个股方面，住友制药、雅马哈发动机、日产汽车、松下等涨幅居前。 汇率方面，美元兑日元（USD/JPY）上涨1.56%，至149.74日元；欧元兑日元汇率上涨超1%，至175.08日元，触及2024年7月以来的最高点；澳元兑日元上 涨1.19%，至98.41日元，触及2025年1月以来的最高水平。 | 美元兑日元 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I USDJPY | | | | | | | | 149.7400 +2.3000 +1.5600% | | | | | | | | 10-06 08:23:06 | | | | | | 反向 | | 今开 | 149.1900 | 最高 | 149.7700 | 振幅 | | 0.4951% | | 昨收 | 147.4400 | 最低 | 149.0400 | 波幅 | | 0.7300 | | 分时 | 五日 | 日K | 周K | 目K | | 更多, ◎ | | 最新:149.7400 +2.3000 +1.5600% | | | | | | 分时成交 | | 149.770 ...

新华社东京10月1日电（记者刘春燕）日本东京股市两大股指10月1日下跌。日经225种股票平均价格指 数收盘下跌0.85%，连续4个交易日下跌。东京证券交易所股票价格指数下跌1.37%。 从板块来看，东京证券交易所33个行业板块几乎全面下跌，银行业、房地产业、证券及商品期货交易业 等板块跌幅靠前；仅医药品、其他制品2个板块上涨。 由于投资者获利回吐操作继续涌现，1日早盘东京股市两大股指双双低开。早盘期间两大股指波动向 下，软银集团、东京电子等龙头股走软拖累日经股指下跌500多点。午盘时段大盘跌幅有所收窄。分析 人士指出，除了财季初机构投资者容易采取调整持仓操作外，市场对日本央行或于10月加息的预期上升 也是当天大盘承压的原因。 至收盘时，日经股指下跌381.78点，收于44550.85点；东证股指下跌42.86点，收于3094.74点。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:王佳宁】 ...

智通财经APP获悉，日本执政党自民党下任党首的热门候选人高市早苗的最新表态中，她试图与一年前 发表的鸽派言论划清界限，强调日本央行的货币政策实施应由其自主决定。周三与其他四位候选人辩论 时，高市明确表示："就经济政策而言，政府有责任决定财政和货币政策的方向，而货币政策的实施手 段应由日本央行决定。这是我去年讲话的前提。" 一些分析人士指出，高市早苗若重申去年那种鸽派立场，将因政策倾向压低利率而可能进一步推低日元 汇率，使美元兑日元突破150这一重要关口，并加剧由进口价格上涨带动的通胀压力，因此她很难再重 复去年的政策基调。 这一表态与去年自民党总裁选举期间她称"提高利率是愚蠢的"形成鲜明对比——当时该言论被解读为若 其当选可能延缓日本央行政策正常化进程，最终她在决选中落败，但如今被视为今年选举领跑者，而这 场选举或将决定日本下一任首相归属。 根据选举安排，自民党将于10月4日投票选出下一任党魁，但因该党在议会两院均未获多数席位，获胜 者能否最终出任首相仍存不确定性。 市场对高市竞选动态高度关注，因日本央行加息预期持续升温，两名董事会成员对上周维持利率不变的 决定持异议，更强化了最早10月30日可能再次加息的猜 ...

