出口吞吐维持韧性，价格走势分化 华泰研究 2025 年 8 月 25 日│中国内地 张继强 研究员 SAC No. S0570518110002 SFC No. AMB145 zhangjiqiang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 吴靖*，PhD 研究员 SAC No. S0570523070006 wujing018437@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 证券研究报告 固收视角 吴宇航* 研究员 SAC No. S0570521090004 wuyuhang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 李梓豪* 联系人 SAC No. S0570124060040 lizihao@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 高频数据核心观点 8 月第三周，外需方面，吞吐量同比维持高位，但运价整体偏弱运行，且跌幅有所走阔。地产方面，新房成交基本持 平，二手房热度有所回落，两者同比延续负增，销售中枢不及前期，房价有待企稳，土地溢价率有所上行。生产端来 看，工业方面，货运量表现较好，煤炭价格继续上涨，生产维持韧性分化，焦化、地炼略有上行，纺 ...

Economic Overview - The GDP growth rate for Q2 has slightly decreased from 5.4% in Q1 to 5.2%, indicating a stable yet high economic performance [1] - Nominal GDP growth has dropped from 4.6% in Q1 to 3.9% in Q2, reflecting weaker price levels [1] Investment and Consumption Trends - Fixed asset investment growth fell to -0.1% in June from 2.7% in May, with declines in infrastructure and manufacturing investments [2] - Real estate investment growth decreased by 12.9% year-on-year in June, while real estate sales area also saw a decline of 5.5% [2] - Retail sales growth for the first half of the year was around 5%, but June saw a drop to 4.8% from 6.4% in May, partly due to earlier consumption during the "618" shopping festival [2] Trade Performance - Export growth in June was strong at 5.8% year-on-year, surpassing expectations, while imports grew by 1.1% [3] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs, particularly from the U.S., may impact future export performance [3][4] U.S. Economic Impact - The U.S. experienced significant inventory accumulation in the first half of the year, which could lead to reduced import demand if domestic consumption weakens [4] - If U.S. consumer demand does not keep pace with import growth, it may result in inventory buildup and subsequent import declines [4] Policy and Economic Projections - The GDP growth target for the year remains at 5%, with a potential slowdown in the second half projected at around 4.7% [4] - The likelihood of strong policy stimulus in the second half is considered low, suggesting a more challenging economic environment [5] Investment Recommendations - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) is highlighted as a favorable investment option due to its low fees and higher coupon rates compared to shorter-duration bonds [5]

Group 1: Economic Uncertainty Factors - The correlation coefficients for economic uncertainty factors and policy factors across provinces in 2024 are 0.70 and 0.72, respectively, indicating that larger provinces face greater economic uncertainty and policy support[3] - Provinces are categorized into three groups based on the relationship between economic uncertainty factors and policy factors: 14 provinces with higher economic uncertainty than policy support (48% of national GDP), 16 provinces with lower economic uncertainty (48% of national GDP), and Beijing where both factors are approximately equal[3] - Provinces with economic uncertainty factors lower than policy factors show better GDP growth, averaging 5.1%, compared to 4.76% for those with higher uncertainty[3] Group 2: Real Estate Factor - In 2024, the real estate industry chain's contribution to GDP for six major economic provinces is 14.1%, compared to the national average of 13.5%[4] - The land finance dependency for major economic provinces is significantly higher, with an average of 41% compared to the national average of 24.3%[4] - Provinces like Jiangsu, Sichuan, and Shandong have land finance dependency exceeding 40%[4] Group 3: Export Factor - The six major economic provinces account for 65% of national exports, significantly higher than their 44% share of national GDP[5] - The export-to-GDP ratio for eastern coastal provinces is 28.6%, compared to the national average of 18.8% and much lower ratios for western provinces[5] - Provinces such as Zhejiang and Guangdong have export-to-GDP ratios of 43.3% and 41.6%, respectively, indicating a strong reliance on exports[5] Group 4: Policy Factor - The total central government subsidies for 2024 are estimated at 11.3 trillion CNY, with major economic provinces receiving only 23.5% of this, which is lower than their GDP share of 44.4%[8] - The net financing from local debts and credits for major economic provinces is 40.7%, also below their GDP share of 44.4%[9] - The financial resources allocated to major economic provinces have been declining, with their share of social financing dropping from 53% in 2022 to 48% in 2024[9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Policy has limited short - term impact on the market. For stock index futures, the Lujiazui Forum focuses on new stocks on the Sci - tech Innovation Board, and policies are difficult to accelerate the recovery. For stock index options, the market is resilient, and short - term sentiment is positive. For treasury bond futures, the bond market shows a differentiated trend [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The Lujiazui Forum introduced "1 + 6" policy measures to deepen the reform of the Sci - tech Innovation Board, which