铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/24 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 17025 1973 8.66 三月 17170 1995 11.22 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.72 -123.44 有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/11/24 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/24 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 85800 10677 8.07 三月 85680 10676 8.03 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.07 -632.80 现货出口 75.49 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/24 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22420 3122 7.18 三月 22400 2987 5.75 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.49 -4097.68 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2 ...

理性与诗意交织 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 杭州的期货人，骨子里透着一种"往外闯"的韧劲。他们生长在"七山一水二分田"的独特土地上，习惯 了彼此抱团取暖，也擅长独自前行探索未知的道路。你可以在武林门热闹的咖啡馆里，听到三个朝气蓬勃 的年轻人低声讨论铜库存的问题，也能在滨江充满创新氛围的共享办公室里，看到几位私募操盘手围坐在 一起，桌上摆放着密密麻麻的交易记录和一壶香气四溢的普洱。 宝城期货 陈栋 杭州的期货人，既不似北方那般豪放地畅饮烈酒、大口吃肉，也不像南方一些城市那样追求速战速决 的风格。他们更像是一杯温润醇厚的老茶，表面看似平静无波，内里却翻涌着对趋势的执念、对风险的敬 畏，以及对生活的感知。 清晨五点半，当整个城市还在沉睡之中，西溪湿地旁的一户人家，老胡已经早早起身。他是期货公司 的"老将"，一直致力于期现套利，对每一种基差的语言都了如指掌。锅里煮着的是昨晚精心备好的荠菜鲜 肉饺子，袅袅的水汽氤氲升腾。他顺手打开手机，查看 CBOT 大豆走势。妻子常常打趣说他"连做梦都在 算升贴水"，他只是笑而不语。他心里清楚，这一碗饺子下肚，不仅是家的温度，更是支撑他从容面对今 日盘面波动的心理资本。 七点一刻，老王的直播 ...

Core Viewpoint - The interview highlights the trading strategies employed by a company in the polycrystalline silicon market, focusing on their successful use of various arbitrage and options strategies to enhance profitability. Group 1: Trading Strategies - The company utilizes three main trading strategies: spot-futures arbitrage, inter-month arbitrage, and options spread arbitrage [2]. - Initially, the company focused on spot-futures arbitrage, entering the market when reasonable price differences appeared, and increasing operations as price differences widened [2]. - In July, due to the "anti-involution" policy, the company shifted its strategy towards inter-month arbitrage, employing grid strategies to capture trading opportunities, resulting in a significant increase in trading volume [2]. Group 2: Options Strategies - The company employs a variety of options strategies, with a preference for vertical spreads and ratio spreads [2]. - The primary strategy involves a "bull spread," where the company buys near-month contracts and sells far-month contracts, allowing for profit locking even if price differences continue to widen [2]. - The company actively manages positions based on market conditions, using techniques such as pyramid averaging to gradually increase positions when price differences narrow [2]. Group 3: Unique Aspects of Options Trading - The company favors the options products offered by the exchange due to their sufficient strike price depth and wide coverage, which facilitates the implementation of the "wheel strategy" [3]. - The "wheel strategy" begins with selling put options, optimizing costs and generating income based on the demand in the spot market [3]. - The company emphasizes the role of options sellers, who focus on time value in addition to directional profits, and employs strategies to maximize returns or provide protection based on market volatility [4].

Core Insights - The company employs a diversified trading strategy focusing on three main types: spot-futures arbitrage, inter-month futures arbitrage, and options spread arbitrage [2][3][4] Group 1: Trading Strategies - The initial trading strategy involved spot-futures arbitrage, which allowed the company to earn stable profits from price differences when market conditions were favorable [2] - Following the implementation of anti-involution policies, the company shifted its focus towards inter-month arbitrage due to increased volatility in the price differences of polysilicon futures [2][3] - The company actively engages in rolling operations to capture market fluctuations, enhancing trading volume significantly [2][3] Group 2: Options Strategy - The company favors options trading due to the sufficient depth of strike prices available, which supports the implementation of a "wheel strategy" [4][5] - The wheel strategy involves selling put options to optimize costs and generate revenue, allowing the company to acquire futures at a lower effective price [4] - The company emphasizes the importance of time value in options trading, focusing on selling options to capture this value while also employing various strategies to maximize profits or provide protection for existing positions [5]

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/11/21 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/21 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 86425 10740 8.02 三月 86100 10759 8.03 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.08 -503.28 现货出口 21.23 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/21 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22420 3125 7.17 三月 22405 2990 5.77 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.51 -4165.28 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/21 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 21570 2781 7.75 三月 21555 2812 7.68 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.35 -1645.40 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/21 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 119950 14384 8.34 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.18 -1472.02 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/21 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 17100 1986 8.62 三月 17235 2015 11.12 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.73 -21 ...

