国信证券首席经济学家荀玉根研报指出，26年牛市相比25年，不变：政策继续宽松。起于24年924的牛 市类似99年519，通缩不止、政策宽松环境不变；牛市周期未完。借鉴历史上牛熊周期规律，这轮牛市 的时空未到，市场情绪还未极致。变化：基本面修复将由点到面扩散，配合居民资金入市，牛市走向第 二阶段后半场和第三阶段；科技行情望从算力基建向应用扩散，白酒消费、地产等老登资产有重估机 会。 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 宏观研究 外资如何看待 2026 中国经济？ ❖ 前言：本文关注外资对 2026 年中国经济的观点，整体而言，外资认为中国仍 处于新旧动能转换、供需再平衡的过程中，在此背景下，预计 2026 年经济增 速中枢在 4.5%附近（回溯来看外资预测普遍偏低估），通胀温和回升，CPI 转 正，PPI 降幅收窄。 ❖ （一）经济增长：中枢 4.5%左右 一致预期：多数机构认为，2026 年中国实际 GDP 增速 4.5%左右（小摩、德 银、瑞银、OECD、IMF），详见正文。 观点分歧：大摩的预期相对乐观（4.8%），一方面对出口的判断更为积极，预 计 2026 年净出口对 GDP 的贡献在 1.3 个百分点（瑞银为 0.7 个百分点），另一 方面，预计政府消费将有所提速。美银的预期同样乐观（4.7%），主要支撑在 投资，预计增速回升至 3.5%，结构上，基建在 5000 亿新型政策性金融工具+ 政府债扩容背景下维持高增，制造业低个位数增长，地产投资降幅收窄。巴克 莱的预测相对谨慎（4%），认为地产下行与低价风险仍将拖累经济表现。 ❖ （二）通胀：CPI 转正，PPI 降幅收窄 一 ...

今日三大指数弱势震荡，沪指再度失守3900点。市场热点较为散乱，活跃资金抱团炒作高位妖股，3倍 牛股合富中国再度涨停，金富科技斩获7连板，海王生物5连板，道明光学、通宇通讯4连板。市场全天 成交近1.6万亿，较上个交易日缩量近3000亿，两市下跌个股超3700只。 盘面上看，福建本地股再度爆发，平潭发展等多股涨停。消息面上，福建第十五个五年规划的建议发 布。建议提到，加快平潭综合实验区开放发展，推进新一轮全岛封关运作，建设两岸共同市场先行区 域、两岸同胞共同家园等。另外，福建再推12条惠台利民政策措施，包括支持台企台商发展、优化台胞 台企办税服务、推进对台商贸文旅交流合作等。 其他热点方面，商业航天概念局部活跃，航天发展13天9板；算力硬件股尾盘异动，菲菱科思20%涨 停；消费股继续走强，安记食品、惠发食品午后直线涨停；地产、家居板块震荡走强，海鸥住工拉升封 板；传媒、有色金属、人形机器人等板块表现较弱。 从个股看，两市上涨1544家，下跌3740家，171家涨幅持平。两市共55股涨停，共9股跌停。 截至收盘，沪指跌0.42%报3897.71点，成交6275亿元；深成指跌0.68%报13056.70点，成交9 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.66%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 0.87%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.1% during the midday session on October 23 [3] - Nearly 3,900 stocks in the two markets experienced declines, indicating a broad market downturn [3] Sector Performance - CPO and cultivated diamond concepts saw significant pullbacks, while hard technology sectors like storage chips and GPUs continued to adjust [3] - The rare earth, precious metals, and military industry sectors were sluggish, contrasting with a surge in Shenzhen state-owned enterprises and coal stocks, which saw a wave of limit-up trading [3] - The coal futures market experienced a notable increase, with the main contract rising over 4% to 1,246.5 CNY per ton [6] Notable Stocks - Several coal stocks, including Daya Energy and Shanxi Coking Coal, recorded limit-up trading, with Daya Energy achieving 9 consecutive limit-ups [8] - In the Shenzhen state-owned enterprise reform sector, stocks like Jian Kexuan and Shen Saige saw significant gains, with Jian Kexuan rising by 20.02% to 20.74 CNY [15][16] Trading Volume - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 1 trillion CNY, reflecting a decrease of nearly 50 billion CNY compared to the previous day [5] Currency and Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China conducted a 2,125 billion CNY reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40%, while 2,360 billion CNY of reverse repos were set to mature [21]