may lower the listing threshold for high - quality enterprises, accelerate the listing process, and increase the number of new stocks. However, the expected policy tools in the order of tens of billions did not appear, and there is no substantial policy to improve industrial profit distribution. The market lacks a clear long - term main line, and operations should be defensive. The IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts' basis, spreads, and positions changed. It is recommended to wait and see [2][7]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - Most underlying assets showed a trend of falling first and then rising. The overall trading volume of the option market increased slightly, with the main increase in 500ETF options and 300 - related varieties. Most varieties had a slight increase in volatility. The buying option strategy performed well in the morning. Sentiment indicators suggest that both buyers and sellers are short - term optimistic. It is recommended to deploy long - volatility strategies and short - term bullish spread strategies on dips, and be cautious with short - volatility strategies [3][8]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures closed with a differentiated performance. The central bank's open - market operations slightly withdrew liquidity, but the DR001 rate remained low, and the short - end was favored. The expected loose monetary policy did not materialize, which was negative for the bond market. The central bank still cares about the capital market, and large banks are continuously buying short - term bonds, which is beneficial for the short - end. The long - end 10Y treasury bond rate is close to the previous low, and there may be limited downward momentum in the short term. It is recommended to be cautious in trend strategies, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels, appropriately focus on basis widening, and the mid - term strategy of steepening the yield curve has higher odds [4][9]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic calendar shows data on fixed - asset investment, social consumer goods retail sales, industrial added value, unemployment rates, and other indicators in China, the United States, the eurozone, and Japan from June 16 - 20, 2025, including previous values, predicted values, and published values [10]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman Wu Qing announced to deepen the reform of the Sci - tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market to build a more attractive and competitive market system. People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng announced pilot structural monetary policy tool innovations in Shanghai [11]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions monitoring data for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not provided in the given content.

Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for May 2025 is at 49.5%, a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points, indicating a slight recovery but still in the contraction zone[1] - The new orders index for May is at 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, while the new export orders index increased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5%, highlighting external demand's contribution to manufacturing recovery[1][5] - The production index rose to 50.7%, a month-on-month increase of 0.9 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone[1][5] Supply Chain and Inventory - The raw materials inventory index is at 47.4%, up 0.4 percentage points, while the finished goods inventory index decreased to 46.5%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating inventory adjustments in response to demand changes[1][5] - The supplier delivery time index is at 50.0%, down 0.2 percentage points, suggesting stable delivery times despite the overall supply chain pressures[1][5] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 50.9%, remaining in the expansion zone for four consecutive months, with significant growth in computer and communication equipment exports, where the export orders index exceeded 10% growth[2][9] - The electrical machinery and specialized equipment sectors saw export order indices increase by over 10% in May, indicating strong external demand recovery[2][9] Risks and Outlook - There are concerns regarding the potential for increased recession risks in major overseas economies and heightened geopolitical uncertainties[3][17]

