SK 海力士正在龙仁半导体集群建设一期晶圆厂，原计划于明年 5 月竣工。目前一期厂房外部结构施 工已过半，规划中的 6 座洁净室已有 3 座同步建设。洁净室是对粉尘、微生物与颗粒物进行严格管 控的专用空间。SK 海力士龙仁一期厂房为三层建筑，规模相当于清州厂区的 6 座 M15X 晶圆厂。 据报道，SK 海力士正计划提前试产，最早可能在明年 2—3 月启动。公司将在龙仁一期率先完工的 洁净室内快速完成设备安装，实现提前投产，主要生产在 AI 时代需求激增的高性能 DRAM（如 DDR5）与高带宽内存 HBM。 三星电子也在平泽建设P4（第四座）晶圆厂，原计划明年第一季度竣工，如今工期有望提前至今年第 四季度，整体缩短约三个月。三星会根据市场行情调整存储与代工设备的配置，P4 厂大概率将生产 目前供不应求的高性能存储芯片。近期有消息称，三星已制定战略，在 P4 厂新建一条10 纳米级第 六代（1c）DRAM 生产线，专门用于 HBM 生产，新线月产能预计可达 10 万 —12 万片晶圆。一位 半导体行业人士表示："韩国存储厂商正疯狂赶工，提前投产时间表。" 公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 随着" ...

桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧2026年2月15日发帖，宣布世界秩序已经崩溃，一天之内吸引了5300万点击量。以下是他的长文原文。 It's Official: The World Order Has Broken Down 在慕尼黑安全会议上，大多数领导人宣布1945年后的世界秩序已经终结，而其背后的图景则在题为《走向毁灭》的《2026年安全报告》中有所 阐述，您可以阅读该报告。 如果您感兴趣的话。更具体地说， 德国总理弗里德里希·默茨表示， "几十年来维持的世界秩序已不复存在"，我们正处于"大国政治"时代。他明 确指出，在这个新时代，自由"不再是理所当然的"。 法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙 也呼应了默茨的观点，并表示与旧世界秩序相关的欧洲旧安全 体系已不复存在，欧洲必须做好战争准备。 美国国务卿马可·卢比奥 表示，我们正处于"新的地缘政治时代"，因为"旧世界"已经不复存在。 依我之见，我们正处于大周期的第六阶段，这一阶段的特点是缺乏规则、强权即公理，以及大国之间的冲突，由此引发了巨大的混乱。第六阶段 的运作机制在我的著作《应对不断 变化的世界秩序的原则》第六章 " 外部秩序与混乱的大周期 " 中有详细阐述 。此前 ...

Core Viewpoint - The world has entered the sixth stage of a "big cycle," characterized by chaos, lack of rules, and power as the primary principle, marking the end of the post-World War II order established in 1945 [1][10][12]. Group 1: Global Order and Geopolitical Dynamics - Major global leaders have reached a rare consensus on the "end of the old order," with significant figures like German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron acknowledging the failure of the previous security architecture [1][2]. - The international relations will now follow the "law of the jungle," where conflicts between major powers will not seek legal resolutions but will escalate through threats or warfare [1][12]. Group 2: Capital Markets and Economic Warfare - The current phase signifies a period of extreme uncertainty for capital markets, with historical evidence suggesting that military parity between opposing powers increases the risk of war [2][5]. - Economic tools will be weaponized, and traditional safe-haven strategies may fail, leading to significant transfers of wealth and power [2][9]. Group 3: Types of Warfare and Power Struggles - There are five primary forms of warfare: trade/economic war, technology war, geopolitical war, capital war, and military war, with the first four often escalating before military conflict occurs [3][13]. - The current global situation reflects a "prisoner's dilemma," where opposing sides are trapped in a cycle of escalation due to mutual distrust [3][21]. Group 4: Historical Context and Lessons - The article draws parallels with the 1930s, where economic turmoil led to the rise of populism and authoritarianism, ultimately culminating in World War II [5][27]. - Historical examples illustrate that economic warfare often precedes military conflict, as seen in the lead-up to World War II, where nations engaged in trade wars and sanctions before open hostilities [39][40]. Group 5: Capital Warfare Strategies - Capital warfare strategies include asset freezes, market access restrictions, and trade embargoes, which can severely impact financial security during conflicts [6][8][40]. - The use of these strategies is expected to increase, posing significant risks to traditional financial assets [8][9]. Group 6: Economic Policies During War - During wartime, governments typically impose strict controls over the economy, including rationing, price controls, and capital controls, often leading to significant debt issuance and currency devaluation [9][46]. - Historical evidence suggests that gold remains a preferred asset for wealth preservation during war, as credit often becomes unreliable [9].