Core Viewpoint - The public fund issuance market remains robust in October, following a record high in September, with a significant number of new funds planned for subscription, particularly in equity funds and technology sectors [1][6][9]. Fund Issuance Trends - In October, 92 new funds are set to launch, with 54 products concentrated in the week of October 13-17 [1][6]. - Equity funds dominate the issuance, accounting for over 70% of the new products, with a notable focus on passive index funds [3][6][7]. - The new funds are primarily targeting the technology innovation sector and the Hong Kong stock market [4][8]. Product Structure - Among the 92 new funds, 70 are equity funds, including 35 passive index funds, 24 active equity funds, and 11 enhanced index funds [6][7]. - The trend shows a shift towards thematic focus, market diversification, and product segmentation in index funds, moving beyond mainstream indices to niche themes driven by policy [8]. Market Dynamics - The public fund issuance market has shown signs of recovery since June, with increasing numbers of new funds and total issuance volumes [9][10]. - In the first nine months of the year, 1,138 new funds were issued, a 31.87% increase compared to the same period last year, with equity funds making up 72.32% of the total [11][12]. Future Outlook - The fourth quarter is expected to see continued focus on equity funds, with a more diversified product structure including index, enhanced index, and traditional stock funds [12]. - Key themes for future fund issuance may include technology growth, domestic demand, and traditional manufacturing, although uncertainties in macroeconomic data and international politics could impact issuance volumes [12].

Market Overview - The US Q2 GDP data was revised upward to an annualized quarter-on-quarter growth of 3.3%, driven by a significant increase in business investment from 1.9% to 5.7% [11] - Initial jobless claims in the US decreased slightly to 229,000, with continuing claims falling to 1.954 million, both below expectations [12] - The S&P 500 index reached a new high, surpassing 6500 points, with technology stocks leading the gains, particularly Snowflake which surged by 20% [2] - The offshore RMB hit a new high for the year, rising to 7.1188, while the dollar index fell for three consecutive days [2] Company Performance - Semiconductor companies showed varied performance: - SMIC reported a 22% year-on-year revenue increase, with net profit up 35.6% [15] - Hua Hong Semiconductor's revenue grew by 19.09%, but net profit plummeted by 71.95% due to high R&D costs [16] - Zhongwei Company saw a 43.9% revenue increase and a 36.6% rise in net profit, with etching equipment sales up 40.1% [6] - North Huachuang's revenue and net profit both grew by double digits, but cash outflow from operating activities expanded by about nine times [17] - Changxin Bochuang's revenue surged by 59.5%, with net profit increasing over 11 times, driven by AI data center demand [17] Industry Trends - The EU is pushing for a trade agreement with the US, proposing to eliminate some tariffs on US industrial goods and reduce auto tariffs to 15% [13] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a boom, with companies like Nvidia and others in the AI infrastructure space being highlighted as strong investment opportunities [22] - The Chinese government is focusing on developing modern urban clusters and promoting the renovation of old urban communities, which may impact real estate and construction sectors positively [10][36]

Market Performance - The ChiNext Index fell over 1% [2] - The STAR Market 50 Index dropped more than 2%, with leading declines from companies like Chipone Technology, Cambricon Technologies, and Haiguang Information [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index decreased by 1%, while the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.60% [3] Sector Performance - The satellite navigation sector showed active performance, with companies like Kaipu Cloud and Shaanxi Huada reaching a 20% limit up, while China Satellite and Changjiang Communication opened high [4] - A-shares opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.31%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.34%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.57%. AI hardware and liquid cooling sectors experienced significant declines, while real estate and steel sectors saw gains [5] Stock Listings - Double One Holdings debuted on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with a high opening, increasing over 55% [7] Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 405.8 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of 174.5 billion yuan for the day [10] Currency Exchange - The central bank set the RMB/USD middle rate at 7.1188, depreciating by 27 basis points from the previous trading day [11]

