Market Overview - The US Q2 GDP data was revised upward to an annualized quarter-on-quarter growth of 3.3%, driven by a significant increase in business investment from 1.9% to 5.7% [11] - Initial jobless claims in the US decreased slightly to 229,000, with continuing claims falling to 1.954 million, both below expectations [12] - The S&P 500 index reached a new high, surpassing 6500 points, with technology stocks leading the gains, particularly Snowflake which surged by 20% [2] - The offshore RMB hit a new high for the year, rising to 7.1188, while the dollar index fell for three consecutive days [2] Company Performance - Semiconductor companies showed varied performance: - SMIC reported a 22% year-on-year revenue increase, with net profit up 35.6% [15] - Hua Hong Semiconductor's revenue grew by 19.09%, but net profit plummeted by 71.95% due to high R&D costs [16] - Zhongwei Company saw a 43.9% revenue increase and a 36.6% rise in net profit, with etching equipment sales up 40.1% [6] - North Huachuang's revenue and net profit both grew by double digits, but cash outflow from operating activities expanded by about nine times [17] - Changxin Bochuang's revenue surged by 59.5%, with net profit increasing over 11 times, driven by AI data center demand [17] Industry Trends - The EU is pushing for a trade agreement with the US, proposing to eliminate some tariffs on US industrial goods and reduce auto tariffs to 15% [13] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a boom, with companies like Nvidia and others in the AI infrastructure space being highlighted as strong investment opportunities [22] - The Chinese government is focusing on developing modern urban clusters and promoting the renovation of old urban communities, which may impact real estate and construction sectors positively [10][36]

Market Performance - The ChiNext Index fell over 1% [2] - The STAR Market 50 Index dropped more than 2%, with leading declines from companies like Chipone Technology, Cambricon Technologies, and Haiguang Information [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index decreased by 1%, while the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.60% [3] Sector Performance - The satellite navigation sector showed active performance, with companies like Kaipu Cloud and Shaanxi Huada reaching a 20% limit up, while China Satellite and Changjiang Communication opened high [4] - A-shares opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.31%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.34%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.57%. AI hardware and liquid cooling sectors experienced significant declines, while real estate and steel sectors saw gains [5] Stock Listings - Double One Holdings debuted on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with a high opening, increasing over 55% [7] Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 405.8 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of 174.5 billion yuan for the day [10] Currency Exchange - The central bank set the RMB/USD middle rate at 7.1188, depreciating by 27 basis points from the previous trading day [11]

Report Information - Report Title: Export Throughput Maintains Resilience, Price Trends Diverge [1] - Report Date: August 25, 2025 - Analysts: Zhang Jiqiang, Wu Jing, Wu Yuhang - Contact: Li Zihao Core Viewpoints - In the third week of August, external demand showed high throughput year-on-year, but freight rates were weak with a widening decline. The real estate market had mixed performance in transactions, with new and second-hand housing sales continuing to decline year-on-year, and housing prices yet to stabilize. On the production side, the industrial freight volume was good, coal prices rose, and production maintained a differentiated resilience. In the construction industry, cement supply and demand improved marginally, while black metal supply and demand were weak. In the consumption sector, travel remained resilient, and automobile consumption increased slightly. Prices of crude oil were significantly affected by external factors, and the fundamentals restricted black metal prices, while Powell's dovish signals supported copper prices [2]. Summary by Category Consumption - Travel maintained a high level, with increases in subway ridership, congestion delay index, and flight operation rates similar to the previous year. Automobile consumption increased slightly, textile consumption recovered, and express delivery pick-up volume remained high [3]. Real Estate - Real estate transactions were differentiated. New housing transactions were basically flat, with second-tier cities leading. Second-hand housing transactions recovered, especially in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Chengdu. The listing price and quantity of second-hand housing both decreased, and the land premium rate increased while land transactions decreased [4][6]. Production - Freight volume remained high, and the data of operating rates were differentiated. In the power sector, coal consumption increased, hydropower decreased, and coal prices rose. In the construction industry, the funds in place increased year-on-year, cement supply and demand improved, black metal supply and demand declined, and asphalt operating rates decreased [5][13][14]. External Demand - Port throughput remained high, but freight rates declined. The cumulative cargo throughput and container throughput of ports were at a high level. The RJ/CRB index increased year-on-year, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) decreased, and international route freight rates weakened. South Korea's exports in the first 20 days of August increased by 7.62% year-on-year, and Vietnam's exports in the first half of August increased by 15.56% year-on-year [5]. Prices - The prices of agricultural products, crude oil, and cement increased, while the prices of black metals were differentiated, and the prices of non-ferrous metals and glass decreased. The increase in crude oil prices was due to geopolitical risks and increased demand, while the differentiation of black metal prices was affected by supply and demand and policies [20][21].

