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攻守兼备红利策略的轮动增强
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-28 11:11
- The report aims to enhance the original "Defensive and Offensive Dividend Strategy" by incorporating a rotation mechanism based on macroeconomic expectations, adjusting the weights of defensive and offensive scores during the second screening step[3][11][18] - The original strategy involves a two-step stock selection process: first, selecting the top 30% of stocks with high defensive scores from a high-dividend stock pool, and second, selecting the top 30 or 50 stocks based on offensive scores[18] - Defensive score is calculated as: $ 0.5 \times \text{3-year average dividend yield TTM} + 0.3 \times \text{480-day downside volatility} + 0.2 \times \text{3-year non-recurring ROE mean/standard deviation} $[75] - Offensive score is calculated as: $ 0.5 \times \text{forecast dividend yield} + 0.3 \times \text{relative momentum 240_20} + 0.2 \times \text{single-quarter non-recurring net profit year-on-year} $[75] - The enhanced strategy retains the first step of the original strategy and adjusts the weights of defensive and offensive scores based on macroeconomic expectations in the second step[11][74] - When macroeconomic expectations are revised upwards, the strategy selects the top 30 stocks based on offensive scores; when revised downwards, it selects the top 30 stocks based on a combination of 50% offensive and 50% defensive scores[74] - The enhanced strategy shows improved drawdown control, with the maximum drawdown reduced from 27.88% to 24.37% over the entire period from early 2016 to November 7, 2025[11][80][81] - The annualized return of the enhanced strategy is slightly improved, and the annualized volatility is slightly reduced compared to the original strategy[11][80][81] - The enhanced strategy's performance is evaluated by comparing annual returns, maximum drawdowns, and annualized volatility with the original strategy[80][81][82]