朋友们，我是帮主郑重。昨晚，当情人节玫瑰还没卖完时，中国互联网圈炸开了一颗惊雷——美团发布 盈利预警，2025年净亏损233亿到243亿！ 而就在一年前，这家公司还赚了358亿。一年时间，利润表上近600亿的惊天逆转，相当于每天一睁眼就 亏掉1.6亿。 今天，咱们就穿透这串天文数字，看看一场席卷中国互联网的"外卖三国杀"，如何将曾经 的现金奶牛拖入流血战场。 第一幕：产业的"囚徒困境"——护城河被资本填平 时间回到2024年。美团的核心本地商业分部，还是那头年赚524亿的现金奶牛。但2025年，一切都变 了： • 阿里整合饿了么+淘宝闪购，放话"三年不盈利"，砸下640亿市场费用； • 京东高调入局外卖，打出"骑手五险一金全覆盖"王牌，直击美团336万外包骑手的软肋； • 抖音凭借流量优势，疯狂侵蚀到店业务份额。 美团陷入了经典的囚徒困境：不跟补贴，份额流失；跟补贴，利润崩塌。 它选择了后者，结果就是核 心业务从盈利524亿转为亏损70亿。 第二幕：趋势的"生死拐点"——从价格战到基础设施竞赛 这场战争，早已不是简单的外卖大战，而是即时零售"万物到家"的终极对决。 • 赛道规模：中国即时零售市场2026年将突 ...

达利欧宣告世界进入"大周期"第六阶段：1945年后的世界秩序已瓦解，强权即公理，大国冲突将回归原始权力博弈，贸易战、技术战、资本战将常态化 并可能升级为军事冲突。慕尼黑安全会议共识印证这一判断：旧秩序已不复存在，欧洲安全架构失效。达利欧警告经济工具将被武器化，传统避险逻辑可 能失效，黄金成为最可靠的财富贮藏手段。 全球最大对冲基金桥水创始人达利欧2月14日发布重磅长文， 正式宣告世界已进入"大周期"的第六阶段，即一个没有规则、充满混乱、强权即公理的时 期。 达利欧的核心观点在于，二战后建立的1945年世界秩序已彻底瓦解，大国之间的冲突将不再受国际法约束，而是回归原始的权力博弈。他警告称， 这 一阶段通常伴随着内部动荡与外部战争的交织，直至新的秩序在冲突中确立。 据达利欧引用的最新动态，在2026年2月14日举行的慕尼黑安全会议上，全球主要领导人已就"旧秩序的终结"达成罕见共识。德国总理默茨直言"维持数 十年的世界秩序已不复存在"，并指出自由在这一新时代不再是理所当然的。法国总统马克龙呼应了这一评估，警告欧洲旧有的安全架构已失效，必须 备战。美国国务卿Marco Rubio则明确表示，世界已进入"新地缘政治时代 ...

