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多重因素博弈 碳酸锂产业链供需格局改善
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-09-17 16:09
Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing fluctuations after a rebound in August, driven by complex market dynamics and a balance of supply and demand [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since June, lithium carbonate prices have significantly increased, leading to improved profits for companies, with signs of a strong demand during the "golden September and silver October" season [1] - The lithium industry is moving towards a "cost control is king" era, with low raw material self-sufficiency and low comprehensive utilization rates of lithium ore being major concerns [2] - The Yichun region in Jiangxi is a key lithium carbonate production base, accounting for 38.8% of national output in the first half of 2025, highlighting its critical role in the industry [2] Group 2: Technological Innovations - New lithium extraction technologies, such as the innovative water extraction technology proposed by the Chinese Academy of Sciences, aim to improve lithium recovery rates and reduce costs [3] - Companies like Dazhong Mining have reported breakthroughs in lithium extraction technology, achieving over 90% recovery rates and significantly reducing waste [3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Balance - The lithium carbonate market is characterized by strong supply resilience, with increased production from lithium spodumene and stable operations in salt lake lithium extraction [4] - Demand is also rising, with record production of lithium iron phosphate batteries and strong energy storage orders, leading to accelerated inventory depletion [4] - Predictions indicate that China's lithium carbonate consumption from January to September 2025 will reach 807,000 tons, a 44% year-on-year increase [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The energy storage sector is expected to provide strong momentum for the lithium industry, with China's cumulative installed capacity reaching 101.3 GW in the first half of the year, doubling year-on-year [5] - Despite the challenges of cost control and price volatility, the lithium industry is poised for a new phase of green development as it navigates through a period of capacity clearing [5]