对于一些老牌的钢贸商来说，之前依靠信息差、价格差玩转市 场的打法，已经玩不转了。当持续的期现背离，导致市场上普 遍的现货购销价差无法覆盖贸易商的综合运营成本时，整个行 业便开始进入盈亏平衡点以下的集体亏损区间。 作者：王雅洁 封图：图虫创意 从业二十年的钢铁贸易的李静，最近两周在为螺纹钢库存调整发愁。 这些调整动作，因钢价异动而起。 2025年11月的钢铁市场，正在上演一场鲜见的期现分化大戏。 11月18日，上海期货交易所螺纹钢期货主力合约2601收于3079元/吨，当日跌幅达0.19%；然 而，生意社平台显示，螺纹钢现货价格坚守在3164.34元/吨，期现价差（期现价差=现货价格-期 货价格）达到85.34元/吨的异常水平。 2025年8月以来，螺纹钢期现背离持续扩大。自8月初起，螺纹钢期货价格便开启下行通道，而现 货价格相对"抗跌"，两者价差从不足20元/吨逐步走阔，至11月中旬已多次突破70元/吨，如今更 是扩大到80元/吨之上的水平。 现货市场在"反内卷"政策与限产措施支撑下，因供给端收缩预期而异常坚挺；期货市场则沉浸在 需求不足的悲观预期中难以自拔。 作为江苏无锡一家中型钢贸企业的业务经理，李静坦言 ...

对于一些老牌的钢贸商来说，之前依靠信息差、价格差玩转市 场的打法，已经玩不转了。当持续的期现背离，导致市场上普 遍的现货购销价差无法覆盖贸易商的综合运营成本时，整个行 业便开始进入盈亏平衡点以下的集体亏损区间。 作者：王雅洁 封图：图虫创意 从业二十年的钢铁贸易的李静，最近两周在为螺纹钢库存调整发愁。 这些调整动作，因钢价异动而起。 2025年11月的钢铁市场，正在上演一场鲜见的期现分化大戏。 11月18日，上海期货交易所螺纹钢期货主力合约2601收于3079元/吨，当日跌幅达0.19%；然 而，生意社平台显示，螺纹钢现货价格坚守在3164.34元/吨，期现价差（期现价差=现货价格-期 货价格）达到85.34元/吨的异常水平。 2025年8月以来，螺纹钢期现背离持续扩大。自8月初起，螺纹钢期货价格便开启下行通道，而现 货价格相对"抗跌"，两者价差从不足20元/吨逐步走阔，至11月中旬已多次突破70元/吨，如今更 是扩大到80元/吨之上的水平。 现货市场在"反内卷"政策与限产措施支撑下，因供给端收缩预期而异常坚挺；期货市场则沉浸在 需求不足的悲观预期中难以自拔。 作为江苏无锡一家中型钢贸企业的业务经理，李静坦言 ...

Core Viewpoint - The steel trading industry is experiencing significant challenges due to a divergence between futures and spot prices, leading to a shift in operational strategies among traders [3][4][9]. Market Dynamics - As of November 18, 2025, the main rebar futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 3079 CNY/ton, a decline of 0.19%, while the spot price remained at 3164.34 CNY/ton, resulting in an unusual price difference of 85.34 CNY/ton [3]. - Since August 2025, the divergence between futures and spot prices has widened, with the price gap exceeding 80 CNY/ton by mid-November [3][7]. - The current market conditions are characterized by a supply contraction due to government policies, while demand remains weak, leading to a persistent bearish outlook in the futures market [6][8]. Inventory Management - Many steel traders are adopting a "low inventory operation" model to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations, with some reducing their rebar inventory from 20,000 tons to less than 8,000 tons [4][10]. - The focus on maintaining minimal inventory levels reflects heightened sensitivity to financial security among traders [10][21]. Strategic Shifts - Traditional trading strategies based on information asymmetry are becoming obsolete, prompting traders to seek new opportunities, such as extending supply chain services or enhancing financial operations [9][12]. - Large trading firms are increasingly engaging in arbitrage transactions to capitalize on the price differences between futures and spot markets, with some securing profits of 80 to 100 CNY per ton [11][12]. Financial Pressures - The steel trading sector is facing significant financial strain, with average profit margins reported at only 1.97% for the first half of 2025, leading to increased scrutiny from banks regarding credit risk [15][16]. - Traders are experiencing longer sales cycles and delayed payments from clients, with accounts receivable turnover days reaching a historical high of 83 days [19][20]. Survival Strategies - In response to the challenging environment, traders are implementing strategies such as reducing inventory levels, utilizing futures for risk hedging, and exploring supply chain financing options [21][22]. - Some traders are shifting their focus to reliable clients with good credit histories, even if it means accepting lower profit margins [22][23].

跨期套利跟踪 2025/11/20 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 460 460 460 410 理论价差 530 959 1396 1833 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 15 35 45 85 理论价差 215 336 457 578 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 150 160 170 195 理论价差 218 337 456 575 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 40 60 40 50 理论价差 211 318 425 532 镍 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货 月 五月-现货月 价差 990 1140 1420 1690 锡 5-1 价差 -360 理论价差 6070 期现套利跟踪 2025/11/20 铜 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -430 30 理论价差 - - 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 20 35 理论价差 - - 有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/11/20 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/20 国内价格 ...

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/11/19 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/19 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 86000 10647 8.12 三月 85660 10682 8.04 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 - - 现货出口 - 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/19 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22290 3100 7.19 三月 22345 2971 5.82 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 - - 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/19 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 21460 2752 7.80 三月 21480 2788 7.71 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 - - 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/19 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 118800 14335 8.29 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 - -2326.46 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/19 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不 ...