Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future outlook of China's fiscal revenue and expenditure, emphasizing the importance of tax revenue growth and the government's fiscal policies in supporting economic stability and growth [4][7][12]. Group 1: Fiscal "Cross-Cycle" Support - The central economic work conference has reiterated the concept of "cross-cycle" fiscal policies, with the Ministry of Finance emphasizing the need to align with these directives for the upcoming year [7][8]. - The revenue side is identified as a crucial source of support for fiscal stability, with a shift in focus from increasing debt to maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels [8][9]. - Tax revenue has shown a significant recovery this year, with the budget execution situation for broad fiscal revenue being the best since 2022, indicating a potential budget surplus for the first time in years [9][12]. Group 2: Future Revenue Support Logic - Three main factors are expected to support revenue growth in the coming year: the tax effects of a bull market, corporate responses to internal competition, and government measures to enhance actual tax rates [12][16][18]. - The bull market is projected to contribute approximately 310 billion yuan in incremental tax revenue, accounting for about 2% of the expected tax revenue for 2024 [12][16]. - The government's focus on standardizing tax incentives and subsidies is anticipated to raise actual tax rates, addressing the current low effective tax rates due to inter-governmental tax competition [18][22]. Group 3: November Fiscal Data Review - In November, fiscal revenue showed a year-on-year decline of 5.2%, while fiscal expenditure decreased by 1.7%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the fiscal landscape [2][40]. - Tax revenue continued to grow despite high base effects, with significant contributions from value-added tax and personal income tax, while non-tax revenue continued to decline [22][23]. - The government’s land sales revenue experienced a substantial drop of 26.8%, indicating volatility in this revenue source, which is critical for local governments [40][48].

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 财政"跨周期"的底气——11 月财政数据点评 事 项 11 月广义财政收入同比-5.2%，10 月同比-0.6%；11 月广义财政支出同比-1.7%， 10 月同比-19.1%。 主要观点 本月，税收收入在高基数上仍同比增长 2.8%、7 月份以来同比增幅高达 6.3%； 明年，我们判断财政收入端有三大逻辑支撑——牛市的税收效应、企业反内 卷、政府反内卷，或仍将成为财政"跨周期"的重要底气： ❖ 一、财政"跨周期"的底气 （一）背景：中央经济工作会议重提"跨周期"，财政部明确对标对表 12 月 12 日，蓝部长表示 "要对标、对表这次会议的要求，编制好明年的预算 盘子，抓好政策的实施，确保党中央的方针政策落地见效" ；财政部党组会议 提出 "按照中央经济工作会议部署安排，明年政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、 提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度， 提升宏观经济治理效能。" （二）理解：财政"跨周期"，收入端或是重要的底气来源 不考虑结转结余等沉淀资金，财政支出=财政收入+债务； 参考中央经济工作会议的表述，在 "保持" 支出总量的前提下，对债务 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of tax revenue increasing despite a slowdown in economic growth during July and August, attributing this to several non-economic factors affecting tax collection and government revenue [4][12]. Group 1: Tax Revenue Trends - In August, the broad fiscal revenue increased by 0.3% year-on-year, compared to a 3.6% increase in July. Fiscal expenditure in August rose by 6%, down from 12.1% in July [2]. - Tax revenue growth exceeded 5% in both July and August, driven primarily by domestic value-added tax and corporate income tax, which contributed 3.9 and 4.4 percentage points respectively to tax revenue growth [4][15]. Group 2: Non-Economic Factors Influencing Tax Revenue - Three non-economic factors are identified as influencing tax revenue: 1. "Passive tax pressure" from prices leading to corporate recovery from internal competition [20]. 2. "Active tax pressure" from local protectionism resulting in lower effective tax rates, with government efforts to standardize tax practices [27]. 3. Increased activity in the capital markets, which has significantly boosted tax revenues from related sectors, with securities industry tax revenue growing over 70% in July and August [31]. Group 3: Fiscal Data Analysis - Public fiscal revenue showed a slight year-on-year decline of 2% in August, with tax revenue continuing to grow for five consecutive months, although foreign trade and real estate-related taxes have increasingly dragged down overall revenue [32][34]. - Infrastructure spending has been under pressure, with a decline of 6.1% in the first eight months of the year, necessitating supplementary financing through quasi-fiscal measures [44][53]. Group 4: Policy Implications - The likelihood of budget adjustments and debt issuance is decreasing, as resilient tax revenue suggests that the actual income gap relative to budget targets may not be significant [5][16]. - The article suggests that quasi-fiscal measures could be a flexible response to current economic conditions, with ample room for such measures to be implemented quickly without waiting for formal budget adjustments [17][18].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - In August, general fiscal revenue increased by 0.3% year-on-year, while fiscal expenditure rose by 6%[2] - Tax revenue growth in July and August exceeded 5%, despite a slowdown in multiple economic indicators[3] Group 2: Tax Revenue Dynamics - The main contributors to tax revenue growth were domestic value-added tax and corporate income tax, which contributed 3.9 and 4.4 percentage points respectively in July and August[3] - Personal income tax contributed 0.9 and 1.1 percentage points to tax revenue growth in July and August[3] Group 3: Policy Implications - The likelihood of budget adjustments and debt issuance in 2023 has decreased, with a potential budget surplus indicated by revenue growth trends[4] - The need for additional debt issuance to cover budget shortfalls is not urgent, given the resilience of tax revenue[4] Group 4: Fiscal Strategy - There is a growing probability of increasing quasi-fiscal measures, as the net financing of policy instruments was only 474.5 billion, the second-lowest in the past decade[4] - Quasi-fiscal measures can be implemented quickly without waiting for legislative approval, providing a timely response to economic conditions[5] Group 5: Economic Factors Influencing Tax Revenue - The widening tax economic scissors gap is attributed to passive tax pressure from declining PPI, with a projected gap exceeding 7 percentage points in 2024[6] - Active tax competition among local governments has led to lower effective tax rates, but recent government policies may reverse this trend[7] Group 6: Capital Market Impact - The capital market's activity has significantly boosted tax revenues, with securities industry tax revenue growing over 70% in July and August[8] - Personal income tax growth reached 9.7% in August, supported by capital market activities, with over 20% of its components linked to market performance[8]