Economic Overview - The GDP growth rate for Q2 has slightly decreased from 5.4% in Q1 to 5.2%, indicating a stable yet high economic performance [1] - Nominal GDP growth has dropped from 4.6% in Q1 to 3.9% in Q2, reflecting weaker price levels [1] Investment and Consumption Trends - Fixed asset investment growth fell to -0.1% in June from 2.7% in May, with declines in infrastructure and manufacturing investments [2] - Real estate investment growth decreased by 12.9% year-on-year in June, while real estate sales area also saw a decline of 5.5% [2] - Retail sales growth for the first half of the year was around 5%, but June saw a drop to 4.8% from 6.4% in May, partly due to earlier consumption during the "618" shopping festival [2] Trade Performance - Export growth in June was strong at 5.8% year-on-year, surpassing expectations, while imports grew by 1.1% [3] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs, particularly from the U.S., may impact future export performance [3][4] U.S. Economic Impact - The U.S. experienced significant inventory accumulation in the first half of the year, which could lead to reduced import demand if domestic consumption weakens [4] - If U.S. consumer demand does not keep pace with import growth, it may result in inventory buildup and subsequent import declines [4] Policy and Economic Projections - The GDP growth target for the year remains at 5%, with a potential slowdown in the second half projected at around 4.7% [4] - The likelihood of strong policy stimulus in the second half is considered low, suggesting a more challenging economic environment [5] Investment Recommendations - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) is highlighted as a favorable investment option due to its low fees and higher coupon rates compared to shorter-duration bonds [5]

