炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 【国泰海通：多重因素支持中国权益表现 维持对A/H股战术性超配观点】智通财经11月25日电，国泰海 通证券发布研报称，多重因素支持中国权益表现，维持对A/H股的战术性超配观点。全球风险偏好大幅 承压导致的资产波动叠加恐慌抛售使得微观交易风险大幅释放。随着十五五开年经济增速的重要性，政 策窗口期临近，市场后续有望建立新预期。短期监管层对于稳定资本市场具备较强决心与行动部署。过 去造成股市估值折价的因素已有所消解，随着尾部风险下降以及人民币资产逐步企稳，中国资本市场处 于估值回升和大发展的周期，后续或仍有较大上行空间。中国权益相较于其他主要大类资产的风险回报 比较高。 转自：智通财经 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月23日 宏观经济周报 增长换引擎，财富换赛道 考虑 2035 远景目标的合意水平为人均 GDP 达到 2.9 万美元，这要求"十五 五"期间中国经济运行逻辑从单一追求实际 GDP 增速，转向"生产力提升+ 温和通胀+汇率升值"的增长新范式，各类资产的定价逻辑与相对吸引力也 将被系统性改变。在这一新格局下，权益市场正站上舞台中央，迎来系统性 重估。其优势主要源于三个方面的支撑：盈利基础、估值环境和相对收益。 从盈利基础看，新增长范式更加关注通胀水平和名义 GDP 的增长，这实际上 是对企业盈利能力和资本回报率的重视。过去，在单一强调生产法 GDP 的模 式下，经济增长与企业利润、居民收入之间出现脱节，甚至出现"增长不增 收"的困境。如今，通过"反内卷"和提升名义 GDP 的政策权重，经济增长 将更直接地转化为企业营收与利润的提升。生产力进步带来真实价值创造， 而温和通胀环境则有助于企业维护合理定价、改善利润率，这些都将为上市 公司盈利提供扎实支撑。 在估值层面，人民币汇率的升值预期将成为重要推动力。建设"强大的货币" 需要提升人民币在国际储备和交易中的比重，而这离不开一个有深度 ...

新华财经上海11月22日电 2025年已接近尾声，全球大类资产配置有何趋势，A股市场哪些板块更具投资价值，跨年行情又会呈现出哪些新的特征？围绕资产 配置与股市行情，在近期举行的第十四届"沪上金融家"的颁奖活动上，来自九方智投的多位业界投资专家接受了新华财经采访。他们表示，增配人民币资产 或已成为全球资产配置的重要趋势，得益于中国经济稳健复苏和人工智能（AI）等科技创新的支撑，A股市场有望继续上行，跨年行情值得期待，新能源、 消费等板块具备投资价值。 人民币资产受全球资本配置青睐 今年以来，全球经济复苏分化、美国关税政策扰动、美联储降息博弈、美股AI泡沫讨论持续、中国资产重估叙事等多重因素相互交织，驱动着各类资产估 值重构与资金流向调整。全球资本正重新评估不同区域资产的风险收益比，并调整相关资产配置。 A股有望继续向上拓展空间 从今年全球大类资产配置来看，两条核心主线已清晰显现。九方智投首席投顾黄伟分析认为，第一条主线是避险，黄金等贵金属价格大幅上涨，成为全球资 金的重要选择，各国央行持续增持黄金，进一步印证了市场避险需求旺盛。第二条主线是风险资产的"洼地效应"，尽管全球股票市场流动性依然充裕，但美 债收益率上 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership Changes - The discussion around the Federal Reserve leadership changes is intensifying, with speculation about the next chairperson as Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026 [4] - The anticipated leadership change is impacting liquidity in financial markets, particularly influencing the precious metals market [4][6] Group 2: Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver prices have been rising, with related ETFs also increasing, driven by market concerns over potential shifts in monetary policy under new leadership [6] - Gold is viewed as a core asset in long-term investment strategies, and the current leadership change is seen as a catalyst for short-term price movements [6] Group 3: Chinese Companies' Earnings Reports - Xiaomi's earnings report was average, but negative media and security concerns have led to market uncertainty, with a critical support level at 40 yuan [8] - Pinduoduo's earnings showed a 9% revenue growth and a 17% profit increase, but the market response has been lukewarm due to concerns over future performance and market management strategies [10][12] - Pinduoduo's growth is now reliant on cost-cutting measures rather than revenue increases, indicating a shift away from its previous high-growth phase [12][14] Group 4: Nvidia's Earnings and AI Industry Dynamics - Nvidia's earnings report is crucial for market sentiment, as it reflects the health of the global AI industry [16][17] - Key metrics of focus include current revenue and future guidance, with potential implications for the broader tech sector [17][19] - Google's introduction of the Gemini 3 Pro model poses a competitive threat to Nvidia, as it utilizes proprietary technology that may reduce reliance on Nvidia's GPUs [21][22] Group 5: Outlook on Chinese Assets - International investment banks are showing optimism towards Chinese assets, particularly in the tech and AI sectors, amidst recent market volatility [25][27] - Morgan Stanley and UBS have highlighted structural opportunities in the Chinese tech sector, suggesting a growing interest from Western capital [27] - The current market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with a focus on technology and AI sectors for long-term investment strategies [29]

