Core Viewpoint - The US dollar has regained strength, surpassing the 100 mark and recovering the 200-day moving average for the first time since early March, supported by various factors including stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll data and hawkish FOMC meeting minutes [1][28]. Group 1: US Dollar Strength - The US government ending the shutdown and the release of September non-farm payroll data exceeding market expectations have weakened the logic for the Federal Reserve to cut rates due to deteriorating employment data [1][25]. - The hawkish tone of the October FOMC meeting minutes has reinforced market expectations that the Fed will not easily cut rates again in December [1][28]. - The weakness of the Japanese yen and British pound has also provided support to the US dollar index [1]. Group 2: Performance of Non-USD Currencies - Non-USD currencies have broadly declined against the strengthening dollar, with the Swiss franc dropping 1.77%, leading the G10 currencies [2]. - The Norwegian krone, Australian dollar, and New Zealand dollar also saw significant declines of 1.59%, 1.27%, and 1.23%, respectively, amid a drop in market risk appetite [2]. - The euro and British pound experienced declines of 0.93% and 0.55%, respectively, influenced by weaker economic data [2][29]. Group 3: Market Focus and Predictions - This week, the market will focus on a series of economic data from the US, particularly PPI inflation and weekly unemployment claims, as well as China's October industrial profits [3][22]. - The market's risk appetite may continue to be volatile, especially after a significant drop in US stocks last week, which could pose a risk to the dollar's further rise [3][36]. - The predicted range for USD/CNY is between 7.09 and 7.14, with expectations for the RMB to maintain a moderately strong trend overall [3][4]. Group 4: RMB Exchange Rate Stability - The RMB showed resilience against the dollar's rise, with only a slight depreciation, while appreciating against a basket of currencies [4][11]. - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index rose by 0.4%, indicating a stable performance despite external pressures from a strong dollar [4][11]. - The RMB's demand is expected to remain balanced, supported by expectations of a moderate appreciation and seasonal factors as the year-end approaches [4][22]. Group 5: UK Economic Outlook - Recent UK economic data has confirmed a weak outlook, raising market expectations for a Bank of England rate cut, with the probability of a cut in December now around 90% [29][33]. - The UK unemployment rate rose to 5%, and retail sales data showed a significant decline, further supporting the case for a rate cut [29][33]. - The upcoming fiscal budget report may also impact the pound, with expectations of increased government borrowing potentially leading to bond market pressures [35].

美元/日元技术分析 从技术面看，隔夜收盘站上155.00心理关口可视为美元兑日元多头的新触发点。 周二（11月18日）亚洲时段，美元/日元短线下挫，一度跌破155.00关口，最新美元兑日元汇率报 155.0400，跌幅0.13%。日本财务大臣片山皋月对近期日元快速贬值表达担忧，引发市场对潜在干预的 猜测，加上避险情绪升温，使日元获得一定支撑。同时，美元缺乏延续买盘，使美元/日元短线跌回155 心理关口下方。 周一公布的官方数据显示，日本经济在7-9月期间出现六个季度以来首次收缩。随着政治阻力加大，这 削弱了市场对日本央行即将加息的预期。日本财务大臣片山皋月周二在例行记者会上表示："我们对外 汇市场近期出现的单边快速波动保持高度警惕。"此番表态引发市场对政府干预的猜测。 日本首相高市早苗正计划推动新一轮税制调整，以刺激消费与投资，同时取消多项燃油附加税，但这些 举措或造成约1.5万亿日元财政缺口，加重日本长期财政负担。 在此背景下，日本第三季度GDP意外下滑，使得市场进一步怀疑日本央行是否有能力在短期内推动加 息，这对日元形成额外阻力。 日元兑美元汇率从2月初以来的最低水平盘中反弹，但缺乏后续买盘或看涨信念。日 ...

