Industry Overview - The Congolese Strategic Mineral Market Regulatory Authority (ARECOMS) announced on June 21 that it will extend the cobalt export ban for three months due to sufficient cobalt inventory in the market [1][23] - The decision will apply to all sources of cobalt ore in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) [23] Price Movement - Since the cobalt export ban was implemented in February, cobalt prices have rebounded significantly from historical lows [2][6] - As of June 20, prices for MB cobalt, cobalt intermediates, and domestic metal cobalt were reported at $15 per pound, $11.2 per pound, and 224,000 yuan per ton, reflecting increases of 58%, 91%, and 47% respectively since February 24 [2][7] - The extension of the export ban is expected to further reduce domestic cobalt inventory and potentially lead to a second round of price increases [2][23] Supply Dynamics - The DRC is the world's largest cobalt resource country, with 2024 reserves accounting for 55% and production for 76% of global totals [2][8] - The DRC's export ban has significantly impacted global supply, and the country is expected to maintain its dominant position in the cobalt market [8] - Despite high growth in Indonesian nickel-cobalt production, it is insufficient to offset the supply contraction caused by the DRC's export ban [13] Demand Factors - The main consumer of cobalt is the power battery sector, which accounted for 47% of global cobalt demand in 2024 [26] - However, downstream demand remains weak, with production rates for key materials showing mixed results [26] Strategic Intent - The DRC's export ban aims to boost cobalt prices and prevent low-cost outflows of strategic resources, while also enhancing the country's international influence [3][32] - The government is likely to continue seeking measures to control cobalt exports to secure long-term strategic benefits [32][33]