全球最大对冲基金桥水创始人达利欧2月14日发布重磅长文，正式宣告世界已进入"大周期"的第六阶 段，即一个没有规则、充满混乱、强权即公理的时期。 达利欧的核心观点在于，二战后建立的1945年世界秩序已彻底瓦解，大国之间的冲突将不再受国际法约 束，而是回归原始的权力博弈。他警告称，这一阶段通常伴随着内部动荡与外部战争的交织，直至新的 秩序在冲突中确立。 据达利欧引用的最新动态，在2026年2月14日举行的慕尼黑安全会议上，全球主要领导人已就"旧秩序的 终结"达成罕见共识。德国总理默茨直言"维持数十年的世界秩序已不复存在"，并指出自由在这一新时 代不再是理所当然的。法国总统马克龙呼应了这一评估，警告欧洲旧有的安全架构已失效，必须备战。 美国国务卿Marco Rubio则明确表示，世界已进入"新地缘政治时代"。 达利欧指出，在这一阶段，国际关系将遵循"丛林法则"。与国家内部拥有警察和法官不同，国际体系缺 乏具有强制力的超国家机构来裁决纠纷。当大国发生冲突时，它们不会寻求法律途径，而是通过威胁或 战争来解决。这意味着贸易战、技术战、地缘政治战和资本战将成为常态，并可能最终升级为军事冲 突。 对于资本市场而言，这标志着一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The world has entered the sixth stage of a "big cycle," characterized by chaos, power struggles, and the breakdown of the post-World War II order established in 1945 [1][9] Group 1: Global Order and Geopolitical Dynamics - The post-World War II order has been declared dead, with leaders from major countries acknowledging the end of this era and the need to prepare for conflict [1][2] - International relations will now follow "jungle law," lacking a supernational authority to resolve disputes, leading to conflicts being settled through threats or warfare [1][10] - The current geopolitical landscape is marked by a return to power politics, where traditional norms and laws are disregarded [1][2] Group 2: Types of Conflicts - There are five main forms of conflict between nations: trade/economic wars, technology wars, geopolitical wars, capital wars, and military wars [3][10] - The first four types of conflict often escalate before military confrontations occur, creating a cycle of tension and competition [3][12] - The dynamics of these conflicts are influenced by the "prisoner's dilemma," where opposing parties are uncertain of each other's intentions, leading to an escalation of hostilities [3][12] Group 3: Historical Context and Economic Warfare - The article draws parallels to the 1930s, where economic turmoil led to the rise of populism and authoritarianism, ultimately contributing to World War II [4][24] - Economic warfare, such as tariffs and sanctions, was prevalent before the outbreak of military conflict, exemplified by the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act and oil embargoes [4][24][38] - Historical market performance during wartime shows that stock markets can rise during initial military successes but may ultimately collapse following defeat [4][28] Group 4: Capital Warfare - Capital warfare tools are increasingly being utilized, including asset freezes, market access restrictions, and trade embargoes [5][6][7] - These strategies aim to undermine opponents' economic stability and restrict their access to essential resources [6][7][38] - The use of capital warfare reflects a shift towards weaponizing economic tools in international relations [5][6] Group 5: Wealth Logic During War - During wartime, governments typically impose strict controls, leading to currency devaluation and increased debt issuance to fund military efforts [8][24] - Historical evidence suggests that gold is often the best store of wealth during conflicts, as traditional financial assets may lose value [8][24] - The management of power dynamics and economic policies during periods of conflict is crucial for mitigating the impacts of upheaval [8][24]