Group 1: Economic Uncertainty Factors - The correlation coefficients for economic uncertainty factors and policy factors across provinces in 2024 are 0.70 and 0.72, respectively, indicating that larger provinces face greater economic uncertainty and policy support[3] - Provinces are categorized into three groups based on the relationship between economic uncertainty factors and policy factors: 14 provinces with higher economic uncertainty than policy support (48% of national GDP), 16 provinces with lower economic uncertainty (48% of national GDP), and Beijing where both factors are approximately equal[3] - Provinces with economic uncertainty factors lower than policy factors show better GDP growth, averaging 5.1%, compared to 4.76% for those with higher uncertainty[3] Group 2: Real Estate Factor - In 2024, the real estate industry chain's contribution to GDP for six major economic provinces is 14.1%, compared to the national average of 13.5%[4] - The land finance dependency for major economic provinces is significantly higher, with an average of 41% compared to the national average of 24.3%[4] - Provinces like Jiangsu, Sichuan, and Shandong have land finance dependency exceeding 40%[4] Group 3: Export Factor - The six major economic provinces account for 65% of national exports, significantly higher than their 44% share of national GDP[5] - The export-to-GDP ratio for eastern coastal provinces is 28.6%, compared to the national average of 18.8% and much lower ratios for western provinces[5] - Provinces such as Zhejiang and Guangdong have export-to-GDP ratios of 43.3% and 41.6%, respectively, indicating a strong reliance on exports[5] Group 4: Policy Factor - The total central government subsidies for 2024 are estimated at 11.3 trillion CNY, with major economic provinces receiving only 23.5% of this, which is lower than their GDP share of 44.4%[8] - The net financing from local debts and credits for major economic provinces is 40.7%, also below their GDP share of 44.4%[9] - The financial resources allocated to major economic provinces have been declining, with their share of social financing dropping from 53% in 2022 to 48% in 2024[9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Policy has limited short - term impact on the market. For stock index futures, the Lujiazui Forum focuses on new stocks on the Sci - tech Innovation Board, and policies are difficult to accelerate the recovery. For stock index options, the market is resilient, and short - term sentiment is positive. For treasury bond futures, the bond market shows a differentiated trend [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The Lujiazui Forum introduced "1 + 6" policy measures to deepen the reform of the Sci - tech Innovation Board, which may lower the listing threshold for high - quality enterprises, accelerate the listing process, and increase the number of new stocks. However, the expected policy tools in the order of tens of billions did not appear, and there is no substantial policy to improve industrial profit distribution. The market lacks a clear long - term main line, and operations should be defensive. The IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts' basis, spreads, and positions changed. It is recommended to wait and see [2][7]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - Most underlying assets showed a trend of falling first and then rising. The overall trading volume of the option market increased slightly, with the main increase in 500ETF options and 300 - related varieties. Most varieties had a slight increase in volatility. The buying option strategy performed well in the morning. Sentiment indicators suggest that both buyers and sellers are short - term optimistic. It is recommended to deploy long - volatility strategies and short - term bullish spread strategies on dips, and be cautious with short - volatility strategies [3][8]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures closed with a differentiated performance. The central bank's open - market operations slightly withdrew liquidity, but the DR001 rate remained low, and the short - end was favored. The expected loose monetary policy did not materialize, which was negative for the bond market. The central bank still cares about the capital market, and large banks are continuously buying short - term bonds, which is beneficial for the short - end. The long - end 10Y treasury bond rate is close to the previous low, and there may be limited downward momentum in the short term. It is recommended to be cautious in trend strategies, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels, appropriately focus on basis widening, and the mid - term strategy of steepening the yield curve has higher odds [4][9]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic calendar shows data on fixed - asset investment, social consumer goods retail sales, industrial added value, unemployment rates, and other indicators in China, the United States, the eurozone, and Japan from June 16 - 20, 2025, including previous values, predicted values, and published values [10]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman Wu Qing announced to deepen the reform of the Sci - tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market to build a more attractive and competitive market system. People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng announced pilot structural monetary policy tool innovations in Shanghai [11]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions monitoring data for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not provided in the given content.

Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for May 2025 is at 49.5%, a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points, indicating a slight recovery but still in the contraction zone[1] - The new orders index for May is at 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, while the new export orders index increased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5%, highlighting external demand's contribution to manufacturing recovery[1][5] - The production index rose to 50.7%, a month-on-month increase of 0.9 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone[1][5] Supply Chain and Inventory - The raw materials inventory index is at 47.4%, up 0.4 percentage points, while the finished goods inventory index decreased to 46.5%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating inventory adjustments in response to demand changes[1][5] - The supplier delivery time index is at 50.0%, down 0.2 percentage points, suggesting stable delivery times despite the overall supply chain pressures[1][5] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 50.9%, remaining in the expansion zone for four consecutive months, with significant growth in computer and communication equipment exports, where the export orders index exceeded 10% growth[2][9] - The electrical machinery and specialized equipment sectors saw export order indices increase by over 10% in May, indicating strong external demand recovery[2][9] Risks and Outlook - There are concerns regarding the potential for increased recession risks in major overseas economies and heightened geopolitical uncertainties[3][17]

