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特朗普和美联储“抬杠”升级,罢免库克打的什么算盘?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-28 07:31
Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between President Trump and the Federal Reserve, particularly regarding the potential dismissal of Governor Lisa Cook, raises concerns about the independence of the Fed and its ability to make data-driven decisions free from political pressure [1][3]. Group 1: Legal and Historical Context - According to the Federal Reserve Act, the President can nominate Fed governors, but the legal protections against their dismissal are stringent, making Trump's threats more of a political maneuver than a feasible legal action [3]. - Historically, no president has successfully dismissed a Fed governor to alter monetary policy, indicating that Trump's actions may be aimed at exerting political pressure rather than achieving actual change [3]. Group 2: Challenges to Fed Independence - Continuous public attacks and threats from Trump could create a "chilling effect" on other Fed officials, leading to hesitance in making necessary but unpopular decisions [5]. - The credibility and trust in the Fed could be undermined if the market perceives its decisions as influenced by political pressures, which would weaken its ability to guide market expectations [5]. - If such pressure tactics are not firmly resisted, it could set a dangerous precedent for future presidents to influence monetary policy through intimidation [5]. Group 3: Implications for Interest Rate Decisions - With slowing job growth, Fed Chair Powell has hinted at potential rate cuts, but high tariffs and budget deficits may keep rates elevated [7]. - Traders anticipate that the Fed may cut rates five times by the end of next year, each by 0.25 percentage points, reflecting market expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy [7]. - The Fed may emphasize its independence in upcoming meetings, potentially adopting a more hawkish tone to counter political interference [7]. Group 4: Market Reactions - The dollar may weaken as any erosion of the Fed's independence could undermine its status as a global reserve currency, raising concerns about a politically influenced Fed maintaining low rates [9]. - Short-term, Trump's pressure could lead to quicker and larger rate cuts, benefiting the stock market, particularly interest-sensitive sectors like technology [9]. - Long-term, rising inflation expectations could drive up long-term bond yields, as investors demand higher returns to compensate for inflation risks [9]. Group 5: Gold Market Dynamics - Short-term, faster rate cuts by the Fed could boost demand for non-yielding gold, especially if inflation risks materialize [12]. - However, if aggressive rate cuts lead to soaring inflation, the Fed may need to raise rates sharply in the future, which could negatively impact gold prices [12]. - Overall, Trump's actions introduce a new "political intervention risk premium" into the market, with short-term benefits from rate cuts potentially overshadowed by long-term risks associated with a compromised central bank [12].