黄文涛、刘天宇、朱林宁（黄文涛系中信建投证券首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事） 摘要 核心观点 1. "十五五"时期宏观经济将实现增长模式、供求关系、改革开放、风险重点和底线思维"五个转变"。 2. 2026年是转型升级之年、提振内需之年、风险收敛之年、政策宽松之年。 3. 随着人民币资产重估进一步强化，A股港股的新崛起有"新四牛"逻辑：一是资金流入牛，二是科技创新牛，三是制度改革牛，四是消费升级牛。 摘要 "十五五"时期的中国经济：五个转变 "十五五"规划中新质生产力、民生和安全仍是三大主线。经济将实现"五个转变"：经济增长模式转变、供求关系再平衡、全面深化改革开放、风险防范重点 调整、底线思维内涵升级。 2026年宏观经济展望：五大亮点 我国经济增长的内生动能正在深刻重构，向科技创新育新重构，向现代产业体系重构，向强大的国内市场重构，向人力资源开发重构。预计2026年GDP全年 目标为5%。主要有五大亮点支撑： 一是关税冲击边际缓和，中美将进入战术性博弈降温、结构性博弈不改的相对稳定期。外需拖累有望减轻，出口保持韧性。 二是科技创新加快突破，产业升级持续提速。科技创新将从研发端逐步向市场端扩散，带动 ...

Macro Dynamics - The central bank aims to promote the internationalization of the RMB and enhance the level of capital account openness, focusing on financial market system construction and high-level opening-up [2] - The development of a "technology board" in the bond market is emphasized to support private technology enterprises and investment institutions in issuing bonds [2] - The report highlights the need for a multi-tiered bond market and the high-quality development of the panda bond market [2] REITs Projects - The National Development and Reform Commission has recommended a total of 105 REITs projects to the China Securities Regulatory Commission, with 83 projects already issued and listed [3] - These projects cover 10 industries and 18 asset types, with a total fund issuance amount of 207 billion yuan, expected to drive new project investments exceeding 1 trillion yuan [3] Manufacturing Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a notice to accelerate the systematic layout and high-level construction of pilot platforms in the manufacturing sector [4] - The focus is on strengthening pilot platforms based on strategic positioning, technical advantages, and future potential, with a pathway from reserve platforms to national-level manufacturing pilot platforms [4] Environmental Policy - South Korea has approved a new greenhouse gas reduction plan, aiming for a 53% to 61% reduction from 2018 levels by 2035, exceeding the initial target of 50% to 60% [5] Financial Institutions - China Construction Bank will implement new trading rules for personal gold accumulation business starting November 15, 2025, to protect investor rights [6] - The new rules will consider international and domestic gold price trends, market liquidity, and other factors for customer pricing [6] Market Data - The ChiNext index fell over 1% on November 11, with the consumer sector showing volatility and several stocks hitting the limit up [8] - The total financing balance in the two markets increased by 7.67 billion yuan as of November 10, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange reporting 1.26 trillion yuan and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange 1.22 trillion yuan [9] Company Dynamics - TBEA Co., Ltd. reported a full order book for its transformers, with production cycles typically ranging from 3 to 6 months [11] - Multiple silicon wafer companies have reduced prices due to a tightening demand from battery manufacturers, leading to panic selling among second and third-tier silicon wafer companies [12] - The first humanoid robot 7S store in China opened in Wuhan, showcasing a comprehensive service system [14] - The South Korean e-commerce platform Weimi Shop has declared bankruptcy, with debts exceeding 2 billion yuan and around 108,000 victims affected [15]

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【中信建投首席：2026年是多维度发展起步年，看好人民币资产】11月11日，中信建投证券2026年峰会 上，首席学家发表演讲。指出2026年总体态势是夯实基础、全面发力的起步年，外部环境为战略反攻 年，结构上是创新育新年。增长动力在于提振内需、建设强大国内市场，政策上财政和货币政策更积 极、呈双宽松，风险挑战方面是风险收敛年。其看好与"十五五"主线携手前行的人民币资产。 ...

