美元/日元 美元/日元昨日震荡上行，突破156.00关口并刷新11个交易日高位，现汇价交投于155.70附近。除美联储 官员发表的鹰派言论降温美联储的降息预期对汇价构成了一定的支撑外，日本首相高市早苗反对加息的 报道也是支撑汇价攀升的重要因素。今日关注156.50附近的压力情况，下方支撑在155.00附近。 美元/加元 美元/加元昨日震荡上行，刷新12个交易日高位，现汇价交投于1.3680附近。美元指数在美联储官员鹰 派言论降温降息预期和良好经济数据的支撑下走高是支撑汇价收涨的主要原因。此外，原油价格回落和 贸易不确定激发的避险情绪也对汇价构成了一定的支撑。今日关注1.3750附近的压力情况，下方支撑在 1.3600附近。 责任编辑：陈平 今日需要关注的数据有，德国第四季度季调后GDP季率修正值、德国3月Gfk消费者信心指数和欧元区1 月调和CPI年率。 黄金/美元 黄金昨日震荡下行，一度失守5100关口，现汇价交投于5210附近。除获利回吐对黄金构成了一定的打压 外，时段内美联储官员发表的鹰派言论降温美联储的降息预期也是施压黄金回落的重要因素。不过，地 缘紧张局势和贸易不确定的担忧限制了黄金的回调空间。今日 ...

责任编辑：王永生 责任编辑：王永生 随着日本央行近期加息预期降温，日本国债收益率走低。周一公布的弱于预期的国内生产总值（GDP） 数据降低了日本央行进一步加息的前景。投资者正在关注首相高市早苗的政策举措，尤其是那些旨在降 低生活成本的举措，例如暂时下调食品消费税。5年期日本国债收益率下跌2个基点，至1.650%。2年期 日本国债收益率下跌1.5个基点，至1.25%。 随着日本央行近期加息预期降温，日本国债收益率走低。周一公布的弱于预期的国内生产总值（GDP） 数据降低了日本央行进一步加息的前景。投资者正在关注首相高市早苗的政策举措，尤其是那些旨在降 低生活成本的举措，例如暂时下调食品消费税。5年期日本国债收益率下跌2个基点，至1.650%。2年期 日本国债收益率下跌1.5个基点，至1.25%。 ...

（原标题：?日元强势回归! 财政担忧降温+避险盘涌入 日元即将创2024年11月以来最强周涨幅） 智通财经APP获悉，在市场愈发相信日本首相高市早苗赢得众议院绝大多数席位后，将使得日本政府得 以在维持债券投资者们对财政政策信任的同时扩大刺激之际，日元汇率(日元兑美元)正朝着自2024年11 月以来最大单周涨幅迈进。日元兑美元已连续四个交易日升值，本周迄今累计走强约2.8%。此外，随 着股票市场因AI颠覆预期而面临大规模抛售、加密货币等风险资产抛售加剧，强劲避险需求也对日元 汇率构成支撑。但随着日元大幅走强，也有投资者开始担忧"日元套息交易"面临大规模平仓风险，可能 引发股债汇三市剧烈震荡。 华尔街知名投资机构BCA Research的策略师团队近期发布研报称，日元套息交易是"全球金融市场一颗 滴答作响的定时炸弹"，在日本央行加息预期以及高市早苗刺激政策可能推动长期限国债收益率激增的 背景下，这种长期以来极度受交易员们欢迎的对冲基金策略面临大规模平仓的风险，可能引发剧烈反向 冲击。 投资者们将高市的决定性胜利解读为降低了政治不确定性，并降低了最坏财政结果出现的风险，这有助 于推升日元汇率，并推动日本长期限国债收 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is experiencing significant appreciation against the US dollar, driven by market confidence in Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's electoral victory, which is expected to reduce political uncertainty and fiscal risks, while also supporting the yen amid strong demand for safe-haven assets [1][4]. Group 1: Yen Appreciation and Market Reactions - The yen has strengthened approximately 2.8% this week, marking its largest weekly gain since November 2024, following Kishida's decisive victory [1]. - The appreciation of the yen is supported by strong demand for safe-haven assets as the stock market faces significant sell-offs due to AI disruption expectations and increased risk asset sell-offs [1]. - Investors interpret Kishida's victory as a reduction in political uncertainty, which has helped push down long-term Japanese government bond yields from recent highs [1][4]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Market Expectations - Following the election, there is a growing expectation of a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, which has contributed to the yen's strength [4][5]. - The Japanese government remains vigilant regarding foreign exchange fluctuations, with concerns about possible coordinated interventions to support the yen [4]. - Kishida's administration is expected to implement a rare policy combination of tax cuts without worsening the fiscal deficit, potentially supported by internal funding pools [4]. Group 3: Risks of Yen Carry Trade - The yen carry trade, a highly leveraged cross-market financing strategy, poses a significant risk to global financial markets, particularly if the underlying conditions change [6][7]. - Analysts warn that the carry trade could lead to large-scale unwinding, amplifying market shocks, especially in the context of rising long-term Japanese government bond yields and expectations of fiscal stimulus [6][8]. - The potential for a rapid collapse of the carry trade, similar to past financial crises, is heightened by the current market dynamics, including rising interest rate expectations and deteriorating risk sentiment [7][8].

