Group 1 - The strategy of selling short-term Japanese government bonds and buying long-term bonds is gaining popularity due to expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and upcoming fiscal spending, leading to a flatter yield curve [1] - The yield difference between 5-year and 30-year Japanese government bonds has narrowed by over 7 basis points this month, reaching the narrowest level since late April, which is a larger change compared to the U.S. and contrasts with the widening yield gap in France [1] - Investors, including Vanguard and Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, see value in ultra-long bonds, while T. Rowe Price anticipates that tightening policies from the Bank of Japan will pressure the short-term bond market [1] Group 2 - Despite expectations for the Bank of Japan to maintain its current policy, the likelihood of interest rate hikes is increasing due to the weak yen, which could further elevate domestic inflation levels, with overnight index swaps indicating a 50% chance of a rate hike by year-end [3] - HSBC's Asia-Pacific interest rate strategist notes that the current pricing for potential rate hikes in October and December seems low, suggesting that strong economic fundamentals may prompt the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy further [3] - Vanguard is preparing for a "flattening trade," betting on a narrowing gap between long-term and short-term yields, with increased bets on rising two-year swap rates and short positions on five-year Japanese government bonds while going long on 25-year bonds [3]