Report Information - Report Title: Export Throughput Maintains Resilience, Price Trends Diverge [1] - Report Date: August 25, 2025 - Analysts: Zhang Jiqiang, Wu Jing, Wu Yuhang - Contact: Li Zihao Core Viewpoints - In the third week of August, external demand showed high throughput year-on-year, but freight rates were weak with a widening decline. The real estate market had mixed performance in transactions, with new and second-hand housing sales continuing to decline year-on-year, and housing prices yet to stabilize. On the production side, the industrial freight volume was good, coal prices rose, and production maintained a differentiated resilience. In the construction industry, cement supply and demand improved marginally, while black metal supply and demand were weak. In the consumption sector, travel remained resilient, and automobile consumption increased slightly. Prices of crude oil were significantly affected by external factors, and the fundamentals restricted black metal prices, while Powell's dovish signals supported copper prices [2]. Summary by Category Consumption - Travel maintained a high level, with increases in subway ridership, congestion delay index, and flight operation rates similar to the previous year. Automobile consumption increased slightly, textile consumption recovered, and express delivery pick-up volume remained high [3]. Real Estate - Real estate transactions were differentiated. New housing transactions were basically flat, with second-tier cities leading. Second-hand housing transactions recovered, especially in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Chengdu. The listing price and quantity of second-hand housing both decreased, and the land premium rate increased while land transactions decreased [4][6]. Production - Freight volume remained high, and the data of operating rates were differentiated. In the power sector, coal consumption increased, hydropower decreased, and coal prices rose. In the construction industry, the funds in place increased year-on-year, cement supply and demand improved, black metal supply and demand declined, and asphalt operating rates decreased [5][13][14]. External Demand - Port throughput remained high, but freight rates declined. The cumulative cargo throughput and container throughput of ports were at a high level. The RJ/CRB index increased year-on-year, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) decreased, and international route freight rates weakened. South Korea's exports in the first 20 days of August increased by 7.62% year-on-year, and Vietnam's exports in the first half of August increased by 15.56% year-on-year [5]. Prices - The prices of agricultural products, crude oil, and cement increased, while the prices of black metals were differentiated, and the prices of non-ferrous metals and glass decreased. The increase in crude oil prices was due to geopolitical risks and increased demand, while the differentiation of black metal prices was affected by supply and demand and policies [20][21].

Economic Overview - The GDP growth rate for Q2 has slightly decreased from 5.4% in Q1 to 5.2%, indicating a stable yet high economic performance [1] - Nominal GDP growth has dropped from 4.6% in Q1 to 3.9% in Q2, reflecting weaker price levels [1] Investment and Consumption Trends - Fixed asset investment growth fell to -0.1% in June from 2.7% in May, with declines in infrastructure and manufacturing investments [2] - Real estate investment growth decreased by 12.9% year-on-year in June, while real estate sales area also saw a decline of 5.5% [2] - Retail sales growth for the first half of the year was around 5%, but June saw a drop to 4.8% from 6.4% in May, partly due to earlier consumption during the "618" shopping festival [2] Trade Performance - Export growth in June was strong at 5.8% year-on-year, surpassing expectations, while imports grew by 1.1% [3] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs, particularly from the U.S., may impact future export performance [3][4] U.S. Economic Impact - The U.S. experienced significant inventory accumulation in the first half of the year, which could lead to reduced import demand if domestic consumption weakens [4] - If U.S. consumer demand does not keep pace with import growth, it may result in inventory buildup and subsequent import declines [4] Policy and Economic Projections - The GDP growth target for the year remains at 5%, with a potential slowdown in the second half projected at around 4.7% [4] - The likelihood of strong policy stimulus in the second half is considered low, suggesting a more challenging economic environment [5] Investment Recommendations - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) is highlighted as a favorable investment option due to its low fees and higher coupon rates compared to shorter-duration bonds [5]

Group 1: Economic Uncertainty Factors - The correlation coefficients for economic uncertainty factors and policy factors across provinces in 2024 are 0.70 and 0.72, respectively, indicating that larger provinces face greater economic uncertainty and policy support[3] - Provinces are categorized into three groups based on the relationship between economic uncertainty factors and policy factors: 14 provinces with higher economic uncertainty than policy support (48% of national GDP), 16 provinces with lower economic uncertainty (48% of national GDP), and Beijing where both factors are approximately equal[3] - Provinces with economic uncertainty factors lower than policy factors show better GDP growth, averaging 5.1%, compared to 4.76% for those with higher uncertainty[3] Group 2: Real Estate Factor - In 2024, the real estate industry chain's contribution to GDP for six major economic provinces is 14.1%, compared to the national average of 13.5%[4] - The land finance dependency for major economic provinces is significantly higher, with an average of 41% compared to the national average of 24.3%[4] - Provinces like Jiangsu, Sichuan, and Shandong have land finance dependency exceeding 40%[4] Group 3: Export Factor - The six major economic provinces account for 65% of national exports, significantly higher than their 44% share of national GDP[5] - The export-to-GDP ratio for eastern coastal provinces is 28.6%, compared to the national average of 18.8% and much lower ratios for western provinces[5] - Provinces such as Zhejiang and Guangdong have export-to-GDP ratios of 43.3% and 41.6%, respectively, indicating a strong reliance on exports[5] Group 4: Policy Factor - The total central government subsidies for 2024 are estimated at 11.3 trillion CNY, with major economic provinces receiving only 23.5% of this, which is lower than their GDP share of 44.4%[8] - The net financing from local debts and credits for major economic provinces is 40.7%, also below their GDP share of 44.4%[9] - The financial resources allocated to major economic provinces have been declining, with their share of social financing dropping from 53% in 2022 to 48% in 2024[9]