2026年2月6日，日元结束此前连续五个交易日的走弱态势，在亚洲时段获得逢低买盘支撑。但日美央行 政策对决持续升级，叠加多重制约因素，日元后续上涨动力仍显不足，技术面缺乏明确看涨信号。 从技术结构来看，此前美元兑日元有效突破关键点位并站稳短期均线，短期多头占据主动，但上行动能 已出现放缓迹象，动能指标显示多头力量减弱，后续若无法守住支撑位，短期走势或迎来修正，日元缺 乏明确的技术面看涨信心支撑。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 美国总统特朗普提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什担任下任美联储主席，市场对其政策立场的猜测引发全球 流动性预期扰动，进一步加剧日美货币政策走向的分歧。 曾担任日本财务省负责国际事务副大臣的中尾武彦指出，单纯动用外汇储备干预汇市仅能带来短期震慑 效果，只有配合日本央行稳步加息，才能从根本上扭转日元跌势。他提到当前美日利差仍处高位，日本 实际借贷成本为负，加息步伐缓慢是日元疲软的重要原因。 此次日元止跌主要源于全球风险情绪阶段性降温，避险需求提升了日元作为传统避险货币的吸引力，叠 加市场对日本央行提前加息的预期支撑。不过，日元反弹持续性面临多重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The dramatic decline of the USD/JPY exchange rate on January 26, 2023, was primarily driven by market expectations of coordinated foreign exchange intervention by the US and Japan, reshaping traders' perceptions of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy and the pricing expectations in the Japanese bond market [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The USD/JPY experienced a significant drop from a high of 159.213 to a low of 153.684, with a single-day fluctuation exceeding 500 points, triggering a chain reaction in the Japanese government bond market [1] - The market's shift in sentiment was largely influenced by reports of the New York Federal Reserve conducting currency inquiries, interpreted as a signal for potential joint intervention to curb the depreciation of the yen [1] Group 2: Japanese Bond Market Dynamics - Participants in the Japanese bond market are divided over the assessment of the Bank of Japan's interest rate path, with one side believing that effective currency intervention would reduce the urgency for the central bank to raise rates, while the other speculates that the New York Fed's actions may prompt the Bank of Japan to raise rates to combat imported inflation [2] - The yield curve exhibited a flattening pattern, with short-term rates rising and long-term rates falling, reflecting market pricing for a potential early rate hike by the Bank of Japan [2] - As of January 26, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the Bank of Japan's March meeting increased from 25% to 31%, with expectations for the April meeting exceeding 80% [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The recent decline in the USD/JPY is significant on the 240-minute candlestick chart, with prices breaking through multiple key moving averages and the lower Bollinger Band [3] - Key support levels are identified between 153.35 and 153.60, which is crucial for psychological and technical convergence, while resistance levels are noted between 154.80 and 155.60, marking the initial resistance zone following the intervention-related panic [3] - A stronger resistance zone is identified between 156.50 and 157.50, which includes previous low points and the declining middle Bollinger Band, indicating potential selling pressure if prices rebound into this range [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided to maintain the policy interest rate at 0.75%, aligning with market expectations, while one member voted for a rate hike to 1% [1][3] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Japan's core CPI rose by 3.1% year-on-year in 2025, exceeding the 2% target for four consecutive years, indicating persistent inflationary pressure [3] - The BOJ raised its GDP growth forecast for the fiscal year 2025 to 0.9%, reflecting moderate economic growth [3] - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield has reached a high of 2.239%, indicating rising bond yields amid concerns over the BOJ's policy lagging behind inflation [3] Group 2: Currency and Interest Rate Dynamics - The Japanese yen depreciated to 158.61 against the US dollar, approaching the intervention threshold of 160, driven by the widening interest rate differential with the US [1][4] - The actual interest rate differential between Japan and the US remains around 1.58%, diminishing the attractiveness of the yen [4] - Market expectations for a potential rate hike in April have increased, with a 58% probability of a 25 basis point increase if the yen breaches the 160 mark [4] Group 3: Policy Considerations and Market Reactions - The BOJ's decision to hold rates is seen as a balance between economic resilience and the need for policy adjustment [3] - There is a divergence in market expectations regarding the timing and necessity of a rate hike, with some analysts suggesting a delay until June or July [4] - Key variables influencing future policy include April wage growth data, core inflation trends, and the outcome of the upcoming elections [5]