格隆汇11月11日｜在证券2026年资本市场峰会上，首席经济学家黄文涛发表演讲称，从总的态势看2026年是夯实基础、全面发力的起步之年，从外部环境看 是战略反攻之年，从经济结构看是创新育新之年，从增长动力看是提振内需、建设强大的国内市场之年，从政策空间看是财政和货币政策更加积极、双宽松 之年，从风险挑战看是风险收敛之年，看好与"十五五"时期夯实基础、全面发力、拥抱新一轮科技和产业革命主线携手前行的人民币资产。 | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证5( | | --- | --- | --- | | 4002.76 | 13289.01 | 1497.1 | | -15.84 -0.39% -138.61 -1.03% -15.38 -1 | | | | 科创50 | 创业板指 | 万得全, | | 1387.53 | 3134.32 | 6378.5 | | -20.02 -1.42% -44.51 -1.40% -32.49 -0 | | | | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证A5( | | 4652.17 | 7291.61 | 5588.2 | | -42.89 -0.91% -52.19 -0. ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the end of the low inflation era in the West, highlighting that the inflation rate is unlikely to return to the previously accepted target of 2%, with a new normal around 3% becoming more probable [4][12]. Inflation Dynamics - The average hotel prices in the U.S. have increased by approximately 20% from 2019 to 2024, with significant price hikes in major cities and high-end hotels [3]. - Food prices have also risen, with typical fast food meals increasing from $15-$18 to over $20, and dinner costs rising from around $60 to $80-$100 [3]. - The inflation rate surged from 2% to between 7% and 9% due to supply chain disruptions, soaring energy prices, and expansive fiscal and monetary policies during the pandemic [4]. Structural Changes in Inflation - The previous low inflation era was largely driven by globalization, which allowed for cost reductions through outsourcing and just-in-time production [4]. - Current trends emphasize supply chain resilience and localization, leading to increased costs as companies build redundancy into their operations [5]. - The transition to green energy and carbon neutrality is creating a long-term capital expenditure cycle, further raising cost structures [5][6]. Labor Market and Cost Pressures - Population aging and labor market constraints are limiting the potential for increased labor participation, leading to upward pressure on wages [6]. - The service sector is experiencing slow recovery, making it difficult to revert to pre-pandemic pricing levels [6]. - Wage stickiness means that even with tightened monetary policy, achieving a 2% inflation rate will be challenging [6]. Fiscal Policy and Inflation Targets - Post-pandemic, public debt and fiscal deficits in the West have increased, complicating the management of inflation and interest rates [7]. - The political landscape may lead to a tolerance for slightly higher inflation rates, with a practical target shifting towards 3% rather than the nominal 2% [8]. China's Role in Global Manufacturing - China is identified as a critical player in the global cost structure, contributing nearly 30% of global manufacturing value added [9]. - The country leads in advanced industries such as electric vehicles and renewable energy, maintaining a comprehensive manufacturing capability across various sectors [9][10]. - Despite some companies diversifying their supply chains, key components and intermediate goods still predominantly come from China, indicating its irreplaceable role in global manufacturing [11]. Investment Implications - In a higher inflation environment, global capital will increasingly favor assets linked to real industrial capabilities and efficient supply chains [12]. - Companies involved in new energy, advanced manufacturing, and critical materials are likely to attract more investment as they possess stable demand and pricing power [12].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75% to 4% has contributed to a weaker US dollar, which, along with China's stable exchange rate policy and strong domestic equity market performance, has led to a strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) [1] Group 1: Exchange Rate and Capital Flows - The RMB's midpoint rate has increased by approximately 1000 basis points this year, surpassing the important threshold of 7.1 [1] - In September 2025, the monthly settlement surplus reached $51 billion, significantly higher than the $14.6 billion surplus in August, marking the highest level since January 2021 [2][3] - The increase in settlement surplus reflects a growing preference for RMB assets among market participants, driven by the Fed's rate cuts and the attractiveness of Chinese assets [1][2] Group 2: Trade and Settlement Data - In September 2025, banks settled 188.09 billion RMB and sold 151.83 billion RMB, with a cumulative settlement of 13.27 trillion RMB and sales of 12.83 trillion RMB from January to September [2] - The trade surplus in September was $90.45 billion, providing significant support for the settlement surplus [5] - The increase in settlement surplus is attributed to both the stability of the RMB and the acceleration of export growth, which has boosted settlement demand [3][5] Group 3: Foreign Investment and Market Sentiment - Foreign capital inflows into China's capital markets have increased, reflecting a positive outlook on RMB assets, with net inflows of $93.1 billion in the first three quarters of the year [1] - The rise in settlement surplus indicates that market participants are optimistic about the RMB's future performance, suggesting a balanced supply and demand in the foreign exchange market [6] - The increase in domestic outward investment has led to a reversal in the foreign payment balance, with a deficit of 22 billion RMB in September, indicating active cross-border capital flows [7][8]