2025年9月，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至4.00?.25%，这是自2024年12月以来的首次降息。 这 一货币政策转向成为触发国际资本重新配置的关键变量。 港股的估值优势更为突出，恒生指数市盈率10.48倍，恒生科技指数市盈率约24倍，不仅远低于美股同类指数，还处于 自身历史低位区间。 对于追求安全边际的国际资本而言，中国资产既具备估值修复空间，又有经济基本面和政策托底支撑，成为平衡收益 与风险的最优选择之一。 东方财富证券研报指出，低利率环境下，具备景气支撑的成长板块和利率敏感型行业将持续受益于估值扩张。 国家外汇局数据显示，目前境外投资者持有境内债券、股票的市值占比仅3%至4%，仍有巨大提升空间。 全球资本增 配人民币资产的趋势已逐步显现，中国正成为美元流动性外溢的价值洼地。 与全球主要市场相比，中国资产的估值优势成为吸引资金的核心卖点。 截至2025年9月，沪深300指数市盈率仅12.93倍，处于历史46%的分位，而标普500指数市盈率达22.5倍，纳斯达克指数 更是突破40倍。 美元走弱缓解了人民币汇率的贬值压力，结合国内逆周期调节政策的支撑，人民币资产的汇兑风险显著降低。 同 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent policies of the Trump administration, including tariff wars, interest rate cuts, and the "Gold Card" plan, are primarily aimed at alleviating U.S. fiscal pressure, despite appearing disorganized on the surface [1][6][19]. Group 1: Fiscal Pressure and Policy Responses - The U.S. government's interest expenditure has increased significantly, from $432.6 billion in FY 2016 to nearly $1.13 trillion by FY 2025, indicating a rise of approximately $700 billion [1][8]. - The Trump administration has attempted to address this fiscal gap through various measures, including tariffs, which are expected to generate around $200 billion in additional revenue, and other cost-saving initiatives [9][19]. - Despite these efforts, there remains a funding gap of about $400 billion that needs to be addressed [9][19]. Group 2: Impact of Interest Rate Cuts - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are projected to save the government between $41.2 billion and $193.1 billion in interest expenditures, depending on the extent of the cuts [16][17]. - Even with aggressive rate cuts, the savings are insufficient to cover the existing fiscal shortfall, prompting the Trump administration to seek additional revenue sources [19][21]. Group 3: Currency and Asset Implications - The push for lower interest rates and the potential weakening of the U.S. dollar may lead to capital flowing out of the U.S., benefiting non-U.S. assets such as precious metals and cryptocurrencies [3][21]. - The anticipated appreciation of the Chinese yuan, driven by narrowing interest rate differentials, could attract foreign investment into Chinese markets, following a three-step process starting with Hong Kong stocks [3][23]. Group 4: Long-term Market Outlook - The current macroeconomic environment suggests that A-shares in China are likely to maintain a long-term upward trend, supported by China's competitive advantages and favorable capital market policies [25][26]. - The ongoing geopolitical dynamics and the strategic shift in China's approach to international relations may enhance investor confidence and risk appetite, further supporting the Chinese capital market [26][27].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a significant drop from 3899 points to 3820 points, breaking through key psychological support levels of the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, causing concern among investors [1] - Despite a net outflow of 110 billion in main funds, the market saw an influx of 600 billion in new capital, indicating a contrasting narrative in market dynamics [1] - The trading volume reached an astonishing 3 trillion, which often correlates with market corrections, suggesting a potential manipulation of market temperature by major funds to prevent congestion from short-term capital inflows [3] Group 2 - The financial sector, particularly securities and banking stocks, showed clear signs of control, as they declined in unison, hinting at a deliberate strategy to manage market conditions [3] - Historical patterns indicate that after the last four Federal Reserve rate cuts, the market typically undergoes a significant washout, suggesting that the current downturn may be a planned reshuffling rather than a trend reversal [3] - The outlook for RMB assets remains positive, bolstered by the anticipated influx of liquidity from the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, which is expected to benefit both Hong Kong and A-share markets [3]