Core Viewpoint - The April economic data indicates a mixed performance in China's economy, with strong industrial production and consumption, but a decline in investment and real estate sectors [1][13]. Demand Side - April's external demand faced challenges due to reciprocal tariffs, leading to a significant drop in exports to the US; however, transshipment trade helped maintain export resilience [1][2]. - Internal demand showed a decline in both investment and consumption, although consumption remained at a high level; investment was dragged down by the real estate and manufacturing sectors [1][7]. Production Side - Industrial production maintained a high level, with April's industrial value-added growth rate dropping to 6.1%, supported by equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing [3][5]. - The service sector's production index slightly decreased, but still benefited from low base effects and consumption recovery [3]. Investment Trends - National fixed asset investment growth rate fell by 0.8 percentage points to 3.5%, with real estate investment continuing to decline significantly [7]. - High-tech industry investments performed well, particularly in information services and computer manufacturing, with year-on-year growth rates of 40.6% and 28.9% respectively [7]. Consumption Patterns - Retail sales growth rate decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 5.1%, while service retail sales showed an upward trend, particularly in tourism-related sectors [9]. - Essential consumer goods saw a decline in growth, while sectors benefiting from trade-in programs performed strongly [9]. Real Estate Market - Real estate sales area growth rate worsened to -2.1%, with new construction area also declining significantly [11]. - Despite the drop in sales volume, housing prices continued to rise, with the decline in new and second-hand housing prices narrowing [11]. Employment and External Factors - The unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1%, indicating a steady employment situation despite external challenges [13]. - Future export performance may exceed expectations due to potential European recovery, although this could lead to a more cautious domestic policy response [13].

Group 1 - The market experienced a high opening followed by a decline, with the military and chemical sectors leading the gains, indicating accelerated rotation of themes [1][2][3] - The major indices showed a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.8% to 3342 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index increased by 0.22% and 0.51% respectively [1] - The total trading volume reached 1.47 trillion, an increase of 132.1 billion from the previous day, reflecting heightened market activity and intensified capital competition [1] Group 2 - The military sector saw significant gains due to the escalation of the India-Pakistan conflict and the accelerated commercialization of the domestic C919 aircraft, with stocks like Chenxi Aviation hitting the daily limit [2] - The chemical sector reached new highs, driven by price increase expectations for titanium dioxide and fertilizers, along with improved performance and sustained institutional inflows [3][4] - Other sectors such as robotics and new materials also showed strong performance, with stocks like Quanzhi Co. and Zhongxin Fluorine Material gaining attention [5][6] Group 3 - There was a noticeable decline in AI-related stocks, with concepts like Kimi and Nvidia experiencing significant drops, indicating a shift in market focus [7][8] - The overall sentiment in the market showed a preference for trending stocks, with notable interest in stocks that have shown consecutive gains [9] - The technology sector faced challenges, with the market reacting negatively to financial policies aimed at stabilizing expectations, leading to a mixed performance in tech stocks [11][12]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed a slight pullback after a strong opening, with the Sci-Tech Chip Index rising by 0.38%, driven by significant gains in stocks like Yuanjie Technology, which increased by over 7% [1] - The Sci-Tech Chip ETF (588200) also saw a rise of 0.38%, with a trading volume exceeding 700 million yuan and a turnover rate of nearly 3%, indicating active trading and a slight premium in the market [1][2] - There was a net inflow of over 310 million yuan into the Sci-Tech Chip ETF (588200) the previous day, reflecting strong investor interest in semiconductor-related stocks [2] Group 2 - The Financial Regulatory Administration announced eight new policies aimed at increasing market liquidity, including measures to support small and private enterprises, and enhance investment in technology companies [2] - According to Everbright Securities, the A-share market is expected to trend upwards due to ongoing policy support and the inflow of medium to long-term funds, with current valuations near the average since 2010 [3] - Guosheng Securities highlighted that the focus for May should be on sectors with independent industrial trends, such as domestic AI, smart vehicles, and robotics, while also considering policies related to domestic consumption and real estate [3]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it implies a positive outlook for long-term assets and growth-oriented investments [10][11]. Core Insights - Recent long-term interest rates have returned to levels seen before last year's Central Economic Work Conference, indicating a shift in market sentiment. The stock market is experiencing a style switch, while commodities continue to show a mixed performance [2]. - The report identifies several core factors influencing the current economic landscape, highlighting both favorable conditions and uncertainties that investors should consider [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Broad Fiscal Policy - Favorable Conditions: The broad fiscal expansion this year is significant, with a budgeted expenditure growth rate of 9.3%, which is much higher than nominal growth. The broad deficit increase is expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan, potentially boosting GDP by about 1% [3]. - Uncertainties: The actual completion of fiscal policies remains uncertain, as past years have seen fiscal progress fall short of expectations. Key factors to monitor include the transition from heavy tax industries to subsidy-based sectors, cyclical characteristics of economic variables, and uncertainties in the real estate sector [3]. 