Global Asset Price Performance - The US dollar assets have strengthened, with mixed performance in global stock markets; US stocks rose while European and Japanese markets generally declined. The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices increased by 0.6%, 0.2%, and 1.2% respectively [2] - The 10-year US Treasury yield continued to decline by 6 basis points, likely due to weak employment data reinforcing rate cut expectations [2] - Oil prices fell, with WTI and Brent crude down by 1% and 0.6% respectively, while London gold prices increased by 3% [2] - The US dollar index rose by 0.5% [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - Employment data has catalyzed rate cut expectations; Federal Reserve Governor Waller reiterated the call for a rate cut in the next meeting. Following the August non-farm payroll data, the probability of a 50 basis point cut in September rose to 12%, with an expected average of 2.8 cuts by year-end [4] - In Japan, the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare announced a 6.3% increase in the minimum wage for the fiscal year, supporting the "wage-price loop" and providing backing for continued rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [4] US Economic Dynamics - Employment data showed weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since the end of 2021. The increase was attributed to more unemployed individuals re-entering the job market, while the U6 unemployment rate also rose by 0.2 percentage points [8] - The ADP reported that new job additions in August fell to 54,000, and initial jobless claims reached a six-month high, indicating a cooling labor market and reinforcing expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [8] - Tariffs are beginning to impact consumer spending, with the Fed's Beige Book indicating stagnant economic activity across most regions, and many households experiencing wage growth that has not kept pace with rising prices [9] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - In Europe, long-term bond yields have significantly increased, with the Eurozone CPI growth rate at 2.1% and the unemployment rate steady at 6.2%. Concerns over government debt have risen due to increased fiscal spending in response to geopolitical and economic recovery challenges [19] - In the UK, the 30-year government bond yield surpassed 5.7%, the highest since 1998, while France's 30-year bond yield exceeded 4.5% [19] - Japan's manufacturing sector remains under pressure, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.7%, indicating contraction, despite nominal wage growth reaching 4.1% in July [19]

Group 1 - The upcoming 10-year government bond auction in Japan is seen as a critical test of investor demand amid rising expectations for interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and ongoing political uncertainty [1][2] - The Bank of Japan is gradually reducing its large-scale bond purchases, leading to an increase in government bond yields, which have reached multi-year highs [1][2] - Recent bond auctions have shown weak demand, with the last 10-year bond auction demand falling below the 12-month average and the 2-year bond auction hitting a 16-year low [1][2] Group 2 - Market analysts suggest that the continuation of the interest rate hike cycle and the ongoing reduction in bond purchase scale will likely push bond yields higher, making investors cautious about buying at current levels [2][4] - The outcome of the ruling party's election review will influence whether lawmakers support an early leadership election, adding another layer of uncertainty to the market [2][4] - The Japanese Ministry of Finance is consulting primary dealers about further reducing the issuance of long-term bonds, which may impact market dynamics [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has been stagnant in the range of 140 to 150 yen per dollar since April, with no clear direction despite U.S. government pressures for currency correction and interest rate cuts [2][4]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Rate Dynamics - The sensitivity of the yen exchange rate is decreasing, and even with heightened expectations for changes in U.S.-Japan monetary policy, there is no clear directional movement in the exchange rate [2][6]. - The yen briefly appreciated to 146 yen per dollar following expectations of a narrowing interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan, but quickly returned to 147 yen [4][6]. - The linkage between the yen exchange rate and the U.S.-Japan interest rate differential, which was significant during last year's depreciation of the yen, is weakening this year [6][10]. Group 2: Market Behavior and Supply-Demand Factors - Despite the narrowing interest rate differential, market participants betting on yen appreciation have not disappeared, with speculative funds reaching a historical maximum in yen purchases in April [6][9]. - Japanese export companies, which previously bought yen to mitigate losses from appreciation, are now showing minimal movement in following suit [6][9]. - The balance of trade and service accounts has been nearly stable this year, indicating that neither buying nor selling pressure on the yen is significantly influencing its value [9][10]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Considerations - It is essential to consider supply-demand conditions alongside U.S.-Japan monetary policy when predicting the yen exchange rate [10]. - The ambiguous statements from the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell suggest a cautious approach to discussing policy changes, which may prevent market participants from actively buying yen [10].

Group 1 - Berkshire Hathaway increased its stake in Mitsubishi Corporation from 9.74% to 10.23%, triggering disclosure requirements under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act [1] - Following the announcement, Mitsubishi Corporation's stock price rose nearly 3%, contributing to an overall increase in the Japanese stock market [1] - Berkshire Hathaway's total investment in the five major Japanese trading companies has reached $23.5 billion, with an average annual return of 15.3% since the initial investment [3] Group 2 - The Nikkei 225 index has shown significant growth this year, with an increase of over 7% since the beginning of the year, recently surpassing 42,800 points [4] - Japan's economy expanded faster than expected in the last quarter, with a GDP growth rate of 1.0% for Q2, leading to speculation about potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [5] - A survey indicated that nearly two-thirds of economists believe the Bank of Japan will raise its key interest rate by at least 25 basis points later this year, reflecting a shift in expectations [5][6]

