frequent, and market volatility is extremely high [2] - **Copper**: Copper prices continued to rise strongly last Friday. The Shanghai copper weighted reached a maximum of 102,700 yuan, and it is expected that the London copper will open at $12,700 - $12,800. The market has quickly reached the bullish targets of most overseas institutions for 2026. The target price of the copper market is raised, with the London copper at about $13,100 and the Shanghai copper at about 104,000 yuan [3] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market's fundamentals are neutral, with poor apparent demand and spot feedback. Shanghai aluminum mainly followed the upward trend, with relatively mild fluctuations. Long - positions should be held with the 40 - day moving average as the support [4] - **Zinc**: In late December, domestic smelter overhauls increased, supporting the adjustment of Shanghai zinc above the annual line. In January, the pressure on the zinc ingot supply side is small, and with the late Spring Festival in 2026 and the expected good start, the consumption side is not pessimistic. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [7] Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply is mainly affected by geopolitical factors, with the shipping rhythm in the Middle East and Russia slowing down. The demand side may be boosted by improved refinery profits and the US blockade of Venezuelan oil exports. Singapore's inventory continues to accumulate, and the high - inventory pressure is still significant. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is dominated by overseas refinery starts. The demand side of ship fuel consumption is continuously weak due to high - sulfur substitution [21] - **Asphalt**: Since December, the weekly shipment volume has remained below 400,000 tons, at a low level in the same period of the past four years. Last week, both social and factory inventories increased. The supply - demand of BU is marginally relaxed, but positive news has a significant boost. However, it will eventually return to the price - pressured pattern dominated by supply - demand relaxation [22] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: CBOT soybeans oscillated downward after reopening last Friday, and Dalian soybean meal rose first and then fell. In the future, attention should be paid to the specific export situation of US soybeans and whether the La Nina weather in South America can have a continuous impact [35] - **Cotton**: US cotton rebounded from a low level last week, and the weekly signing data improved, with increased Chinese purchases. Domestic Zhengzhou cotton rose continuously, and the market is bullish. Although this year's new cotton production has increased significantly, the commercial inventory is basically the same as the previous year, and the sales progress is relatively fast [42] Others - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day, the broader market oscillated with heavy volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index recorded an 8 - day consecutive gain. All major futures index contracts closed higher, with IC leading the gain. Industrial profits of large - scale enterprises from January to November showed a growth trend, and the RMB exchange rate broke "7" last week [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: On December 26, 2025, the 30 - year treasury bond futures had the largest increase of 0.36%. In December, the central bank's net MLF injection was 10 billion yuan, a consecutive tenth - month incremental renewal. Against the background of increased counter - cyclical adjustment policies, long - term interest rates have risen significantly recently [48]

铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/29 有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/12/29 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/29 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 97800 - - 三月 98860 12133 8.11 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 - - 现货出口 - 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/29 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 23200 - - 三月 23215 3087 5.62 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 - - 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/29 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22020 - - 三月 22470 2957 7.54 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 - - 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/29 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 128750 - - 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 - 45.32 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 17225 - - 三月 17535 2000 11.58 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 - - 跨期套利跟踪 2025/12/29 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 2730 2870 2930 2910 理论价差 ...

铂钯周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 杨蕤（联系人）从业资格号：F03151404 日期：2025年12月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 本周广铂及广钯周度表现仍然亮眼，周线均收阳，但能观测到广期所铂 钯价格开始分化，广铂周涨幅均在25%以上，而广钯周内冲高后回落， 周涨幅只有3.4%。外盘铂钯在圣诞节前夕小幅撤步后迎来了更大的向上 弹性，铂金刷新年内新高，钯金逼近前高，离2000美元/盎司关键关口 仅一步之遥。 在本周，铂钯的跨市场和期现套利窗口持续扩大，广期所不断出台政策 以防范行情过热风险。高频数据方面，观测到NYMEX库存开始新一轮的 流入，铂金ETF持仓流入速度边际抬升，而钯金流入速度有所放缓。ETF 持仓的不同表现对应铂钯价格开始分化的局面，且内盘分化程度更加明 显，比价来到1.37，而外盘比价在周五夜间获得修复，收于1.28。其余 高频数据并没有显示铂钯面临的现货结 ...

铸造铝合金产业链周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号： F03142619 日期：2025年12月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铸造铝合金：需求边际走弱，价格高位震荡 强弱分析：中性 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 第 2 页 资料来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Bloomberg、乘联会、国泰君安期货研究所 精废价差短期震荡 ◆ 本周铝价震荡偏强，带动铸造铝合金价格一路走高，一度触及21600高点。供应 方面，年末废铝回收进入淡季，市场流通货源偏紧，持货商挺价惜售增加。临 近春节备库，部分企业面临补库困难，厂内原料库存偏低。需求方面，临近年 底下游需求小幅走弱，前期赶单已接近尾声，价格高位下游接单较为谨慎，而 成本压力以及环保限产等影响再生铝企业开工。整体来看，废铝供应偏紧不改， ...

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/12/26 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/26 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 94825 - - 三月 96370 12133 7.86 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 - - 现货出口 - 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/26 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 23090 - - 三月 23095 3087 5.59 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 - - 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/26 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 21980 - - 三月 22325 2957 7.51 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 - - 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/26 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 126100 - - 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 - 45.32 跨期套利跟踪 2025/12/26 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 350 510 580 640 理论价差 581 1061 1549 2037 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -125 -95 -50 -20 理论价差 219 344 469 5 ...