Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future outlook of China's fiscal revenue and expenditure, emphasizing the importance of tax revenue growth and the government's fiscal policies in supporting economic stability and growth [4][7][12]. Group 1: Fiscal "Cross-Cycle" Support - The central economic work conference has reiterated the concept of "cross-cycle" fiscal policies, with the Ministry of Finance emphasizing the need to align with these directives for the upcoming year [7][8]. - The revenue side is identified as a crucial source of support for fiscal stability, with a shift in focus from increasing debt to maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels [8][9]. - Tax revenue has shown a significant recovery this year, with the budget execution situation for broad fiscal revenue being the best since 2022, indicating a potential budget surplus for the first time in years [9][12]. Group 2: Future Revenue Support Logic - Three main factors are expected to support revenue growth in the coming year: the tax effects of a bull market, corporate responses to internal competition, and government measures to enhance actual tax rates [12][16][18]. - The bull market is projected to contribute approximately 310 billion yuan in incremental tax revenue, accounting for about 2% of the expected tax revenue for 2024 [12][16]. - The government's focus on standardizing tax incentives and subsidies is anticipated to raise actual tax rates, addressing the current low effective tax rates due to inter-governmental tax competition [18][22]. Group 3: November Fiscal Data Review - In November, fiscal revenue showed a year-on-year decline of 5.2%, while fiscal expenditure decreased by 1.7%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the fiscal landscape [2][40]. - Tax revenue continued to grow despite high base effects, with significant contributions from value-added tax and personal income tax, while non-tax revenue continued to decline [22][23]. - The government’s land sales revenue experienced a substantial drop of 26.8%, indicating volatility in this revenue source, which is critical for local governments [40][48].

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 财政"跨周期"的底气——11 月财政数据点评 事 项 11 月广义财政收入同比-5.2%，10 月同比-0.6%；11 月广义财政支出同比-1.7%， 10 月同比-19.1%。 主要观点 本月，税收收入在高基数上仍同比增长 2.8%、7 月份以来同比增幅高达 6.3%； 明年，我们判断财政收入端有三大逻辑支撑——牛市的税收效应、企业反内 卷、政府反内卷，或仍将成为财政"跨周期"的重要底气： ❖ 一、财政"跨周期"的底气 （一）背景：中央经济工作会议重提"跨周期"，财政部明确对标对表 12 月 12 日，蓝部长表示 "要对标、对表这次会议的要求，编制好明年的预算 盘子，抓好政策的实施，确保党中央的方针政策落地见效" ；财政部党组会议 提出 "按照中央经济工作会议部署安排，明年政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、 提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度， 提升宏观经济治理效能。" （二）理解：财政"跨周期"，收入端或是重要的底气来源 不考虑结转结余等沉淀资金，财政支出=财政收入+债务； 参考中央经济工作会议的表述，在 "保持" 支出总量的前提下，对债务 ...