Core Viewpoint - The April economic data indicates a mixed performance in China's economy, with strong industrial production and consumption, but a decline in investment and real estate sectors [1][13]. Demand Side - April's external demand faced challenges due to reciprocal tariffs, leading to a significant drop in exports to the US; however, transshipment trade helped maintain export resilience [1][2]. - Internal demand showed a decline in both investment and consumption, although consumption remained at a high level; investment was dragged down by the real estate and manufacturing sectors [1][7]. Production Side - Industrial production maintained a high level, with April's industrial value-added growth rate dropping to 6.1%, supported by equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing [3][5]. - The service sector's production index slightly decreased, but still benefited from low base effects and consumption recovery [3]. Investment Trends - National fixed asset investment growth rate fell by 0.8 percentage points to 3.5%, with real estate investment continuing to decline significantly [7]. - High-tech industry investments performed well, particularly in information services and computer manufacturing, with year-on-year growth rates of 40.6% and 28.9% respectively [7]. Consumption Patterns - Retail sales growth rate decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 5.1%, while service retail sales showed an upward trend, particularly in tourism-related sectors [9]. - Essential consumer goods saw a decline in growth, while sectors benefiting from trade-in programs performed strongly [9]. Real Estate Market - Real estate sales area growth rate worsened to -2.1%, with new construction area also declining significantly [11]. - Despite the drop in sales volume, housing prices continued to rise, with the decline in new and second-hand housing prices narrowing [11]. Employment and External Factors - The unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1%, indicating a steady employment situation despite external challenges [13]. - Future export performance may exceed expectations due to potential European recovery, although this could lead to a more cautious domestic policy response [13].

Group 1 - The market experienced a high opening followed by a decline, with the military and chemical sectors leading the gains, indicating accelerated rotation of themes [1][2][3] - The major indices showed a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.8% to 3342 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index increased by 0.22% and 0.51% respectively [1] - The total trading volume reached 1.47 trillion, an increase of 132.1 billion from the previous day, reflecting heightened market activity and intensified capital competition [1] Group 2 - The military sector saw significant gains due to the escalation of the India-Pakistan conflict and the accelerated commercialization of the domestic C919 aircraft, with stocks like Chenxi Aviation hitting the daily limit [2] - The chemical sector reached new highs, driven by price increase expectations for titanium dioxide and fertilizers, along with improved performance and sustained institutional inflows [3][4] - Other sectors such as robotics and new materials also showed strong performance, with stocks like Quanzhi Co. and Zhongxin Fluorine Material gaining attention [5][6] Group 3 - There was a noticeable decline in AI-related stocks, with concepts like Kimi and Nvidia experiencing significant drops, indicating a shift in market focus [7][8] - The overall sentiment in the market showed a preference for trending stocks, with notable interest in stocks that have shown consecutive gains [9] - The technology sector faced challenges, with the market reacting negatively to financial policies aimed at stabilizing expectations, leading to a mixed performance in tech stocks [11][12]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed a slight pullback after a strong opening, with the Sci-Tech Chip Index rising by 0.38%, driven by significant gains in stocks like Yuanjie Technology, which increased by over 7% [1] - The Sci-Tech Chip ETF (588200) also saw a rise of 0.38%, with a trading volume exceeding 700 million yuan and a turnover rate of nearly 3%, indicating active trading and a slight premium in the market [1][2] - There was a net inflow of over 310 million yuan into the Sci-Tech Chip ETF (588200) the previous day, reflecting strong investor interest in semiconductor-related stocks [2] Group 2 - The Financial Regulatory Administration announced eight new policies aimed at increasing market liquidity, including measures to support small and private enterprises, and enhance investment in technology companies [2] - According to Everbright Securities, the A-share market is expected to trend upwards due to ongoing policy support and the inflow of medium to long-term funds, with current valuations near the average since 2010 [3] - Guosheng Securities highlighted that the focus for May should be on sectors with independent industrial trends, such as domestic AI, smart vehicles, and robotics, while also considering policies related to domestic consumption and real estate [3]