文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 事项 8月广义财政收入同比0.3%，7月同比3.6%；8月广义财政支出同比6%，7月同比12.1%。 报告摘要 联系人：高拓 （13705969808） 一、 现象：7、8月税收逆经济而上 一般认为"经济决定税收，税收反映经济"， 7 、 8 月多项经济数据增速放缓，但税收收入增幅明显回升， 7 、 8 月增幅均超过 5% （未扣除出口退税的税务部门征收口径）。 什么因素导致的？ 从拉动拆分看， 7~8 月税收收入增速的主要贡献来自以国内增值税、企业所得税为代表的 价格相关税 （ 7 、 8 月分别拉动税收收入增速 3.9 、 4.4 个百分点） 和个人所得税 （ 7 、 8 月分别拉动税 收收入增速 0.9 、 1.1 个百分点），除去年同期基数较低以外， 或对应三个非经济因素正在发生变化 —— 企 业反内卷 修复税收经济剪刀差、 政府反内卷 提升实际税率、 资本市场交易活跃 带动相关税收 （详见下 文）。 有什么政策启示？ 目前判断而言， 考虑到准财政空间尚存，年内直接跨过准财政进行预算调整、增发债务尚 没有特 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 税收高增的非经济因素——8 月财政数据点评 事 项 8 月广义财政收入同比 0.3%，7 月同比 3.6%；8 月广义财政支出同比 6%，7 月 同比 12.1%。 主要观点 一、现象：7、8 月税收逆经济而上 一般认为"经济决定税收，税收反映经济"，7、8 月多项经济数据增速放缓， 但税收收入增幅明显回升，7、8 月增幅均超过 5%（未扣除出口退税的税务部 门征收口径）。 什么因素导致的？从拉动拆分看，7~8 月税收收入增速的主要贡献来自以国内 增值税、企业所得税为代表的价格相关税（7、8 月分别拉动税收收入增速 3.9、 4.4 个百分点）和个人所得税（7、8 月分别拉动税收收入增速 0.9、1.1 个百分 点），除去年同期基数较低以外，或对应三个非经济因素正在发生变化——企 业反内卷修复税收经济剪刀差、政府反内卷提升实际税率、资本市场交易活跃 带动相关税收（详见下文）。 有什么政策启示？目前判断而言，考虑到准财政空间尚存，年内直接跨过准财 政进行预算调整、增发债务尚没有特别急切的必要。（2023、2024 连续两年 在 10 月、11 月人大常委会进行预算调整，分别 ...

Group 1 - The core phenomenon observed is the divergence between tax revenue growth and nominal GDP growth, with a tax-economic gap reaching 7.6% in 2024 and not significantly narrowing in 2025 [2][10] - The decline in tax revenue is attributed to the fact that 80% of tax revenue is price-related, and during periods of falling PPI, tax revenue decreases more significantly than nominal GDP [2][10] - Four main pathways contributing to tax revenue reduction are identified: energy structure transformation, stabilizing the real estate market, financial cost reduction, and encouraging technological innovation, leading to an estimated total tax revenue reduction of approximately 1.06 trillion yuan, equivalent to 6% of the projected national tax revenue for 2024 [2][10] Group 2 - The energy structure transformation is expected to reduce vehicle purchase tax and consumption tax by approximately 265 billion yuan annually, with significant contributions from the phase-out of taxes on new energy vehicles [3][15][19] - The real estate market stabilization measures are projected to result in a reduction of about 230 billion yuan in transaction-related taxes, primarily from land value-added tax and deed tax [4][27][30] - Financial cost reduction initiatives are estimated to decrease corporate income tax by around 270 billion yuan due to the narrowing interest margins affecting banks' taxable profits [5][37][41] - Encouragement of technological innovation through increased R&D expense deductions is anticipated to lead to a corporate income tax reduction of approximately 540 billion yuan [6][44][45]

Group 1: Tax Revenue Trends - Since 2023, tax revenue growth has significantly lagged behind nominal GDP growth, with a tax-economic gap reaching 7.6% in 2024[2] - In the first five months of 2025, tax revenue growth was -1.6%, while nominal GDP growth was 4.3%[7] - Approximately 80% of tax revenue is price-related, leading to more pronounced declines in tax revenue during periods of falling prices[7] Group 2: Impact of Policy Changes - The transition in energy structure is expected to reduce vehicle purchase tax and consumption tax by approximately 1,300 billion and 1,350 billion respectively[3][21] - Tax reductions from stabilizing the real estate market are estimated at around 2,300 billion, primarily from deed tax and land value-added tax[26] - Financial cost reductions are projected to decrease corporate income tax by about 270 billion due to narrowing bank interest margins[39] Group 3: Encouragement of Innovation - The increase in the R&D expense deduction ratio to 100% is expected to result in a corporate income tax reduction of approximately 5,400 billion[45] - The overall tax revenue reduction from these policy changes is estimated to be around 1.06 trillion, equivalent to 6% of the projected national tax revenue of 17.5 trillion in 2024[7]