文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：高拓 （13705969808） 事项 11月广义财政收入同比-5.2%，10月同比-0.6%；11月广义财政支出同比-1.7%，10月同比-19.1%。 报告摘要 本月，税收收入在高基数上仍同比增长2.8%、7月份以来同比增幅高达6.3%； 明年，我们判断财政收入端有三大逻辑支撑—— 牛市的税收效应、企业反内卷、政 府反内卷 ，或仍将成为财政"跨周期"的重要底气： 一、财政"跨周期"的底气 （一）背景：中央经济工作会议重提"跨周期"，财政部明确对标对表 12 月 12 日，蓝部长表示 " 要对标、对表这次会议的要求，编制好明年的预算盘子，抓好政策的实施，确保党中央的方针政策落地见效 " ；财政部党组会议提出 " 按照中 央经济工作会议部署安排，明年政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应， 加大逆周期和 跨周期 调节力度 ，提升宏观经济治理 效能。 " （二）理解：财政"跨周期"，收入端或是重要的底气来源 不考虑结转结余等沉淀资金， 财政支出=财政收入+债务； 参考中央经济工作 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 财政"跨周期"的底气——11 月财政数据点评 事 项 11 月广义财政收入同比-5.2%，10 月同比-0.6%；11 月广义财政支出同比-1.7%， 10 月同比-19.1%。 主要观点 本月，税收收入在高基数上仍同比增长 2.8%、7 月份以来同比增幅高达 6.3%； 明年，我们判断财政收入端有三大逻辑支撑——牛市的税收效应、企业反内 卷、政府反内卷，或仍将成为财政"跨周期"的重要底气： ❖ 一、财政"跨周期"的底气 （一）背景：中央经济工作会议重提"跨周期"，财政部明确对标对表 12 月 12 日，蓝部长表示 "要对标、对表这次会议的要求，编制好明年的预算 盘子，抓好政策的实施，确保党中央的方针政策落地见效" ；财政部党组会议 提出 "按照中央经济工作会议部署安排，明年政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、 提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度， 提升宏观经济治理效能。" （二）理解：财政"跨周期"，收入端或是重要的底气来源 不考虑结转结余等沉淀资金，财政支出=财政收入+债务； 参考中央经济工作会议的表述，在 "保持" 支出总量的前提下，对债务 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of tax revenue increasing despite a slowdown in economic growth during July and August, attributing this to several non-economic factors affecting tax collection and government revenue [4][12]. Group 1: Tax Revenue Trends - In August, the broad fiscal revenue increased by 0.3% year-on-year, compared to a 3.6% increase in July. Fiscal expenditure in August rose by 6%, down from 12.1% in July [2]. - Tax revenue growth exceeded 5% in both July and August, driven primarily by domestic value-added tax and corporate income tax, which contributed 3.9 and 4.4 percentage points respectively to tax revenue growth [4][15]. Group 2: Non-Economic Factors Influencing Tax Revenue - Three non-economic factors are identified as influencing tax revenue: 1. "Passive tax pressure" from prices leading to corporate recovery from internal competition [20]. 2. "Active tax pressure" from local protectionism resulting in lower effective tax rates, with government efforts to standardize tax practices [27]. 3. Increased activity in the capital markets, which has significantly boosted tax revenues from related sectors, with securities industry tax revenue growing over 70% in July and August [31]. Group 3: Fiscal Data Analysis - Public fiscal revenue showed a slight year-on-year decline of 2% in August, with tax revenue continuing to grow for five consecutive months, although foreign trade and real estate-related taxes have increasingly dragged down overall revenue [32][34]. - Infrastructure spending has been under pressure, with a decline of 6.1% in the first eight months of the year, necessitating supplementary financing through quasi-fiscal measures [44][53]. Group 4: Policy Implications - The likelihood of budget adjustments and debt issuance is decreasing, as resilient tax revenue suggests that the actual income gap relative to budget targets may not be significant [5][16]. - The article suggests that quasi-fiscal measures could be a flexible response to current economic conditions, with ample room for such measures to be implemented quickly without waiting for formal budget adjustments [17][18].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - In August, general fiscal revenue increased by 0.3% year-on-year, while fiscal expenditure rose by 6%[2] - Tax revenue growth in July and August exceeded 5%, despite a slowdown in multiple economic indicators[3] Group 2: Tax Revenue Dynamics - The main contributors to tax revenue growth were domestic value-added tax and corporate income tax, which contributed 3.9 and 4.4 percentage points respectively in July and August[3] - Personal income tax contributed 0.9 and 1.1 percentage points to tax revenue growth in July and August[3] Group 3: Policy Implications - The likelihood of budget adjustments and debt issuance in 2023 has decreased, with a potential budget surplus indicated by revenue