日本持续的通胀数据削弱了持有固定收益资产的吸引力，并不断强化市场对日本央行将进一步收紧货币政策的预期。 彭博MLIV策略师Mark Cranfield指出，日本国债期货未平仓合约的近期上涨表明，激进的交易员对于10月份加息的信念正 在增强，认为届时市场将完全消化这一预期。 日本国债市场持续遭遇抛售潮。 8月26日，日本10年期国债收益率一度升至1.627%，为2008年10月以来最高；日本10年期国债期货跌至2009年以来最低水 平。有分析称，导致日本长期国债收益率上涨的主要原因是，投资者预期日本政府可能推出新的财政刺激措施，或将导 致债券发行量大幅增加。 另外， 日本通胀持续升温 ，增加了日本央行重启加息周期的可能性，进一步推高了日本国债收益率。日本央行行长植田 和男近日表示，日本的薪资上涨使得加息条件正逐步形成。目前分析师普遍预计日本央行将在今年晚些时候至少加息25 个基点。 猛烈抛售 8月26日，日本国债市场遭遇猛烈抛售，日本10年期国债收益率日内最高升至1.627%，为2008年10月以来最高；日本10年 期国债期货跌至2009年以来最低水平。 早些时候，日本30年期国债收益率一度升至3.235%，突 ...

新华财经东京8月22日电（记者刘春燕）东京股市两大股指22日收涨。日经225种股票平均价格指数收盘 微涨0.05%，东京证券交易所股票价格指数上涨0.58%。 在连续3个交易日下跌之后，由于投资者逢低买入操作增加，东京股市两大股指当天微幅高开。早盘期 间两大股指围绕上一个交易日收盘价呈现小幅波动态势。午盘时段，东证股指企稳，日经股指则受投资 者抛售高价科技股拖累，直至尾盘时段才由跌转涨。日本总务省当天公布7月消费价格指数，令投资者 对日本央行加息预期上升，带动银行类股票上涨，对大盘形成支撑。 至收盘时，日经指数上涨23.12点，收于42633.29点；东证指数上涨17.92点，收于3100.87点。 从板块来看，东京证券交易所33个行业板块多数上涨，保险业、证券及商品期货交易业、银行业等板块 涨幅靠前；化学、航空运输业、服务业等8个板块当天下跌。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Labor reported a decrease of 3,000 in initial jobless claims, bringing the total to 224,000, which is in line with levels seen in November 2021 and below the expected 225,000 and previous 226,000 [1] - Continuing claims for unemployment benefits fell to 1.953 million, lower than the expected 1.967 million and previous 1.974 million, indicating persistent challenges for job seekers [1] - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly expressed opposition to a significant 50 basis point rate cut in the upcoming September meeting, suggesting it could signal unnecessary urgency [1] Group 2 - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee urged the Fed not to rush into rate cuts until inflation is fully under control, highlighting internal divisions within the Fed regarding the pace of rate cuts [1] - Daly supports a gradual shift towards a more neutral policy stance over the next year, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments [1]

日债拍卖再度预冷，市场对日本央行紧缩政策预期和市场流动性不足的担忧加剧。 本周三，日本五年期国债拍卖出现2020年以来最低需求，拍卖结果推动债券价格走低，五年期收益率一度上涨3个基点至1.07%。 此次拍卖的投标倍数仅为2.96倍，远低于上次拍卖的3.54倍和12个月平均值3.74倍。日本央行政策委员会意见摘要显示，央行可能在年底前再次加 息，这一预期削弱了投资者对当前收益率水平的兴趣。 而在本周二，据机构经纪商数据，基准10年期国债周二全天无任何交易，这是自2023年3月27日以来首次出现此类情况。隔夜指数掉期已完全反映 出日本央行明年4月前加息25个基点的可能性。 拍卖需求疲软反映加息预期，流动性枯竭加剧担忧 五年期国债拍卖表现不佳主要源于投资者对日本央行进一步紧缩政策的预期。 SMBC日兴证券高级利率策略师Miki Den表示："考虑到日本央行今年晚些时候加息的可能性，1%的收益率水平并不够充分。" 本次拍卖技术指标也显示需求不足。尾差（平均价格与最低接受价格之间的差距）为0.03，高于上月拍卖的0.02。截止价格为99.71，低于彭博调 查预估的99.72。 Okasan Securities首席债券 ...

