政治施压

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特朗普和美联储“抬杠”升级,罢免库克打的什么算盘?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-28 07:31
Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between President Trump and the Federal Reserve, particularly regarding the potential dismissal of Governor Lisa Cook, raises concerns about the independence of the Fed and its ability to make data-driven decisions free from political pressure [1][3]. Group 1: Legal and Historical Context - According to the Federal Reserve Act, the President can nominate Fed governors, but the legal protections against their dismissal are stringent, making Trump's threats more of a political maneuver than a feasible legal action [3]. - Historically, no president has successfully dismissed a Fed governor to alter monetary policy, indicating that Trump's actions may be aimed at exerting political pressure rather than achieving actual change [3]. Group 2: Challenges to Fed Independence - Continuous public attacks and threats from Trump could create a "chilling effect" on other Fed officials, leading to hesitance in making necessary but unpopular decisions [5]. - The credibility and trust in the Fed could be undermined if the market perceives its decisions as influenced by political pressures, which would weaken its ability to guide market expectations [5]. - If such pressure tactics are not firmly resisted, it could set a dangerous precedent for future presidents to influence monetary policy through intimidation [5]. Group 3: Implications for Interest Rate Decisions - With slowing job growth, Fed Chair Powell has hinted at potential rate cuts, but high tariffs and budget deficits may keep rates elevated [7]. - Traders anticipate that the Fed may cut rates five times by the end of next year, each by 0.25 percentage points, reflecting market expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy [7]. - The Fed may emphasize its independence in upcoming meetings, potentially adopting a more hawkish tone to counter political interference [7]. Group 4: Market Reactions - The dollar may weaken as any erosion of the Fed's independence could undermine its status as a global reserve currency, raising concerns about a politically influenced Fed maintaining low rates [9]. - Short-term, Trump's pressure could lead to quicker and larger rate cuts, benefiting the stock market, particularly interest-sensitive sectors like technology [9]. - Long-term, rising inflation expectations could drive up long-term bond yields, as investors demand higher returns to compensate for inflation risks [9]. Group 5: Gold Market Dynamics - Short-term, faster rate cuts by the Fed could boost demand for non-yielding gold, especially if inflation risks materialize [12]. - However, if aggressive rate cuts lead to soaring inflation, the Fed may need to raise rates sharply in the future, which could negatively impact gold prices [12]. - Overall, Trump's actions introduce a new "political intervention risk premium" into the market, with short-term benefits from rate cuts potentially overshadowed by long-term risks associated with a compromised central bank [12].
2025年7月FOMC点评:美联储近期降息受阻,远期降息空间或被低估
Orient Securities· 2025-08-04 09:11
Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.50%, aligning with market expectations[7] - The decision was not unanimous, with a vote of 9 in favor and 2 against, indicating growing internal divisions within the Fed[7] - The Fed's description of the U.S. economic outlook was slightly downgraded, reflecting concerns over economic activity slowing down[7] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Risks - Inflation risks are currently perceived to be higher than growth risks, complicating the Fed's decision-making process[7] - The market anticipates an 80% probability of a rate cut in September and a 95% probability of cumulative cuts by October, suggesting a significant expectation of easing monetary policy[7] - The report highlights risks of a hard landing for the U.S. economy and a potential rebound in inflation, which could hinder future rate cuts[3] Group 3: Diverging Opinions within the Fed - Three distinct factions have emerged within the Fed regarding interest rate policy: those favoring no cuts, those advocating for delayed cuts, and those pushing for immediate cuts[7] - The internal divisions are primarily driven by differing views on inflation and ongoing political pressures affecting the Fed's independence[7] - The report suggests that the current inflation rebound is largely driven by high import dependence and low inventory levels, while domestic service inflation continues to decline[7]
美媒:特朗普正直接介入94亿美元预算削减案
news flash· 2025-07-14 10:11
美媒:特朗普正直接介入94亿美元预算削减案 金十数据7月14日讯,据美媒Semafor报道,知情人士称,特朗普本周正直接介入这项94亿美元的预算削 减议案,并与参议员们进行直接沟通。一位政府高级官员称,参议员们也在准备应对,如果联邦削减计 划失败,特朗普可能会大发雷霆,而白宫不希望参议院修改这一方案。预算办公室主任沃特在周二的程 序性投票前表示,本周"可能会成为这座城市(指华盛顿)运作方式的一个重大转折点"。此外还存在政 治施压:特朗普正放出信号,表明那些为公共广播公司资金奔走的共和党人将得不到他的支持。 ...