Group 1: Economic Uncertainty Factors - The correlation coefficients for economic uncertainty factors and policy factors across provinces in 2024 are 0.70 and 0.72, respectively, indicating that larger provinces face greater economic uncertainty and policy support[3] - Provinces are categorized into three groups based on the relationship between economic uncertainty factors and policy factors: 14 provinces with higher economic uncertainty than policy support (48% of national GDP), 16 provinces with lower economic uncertainty (48% of national GDP), and Beijing where both factors are approximately equal[3] - Provinces with economic uncertainty factors lower than policy factors show better GDP growth, averaging 5.1%, compared to 4.76% for those with higher uncertainty[3] Group 2: Real Estate Factor - In 2024, the real estate industry chain's contribution to GDP for six major economic provinces is 14.1%, compared to the national average of 13.5%[4] - The land finance dependency for major economic provinces is significantly higher, with an average of 41% compared to the national average of 24.3%[4] - Provinces like Jiangsu, Sichuan, and Shandong have land finance dependency exceeding 40%[4] Group 3: Export Factor - The six major economic provinces account for 65% of national exports, significantly higher than their 44% share of national GDP[5] - The export-to-GDP ratio for eastern coastal provinces is 28.6%, compared to the national average of 18.8% and much lower ratios for western provinces[5] - Provinces such as Zhejiang and Guangdong have export-to-GDP ratios of 43.3% and 41.6%, respectively, indicating a strong reliance on exports[5] Group 4: Policy Factor - The total central government subsidies for 2024 are estimated at 11.3 trillion CNY, with major economic provinces receiving only 23.5% of this, which is lower than their GDP share of 44.4%[8] - The net financing from local debts and credits for major economic provinces is 40.7%, also below their GDP share of 44.4%[9] - The financial resources allocated to major economic provinces have been declining, with their share of social financing dropping from 53% in 2022 to 48% in 2024[9]