特约评论员陈迅 据新华社报道，8月12日，日本东京股市两大股指显著上涨。日经225种股票平均价格指数收盘上涨 2.15%，东京证券交易所股票价格指数上涨1.39%。有分析认为，投资者已经接受日本央行将继续加息 的现实，在美国对日关税谈判后，金融市场上投资者情绪开始恢复，日经指数在12日创出历史新高。 日本央行近日公布的7月货币政策会议意见摘要显示，一位委员暗示，鉴于美国关税的影响，日本央行 可能在今年年底再次加息。日本的加息预期再次在局部引发一些投资者的关注。不过笔者认为，目前的 经济大环境中，日本央行不存在立即加息的条件。 表面上看，日本的通胀水平(6月为3.3%)目前高于美国的2.6%和欧元区的2.0%。但目前美国的政策利率 为4.25%~4.5%，欧元区为2%，两相对比，日本利率(目前为0.5%)的确低得过分。这反过来刺激市场产 生一种根深蒂固的看法：超低利率导致的低日元又被视为"通胀率一直高于央行通胀目标2%"的主要原 因。因此，如果日本央行还宣扬其坚持2%的通胀目标，那么快速加息才是合理行为。然而截至目前， 日本央行不断解释其维持超低利率的原因是基于其重视的所谓"基础通胀率"依然低于2%，而这个缺乏 ...

Market Reaction - The Japanese stock market experienced a significant drop, with the Nikkei 225 index falling over 900 points and breaching the 40,000 mark, resulting in a decline of more than 2% [1][2] - The Japanese yen also saw a sharp decline against the US dollar, while the 5-year Japanese government bond yield decreased by 9 basis points to 0.99% [1] Banking Sector Impact - The banking sector faced a collective downturn, with the Tokyo Stock Exchange Bank Index dropping over 4% [1][2] - Notable declines in individual bank stocks included Mizuho Financial Group down nearly 5%, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Chiba Bank, and Fukuoka Financial all down over 4%, and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial down 3.90% [2] Economic Policy and Inflation Outlook - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained its policy rate at 0.5% but raised its core CPI inflation forecast for fiscal years 2025 to 2027, indicating a recognition of strong inflation momentum [3][4] - The BOJ's assessment of inflation risks was adjusted from "tending to decline" to "overall balanced," suggesting a potential for future interest rate hikes [3] Future Interest Rate Expectations - A growing number of economists predict that the BOJ may raise interest rates sooner than previously expected, with 42% of surveyed economists anticipating a rate hike in October [5] - The BOJ's recent adjustments to inflation expectations and risk assessments indicate progress towards potential rate changes [5] Investment Strategy Adjustments - Norinchukin Bank's CEO announced a cautious approach to investments following a $12 billion loss in US Treasury investments, emphasizing the need to correct previous risk imbalances [7] - The bank plans to diversify its investment strategy and reduce exposure to long-term Japanese government bonds [8]

Market Overview - The Japanese stock market opened lower and experienced significant declines, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping over 900 points and falling below the 40,000 mark, resulting in a daily decline of more than 2% [1][2] - The Japanese yen also saw a sharp decline against the US dollar, while the 5-year Japanese government bond yield fell by 9 basis points to 0.99% [1] Banking Sector Impact - The banking sector faced a collective downturn, with the Tokyo Stock Exchange Bank Index dropping over 4% [2] - Notable declines in individual bank stocks included Mizuho Financial Group down nearly 5%, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Chiba Bank, and Fukuoka Financial down over 4%, and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial down 3.90% [2] Economic and Monetary Policy Insights - The Bank of Japan maintained its policy interest rate at 0.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without changes since the rate was raised from 0.25% earlier this year [2] - The Bank of Japan revised its core CPI inflation forecast for fiscal years 2025 to 2027, increasing the expected inflation rate from 2.2% to 2.7% for 2025, driven by rising food prices [3] - The Bank of Japan acknowledged the strong momentum of inflation and indicated a potential shift towards tightening monetary policy, including possible interest rate hikes [3][4] Future Rate Hike Expectations - A survey indicated that approximately 42% of economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in October, an increase from 32% in a previous survey [4] - While no consensus exists for a rate hike in September, about 25% of respondents believe it could happen as early as next month, with 60% suggesting October as the earliest possibility [4] Investment Strategy Adjustments - Norinchukin Bank's CEO announced a cautious approach following a $12 billion loss in US Treasury investments, emphasizing the need to correct previous investment imbalances [5] - The bank plans to diversify its investment portfolio and reduce exposure to long-term Japanese government bonds, focusing on dynamic adjustments based on yield curves [5]

