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香港离岸人民币市场观察(2026年2月刊):地缘扰动下人民币资产表现出较优稳健性
工银亚洲· 2026-03-22 10:50
Group 1: Currency and Market Trends - As of the end of January 2026, Hong Kong's RMB deposits reached 993.88 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.7% and a month-on-month increase of 3.5%[5] - The average USD index for February was 97.44, down 0.79% from January, while it rose 0.54% by the end of February[8] - The USDCNY and USDCNH rates at the end of February were 6.8559 and 6.8612, respectively, reflecting increases of 1.33% and 1.40% compared to the end of January[10] Group 2: Interest Rates and Monetary Policy - The average CNH HIBOR for February was 1.37%, 1.65%, and 1.72% for overnight, 1-month, and 3-month rates, respectively, showing declines of 25.7 BP, 16.1 BP, and 10.2 BP from January[18] - The SHIBOR rates for February averaged 1.33%, 1.55%, and 1.58%, with slight decreases of 0.8 BP, 1.0 BP, and 1.7 BP from January[20] - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward sales from 20% to 0% starting March 2, 2026, supporting the RMB's strength[10] Group 3: Bond Market Activity - In February, the issuance of offshore RMB bonds totaled 943.6 billion CNY, an increase of 48.1% month-on-month and 21.4% year-on-year, despite a decrease in the number of bonds issued[32] - The total custody scale of foreign institutions in the interbank bond market was 3.35 trillion CNY, a decrease of 3.11% from the previous month[36] - The "Northbound Bond Connect" trading volume in January was 9.425 trillion CNY, reflecting a significant increase of 47.4% month-on-month[36]