中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 策略 Strategy 美降息如何影响中国资产？ >>点击图片查看全文<< 我们梳理了美联储降息影响中国资产的逻辑，主要分为三个方面：1）美联储降息一定程度或有助于缓解我国货币政策外部掣肘。2）美 国降息可能带来弱势美元。3）美联储降息往往伴随全球资金再配置。中金策略团队在近期发布的《 牛市成因之辩——国际货币体系变 迁视角 》认为，美元贬值和创新叙事反转相结合，两者反映的全球货币秩序重构可能是本轮市场行情的核心驱动力，新货币秩序下人 民币资产相对受益；如果政策应对得当，人民币资产有望受益于全球货币体系加速碎片化、多元化的双重红利——碎片化加速中国在海 外的资金回流，多元化驱动全球资金再平衡，或有部分资金流向中国资本市场。美联储重启降息或将促进全球资金流动性释放、对美元 汇率形成一定下行压力，从而有望进一步推动全球资金再配置。 2025.9.14 | 李求索 张歆瑜等 02 宏观 Macroeconomy 股市配置的空间 >>点击图片查看全文<< 我们之前的研究指出，金融周期调整导致资产配置大幅变化，ROE改善之前股市会经历一个再配置带来的 ...

据央视新闻消息，当地时间9月17日，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦 基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间。 图片来源：IC photo 来源：北京日报客户端 记者：潘福达 东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监白雪认为，对全球金融市场而言，美联储重启降息周期将推动全球流动 性条件边际改善，但影响力度受制于降息节奏与其他主要央行政策的相对变化。 对人民币资产而言，中美利差收窄将缓解贬值压力，但国内经济基本面仍将是决定外资流向的关键因 素。伴随美联储降息以及美国经济降温，美元指数还将承受一定下行压力，这将为人民币带来被动升值 动能。国内基本面方面，四季度外部波动对我国出口的影响会逐步显现，而逆周期调节政策适时加力将 确保经济运行基本稳定，为人民币汇率提供重要的内在支撑。 这是美联储2025年第一次降息，也是继2024年三次降息后再次降息。消息一出，投资者开始评估美联储 利率决定和预测，美股闻风而动。与此同时，美联储能否维持其独立性再次引发外界担忧。美联储预测 显示，到年底将再降息50个基点，未来两年每年再降息25个基点。 关于美联储年内首次降息，汇丰环球投资研究美国经济学家R ...

据证券日报消息，美联储重启降息为中国货币政策带来更大操作空间。专家认为，美联储降息减少了我 国货币政策面临的外部压力，可能推动新一轮降准和降息。中信证券表示，中国央行将继续通过"降准 +降息+公开市场操作"支持经济复苏。汇管信息科技研究院称，尽管美联储降息带来更大操作空间，中 国货币政策仍将根据自身经济状况决定是否降息。与此同时，美元走弱可能促使人民币升值，但人民币 汇率预计仍将以稳为主。全球投资者可能加大对人民币资产的投资，进一步支持中国市场。 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Impact - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%, with indications of potentially two more cuts this year [1] - Following the announcement, U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up by 0.57% while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 0.10% and 0.33% respectively [1] - The A-share market initially rose but later fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.15% [1] Group 2: Currency and Market Reactions - The Chinese yuan showed minor fluctuations, with the onshore yuan against the U.S. dollar reported at 7.1085, down by 72 basis points from the previous day [1] - Analysts suggest that the Fed's rate cut and improved cross-border capital flows may attract more global funds to yuan-denominated assets [1][3] - The offshore yuan strengthened, breaking the 7.10 mark, reflecting international investor expectations [3] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - COMEX gold futures reached a record high of $3744 per ounce before retreating to $3692, indicating market volatility following the rate cut [2][9] - Analysts believe that the rate cut may initially lead to profit-taking in gold, but could also set the stage for a new upward trend in gold prices [2] - The gold market is experiencing a significant bull run, with prices up over 33% year-to-date, and forecasts from major banks suggest potential prices could reach $4000 to $5000 per ounce [9] Group 4: Stock Market Outlook - A-share indices are expected to continue rising, with structural opportunities in sectors like solar energy, batteries, and artificial intelligence [5][6] - Analysts note that the recent adjustments in the stock market are normal and do not indicate an end to the upward trend [5] - The overall sentiment remains optimistic for the Chinese stock market, supported by favorable economic conditions and policy measures [6]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.41%, with the Hang Seng Tech Index surging by 3.49% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 1.78% on September 17, with a half-day trading volume of HKD 192.36 billion [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech ETF (159101) gained 2.71%, with notable increases in component stocks such as SMIC (+5.70%), SenseTime-W (+5.26%), Meituan-W (+5.18%), Alibaba-W (+5.02%), and Tencent Holdings (+2.09%) [1] - The market anticipates a greater than 90% probability of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts in September, with probabilities exceeding 70% for cuts in October and December [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are expected to facilitate global capital reallocation, potentially benefiting Chinese assets amid a backdrop of global monetary system restructuring, with a combination of US dollar depreciation and a reversal of innovative narratives [2] - If policies are effectively managed, Chinese assets may benefit from the dual dividends of accelerated capital repatriation and global capital rebalancing, with some funds possibly flowing into the Chinese capital market [2] - In the context of renminbi appreciation and strengthened expectations for Fed rate cuts, there is optimism for a "catch-up" rally in Hong Kong stocks, shifting focus from "takeout narratives" to "AI narratives," particularly in the tech and internet sectors [2] Group 3 - Relevant ETFs include the Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech ETF (159101) for the tech sector and the Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330) for internet leaders [3]