美联储内部"鹰派"表态升温，本周关注 9 月非农数据 海外宏观周报（2025.11.10-2025.11.16） 作者 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 核心内容 东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 徐嘉琦 执行总监 冯琳 上周特朗普签署临时拨款法案，美国政府结束史上最长关 门，部分关键数据后续将陆续发布。政府停摆造成的经济 数据空白影响美联储对经济状况的判断，联储内部"鹰派" 表态升温，12 月降息预期回撤推动美债收益率上行。本 周重点关注美国 9 月非农报告（11 月 20 日）。 时间 2025 年 11 月 17 日 上周公布的英国三季度 GDP 季调环比增长 0.1%，9 月失业 率上升至 5.0%。英国财政大臣里夫斯确认，政府不会在 本轮预算案中实施提高所得税税率的措施，财政政策不确 定性动摇市场对英国财政可持续性的信心，十年期国债收 益率大幅上行。 日本央行公布的 10 月货币政策会议审议委员意见摘要显 示，多数委员认为加息条件正在逐步成熟，少数人主张维 持宽松，以观察通胀是否稳定在 2%以上。整体来看，此 次意见摘要释放出"加息预期升温但仍谨慎"的信号，未 来仍需重点关注工资及物价数据。 | | ...

新华财经东京11月13日电 日本东京股市两大股指13日继续上扬。东京证券交易所股票价格指数收盘上 涨0.67%，再创收盘新高。日经225种股票平均价格指数收盘上涨0.43%。 由于投资者积极买入低价股，东证股指当天继续高开，全天走出波动上扬行情。日经股指当天小幅低 开，早盘时段股指上下波动，震荡明显。午盘时段日经股指逐渐企稳，最终收涨。 投资者对日本央行加息预期上升，银行等金融相关股票当天涨势明显。此前累计涨幅较大的软银集团股 票当天继续成为投资者获利回吐操作的主要目标，对日经股指形成拖累。 至收盘时，日经指数上涨218.52点，收于51281.83点。东证指数上涨22.39点，收于3381.72点。 从板块来看，东京证券交易所33个行业板块多数上涨，有色金属、电力及燃气业、证券及商品期货交易 业等板块涨幅靠前，精密机器、信息及通信业、金属制品等8个板块下跌。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Group 1 - The strategy of selling short-term Japanese government bonds and buying long-term bonds is gaining popularity due to expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and upcoming fiscal spending, leading to a flatter yield curve [1] - The yield difference between 5-year and 30-year Japanese government bonds has narrowed by over 7 basis points this month, reaching the narrowest level since late April, which is a larger change compared to the U.S. and contrasts with the widening yield gap in France [1] - Investors, including Vanguard and Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, see value in ultra-long bonds, while T. Rowe Price anticipates that tightening policies from the Bank of Japan will pressure the short-term bond market [1] Group 2 - Despite expectations for the Bank of Japan to maintain its current policy, the likelihood of interest rate hikes is increasing due to the weak yen, which could further elevate domestic inflation levels, with overnight index swaps indicating a 50% chance of a rate hike by year-end [3] - HSBC's Asia-Pacific interest rate strategist notes that the current pricing for potential rate hikes in October and December seems low, suggesting that strong economic fundamentals may prompt the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy further [3] - Vanguard is preparing for a "flattening trade," betting on a narrowing gap between long-term and short-term yields, with increased bets on rising two-year swap rates and short positions on five-year Japanese government bonds while going long on 25-year bonds [3]

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate has risen to 151.5300, reflecting a 0.52% increase, driven by optimism surrounding US-China trade negotiations and delayed expectations for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike [1] - Bank of Japan officials believe there is no urgent need to raise the benchmark interest rate next week, despite the economy moving towards achieving price targets [1] - The central bank will closely analyze economic data and other factors before making a final decision on policy adjustments, with recent developments in financial markets being particularly influential on the yen's impact on inflation [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that if the USD/JPY price breaks above 151.00, it could further rise to the 152.00–152.25 range and potentially extend to the 153.00 supply area [2] - Short-term support for the USD/JPY is around 150.50, with a potential drop below this level testing the psychological barrier of 150.00 and further support at 149.40 and 149.00 [2] - Technical indicators show a bullish short-term trend, with positive signals from the RSI and MACD on both hourly and daily charts, although attention should be paid to resistance and support levels [2]

Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index surged over 4% on October 6, reaching a historic high of 47,699.96 points, with an intraday increase of nearly 2,000 points [1] - The Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX) also hit a record high, closing at 3,216.31, up 87.14 points or 2.78% from the previous day [2] Currency Exchange Rates - The USD/JPY exchange rate rose by 1.56% to 149.74 yen, while the EUR/JPY increased by over 1% to 175.08 yen, marking the highest level since July 2024 [3] - The AUD/JPY exchange rate climbed 1.19% to 98.41 yen, reaching its highest point since January 2025 [3] Bond Market - The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds increased by 0.5 basis points to 1.65% [4] - Mizuho Bank's strategy team noted that uncertainties surrounding the U.S. government shutdown and expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan could push the USD/JPY closer to the 150 mark, although further upward movement may be limited [5] Political Developments - On October 4, former Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi won the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election, potentially becoming Japan's first female Prime Minister [6] - Takaichi supports loose fiscal and monetary policies, which may raise concerns about increased bond supply and lower expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan [7] - The likelihood of a rate hike in December dropped from 68% to 41% following Takaichi's election [7] Economic Outlook - Analysts suggest that Takaichi's responsible expansionary fiscal policy could boost the stock market if it ensures targeted funding in high-growth areas rather than indiscriminate spending [7] - The focus will be on balancing fiscal health with economic growth, with caution advised against excessive fiscal expansion [7]

Core Points - The Tokyo stock market experienced declines on October 1, with the Nikkei 225 index falling by 0.85% and the Tokyo Stock Exchange index dropping by 1.37% [1][2] - Investor profit-taking activities were prevalent, leading to a downward trend in both major indices [1] - Expectations of a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in October contributed to market pressure [1] Market Performance - The Nikkei index closed down by 381.78 points at 44,550.85 points, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange index fell by 42.86 points to 3,094.74 points [2] - Almost all 33 industry sectors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange saw declines, with banking, real estate, and securities trading sectors experiencing the largest drops [2] - Only the pharmaceutical and other products sectors recorded gains during this trading session [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the shift in the stance of the leading candidate for the next president of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, Sanae Takaichi, regarding monetary policy, emphasizing that the implementation should be decided by the Bank of Japan [1][2] - Takaichi's recent statements contrast sharply with her previous dovish remarks from last year, where she labeled interest rate hikes as "foolish," which were interpreted as a potential delay in the normalization of the Bank of Japan's policies [1] - The market is closely monitoring Takaichi's campaign dynamics due to rising expectations for interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan, with speculation of a possible increase as early as October 30 [1] Group 2 - Takaichi expressed caution regarding potential interest rate increases, noting that significantly higher rates could deter corporate investment in new technologies [1] - The Japanese government debt structure is relatively stable, with over 90% of government bonds held by domestic investors, making it one of the most stable bond markets globally [2] - The upcoming election on October 4 will determine the next party leader, but uncertainty remains about whether the winner can ultimately become the Prime Minister due to the party's lack of a majority in both houses of parliament [2]

Global Asset Price Performance - The US dollar assets have strengthened, with mixed performance in global stock markets; US stocks rose while European and Japanese markets generally declined. The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices increased by 0.6%, 0.2%, and 1.2% respectively [2] - The 10-year US Treasury yield continued to decline by 6 basis points, likely due to weak employment data reinforcing rate cut expectations [2] - Oil prices fell, with WTI and Brent crude down by 1% and 0.6% respectively, while London gold prices increased by 3% [2] - The US dollar index rose by 0.5% [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - Employment data has catalyzed rate cut expectations; Federal Reserve Governor Waller reiterated the call for a rate cut in the next meeting. Following the August non-farm payroll data, the probability of a 50 basis point cut in September rose to 12%, with an expected average of 2.8 cuts by year-end [4] - In Japan, the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare announced a 6.3% increase in the minimum wage for the fiscal year, supporting the "wage-price loop" and providing backing for continued rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [4] US Economic Dynamics - Employment data showed weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since the end of 2021. The increase was attributed to more unemployed individuals re-entering the job market, while the U6 unemployment rate also rose by 0.2 percentage points [8] - The ADP reported that new job additions in August fell to 54,000, and initial jobless claims reached a six-month high, indicating a cooling labor market and reinforcing expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [8] - Tariffs are beginning to impact consumer spending, with the Fed's Beige Book indicating stagnant economic activity across most regions, and many households experiencing wage growth that has not kept pace with rising prices [9] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - In Europe, long-term bond yields have significantly increased, with the Eurozone CPI growth rate at 2.1% and the unemployment rate steady at 6.2%. Concerns over government debt have risen due to increased fiscal spending in response to geopolitical and economic recovery challenges [19] - In the UK, the 30-year government bond yield surpassed 5.7%, the highest since 1998, while France's 30-year bond yield exceeded 4.5% [19] - Japan's manufacturing sector remains under pressure, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.7%, indicating contraction, despite nominal wage growth reaching 4.1% in July [19]