（本文作者温天为上海社会科学院市值管理研究中心特约研究员） 抛售潮持续发酵，AI成市场核心担忧 板块对比：半导体走强与软件抛售的核心逻辑 与软件形成鲜明对比的，是半导体板块在AI浪潮中持续走强。芯片需求的爆发，让市场一度产生"去周 期化"的错觉。但从博弈结构看，这更像是一场典型的囚徒困境：每一家云厂商都清楚，单独控制资本 开支才是长期理性选择；但在竞争尚未分出胜负之前，没有任何一方敢率先减速。结果是，个体理性叠 加成集体非理性，短期内推高了芯片需求和盈利预期。 在这样的背景下，当前的软件板块抛售，更像是一轮由叙事冲击触发的短期波动，而非商业模式的集体 失效。AI对软件行业的影响无疑深远，但这种影响更可能是渐进的、结构性的，而不是通过一次财报 季或几款工具的发布就完成重估。 投资启示：市场正经历情绪与结构的重新校准 对于长期投资者而言，真正重要的问题并不是"AI会不会颠覆软件"，而是：在资本竞赛尚未结束、叙事 仍然主导定价的阶段，该如何管理自己的行为节奏。在流动性市场中，信息往往并不稀缺，稀缺的是耐 心。当资本纪律重新回到定价核心，真正的分化才会开始。市场正在经历的，或许并不是一个时代的终 结，而是一次情绪与结 ...

Macroeconomic Overview - Japan's economy continues to struggle with "stagflation" and a "prisoner's dilemma," facing rising prices for energy and essential goods, leading to intensified inflation and occasional "technical recessions" [1] - The Bank of Japan's monetary policy space is severely constrained, with the depreciation of the yen losing its effectiveness in boosting exports due to global supply chain restructuring [1] - Large multinational corporations may benefit from currency fluctuations, but small and medium-sized enterprises face increased costs for imported materials and energy due to a weak yen [1] Industrial Challenges - Japan's industrial sector is experiencing confusion in "innovation breakthroughs," with a decline in its ability to leverage external technology and internal innovation [2] - The crisis in "Made in Japan" is not about the inability to produce quality goods but rather the failure to create intelligent products, particularly in the digital economy and AI sectors [2] Human Capital Issues - The once-celebrated "craftsmanship spirit" and employment practices in Japan are now hindering industrial transformation, exacerbated by labor shortages and mismatched talent structures [3] - Traditional management practices and promotion systems are outdated, leading to a lack of skilled talent necessary for digital transformation [3] Government Policy Responses - The government, under Prime Minister Kishida, is attempting to intervene with "Kishida Economics," focusing on crisis management investments in strategic industries like semiconductors and quantum computing [4] - This approach risks resource misallocation, as Japan lacks the necessary innovation environment for AI algorithms and software ecosystems, potentially leading to further distance from promising startups [4] Macro Policy Side Effects - The government's preference for a "weak yen + ultra-loose" policy is contradictory, as it raises costs for high-end manufacturing and energy-intensive industries [4] - The push for economic security and political conservatism is increasing the risk of technological "isolation," making it difficult to attract top talent and advanced technologies from abroad [4]

前述研究证实，这绝非危言耸听。有研究证据表示，重度AI用户会出现明显的神经连接减弱、记忆能力下降，以及独立分析思考能力萎缩——研究者称 之为 "认知负债"。 全文阅读时长约10分钟 唯有以自律之道驾驭AI，使其助力认知思考能力持续复利增长的专业人才，方能成为长远的赢家。今天，IMD领导力与组织变革教授Michael Watkins为 您剖析，如何将AI锻造为认知能力，而非让它成为思想拐杖。 大型语言模型的迅速普及，在职场中布下了一个经典的"囚徒困境"。在这场商业生活的生存竞赛中，知识工作者与创意人员面临两难抉择：工作中广泛借 助AI工具，以认知能力下降为代价，换取短期竞争优势；还是投入更多心力，以战略性方式运用AI，在保证自身认知能力的同时，承受暂时落后的可 能？ 如同所有囚徒困境，短期的理性选择似乎不言自明。当同事或竞争对手借助ChatGPT，二十分钟即可生成一份详尽的市场分析，而你独立钻研却需三小 时，扑面而来的压力令人窒息。此类情境若复制于战略规划、客户沟通等每日数以千计的决策中，加之冗长的待办清单，竞争的铁律便昭然若揭：要么全 面拥抱AI，要么黯然掉队。 然而，这种个体层面的理性抉择，却会导向集体非理 ...