中金公司策略团队在近期发布的《牛市成因之辩——国际货币体系变迁视角》中表示，美元贬值和创新 叙事反转相结合，两者反映的全球货币秩序重构可能是本轮中国权益资产行情的核心驱动力。如果政策 应对得当，人民币资产有望受益于全球货币体系加速碎片化、多元化的双重红利——碎片化加速中国在 海外的资金回流，多元化驱动全球资金再平衡，或有部分资金流向中国资本市场。总体看，美联储重启 降息或将促进全球资金流动性释放、对美元汇率形成一定下行压力，从而有望进一步推动全球资金再配 置。 首先，美联储降息一定程度或有助于缓解我国货币政策外部掣肘。我国将继续执行"适度宽松的货币政 策"。 其次，美联储降息可能带来弱势美元。人民币相对升值可能对出口及出海类企业产生一定影响，但相应 有美元借款企业的偿还压力也降低，财务层面需要考虑汇兑损益对不同企业影响。 最后，美联储降息往往伴随全球资金再配置。尤其是在当前全球货币体系重构背景下，美国降息促进全 球资金流动性释放，中国资产可能相对受益。 近期，市场对美联储重启降息的预期再度升温。截至9月13日，根据CME FedWatch，市场对美联储9月 重启降息的预期概率超过90%，且10月、12月降息的 ...

美元资产的命运，正悬在刀尖！而中国，正悄悄走上一条"变盘"之路。 1.美联储"脱轨"，全球市场神经紧绷 9月刚开头，华尔街就弥漫着一股难掩的焦灼气息。美联储议息会议将至，降息预期飙升，资本市场风 声鹤唳！ 美国联邦债务总额超7万亿美金，年度利息支出高达数千亿美元。利率每降低一个点，财政部能省出一 大块"肥肉"。这笔钱，从哪来？无非是让全球投资者买单。 无奈的选择？还是故技重施？美联储降息传闻愈演愈烈，市场投机加剧，国际利率期货显示"降息板上 钉钉"。 美元信用的这根"定海神针"，开始动摇！ 来源：保险前线观察员 2.美联储"独立性"失效，两类资产危险 自此特朗普上任以来，我们看到他屡屡发难，向美联储开炮，一点没给鲍威尔面子。 而这场"政治与金融的拉锯战"，竟已沦为华盛顿内部的常态！ 美国历史上第一次——总统对美联储决策公然施压，美联储的所谓"独立性"成了笑话。降息与否，已不 仅关乎通胀和就业，更成了博弈工具。 金融圈弥漫悲观气息，连国际大行都亮出黄牌："美联储一旦妥协，两类资产首当其冲。" 第一，重仓美债的机构——可能割肉割到怀疑人生！国债利率下行，美元贬值，持有价值一轮双杀。养 老基金、外储管理人头皮发麻。 ...