Group 1 - The core phenomenon observed is the divergence between tax revenue growth and nominal GDP growth, with a tax-economic gap reaching 7.6% in 2024 and not significantly narrowing in 2025 [2][10] - The decline in tax revenue is attributed to the fact that 80% of tax revenue is price-related, and during periods of falling PPI, tax revenue decreases more significantly than nominal GDP [2][10] - Four main pathways contributing to tax revenue reduction are identified: energy structure transformation, stabilizing the real estate market, financial cost reduction, and encouraging technological innovation, leading to an estimated total tax revenue reduction of approximately 1.06 trillion yuan, equivalent to 6% of the projected national tax revenue for 2024 [2][10] Group 2 - The energy structure transformation is expected to reduce vehicle purchase tax and consumption tax by approximately 265 billion yuan annually, with significant contributions from the phase-out of taxes on new energy vehicles [3][15][19] - The real estate market stabilization measures are projected to result in a reduction of about 230 billion yuan in transaction-related taxes, primarily from land value-added tax and deed tax [4][27][30] - Financial cost reduction initiatives are estimated to decrease corporate income tax by around 270 billion yuan due to the narrowing interest margins affecting banks' taxable profits [5][37][41] - Encouragement of technological innovation through increased R&D expense deductions is anticipated to lead to a corporate income tax reduction of approximately 540 billion yuan [6][44][45]

Group 1: Tax Revenue Trends - Since 2023, tax revenue growth has significantly lagged behind nominal GDP growth, with a tax-economic gap reaching 7.6% in 2024[2] - In the first five months of 2025, tax revenue growth was -1.6%, while nominal GDP growth was 4.3%[7] - Approximately 80% of tax revenue is price-related, leading to more pronounced declines in tax revenue during periods of falling prices[7] Group 2: Impact of Policy Changes - The transition in energy structure is expected to reduce vehicle purchase tax and consumption tax by approximately 1,300 billion and 1,350 billion respectively[3][21] - Tax reductions from stabilizing the real estate market are estimated at around 2,300 billion, primarily from deed tax and land value-added tax[26] - Financial cost reductions are projected to decrease corporate income tax by about 270 billion due to narrowing bank interest margins[39] Group 3: Encouragement of Innovation - The increase in the R&D expense deduction ratio to 100% is expected to result in a corporate income tax reduction of approximately 5,400 billion[45] - The overall tax revenue reduction from these policy changes is estimated to be around 1.06 trillion, equivalent to 6% of the projected national tax revenue of 17.5 trillion in 2024[7]