日本央行本周议息，普徕仕多元收益债券策略联席基金经理钟晓阳称，预计日本央行本次议息会议将按 兵不动。市场普遍预期加息时间将落在6月或7月，但目前看来日本央行可能较预期提早加息。 钟晓阳表示，单靠言论干预，难以逆转日元弱势。虽然日本央行的政策步伐可能落后于形势，或为日元 带来更大下行压力，但考虑到日元相对其他主要货币表现逊色，加上当局有机会进行干预，近期日圆淡 仓或面临较大风险。另一方面，日本政府债券市场近期大幅波动，以长债尤甚。由于长债缺乏策略性配 置资金支持，令价格走势更为敏感，市况亦随之波动。预计这种波动市况将在2026年延续。 ...

Group 1 - Japan's household spending in November 2025 surged by 6.2% month-on-month, reversing a 3.5% decline in October, and showed a year-on-year growth of 2.9%, compared to a 2.9% decline in October [1] - The strong spending data supports hawkish views within the Bank of Japan, potentially leading to an increase in neutral interest rates and the tightening of monetary policy [1] - Private consumption accounts for approximately 55% of Japan's GDP, indicating that robust consumer spending could drive demand-pull inflation, reinforcing the central bank's stance on tightening [1] Group 2 - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is expected to significantly influence market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in March 2026, with economists predicting an increase of 60,000 jobs in December [2] - The ISM services PMI rose from 52.6 in November to 54.4 in December, indicating resilience in the U.S. economy and reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in March [2] - The expectation of continued rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, combined with a potentially dovish stance from the new Federal Reserve chair, remains a key factor influencing the medium-term outlook for the USD/JPY exchange rate [2] Group 3 - Technically, the USD/JPY is currently above the 50-day (155.22) and 200-day (151.56) exponential moving averages (EMA), indicating a bullish tendency; however, the prevailing bearish fundamentals are overshadowing this technical signal [3] - A break below the 50-day moving average and the key support level of 155 could accelerate downward momentum, with the 200-day moving average serving as significant support [3] - If the exchange rate consistently falls below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, it would further reinforce a medium-term bearish price trend [3]

Group 1 - The auction of Japan's 10-year government bonds was successful, attracting many investors seeking high yields, with a subscription ratio of 3.30 compared to 3.59 in the last issuance and an average of 3.24 over the past 12 months [1] - Japan's government bond yields have recently risen to multi-decade highs, with the 10-year yield reaching its highest level since 1999 this week [1] - The market is weighing the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike path and Prime Minister Kishida's spending plans, leading to increased uncertainty regarding future interest rates [2] Group 2 - Analysts noted that the strong demand for the first Japanese government bond auction of the year was within recent ranges, although the bond futures softened post-issuance [2] - Most observers expect the next interest rate hike from the Bank of Japan around mid-year, but some believe it could occur sooner due to the weak yen [2] - The Japanese government plans to reduce the issuance of ultra-long government bonds following the announcement of a record budget draft for the new fiscal year starting in April [3]