锂价狂飙势头仍在持续。 1月12日，碳酸锂主力合约继续飙升，当日一字涨停(涨幅为9%)，报收156060元／吨。碳酸锂现货与期 货价格保持联动，"我的钢铁网"数据显示，1月12日，电池级碳酸锂(晚盘)均价报153400元／吨，吨价 较前一个交易日上涨13800元，再次创下近一年来新高。 "碳酸锂价格的强势拉升，或与锂电池出口退税政策调整有关。"相关人士告诉上海证券报记者，电池产 品增值税出口退税率下调或大幅提升锂电下游企业备货热情，也进一步影响到本就"紧平衡"的碳酸锂市 场。 出口退税政策调整 电池企业备货热情提升 进入2026年，碳酸锂主力合约在5个交易日内累计涨幅达20.06%。从记者了解的情况来看，碳酸锂"开 年就大涨"的情况已超出业内预期。 "从下游需求和市场热度来看，行业肯定是回暖了不少，但锂价能涨这么快，的确也没想到。"青海某年 产万吨级碳酸锂企业人士告诉记者，从实际销售价格来看，目前还没有15万元/吨那么高，但按照期货 及现货价格走势来看，售价超过15万元应该用不了多长时间。 2025年下半年以来，在储能市场需求高速增长的拉动下，碳酸锂价格持续上涨，行业供需进入"紧平 衡"。有业内人士表示，在" ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing fluctuations after a rebound in August, driven by complex market dynamics and a balance of supply and demand [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since June, lithium carbonate prices have significantly increased, leading to improved profits for companies, with signs of a strong demand during the "golden September and silver October" season [1] - The lithium industry is moving towards a "cost control is king" era, with low raw material self-sufficiency and low comprehensive utilization rates of lithium ore being major concerns [2] - The Yichun region in Jiangxi is a key lithium carbonate production base, accounting for 38.8% of national output in the first half of 2025, highlighting its critical role in the industry [2] Group 2: Technological Innovations - New lithium extraction technologies, such as the innovative water extraction technology proposed by the Chinese Academy of Sciences, aim to improve lithium recovery rates and reduce costs [3] - Companies like Dazhong Mining have reported breakthroughs in lithium extraction technology, achieving over 90% recovery rates and significantly reducing waste [3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Balance - The lithium carbonate market is characterized by strong supply resilience, with increased production from lithium spodumene and stable operations in salt lake lithium extraction [4] - Demand is also rising, with record production of lithium iron phosphate batteries and strong energy storage orders, leading to accelerated inventory depletion [4] - Predictions indicate that China's lithium carbonate consumption from January to September 2025 will reach 807,000 tons, a 44% year-on-year increase [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The energy storage sector is expected to provide strong momentum for the lithium industry, with China's cumulative installed capacity reaching 101.3 GW in the first half of the year, doubling year-on-year [5] - Despite the challenges of cost control and price volatility, the lithium industry is poised for a new phase of green development as it navigates through a period of capacity clearing [5]