2. Price Factors - Favorable Factors: The narrowing supply-demand gap is viewed positively, with efforts to address structural issues in key industries. Demand is expected to be supported by fiscal measures, consumption, and real estate [4]. - Unfavorable Factors: The base effect from last year's low prices and the recent low inflation factors may negatively impact year-on-year inflation readings, particularly in Q3. Additionally, long-term trends such as AI's impact on productivity may exert downward pressure on inflation expectations [4]. 3. Real Estate - Favorable Conditions: Stabilization in sales and improved funding for inventory reduction suggest a more positive outlook for inventory de-stocking in the real estate sector [5]. - Uncertainties: There are still divergences in expectations regarding household income, and the stabilization path for real estate requires certain conditions to be met, including timely policy adjustments and price elasticity [6]. 4. Exports - Favorable Conditions: Export companies have strategically diversified their markets, which helps mitigate external risks [7]. - Uncertainties: There are significant uncertainties related to the recent cooling of the U.S. economy and tariff uncertainties, which could impact export performance [8]. 5. Internal Momentum - Favorable Conditions: Improvements in expectations and confidence, along with AI-driven capital expenditures, are seen as positive for internal economic momentum. Policies aimed at boosting consumption and income for lower-income groups are also beneficial [9]. - Uncertainties: The transmission of internal momentum relies on the stabilization of the real estate market and fiscal spending, which may take time to materialize [9]. 6. Market Outlook - The current market expectations can be summarized as a slight improvement in long-term concerns, a clearer path to economic stabilization, and the need for certain preconditions to be met. Short-term data may still show divergence, but more positive signals are emerging [10]. - Long-duration assets are expected to outperform short-duration assets, and growth-oriented assets are favored over inflation-sensitive ones in the near term [10].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.17%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.77%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.02% on March 6, 2025. The total trading volume reached 1.91 trillion yuan, an increase of 412.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][4]. Sector Performance - AI agents, IT services, gaming, and computing power leasing sectors saw significant gains, while engineering machinery, steel, banking, and oil & gas sectors experienced declines [1][4]. A-share Market Outlook - According to Everbright Securities, the A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend, driven by a rebound in technology stocks, which has boosted market sentiment and confidence. The focus is likely to return to technology growth styles [6]. - CITIC Securities noted that with external disturbances stabilizing, the spring market is expected to continue, with technology growth sectors remaining the main focus. Key areas to watch include domestic computing power, consumer electronics, automotive intelligence, military industry, service consumption, real estate, and steel [7]. AI Agent Development - The AI agent concept surged on March 6, with stocks like Newcapec, Hand Information, and Dingjie Smart reaching their daily limit [9]. - The launch of Manus, the world's first general-purpose AI agent product, marks a significant advancement in AI capabilities. Manus can handle complex tasks autonomously, outperforming similar models from OpenAI [10]. - The AI agent market is projected to grow from $5.1 billion in 2024 to $47.1 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 44.8% [13]. Government Support for Technology Innovation - The People's Bank of China emphasized the importance of monetary policy adjustments to support economic growth and market confidence, indicating potential for further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates [16]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) highlighted its commitment to supporting technology innovation through reforms in the STAR Market and ChiNext, aiming to enhance the capital market's support for high-tech enterprises [17]. - The National Development and Reform Commission announced the establishment of a national venture capital guidance fund focused on cutting-edge fields such as AI and quantum technology [19].