growth trends[4] - The need for additional debt issuance to cover budget shortfalls is not urgent, given the resilience of tax revenue[4] Group 4: Fiscal Strategy - There is a growing probability of increasing quasi-fiscal measures, as the net financing of policy instruments was only 474.5 billion, the second-lowest in the past decade[4] - Quasi-fiscal measures can be implemented quickly without waiting for legislative approval, providing a timely response to economic conditions[5] Group 5: Economic Factors Influencing Tax Revenue - The widening tax economic scissors gap is attributed to passive tax pressure from declining PPI, with a projected gap exceeding 7 percentage points in 2024[6] - Active tax competition among local governments has led to lower effective tax rates, but recent government policies may reverse this trend[7] Group 6: Capital Market Impact - The capital market's activity has significantly boosted tax revenues, with securities industry tax revenue growing over 70% in July and August[8] - Personal income tax growth reached 9.7% in August, supported by capital market activities, with over 20% of its components linked to market performance[8]

Group 1 - The core phenomenon observed is the divergence between tax revenue growth and nominal GDP growth, with a tax-economic gap reaching 7.6% in 2024 and not significantly narrowing in 2025 [2][10] - The decline in tax revenue is attributed to the fact that 80% of tax revenue is price-related, and during periods of falling PPI, tax revenue decreases more significantly than nominal GDP [2][10] - Four main pathways contributing to tax revenue reduction are identified: energy structure transformation, stabilizing the real estate market, financial cost reduction, and encouraging technological innovation, leading to an estimated total tax revenue reduction of approximately 1.06 trillion yuan, equivalent to 6% of the projected national tax revenue for 2024 [2][10] Group 2 - The energy structure transformation is expected to reduce vehicle purchase tax and consumption tax by approximately 265 billion yuan annually, with significant contributions from the phase-out of taxes on new energy vehicles [3][15][19] - The real estate market stabilization measures are projected to result in a reduction of about 230 billion yuan in transaction-related taxes, primarily from land value-added tax and deed tax [4][27][30] - Financial cost reduction initiatives are estimated to decrease corporate income tax by around 270 billion yuan due to the narrowing interest margins affecting banks' taxable profits [5][37][41] - Encouragement of technological innovation through increased R&D expense deductions is anticipated to lead to a corporate income tax reduction of approximately 540 billion yuan [6][44][45]

Group 1: Tax Revenue Trends - Since 2023, tax revenue growth has significantly lagged behind nominal GDP growth, with a tax-economic gap reaching 7.6% in 2024[2] - In the first five months of 2025, tax revenue growth was -1.6%, while nominal GDP growth was 4.3%[7] - Approximately 80% of tax revenue is price-related, leading to more pronounced declines in tax revenue during periods of falling prices[7] Group 2: Impact of Policy Changes - The transition in energy structure is expected to reduce vehicle purchase tax and consumption tax by approximately 1,300 billion and 1,350 billion respectively[3][21] - Tax reductions from stabilizing the real estate market are estimated at around 2,300 billion, primarily from deed tax and land value-added tax[26] - Financial cost reductions are projected to decrease corporate income tax by about 270 billion due to narrowing bank interest margins[39] Group 3: Encouragement of Innovation - The increase in the R&D expense deduction ratio to 100% is expected to result in a corporate income tax reduction of approximately 5,400 billion[45] - The overall tax revenue reduction from these policy changes is estimated to be around 1.06 trillion, equivalent to 6% of the projected national tax revenue of 17.5 trillion in 2024[7]