随着投资者对日本央行加息的预期升温，日本周四进行的两年期国债拍卖备受市场关注。市场预期此次拍卖的需求将保持稳健。数据显示，两年期日债收益 率约为0.87%，仅比2008年以来的最高水平低几个基点;五年期日债收益率约为1.16%，同样接近17年前的水平。 Bloomberg策略师Mark Cranfield指出："日本债券交易员可能将在今日两年期国债拍卖需求数据公布前处于观望状态。通常而言，两年期债券拍卖并不会引 发波澜，但在当前长期日本国债市场高度敏感的环境下，每一次债券发行都给收益率曲线带来额外风险。" 日本超长期国债的收益率也在攀升，原因是日本央行逐步缩减其大规模债券购买计划。除了担忧不断上升的通胀之外，在日本执政联盟于7月上议院选举中 失利后，市场对日本政府将出台新的财政刺激政策的预期也引发了对日本国债发行规模增加的担忧。 在美联储杰克逊霍尔年度研讨会上，日本央行行长植田和男表示，日本紧张的劳动力市场可能会持续推动工资上涨。这进一步加剧了市场对日本央行可能最 早在10月货币政策会议上采取行动的猜测。市场目前预计日本央行在10月加息的可能性约为53%。 市场对日本央行加息预期的升温受到日本经济增长韧性以及 ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY currency pair is experiencing upward momentum, approaching the 148.00 level, supported by a slight increase in the US dollar and US Treasury yields, but concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and Trump's latest tariff threats are dampening market sentiment, providing support for the safe-haven yen [1]. Technical Overview - A breakout above the 148.00 level is seen as a key trigger for bullish sentiment in USD/JPY, with potential upward movement towards the significant 200-day simple moving average (SMA) just above 149.00, and further buying could lead to attempts to reclaim the psychological level of 150.00 [4]. - Support is identified at the 147.80 level, with a potential decline below this support leading to further drops towards the 147.30 area and ultimately the 147.00 level, which would negate the positive outlook and shift the short-term trend to bearish [5]. Fundamental Overview - Recent economic data includes a 3.0% increase in AUD construction work done, a GfK consumer confidence survey in the Eurozone showing -23.6, and a notable decline in the US MBA mortgage applications by 1.4% [6]. - President Trump's unprecedented order to dismiss Cook shocked investors, leading to initial declines in the dollar, which later rebounded after Cook's commitment to remain in position [6]. - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish remarks indicated a higher likelihood of rate cuts in the coming months, contributing to a decline in USD/JPY by over 1%, while the Bank of Japan's governor raised concerns about inflation from wage increases, hinting at conditions for further rate hikes [7].

日本持续的通胀数据削弱了持有固定收益资产的吸引力，并不断强化市场对日本央行将进一步收紧货币政策的预期。 彭博MLIV策略师Mark Cranfield指出，日本国债期货未平仓合约的近期上涨表明，激进的交易员对于10月份加息的信念正 在增强，认为届时市场将完全消化这一预期。 日本国债市场持续遭遇抛售潮。 8月26日，日本10年期国债收益率一度升至1.627%，为2008年10月以来最高；日本10年期国债期货跌至2009年以来最低水 平。有分析称，导致日本长期国债收益率上涨的主要原因是，投资者预期日本政府可能推出新的财政刺激措施，或将导 致债券发行量大幅增加。 另外， 日本通胀持续升温 ，增加了日本央行重启加息周期的可能性，进一步推高了日本国债收益率。日本央行行长植田 和男近日表示，日本的薪资上涨使得加息条件正逐步形成。目前分析师普遍预计日本央行将在今年晚些时候至少加息25 个基点。 猛烈抛售 8月26日，日本国债市场遭遇猛烈抛售，日本10年期国债收益率日内最高升至1.627%，为2008年10月以来最高；日本10年 期国债期货跌至2009年以来最低水平。 早些时候，日本30年期国债收益率一度升至3.235%，突 ...