Core Viewpoint - The era of low-cost shipping, exemplified by the 9.9 yuan free shipping model, is coming to an end due to the unsustainable pricing strategies in the express delivery industry, which have led to declining profits and service quality [1][3][7]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The express delivery industry is facing a "prisoner's dilemma," where companies are reluctant to raise prices for fear of losing customers, resulting in a collective decision to maintain low prices, even at a loss [7][9]. - From 2019 to 2024, the express delivery market size is projected to exceed 1.4 trillion yuan, yet the average price per delivery has decreased by 32%, with the average price dropping from 8.1 yuan to 7.5 yuan in the first half of 2024 [7][9]. - The low-price competition has adversely affected delivery personnel, who often earn less than 1 yuan per delivery, leading to compromised service quality as they rush to complete more deliveries [9][11]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The future may see a reduction in pure low-cost shipping options, but there will still be affordable delivery services for non-urgent items, while faster and better-packaged services will be available for urgent or fragile items [5][15]. - Regulatory measures have been introduced to curb price wars among leading express delivery companies, with discussions planned for July 2025 to address these issues [9][11]. - The industry is expected to undergo consolidation, as seen with Jitu's acquisition of Best Express in 2021 and JD's acquisition of Debang in 2022, which may lead to improved service quality as competition decreases [11][13]. Group 3: Consumer Benefits - While consumers may initially perceive price increases as negative, reasonable price adjustments can lead to enhanced service quality, similar to the evolution seen in the ride-hailing industry [11][13]. - The shift towards a service-oriented model will allow consumers to choose between basic and premium delivery options based on their needs, improving overall shopping experiences [15].

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