Core Insights - Japan's real wages have seen a significant decline, dropping 2.9% year-on-year in May, which is the largest decrease since September 2023, primarily due to inflation outpacing wage growth [2] - The nominal wages increased by 1% in May, but this was substantially below market expectations, indicating ongoing pressure on the cost of living ahead of the upcoming elections [2] - The political landscape is becoming increasingly challenging for Prime Minister Kishida, as public dissatisfaction grows due to rising prices and stagnant wages [2][3] Wage and Inflation Data - Consumer inflation in Japan rose by 4.0% year-on-year in May, with core inflation at 3.7%, significantly above the Bank of Japan's target of 2% [2] - Basic wages increased by 2.1% year-on-year in May, while stable indicators excluding bonuses and overtime showed a 2.4% rise, maintaining a growth rate above 2% for nearly two years [3] - The average wage increase from spring labor negotiations reached 5.25%, the highest in 34 years, covering about 10% of the workforce [4] Economic and Political Implications - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party has proposed cash handouts and measures to boost wages, but public support appears to favor opposition proposals for tax cuts [3] - The Bank of Japan is closely monitoring wage and price dynamics, with the next monetary policy meeting scheduled for July 31, where the benchmark interest rate is expected to remain at 0.5% [3] - Long-term labor shortages are driving wage increases, particularly in the IT sector, but potential threats from increased tariffs could limit companies' ability to sustain wage growth [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that rising energy costs are the primary driver of the recent depreciation of the Japanese yen, which has been further exacerbated by inflationary pressures and market uncertainties [2][3][6] - Japan's reliance on imported oil has led to increased foreign exchange demand, weakening the yen's market liquidity, and contributing to a widening trade deficit [3][6] - The market anticipates potential adjustments to Japan's negative interest rate policy due to rising corporate goods prices, which could provide some support for the yen in the medium term [4][6] Group 2 - There is a growing contradiction between policy interventions and market expectations, as public criticism from U.S. officials regarding the yen's exchange rate has heightened vigilance within the Japanese government [5][6] - The interplay between rising energy import costs and expectations of a policy shift creates a complex environment for the yen, which is likely to face continued pressure in the short term [6]

Group 1 - The auction of 10-year Japanese government bonds showed strong performance, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.51, higher than the 12-month average of 3.14, indicating reduced upward pressure on long-term bond yields due to weakened expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [1][4] - Following a poorly received 20-year bond auction in May that led to record high yields for ultra-long bonds, the Japanese government has adjusted its bond issuance plan to stabilize demand, maintaining the issuance volume of 10-year bonds while reducing that of 20, 30, and 40-year bonds [4] - The sentiment in the Japanese bond market appears positive as the Ministry of Finance's decision to reduce ultra-long bond issuance has been well-received, although caution remains regarding the upcoming 30-year bond auction [4][5] Group 2 - The 10-year Japanese government bond serves as a benchmark for long-term loan rates, significantly impacting mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs [4] - Despite the strong performance of the 10-year bond auction, yields on 30 and 40-year bonds have not significantly declined, reflecting market caution ahead of the 30-year bond auction [5] - The recent short-term survey indicated a significant decline in confidence within the automotive sector, which may influence the Bank of Japan's decisions regarding interest rates [4]